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Over one month into government shutdown and no end in sight – but predictions run rampant

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Over one month into government shutdown and no end in sight – but predictions run rampant

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It is said that everyone’s a critic.

But when it comes to the government shutdown, everyone’s an oracle.

Especially when trying to determine when it might end.

“[Democrats] are waiting to elect [Zohran] Mamdani, the communist, soon-to-be mayor of New York. And then I believe things will go back into business as normal,” said Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., on FOX Business. “If we don’t reopen this week, then I believe it’ll happen at some time shortly before Thanksgiving.”

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GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN KNOWLEDGE: GAMING OUT ITS POTENTIAL END

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., also offered her own prediction.

“I believe that this week could be the week,” said Capito on FOX Business.

But Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, wasn’t so sure.

“I don’t know what the predictions are based on,” said Cornyn on Fox. “We keep looking for some rational behavior on the part of the Democrats who shut down the government. But it was a dumb idea to start with. And it hasn’t gotten any better since.”

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Everyone is now searching for a flicker of hope. A glimmer of reason as to why the government shutdown won’t deepen.

The Statue of Freedom atop the U.S. Capitol is seen on day 23 of the government shutdown, Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

But all this week represents is another opportunity. There have been multiple inflection points along the way, but nothing has quite yielded the same opportunity to end the shutdown as this week.

Yes, emergency food aid for the nation’s neediest expired on Saturday. Air traffic is growing worse by the hour. Healthcare premiums formally spiked on Saturday – which is why Democrats balked at funding the government in the first place.

But none of those developments have truly forced the sides back to the negotiating table. That’s why some have settled on Tuesday’s elections as a potential turning point.

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SHUTDOWN SEEN FROM THE PULPIT: INCHING ALONG ON A WING AND A PRAYER

Mamdani is the odds-on favorite to become the next mayor of New York City. Republicans are now projecting that the election is why the Democrats haven’t folded on government funding. They believe that certain election results – a win by the progressive Mamdani in New York coupled with what Republicans hope are losses by the moderate former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., running for Virginia governor and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., running for New Jersey governor – will prod Democrats into action. Republicans believe such results will compel Democrats to see their party as out of touch.

“I hope the election tomorrow is a change. A sea change in all this,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. “I hope that after everybody votes and they go in their room and they make the calculation that, well, ‘maybe, maybe we won’t have to hold that line anymore.’”

Republicans know the shutdown will end eventually. But if it ends soon, they want to shape the narrative that “Democrats caved because of the election results.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., expressed hope that Tuesday’s elections will be “a change.” (Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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Consider that Republicans have been forecasting the shutdown’s end for five weeks now.

“The cracks started to appear in the Democrat base,” proclaimed Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., on October 1.

Republicans believed Democrats would cave in a matter of days once the shutdown started.

It never happened.

SENATE REPUBLICANS PLOT LONGER-TERM FUNDING BILL AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES

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The GOP then argued that Democrats were merely holding out until the “No Kings” rallies on October 19 concluded — that Democrats would have “shown they were fighting” by then.

“They won’t be able to reopen the government until after that rally,” forecast Johnson on Fox on October 10.

There was nothing of the sort.

Then the GOP amended its argument that Democrats were on the verge of giving in because federal workers were missing paychecks. Especially air traffic controllers.

“We’re getting to where the consequences of this are very real,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., on Fox on October 23.

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That theory also fizzled.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., noted that “we’re getting to where the consequences of this are very real.” (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)

Republicans then pinned their hopes on the next missed paycheck, coupled with flight delays, expiring SNAP benefits, and spiking health premiums on November 1.

“The Democrats will collapse entirely,” predicted Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on Fox over the weekend.

But nothing changed.

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“We will not support a partisan, Republican spending bill that continues to gut the healthcare of the American people,” proclaimed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “That’s been our position. Week after week after week – and it will continue to be our position.” 

Say what you will about the Democrats’ strategy. But they haven’t folded.

TRUMP’S ‘NUCLEAR’ DEMAND NOT LANDING FOR SENATE REPUBLICANS AMID SHUTDOWN

Keep in mind that Republicans have tried in vain to convince Senate Democrats since mid-September to accept a GOP spending plan which would only fund the government through November 21.

