KINGSTON, R.I. – Nov. 26, 2025 – The rush to find the perfect gifts and gather with loved ones during the holiday season has commenced. How businesses both locally and nationally will fare this holiday season, though, is a bit murky.

According to S&P Global, holiday sales are expected to grow year over year, but price increases to offset tariffs will account for most of that growth. Also, S&P predicts that holiday retail consumer spending will remain relatively flat, which poses challenges for retailers.

In speaking with Rhody Today about the upcoming holiday shopping season, Nina Eichacker, associate professor in the University of Rhode Island’s Department of Economics, expects Rhode Islanders will be more selective in how much shopping they do this year and where. She also notes the rise of online shopping could impact seasonal employment locally. 

Overall, do you feel the holiday economy is going to be strong this year, both locally and across the U.S.? 

Spending always rises during the holiday season, compared to the months before and after. According to its consumer survey, the National Retail Federation is expecting close to 187 million people to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, up from about 183 million in 2024. Nationally, sales are expected to rise approximately 4%. While projected spending is high, consumers expect to spend 1.3% less than they did last year ($890 per person compared to $902 per person). 

I expect that these trends will be similar in Rhode Island. In 2024, Rhode Islanders spent 3% more than they had in 2023. Rhode Island is a small state, so its annual spending is usually in the bottom fifth of the United States. Rhode Islanders, particularly those in vulnerable or volatile industries, will likely think hard about how much holiday shopping they commit to in 2025, and also what goods they decide to buy. 

What do you feel will be a major factor in the holiday economy flourishing in Rhode Island in 2025?

Rhode Islanders have been shifting more toward online shopping in recent years. Combined with higher prices on many goods due to tariffs, the rising cost of living, and economic uncertainty that has flowed from the government shutdown and the fact that we don’t know much about the state of the U.S. job market and other sources of economic uncertainty, I would expect that holiday shopping within Rhode Island is likely to be similar to national trends. 

However, there is a great deal of community support for local shopping across the state. Households who care to shop locally will most likely continue to make that a priority.

Retailers are expected to hire fewer seasonal workers this year than last year. What do you feel is contributing to this decreased need, the growth of online shopping notwithstanding? And, does this negatively impact the overall holiday economy in some way?

Apart from the growth of online shopping, I think that this reflects broader economic uncertainty. In the context of rising costs of living and higher prices due to tariffs, retailers are demonstrating that they believe the volume of shopping may not be as great, and it doesn’t make sense to have so many staff on hand. The Rhode Island state economy, as of August, appeared to be in a holding pattern – falling private sector jobs and the only source of employment growth appearing in state government. 

Because of the government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has been unable to gather data on employment trends at the national and state levels, so we may see an amplification of those job trends when we finally have the data.

How will retailers respond to potential challenges to help ensure businesses will profit during the holidays?

Retailers will generally do their best to introduce more sales and bundles to get shoppers in the door, such as by offering Black Friday deals earlier and for longer, to entice more shoppers into stores or onto webpages. 

Will spending on holiday travel remain steady, or do you expect that to scale back a bit?

NerdWallet expects that Americans are going to travel a lot this year and spend $311 million on flights and hotels—or $2,586 per person—which is up nearly $260 per person from last year. Given the federal government shutdown and the prolonged period of air travel delays, cancellations, and complications, the potential for more complications exists. 

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy argues that travel should proceed as normal. It’s worth noting that many Americans canceled or altered their plans in anticipation of a prolonged shutdown, which could mean lower-than-usual fares and potentially a bit more traffic on the roads.

Shut the program down.

Not for a game or two. For a year. Maybe more.

In college sports, they used to call it a “death penalty,” but you can call it anything you want. A sports death penalty, an administrative guillotine, a full-season wipeout.

Real repercussions.

There should be no benefit of the doubt given when a teenager uses a belt to heinously whip a kid with special needs while his fellow bullies stand by and watch.

There should be no comeback when a group of football players lock a Jewish freshman in the bathroom and spray Lysol through a grate in the door, possibly to mimic a gas chamber.

The former happened in Newport, R.I., the latter in Smithfield, R.I. But these incidents could have occurred in Everytown, USA.

Schools should be imposing consequences that are swift, consistent, and unmistakably serious — something we’re glaringly bad at in America. And if the schools won’t do it, state leaders should.

The Rhode Island Department of Education and the Rhode Island Interscholastic League should work with state lawmakers to adopt a true zero-tolerance policy that results in a team’s season automatically being canceled if student athletes are caught behaving like the football players in Rogers High School in Newport, or the ones at Smithfield High School.

The policy should be designed to scare the daylights out of students. And every single one of them should have to acknowledge, even sign, the policy before they’re allowed to play. If you act like a jerk – or worse, a criminal – you and your whole team will be penalized, and everyone at the school will know it’s your fault.

At the college level, the NCAA imposed a sports death penalty on the football team at Southern Methodist University in 1987 for repeatedly paying players under the table over several years. The team’s entire season was canceled, and the president of the university was so angry that he also canceled the 1988 season, too.

In Rhode Island, the players’ actions in both cases were far more heinous. The incidents were separate and different, but the penalties deserve to be the same. Because cruelty shouldn’t be graded on a curve.

In Newport, where the student with special needs was whipped, no one is accused of hazing. It was assault. Police say they believe the student was assaulted on at least two separate occasions, and a nauseating video depicting one of these incidents spread like wildfire on social media. Four teenagers are now facing charges in connection with the incident on the video.

To her credit, Superintendent Colleen Jermain acted swiftly, and canceled the remainder of the football team’s season – including a junior varsity game that was set for Thanksgiving. The Newport School Committee is holding a special meeting Wednesday night to discuss the incident and the actions taken.

Leaders in Smithfield were far less courageous – and less transparent.

Though their actions were not considered assault, several players on Smithfield High School’s football team were initially barred from participating in the rest of the season after an investigation into reported hazing and antisemitic behavior, but they were reinstated after just one week.

Now some of their parents have filed a complaint with the state Education Department, denying the students did anything antisemitic and claiming their privacy rights were violated.

The message: We swear, our kids don’t hate Jews. They just like picking on freshmen!

This is precisely why the state needs to intervene. Punishment needs to be doled out fairly and consistently across all districts, and it certainly shouldn’t be left in the hands of principals and coaches.

There’s just too much of a possibility of the old, “but we might be able to beat Bishop Hendricken this year” mentality, where good players who do bad things get a pass so that the team can notch a win.

A statewide standard removes the temptation to look the other way.

Hazing doesn’t just involve football players. There has been an alarming number of hazing incidents in Rhode Island in the last couple of years.

According to the Education Department, 13 students were suspended from school in the 2023-24 school year for incidents classified as hazing, and that number grew to 19 last school year.

The point: These aren’t once-in-a-blue-moon incidents. They’re trends, and trends demand policy, not PR statements.

Even with the harshest possible punishment policy, there will always be teenagers who make irrational, bad decisions. As WPRO radio’s Matt Allen suggested this week, the idea of punishing an entire team over the actions of a few morons might not sit well with everyone. Where’s the individual responsibility, he wondered.

But the current patchwork approach results in secrecy and inconsistency, without the deterrence. This is a moment in our state that demands a reaction.

And nothing changes locker room behavior faster than the threat of no locker room at all.

Dan McGowan can be reached at dan.mcgowan@globe.com. Follow him @danmcgowan.

Associated Press