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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer

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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer


John Baer is the Keystone State’s most recognized government and politics columnist. Sean Simmers | ssimmers@pennlive.com

We’re down to days and still don’t know who wins the state most say is most needed to win White House. It’s that kind of year.

Not because candidates are so good. But because neither one’s convincing a majority of Pennsylvanians that they’re good enough. That’s just how we see it. And have seen it.

Check this out. I looked at 70 Pennsylvania polls on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump (and, yeah, and I know you’re thinking, geez, get a life). But guess how many times either got above 50%?

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Remember, this is in the oh-so-split Keystone State, in polling from the start of the race — right after President Biden got out and backed Harris in July — to the dwindling days of the campaign.

Okay, you don’t have to guess. I’ll tell you. Harris topped 50% just four times. And not by much. She hit 51% in a Bloomberg Poll in August. Then, in September, 52% in a Boston-based MassINC poll, 51% in another Bloomberg Poll, and 51% in a Quinnipiac Poll.

Trump? Topped 50% only once. He got 51% in a September AtlasIntel Poll out of Sao Paulo, Brazil (I don’t know, maybe somebody said, `Just find me a good poll. I don’t care if it’s in South America!’).

The latest of the 70 polls were just before Trump’s Madison Square Garden “lovefest” last Sunday. So, they don’t reflect any impact a speaker calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” has on the state’s 620,000 eligible Hispanic voters. Nor any effect of Joe `that’s-not-what-I-meant’ Biden then calling Trump supporters “garbage.”

But of the 70 polls, all showing a tight race, 20 were ties, Harris led slightly in 32, Trump led slightly in 18. And the average of the last seven had Trump up, 48.1% to 47.7%. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows Trump 47%, Harris 46%. Or, as we say in the biz, a virtual tie possibly trending toward Trump.

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Now what? Well, now it’s what every election’s about, turnout. Who votes? How much of each candidate’s reliable base shows up? And what about the intangible, slippery, maybe-not-even-voting undecideds? I mean this in the sense of who votes Tuesday and by mail: 1.3 million mail-ins are in; about 2 million mail ballots were requested.

State polls point to candidates’ strongest support: for Harris, women, Blacks and college-educated voters aged 30-to-44 in Philadelphia and Allegheny County; for Trump, white men without college degrees, aged 45-to-64 in central and western counties. Generalizations, I know, and maybe over-stated. But what in politics isn’t?

Plus, this is a squirrely race. And speaking of squirrely, national Democratic guru James Carville, who made his bones in Pennsylvania, wrote in The New York Times he’s “certain” Harris wins. Meanwhile, national polling expert Nate Silver wrote in The Times on the same day he has a “hunch” Trump wins.

As for me, I’m not certain of anything. But I have a hunch. Since this is Pennsylvania – Land of Low Expectations — things won’t go smoothly. I hope I’m wrong.

But there’s mail-in ballot processing, which, thanks to the feeble minds writing our state laws, can’t begin until Election Day. That flaw, left unfixed by our Legislature for four years, could cause conspiracy-inspiring delayed results, as it did in 2020.

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State officials expect fewer mail-ins this year (no pandemic), and note county election boards got state grants for more personnel and new equipment to speed the process. We’ll see.

There’s also litigation over improperly filed mail-ins. The state Supreme Court recently ruled voters whose mail-ins are rejected for errors such as being undated can cast “provisional” ballots which can still count. State and national Republicans sought a stay of that court order pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

And this stuff we know about. Who knows what else lurks out there?

I keep wondering how history judges this election. U.S. voters chose wisely? U.S. voters chose poorly? Seems it’s up to Pennsylvania voters to write that history.

John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com

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Affordable Housing Centers of Pennsylvania Helps Homeowners Protect Their Investment Across Generations » NCRC

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Affordable Housing Centers of Pennsylvania Helps Homeowners Protect Their Investment Across Generations » NCRC


For the past 17 years, the Affordable Housing Centers of Pennsylvania (AHCOPA) has provided a range of programs designed to build wealth within low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. AHCOPA provides services to approximately 3,000 people each year via their pre-purchase, post-purchase and mortgage prevention counseling programs.

When Kenneth Bigos joined AHCOPA as their Executive Director in 2013, he set out to expand the organization’s offerings beyond first-time homeownership counseling services. He identified estate planning as an urgent need for the region’s LMI communities as well. 

A 2022 Consumer Reports survey found that 77% of Black and 82% of Hispanic Americans do not have a will in place, which is needed to ensure that their home investment continues to build generational wealth. Consequently, the state court steps in upon the owner’s passing to decide how assets will be distributed, with property not being able to be transferred to an heir until that lengthy process is complete. In Philadelphia alone, there are approximately 10,000 properties with titles that have not been legally settled. 

