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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer

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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer


John Baer is the Keystone State’s most recognized government and politics columnist. Sean Simmers | ssimmers@pennlive.com

We’re down to days and still don’t know who wins the state most say is most needed to win White House. It’s that kind of year.

Not because candidates are so good. But because neither one’s convincing a majority of Pennsylvanians that they’re good enough. That’s just how we see it. And have seen it.

Check this out. I looked at 70 Pennsylvania polls on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump (and, yeah, and I know you’re thinking, geez, get a life). But guess how many times either got above 50%?

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Remember, this is in the oh-so-split Keystone State, in polling from the start of the race — right after President Biden got out and backed Harris in July — to the dwindling days of the campaign.

Okay, you don’t have to guess. I’ll tell you. Harris topped 50% just four times. And not by much. She hit 51% in a Bloomberg Poll in August. Then, in September, 52% in a Boston-based MassINC poll, 51% in another Bloomberg Poll, and 51% in a Quinnipiac Poll.

Trump? Topped 50% only once. He got 51% in a September AtlasIntel Poll out of Sao Paulo, Brazil (I don’t know, maybe somebody said, `Just find me a good poll. I don’t care if it’s in South America!’).

The latest of the 70 polls were just before Trump’s Madison Square Garden “lovefest” last Sunday. So, they don’t reflect any impact a speaker calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” has on the state’s 620,000 eligible Hispanic voters. Nor any effect of Joe `that’s-not-what-I-meant’ Biden then calling Trump supporters “garbage.”

But of the 70 polls, all showing a tight race, 20 were ties, Harris led slightly in 32, Trump led slightly in 18. And the average of the last seven had Trump up, 48.1% to 47.7%. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows Trump 47%, Harris 46%. Or, as we say in the biz, a virtual tie possibly trending toward Trump.

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Now what? Well, now it’s what every election’s about, turnout. Who votes? How much of each candidate’s reliable base shows up? And what about the intangible, slippery, maybe-not-even-voting undecideds? I mean this in the sense of who votes Tuesday and by mail: 1.3 million mail-ins are in; about 2 million mail ballots were requested.

State polls point to candidates’ strongest support: for Harris, women, Blacks and college-educated voters aged 30-to-44 in Philadelphia and Allegheny County; for Trump, white men without college degrees, aged 45-to-64 in central and western counties. Generalizations, I know, and maybe over-stated. But what in politics isn’t?

Plus, this is a squirrely race. And speaking of squirrely, national Democratic guru James Carville, who made his bones in Pennsylvania, wrote in The New York Times he’s “certain” Harris wins. Meanwhile, national polling expert Nate Silver wrote in The Times on the same day he has a “hunch” Trump wins.

As for me, I’m not certain of anything. But I have a hunch. Since this is Pennsylvania – Land of Low Expectations — things won’t go smoothly. I hope I’m wrong.

But there’s mail-in ballot processing, which, thanks to the feeble minds writing our state laws, can’t begin until Election Day. That flaw, left unfixed by our Legislature for four years, could cause conspiracy-inspiring delayed results, as it did in 2020.

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State officials expect fewer mail-ins this year (no pandemic), and note county election boards got state grants for more personnel and new equipment to speed the process. We’ll see.

There’s also litigation over improperly filed mail-ins. The state Supreme Court recently ruled voters whose mail-ins are rejected for errors such as being undated can cast “provisional” ballots which can still count. State and national Republicans sought a stay of that court order pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

And this stuff we know about. Who knows what else lurks out there?

I keep wondering how history judges this election. U.S. voters chose wisely? U.S. voters chose poorly? Seems it’s up to Pennsylvania voters to write that history.

John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com

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Pennsylvania

Mostly cloudy and breezy conditions on tap this evening

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Mostly cloudy and breezy conditions on tap this evening


We’re dropping into the 40s this evening, then bottoming out to the low 40s during the overnight hours. We’ll continue to be breezy through the night, which will make it feel a bit chillier out there. Find out our next best chance of rain in the full forecast!



