Gary Sasse
| Guest columnist
RI Gov. Dan McKee discusses plans to eliminate tax on Social Security
He announced his plan to get rid of the tax on Social Security income at Edward King House Senior Center in Newport on March 16.
- Rhode Island reformed its tax code after 2009, improving its business tax climate ranking from 46th to 40th.
- Democratic gubernatorial candidates are now proposing to raise the top income tax rate from 5.99% to 8.99% for incomes over $1 million.
- Supporters of the tax increase believe it will have minimal impact on growth, while opponents fear it will harm state competitiveness.
- The author suggests key questions must be answered about the economic impact before implementing such a significant tax policy change.
In the 2009 State of the State address Governor Don Carcieri said he was “tired of people writing stories about Rhode Island being ‘tax hell’.” In response the governor convened a Tax Policy Strategic Workgroup. As state director of revenue, I chaired the Workgroup. We were charged with developing a tax strategy so that Rhode Island’s tax structure would be a competitive advantage in retaining jobs and recruiting businesses.
Over the next few legislative sessions, the state’s tax code was reformed. The top marginal income tax rate was reduced from 9.90 percent to 5.99 percent. As a quid pro quo itemization was eliminated, the standard deduction and personal exemptions were phased out for high-income filers, the alternative minimum tax was eliminated, tax brackets and exemptions were indexed to inflation, and the numbers of tax credits were reduced from 45 to 9.
The method of apportioning the corporate income tax was modernized, and the tax rate was reduced from nine percent to seven percent – the lowest rate in New England. The threshold of the estate tax deduction was doubled and indexed to inflation.
As a result, Rhode Island escaped the designation of having one of the ten worst tax climates for business. In 2011, when the General Assembly began addressing tax reform, the conservative Tax Foundation’s Business Tax Climate Index ranked the Ocean State’s tax climate 46th (5th worst). By 2025 it improved to 39th. This year Rhode Island ranks 40th.
Currently both Democratic gubernatorial candidates are proposing a tax policy “sea-change.” They are promoting legislation to impose an 8.99 percent rate on taxable incomes over $1 million, a 50 percent increase over the current rate of 5.99 percent.
Deciding the merits of this proposal should be based on the tenets of sound tax policy: equity, competitiveness, and transparency. Equity is achieved when no group carries a disproportionate share of the tax burden. Transparency is achieved when the system is user-friendly and efficiently administered.
The most difficult principle to measure is competitiveness. Economists have not always agreed on the effect tax burdens have on the economic decisions made by households and businesses.
Can a top marginal income tax rate be increased by 50 percent and not have a demonstrable impact on job growth and investments?
It will be challenging to resolve this question because the “peer reviewed research” supports different conclusions. Academic research through the 1960s generally found limited evidence that tax rate differentials influenced business growth and location decisions. In the 1980s, studies found the impact of tax burdens on private sector economic activity depended on specific circumstances. More recent empirical studies indicate tax changes do influence economic behavior. However, there are difference as to the degree of such influences.
Rhode Island’s business leaders opposed to the 50 percent increase in the top marginal tax rate point to state competitiveness rankings, potential out-migration of people and capital, fiscal volatility, and the impact on small business. Progressive proponents cite data suggesting top-rate increases rarely affect state-level growth, and high-income migration responses are marginal.
Given economic and international uncertainties, could the timing of income tax rate increase be a riverboat gamble with Rhode Island’s future economic well-being? An informed decision should provide data and analysis on the following threshold questions.
What is the forecasted impact of the millionaire’s tax on state GDP growth, employment, and revenue feedback effects?
Without doing harm, how high can the rate be set relative to competitor states? If the top marginal rate was increased by 15% compared to the 50%, how would the gamble be mitigated?
What will the new revenue be used for – education, infrastructure, housing, working families tax relief, or balancing the budget?
What are the costs and benefits of maintaining the status quo?
Will Rhode Island’s availability of skilled labor, preparedness for an artificial intelligence economy, and other amenities minimize any potential economic impacts of a 50 percent increase in the top income tax rate? Some states may have competitive advantages that could reduce the economic risks, while others may not.
Gary Sasse served as director of the R.I. Departments of Revenue and Administration.