Politics
Column: Polls get it right most of the time. Here's what to be wary of
Without polls, you can’t understand politics; with them, you can misunderstand a lot.
With both major party presidential nominations sewn up, we’re deep into the season in which fretting over polls can become an obsession. That’s especially true this year, as former President Trump holds a small but persistent edge over President Biden in most national and swing-state surveys.
That’s led many Democrats to search deep into the innards of polls in an often self-deluding search for error.
The fact is, polls continue to get election results right the vast majority of the time. They’re also an indispensable tool for democracy — informing residents of a vast and varied nation what their fellow Americans believe.
At the same time, errors do exist, often involving either problems collecting data or troubles interpreting it.
This week, let’s examine a couple of examples and take a look at how L.A. Times polls did this primary season.
A Holocaust myth?
In December, the Economist published a startling poll finding: “One in five young Americans thinks the Holocaust is a myth,” the headline said.
Fortunately for the country, although perhaps not for the publication, it’s the poll finding that may have been mythical.
In January, the nonpartisan Pew Research Center set out to see if it could replicate the finding. They couldn’t. Pew asked the same question the Economist poll asked and found that the share of Americans ages 18-29 who said the Holocaust was a myth was not 20%, but 3%.
What’s going on?
The problem isn’t a bad pollster: YouGov, which does the surveys for the Economist, is among the country’s most highly regarded polling organizations. But the methodology YouGov uses, known in the polling world as opt-in panels, can be victimized by bogus respondents. That may have been the case here.
Panel surveys are a way to solve a big problem pollsters face: Very few people these days will answer phone calls from unknown numbers, making traditional phone-based surveys extremely hard to carry out and very expensive.
Rather than randomly call phone numbers, polling organizations can solicit thousands of people who will agree to take surveys, usually in return for a small payment. For each survey, the pollsters select people from the panel to make up a sample that’s representative of the overall population.
Some people join simply for the money, however, then may speed through, answering questions more or less at random. Previous research by Pew has found that such bogus respondents most often claim to belong to groups that are hard to recruit, including young people and Latino voters.
Pollsters have found evidence of organized efforts to infiltrate panels, sometimes involving “multiple registrations from people who are outside the U.S.,” Douglas Rivers, the chief scientist at YouGov and a political science professor at Stanford, wrote in an email. Those could be efforts to bolster particular causes or candidates or, more often, schemes to make money by collecting small sums over and over again.
“We have a whole host of procedures to screen out these panelists,” Rivers wrote, adding that the firm was continuing to analyze what happened with the Holocaust question.
On polls of close elections, bogus respondents answering at random will usually “more or less cancel each other out,” said Andrew Mercer, senior research methodologist at Pew.
“But for something that’s very rare, like Holocaust denial,” random responses will produce error that is all on one side. “It’s going to end up inflating the incidence,” he said.
In previous research for example, Pew found that 12% of respondents in opt-in survey panels who said they were under 30 also claimed that they were licensed to operate a nuclear submarine.
The lesson here is an old one, popularized by the late astronomer Carl Sagan: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” If a poll result seems just too startling to be true, there’s a good chance it isn’t.
Leaping to conclusions
A second category of potential problems doesn’t involve the data so much as the way people, especially us journalists, interpret them — drawing definitive conclusions from less than definitive numbers.
Consider the question of how much progress Republicans are making among Black and Latino voters.
There’s no question, as I’ve previously written, that Republicans gained ground between 2016 and 2020, especially among Latino voters who already identified as conservatives. There was also smaller movement toward the GOP among Black voters.
Has that trend continued? Some recent surveys, including the widely cited New York Times/Siena College poll, indicate it may have accelerated. Biden has hemorrhaged support among younger Black and Latino voters, that poll has found.
In a recent article that drew a lot of attention, John Burn-Murdoch, the chief data journalist for the Financial Times, stitched together data from several different types of polls to declare that “American politics is in the midst of a racial realignment.”
The response from many political scientists and other analysts was, in effect, “Not so fast.”
Pre-election surveys can tell you what potential voters are thinking today, but comparing them with past election returns is dicey, they noted.
If the actual results in 2024 track what the New York Times/Siena polls are currently finding, “fine, let’s talk racial realignment,” said Vanderbilt University political science professor John Sides. Until then, however, “we have to wait and see.”
How we did
Our UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times polls had a notably good year predicting elections.
The final poll before this year’s primary showed, for example, that Proposition 1, the $6.4-billion mental health bond measure backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, had support from 50% of likely voters.