In response to this, AHCOPA launched the Will Power program in 2022 by leveraging existing relationships with pro-bono lawyers in the creation of wills and trusts for community members. The program has created an opportunity to serve a larger portion of Philadelphia’s population. 

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While the first-time homebuyer program initially attracted people in their mid-30s, Will Power participants are generally in their late 60s, prompting AHCOPA to think about what housing support looks like across an individual’s lifetime.

“Elderly households are more vulnerable,” Bigos said. “To reach these homeowners, we had to develop relationships with trusted agencies, such as senior centers, churches and other institutions that we would not typically work with in our first-time homebuyer program.”

As a result of that  work, AHCOPA marked a major milestone in October 2025: the signing of 1,000 wills. Thanks to the success of Will Power and the first-time homebuyer program, AHCOPA has solidified its reputation as the go-to financial advisor for working-class residents. 

Looking ahead, they are planning to add a new program designed to support people beyond the initial purchase of their home, which will include coaching to help owners develop their financial literacy. This would encompass how to build savings to buy a first home and avoid foreclosure in the event of a crisis.

For Bigos, NCRC membership is key to ensuring the success of these programs, especially in terms of organizing at the federal, state and local levels advocating for continued funding. 

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“Engaging with decision makers is very important and being an NCRC member has helped facilitate those relationships,” Bigos said. “Their support has been very impactful.”

 

Jesse Rhodes is a Contributing Writer.

Photo courtesy of the AHCOPA team.



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How gambling revenue helps Pennsylvania fire departments

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How gambling revenue helps Pennsylvania fire departments


It is hard to imagine that money spent and collected at casinos and in slot machines around the state can wind up being used at local volunteer fire departments throughout the commonwealth, but it’s true.

In Pennsylvania, a portion of the state’s gaming revenue is allocated to support fire departments and emergency management services to the tune of about $30 million each year.

Departments can apply for those funds through a series of state grants, and most departments say that the money from gaming is vital to help them pay for equipment, vehicles and even improvements to their buildings.

“This time we put in for a grant to finish our second floor of our facility here,” said Derry Township Fire Chief Mark Piantine.

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Piantine says that gambling revenue has purchased many things for his department in the past like swift water rescue boats as well as a new equipment washing station. Now he hopes that money can give his company a place to sleep when they are working long shifts in bad weather.

“The last storm we had, the Snowmageddon here a couple of weeks ago, we had people staying overnight,” Piantine said. “They were laying across the seats of the trucks and on the floor sleeping because our second floor is not finished.”

Piantine says every little bit helps both their department and other departments, because when it comes right down to it, running a fire department is expensive.

“When you buy a regular pair of gloves, you may pay $25 for them. We buy a pair of gloves, they’re $75 to $100,” said Piantine. “You can buy a pair of boots for $50, ours cost $600.”

Just a few miles away, in the city of Latrobe, Chief John Brasile says that while the city does a lot for them financially, gaming revenue helps a lot. It even helps them make payments on their rescue unit.

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“We have about a year’s worth of payments left on it,” Brasile said. “And we use our money for debt reductions on that truck.”

“And that’s essentially from gambling revenue?” Chris DeRose asked.

“Yes. It comes from the State Fire Commissioners’ Office,” Brasile said.

“When is that truck paid off?” DeRose asked.

“About this time next year,” Brasile replied. “And then we can use that money for other stuff then. We would like to get new rescue tools for that truck and they’re expensive.”

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The fire departments KDKA has spoken with about using state grant money from gambling revenue say that gambling money is great, but it is not a cure-all. And in fact, on Thursday night, the Latrobe Fire Department was holding yet another fundraising event to help them once again raise money for new fire equipment.



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Pennsylvania middle school employee wanted in Texas on child sex assault charges arrested

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Pennsylvania middle school employee wanted in Texas on child sex assault charges arrested



A Pennsylvania school district employee wanted in Texas on child sexual assault charges was arrested by U.S. Marshals on Thursday in Delaware County.

Michael Robinson, 43, was arrested around 7:30 a.m. Thursday in the 200 block of Windermere Avenue in Wayne, the U.S. Marshals Service said in a press release. He’s being held at the George W. Hill Correctional Facility and is awaiting extradition to Texas, according to the federal law enforcement agency.

U.S. Marshals said Robinson traveled to Tyler, Texas, in August 2024 to meet a minor under 15 years old whom he met online and allegedly sexually assaulted them over the course of a weekend.

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Robinson was indicted by the Smith County District Attorney’s Office in December 2025, the U.S. Marshals Service said.

Robinson worked as a paraprofessional at Radnor Township Middle School, the federal law enforcement agency said. CBS News Philadelphia reached out to Radnor Township School District for comment and is awaiting a response.



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