“It is now becoming close to a moot issue,” said Cornyn. “What are they going to do after, I don’t know.”

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Thune proclaimed that the 21st is now a date which is “lost.”

Yours truly asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., what was the “drop-dead date” for Republicans to make another play call.

“With November 21st out there, it’s not a lot [of] time to resolve differences,” replied Scalise.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., was asked about the “drop-dead date” for another play call by his party. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

There’s now chatter about Republicans crafting another short-term spending bill through January.

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“The longer sort of runway, the better,” said Thune. “I’m certainly listening to our colleagues and trying to figure out kind of where that landing spot would be.”

But there’s no guarantee either chamber could pass such a measure — especially if Democrats’ core demands remain unaddressed.

In his daily prayer to open the Senate session, Senate Chaplain Barry Black implied that the lawmakers needed help solving the crisis – simply because they were no closer to a resolution than they were in late September.

“Inspire our lawmakers to unite in putting out the fire of this government shutdown that has already burned far more than anticipated,” prayed Black.

It’s too unpredictable to make a sound prediction about when the shutdown will end. But if you predict enough things, you’ll eventually get something right.

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So how about this prediction:

The shutdown will end.

Eventually.

And that’s truly the only safe prediction anyone can make right now.

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Bessent flips script on Dem senator with reminder about his son’s past ties to Epstein

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Bessent flips script on Dem senator with reminder about his son’s past ties to Epstein

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Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., suddenly found himself on the defensive at a budget hearing on Wednesday when, amid levying accusations of the Trump administration’s “corrupt” dealings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fired back by bringing Wyden’s son’s investments into the exchange.

“We would like to hear what Adam Wyden and Jeffrey Epstein talked about,” Bessent said, referring to unearthed emails drawing a connection between the senator’s son and the disgraced financier.

“Did your son and Jeffrey Epstein talk about pole dancing as he begged him for money?”

The moment continues the political fallout for the many names associated with Epstein that — despite not amounting to proof of wrongdoing — continue to prompt embarrassment and scandal at even the smallest mention.

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TOP FIERY MOMENTS AS DEMOCRATS CLASH WITH TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT IN CHAOTIC HILL HEARINGS

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, left, pictured along Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore, right. (Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Epstein, a former financier, died while in prison on charges of sex trafficking minors in 2019, leaving behind questions of whether he facilitated illegal sexual encounters for his vast network of rich and powerful figures.

Amid public demands for transparency on the matter, the Department of Justice released troves of documents on Epstein late last year, unveiling a slew of new names with all manner of ties to the infamous figure ranging from purely innocuous to alarming.

Among them, emails surfaced indicating that Adam Wyden, Ron Wyden’s son, went to Epstein, hoping to gain his support for a business venture.

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UNEARTHED EMAILS REVEAL DEM SENATOR’S SON WANTED EPSTEIN TO JOIN HIS FUND: ‘ENJOYED OUR CONVERSATION’

Sen. Ron Wyden leaves a Senate Democratic meeting at the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 3, 2025, as the federal government shuts down after Congress and the White House failed to reach a funding deal. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

“Jeffrey, I wanted to thank you for taking the time to meet with me. I thoroughly enjoyed our conversation and hope my passion and dedication for my business came through in the meeting. I live and breathe this business and take my returns, integrity and reputation quite seriously,” the younger Wyden said in an email in April 2016.

“I intensely appreciate like-minded individuals and would very much look forward to having you join us at the fund.”

The emails came after Epstein pleaded guilty to soliciting a minor for prostitution in Florida in 2008.

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It’s unclear what the business venture discussed by Adam Wyden and Epstein may have been or what, specifically, had been discussed in their conversations.

Even so, Bessent reminded viewers that the younger Wyden had a history of investing in off-color markets at Wednesday’s hearing.

DEMOCRATS ARE HAMMERING REPUBLICANS ON EPSTEIN, BUT ONE SENATOR BRUSHED OFF THE ISSUE YEARS AGO

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addresses a press conference in Rosenbad after trade talks between the U.S. and China concluded in Stockholm, Sweden, on July 29, 2025. (Magnus Lejhall/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images)

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Your son’s largest investment position was Rick’s Cabaret,” Bessent said, referring to a series of strip clubs.