As of Thursday morning, that was almost exactly where the “yes” vote stood — 50.2% — with almost 90% of the state’s votes counted.
The poll also correctly forecast that Democratic Rep. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank and Republican former Dodgers player Steve Garvey would be the top two finishers in the primary for Senate, with Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine in third place.
In the survey, taken about a week before the election, 9% of voters remained undecided. Among those who had made up their minds, Garvey had 30% of the vote, Schiff 27% and Porter 21%, the poll found.
The poll appears to have been very close on Garvey’s number — with about 800,000 votes still to count, he has 32%, well within the poll’s estimated margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction. The survey slightly understated backing for Schiff, who also has 32%, and overstated support for Porter, who currently sits at 15%. That could mean that final group of undecided voters broke for Schiff.
That level of accuracy is not uncommon. In the 2022 midterms, for example, polls by nonpartisan groups, universities and media organizations were extremely accurate.
There’s a takeaway in all this for people interested in politics, especially in a hotly contested election year: Don’t over-focus on any individual poll, especially if it has a startling finding that hasn’t cropped up anywhere else. Be skeptical about sweeping conclusions about events that are still unfolding. And even, or maybe especially, when a poll shows your favored candidate trailing, take it for what it is — neither an oracle, nor a nefarious plot, but a snapshot in time.
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The U.S. military announced another deadly strike against a vessel that it alleges was involved in “narco-trafficking” efforts.
“On April 19, at the direction of #SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations,” U.S. Southern Command indicated in a post on X.
“Intelligence confirmed the vessel was transiting along known narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean and was engaged in narco-trafficking operations,” the post continued.
US MILITARY KILLS 2 SUSPECTED CARTEL OPERATIVES IN LATEST EASTERN PACIFIC LETHAL STRIKE, SOUTHCOM SAYS
The U.S. military announced that it killed three “narco-terrorists” in a strike in the Caribbean on Sunday, April 19, 2026. (@Soutcom via X)
SOUTHCOM indicated that the attack killed three men.
“Three male narco-terrorists were killed during this action. No U.S. military forces were harmed,” the post noted.
President Donald Trump’s administration has carried out dozens of deadly strikes against vessels of alleged “narco-terrorists.”
US MILITARY CONDUCTS MORE DEADLY STRIKES AGAINST VESSELS OF ALLEGED ‘NARCO-TERRORISTS’
Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Francis L. Donovan, nominee for commander of U.S. Southern Command, testifies during his Senate confirmatino hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 15, 2026. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)
In a completely different part of the world, amid ongoing tensions between America and Iran, the U.S. attacked an Iranian-flagged cargo ship on April 19.
“Guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) intercepted M/V Touska as it transited the north Arabian Sea at 17 knots enroute to Bandar Abbas, Iran. American forces issued multiple warnings and informed the Iranian-flagged vessel it was in violation of the U.S. blockade,” U.S. Central Command noted.
US SEIZES IRANIAN SHIP AFTER OPENING FIRE; PAKISTAN TALKS IN DOUBT
President Donald Trump on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, April 16, 2026. (Graeme Sloan/Sipa/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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“After Touska’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period, Spruance directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room. Spruance disabled Touska’s propulsion by firing several rounds from the destroyer’s 5-inch MK 45 Gun into Touska’s engine room. U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit later boarded the non-compliant vessel, which remains in U.S. custody,” CENTCOM noted.
SACRAMENTO — A month after a public uproar over a mama bear being euthanized after swiping at a resident in Monrovia, state lawmakers are considering mandating the use of nonlethal ways to help allow wildlife and humans to coexist.
Sen. Catherine Blakespear (D-Encinitas) said she believes the bear’s death, and the state’s decision to kill four wolves last year that were preying on cattle, raised public concern.
“That made everybody realize we have to do better here,” she told The Times on Thursday. “We need to recognize the importance of seeing ourselves, humans, as part of a larger ecosystem that includes animals and plants and our world and trying to protect it.”
Senate Bill 1135, introduced by Blakespear, would direct the California Department of Fish and Wildlife to create the Wildlife Coexistence Program, which would provide public education, offer technical assistance and maintain a statewide incident reporting system. It would help communities deploy nonlethal devices to deter predators, like barriers or noise and light machines.
At a legislative hearing on Tuesday, Blakespear told the Senate Committee on Natural Resources and Water that a three-year state initiative offering similar services was seeing positive results — until it was discontinued two years ago after funding ran dry. She said it was time to implement a permanent program.