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Bacteria In Toothpaste: What PA Customers Need To Know

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Bacteria In Toothpaste: What PA Customers Need To Know


PENNSYLVANIA— Any Pennsylvania residents who use Tom’s of Maine toothpaste and have noticed a strange taste or smell from the product aren’t alone, according to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration, which recently detailed how bacteria was found in some of the company’s products and black mold was discovered at a facility.

The agency this month issued a warning letter to Tom’s of Maine Inc. about its “significant violations” of manufacturing regulations for pharmaceuticals, and discussed a May inspection of the facility in Sanford, Maine.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a type of bacteria that can cause blood and lung infections, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was found from June 2021 to October 2022 in samples of water that was used to make Tom’s Simply White Clean Mint Paste, the letter stated. The water was also used for the final rinse in equipment cleaning.

Gram-negative cocco-bacilli Paracoccus yeei, which is associated with several infections, according to the Hartmann Science Center, was in a batch of the company’s Wicked Cool! Anticavity Toothpaste, the letter stated.

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Ralstonia insidiosa, a waterborne bacteria, according to the Journal of Medical Microbiology, was repeatedly found at water points of use at the facility, the letter stated.

“A black mold-like substance” was discovered within one foot of equipment that came into contact with products, according to the letter, which stated the substance was at the base of a hose reel and behind a water storage tank.

The company received about 400 complaints related to toothpaste odor, color and taste, including in relation to products for children, but the complaints were not investigated, the letter said.

“We have always tested finished goods before they leave our control, and we remain fully confident in the safety and quality of the toothpaste we make,” Tom’s of Maine said, according to News Center Maine. “In addition, we have engaged water specialists to evaluate our systems at Sanford, have implemented additional safeguards to ensure compliance with FDA standards, and our water testing shows no issues.”

In the federal administration’s letter, dated Nov. 5, the agency directed the company to provide multiple risk assessments, reserve sample test results from all unexpired batches, and a water system remediation plan, among other things. The administration requested a written response from Tom’s of Maine within 15 working days.

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With reporting by Anna Schier of Patch.



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How Philadelphia took care of its own through history

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How Philadelphia took care of its own through history


The Orphan Society was formed by a committee of wealthy Philadelphia women, notably Sarah Ralston and Rebecca Gratz, who each took the role of social reformer very seriously.

Gratz, the daughter of a wealthy Jewish merchant, also formed the Female Association for the Relief of Women and Children in Reduced Circumstances, the Female Hebrew Benevolent Society, and the Hebrew Sunday School. Gratz College in Elkins Park is named after her.

“She never married,” Barnes said. “She did things like put her money and her time toward doing that kind of public service.”

Ralston, the daughter of onetime Philadelphia mayor Matthew Clarkson, also formed the Indigent Widows and Single Women’s Society, which ultimately became the Sarah Ralston Foundation supporting elder care in Philadelphia. The historic mansion she built to house indigent widows still stands on the campus of the University of Pennsylvania, which is now its chief occupant.

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Women like Ralston and Gratz were part of the 19th-century Reform Movement that sought to undo some of the inhumane conditions brought about by the rapid industrialization of cities. Huge numbers of people from rural America and foreign countries came into urban cities for factory work, and many fell into poverty, alcoholism, and prostitution.

“These are not new problems, but on a much larger scale than they ever were,” Barnes said. “It was just kind of in the zeitgeist in the mid- and later-1800s to say, ‘We’ve got to address all these problems.”

The reform organizations could be highly selective and impose a heavy dose of 19th-century moralism. The Indigent Widows and Single Women’s Society, for example, only selected white women from upper-class backgrounds whose fortunes had turned, rejecting women who were in poor health, “fiery-tempered,” or in one case, simply “ordinary.”



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