Wyden, who has widely panned the Trump administration and its many officials for their own connections to Epstein, didn’t respond to Bessent’s jabs.

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Hilton and Becerra lead California’s unsettled governor’s race; Steyer faces elimination

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Hilton and Becerra lead California’s unsettled governor’s race; Steyer faces elimination

As election officials continued tallying ballots Wednesday, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra continued to lead in the unsettled race to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, with billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer hoping for a surge in late-arriving votes to push him into one of the top-two spots to advance to the November general election.

Hilton, a British immigrant and former Fox News commentator, told reporters outside the state Capitol in Sacramento Wednesday morning that he was “very encouraged” by the latest results, though he stopped short of declaring victory.

“It does look as if change is coming to California, and that is good news for everyone, every small business, every working family, everyone who wants to see our state set back on track,” he said.

Becerra and Steyer did not hold public events as of Wednesday afternoon.

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Election data analyst Paul Mitchell said it would be nearly mathematically impossible for Steyer to close the gap.

“As we start to get more data, the runway is going to get shorter and shorter,” he said.

He said Steyer, to finish in the top two in the primary, would have to get about 30% of the remaining uncounted votes while Becerra would need to be limited to 15%. The self-funded billionaire has “a very high hill to overcome, and the challenge gets steeper and steeper as we get more data from the counties,” Mitchell said.

Once mired near the bottom of a crowded pack of Democrats in opinion polls, Becerra, a former Biden administration cabinet member, rocketed ahead of his rival candidates after former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race in April amid allegations of sexual assault and misconduct. The scandal triggered an upswing of voter interest in California’s once sluggish governor’s race and in Becerra, who seized the moment.

“Here in Hollywood’s hometown, we love a good underdog story,” Becerra told cheering supporters at his election night party at La Plaza de Cultura y Artes in downtown Los Angeles.

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Becerra spoke about his Mexican immigrant parents and becoming the first in his family to attend college. Though a longtime California politician, Becerra said that his campaign for governor was outspent and that he faced calls to drop out of the race.

“The underdog stayed in the fight,” he said. “Like my parents, I never gave up. … Never stopped believing in the beacon-light goodness of California and thankfully, neither did you.”

Steyer, who spent more than $216 million of his wealth on the race, has not conceded defeat.

His campaign manager, Heather Hargreaves, wrote in a letter to supporters Wednesday that “we’re going to give democracy time to work. County election officials are still counting ballots and don’t expect to know how many people voted in total until” Thursday, when officials are required to report the estimated number ballots left to process.

The billionaire former hedge fund owner campaigned against the corporate and special interests that have a powerful presence in Sacramento and often spend heavily in elections, including this year against Steyer.

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Billionaires “do everything they can to hoard their wealth and avoid paying taxes, and we see corporations continue to rig the system for themselves — raising your prices to juice their profits. Screw that,” Steyer said at his election watch party at the Regency Ballroom in San Francisco.

Other candidates in the race included Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Democrats including former Rep. Katie Porter, San José Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond.

Villaraigosa, Mahan and Porter conceded the race Tuesday night.

California’s 2026 race for governor started slow but ended with a flourish, including the demise of a scandal-ridden Democratic favorite, the anointing of a Republican by Trump and Becerra’s unexpected rise from the depths of the candidate field.

Unlike gubernatorial elections in the last quarter of a century, this year’s race lacked a clear crowd-pleasing front-runner able to win over voters, such as movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger or Jerry Brown, a sage of the California electorate and scion of a storied political family. But it unfolded at a time when the state’s residents are overwhelmed by high housing costs, steep gas prices and overall unaffordability that threatens the “California dream” that once drew millions of people to the state.

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“Normal people are not living and breathing politics on a daily basis,” said Tim Rosales, a strategist who ran Republican John Cox’s unsuccessful 2018 gubernatorial campaign. In today’s information-saturated environment, Rosales said, the race and its roster of “extremely milquetoast candidates” didn’t break through until the Swalwell scandal grabbed voters’ attention.

The 2026 gubernatorial primary has been one of the most unpredictable and expensive in decades and a race that was shaped early on by a number of heavyweight Democrats staying on the sidelines.