“Human population growth, habitat loss and the growth of industry across California inevitably leads to interaction between humans and wildlife,” Blakespear told legislators. “No two animal species are the same and each has unique behavior patterns and territories. SB 1135 recognizes these differences and gives communities the tools to prevent conflict and respond when it occurs.”
The bill would also rename a state program that reimburses ranchers who lose livestock to wolves, calling it the Wolf-Livestock Coexistence and Compensation Program. It would require ranchers seeking compensation to show they were using nonlethal deterrents approved by the department.
Sen. Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield) stressed that life in rural areas is different than living in a city. She said some families and cattle ranchers have a genuine fear of predators.
“When these baby calves drop on the ground and then two wolves start ripping them apart, it’s not the prettiest thing you’ve ever witnessed,” said Grove, who abstained from voting on the measure. “These wolves are not puppies.”
More than 30 organizations are supporting the legislation, including the National Wildlife Federation, Defenders of Wildlife, California State Assn. of Counties, Animal Legal Defense Fund and Citizens for Los Angeles Wildlife.
The California Farm Bureau and the California Cattlemen’s Assn. are in opposition due to concerns over funding.
Last month, Blakespear sent a letter to the chair of the Senate Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review requesting $48.8 million to implement the legislation, with $25 million earmarked for addressing wolf encounters. Half of the money for wolf conflicts would go toward deterrents; the remainder would compensate ranchers for their losses.
Kirk Wilbur, vice president of government affairs cattlemen’s association, said the organization is concerned about that division of funding — especially if funding is reduced.
Wilbur told legislators Tuesday that the organization supports some aspects of the bill and was having productive conversations with Blakespear to address their concerns.
The bill ultimately passed the committee with a 5-to-1 vote and now heads to the Senate Committee on Appropriations.
Human wildlife conflicts have made headlines in California recently, with a bear refusing to leave a basement for weeks in Altadena and a mama bear dubbed Blondie crossing paths last month with a woman walking her dog in Monrovia.
Blondie swiped the woman’s leg, and was subsequently euthanized by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. Her two cubs were sent to the San Diego Humane Society’s Ramona Wildlife Center. The bear’s death upset many in the community, as thousands had signed a petition calling for other solutions, like relocation.
Deadly wildlife attacks on humans, however, are rare in California.
There have been six reported human fatalities from mountain lions since 1890, according to the state Fish and Wildlife Department. The agency recorded one human fatality from a coyote in 1981 and another fatality from a black bear in 2023. The department has no recorded human fatalities from gray wolves.
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The Justice Department is turning to former Trump attorney Joeseph diGenova to spearhead a probe into ex-CIA Director John Brennan and others over the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation, as the department reshuffles leadership of the sprawling inquiry.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has tapped diGenova to serve as counsel overseeing the matter, according to a New York Times report, putting a former Trump attorney in a key role in the high-profile probe. A federal grand jury seated in Miami has been impaneled since late last year.
The Department of Justice did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
DOJ ACTIVELY PREPARING TO ISSUE GRAND JURY SUBPOENAS RELATING TO JOHN BRENNAN INVESTIGATION: SOURCES
Joseph diGenova represented President Donald Trump during special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)
DiGenova, a former U.S. attorney in Washington, D.C., who represented Trump during special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, has repeatedly accused Brennan of misconduct tied to the origins of the Russia probe—allegations that have not resulted in criminal charges.
He also said in a 2018 appearance on Fox News that Brennan colluded with the FBI and DOJ to frame Trump.
The origins of the Russia investigation have been the subject of ongoing scrutiny by Trump allies, who have argued that intelligence and law enforcement officials improperly launched the probe.
BRENNAN INDICTMENT COULD COME WITHIN ‘WEEKS’ AS PROSECUTORS REQUEST OFFICIAL TRANSCRIPTS
Joseph diGenova has previously said that ex-CIA chief John Brennan colluded with the FBI and DOJ to frame Trump. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)
DiGenova’s appointment follows the ouster of Maria Medetis Long, a national security prosecutor in the South Florida U.S. attorney’s office. She had been overseeing the inquiry, including a false statements probe related to Brennan and broader conspiracy-related investigations.
As the investigation continues, federal investigators have issued subpoenas seeking information related to intelligence assessments of Russian interference in the 2016 election.
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John Brennan has denied any wrongdoing related to the Russia investigation. (William B. Plowman/NBC/NBC NewsWire via Getty Images; Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Brennan has previously denied wrongdoing related to the Russia investigation and has defended the intelligence community’s assessment that Moscow interfered in the 2016 election.
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