Though supporters urged them to run, former Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen. Alex Padilla and Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta passed on the race. It was in a state of limbo for months last year as Harris, one of the state’s most high-profile politicians, weighed whether to jump in.

“I don’t ever recall a playing field that looks like this one. Usually there’s a clear front-runner,” said veteran Democratic strategist Darry Sragow. “It’s easy to say that it reflects a lack of talent [but] that’s absolutely not true. Almost any of the candidates running could make a good governor.”

Still, candidates struggled for months to break through to voters.

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In February, polls showed the crowded field of Democrats splitting liberal voters and opening a statistical possibility that the party would be boxed out of November under California’s open, top-two primary, which places all candidates on the same ballot. Only the first- and second-place finishers in the primary advance to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation.

Just when Swalwell appeared on the cusp of becoming the Democratic front-runner the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN published allegations that he sexually assaulted a former staffer and acted inappropriately with other women. Swalwell suspended his campaign.

It was Becerra who benefited the most. In less than two months, he vaulted from polling in the low single digits to the top of the field of candidates, according to surveys conducted by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies that were co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

“Becerra caught lightning in a bottle,” Rosales said. “It could have easily gone to any of the other candidates,” but many had baggage. Videos of Porter losing her temper hurt her image, the source of Steyer’s wealth and his unbridled campaign spending weighed on voters’ minds, and Villaraigosa and Mahan were “more centrist than what most Democrats wanted, and so Xavier Becerra was really the safe choice,” Rosales said.

Before Democratic voters began to narrow down their choices, Trump endorsed Hilton in early April. It helped the former Fox News host break away from Bianco, his main GOP rival.

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In the days before the primary election, the race solidified into a three-way contest involving Becerra, Steyer and Hilton.

Steyer stepped up his fight in the remaining days, seeking to squeeze into one of the top two spots by battering Becerra in ads and at campaign rallies as a politician propped up by corporate special interests.

“We cannot afford to have a governor who’s been bought off by Big Oil. Period,” he said at a Sunday rally in Los Angeles.

Corporations, along with labor unions and interest groups including the California Assn. of Realtors, had spent more than $18.7 million to boost Becerra, according to the election spending tracker California Target Book. Many of the same groups also gave money to a committee intended to attack Steyer.

As the election neared, Becerra sharpened his attacks against Steyer, calling the billionaire a “liar” and accusing him of trying to buy the election.

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“We are not going to let a billionaire or Trump’s handpicked candidate take over this state,” he said during a Sunday rally in Long Beach.

If Becerra faces off with Hilton in November he’ll have a distinct advantage. Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 in left-leaning California.

Winning the general election would make the 68-year-old Becerra the first elected Latino governor of California. At roughly 40% of the state’s population, Latinos are California’s largest ethnic group but have not been represented in the governor’s mansion since 1875, when then-Lt. Gov. Romualdo Pacheco was elevated to fill a 10-month vacancy.

Times staff writers Iris Kwok, Susanne Rust, Andrew Khouri and Christopher Goffard contributed to this report.

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Video: Steve Hilton Holds Slim Early Lead in California Governor’s Race

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Video: Steve Hilton Holds Slim Early Lead in California Governor’s Race

new video loaded: Steve Hilton Holds Slim Early Lead in California Governor’s Race

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Steve Hilton Holds Slim Early Lead in California Governor’s Race

Steve Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host, held a narrow lead in early votes over two Democratic opponents in California’s nonpartisan primary for governor. The top two candidates will advance to the general election in November.

“Change is coming to California, and it’s long overdue. I want to just say something from my heart to every single person who’s voted for me. We’re not — We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good.” [cheers] “Tonight, the people of the great state of California, in the greatest nation on earth, have spoken. [cheers] Loudly and proudly. [cheers] And while I take nothing for granted, there are lots of ballots left to be counted, it appears that we are on track to advance to November.” [cheers] “It might take some time to figure out where this is going. We’re going to wait until every ballot is counted. We’re going to give democracy a time to work, and we know we finished really strong.” [cheers]

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Steve Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host, held a narrow lead in early votes over two Democratic opponents in California’s nonpartisan primary for governor. The top two candidates will advance to the general election in November.

By Axel Boada

June 3, 2026

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