The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.5, a slight gain for Trump since Monday, when Harris led by 48.6–47.4. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

In Silver’s averages, Trump has a 0.6-point lead in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), up from 0.3 on Monday. Trump has slightly larger leads of one to two points in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11). Harris is narrowly ahead by 0.1 point in Nevada (six) and about one point ahead in Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (ten).

If current polls are exactly right, Trump wins the Electoral College by 281–257. Not making Pennsylvania’s popular governor Josh Shapiro her running mate could be Harris’ biggest mistake.

In Silver’s model, Trump has a 54% chance to win the Electoral College, slightly higher than 53% on Monday. There’s a 29% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 51% win probability.

Without a major event, there isn’t likely to be much change in the polls before the election, but a polling error where one candidate overperforms their polls could still occur. Silver’s model gives Trump a 22% probability of sweeping the seven swing states and Harris a 12.5% probability.

I wrote about the US election for The Poll Bludger yesterday, and also covered three Canadian provincial elections and Japan’s conservative LDP, which has governed almost continuously since 1955, losing its majority at an election last Sunday.

Biden a drag on Harris and favourability ratings

Joe Biden remains unpopular with a net -16.5 approval in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate, with 55.8% disapproving and 39.3% approving. As Harris is the incumbent party’s candidate, an unpopular president is a key reason for Trump’s edge.

Biden’s remarks on Tuesday, in which he seemed to call Trump supporters “garbage”, resembled Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” in the 2016 presidential campaign. This won’t help Harris.

Biden is almost 82, Trump is 78 and Harris is 60. Trump’s age should be a factor in this election that favours Harris, but Silver said on October 19 that Democrats spent so much time defending Biden before he withdrew on July 21 that it’s now difficult for them to attack Trump’s age without seeming hypocritical.

Harris’ net favourability in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate is -1.5, with 47.8% unfavourable and 46.3% favourable. Her net favourability peaked at +1 in late September. Trump’s net favourability is -8.5 with 52.1% unfavourable and 43.6% favourable; his ratings have improved a little in the last two weeks.

While Harris is more likeable than Trump, that’s not reflected in head to head polls. Silver said on October 23 that Trump’s campaign is promoting him as not-nice, but on your side, and as someone who will get things done. They argue Harris’ campaign lacks clear policies.

Harris’ running mate Tim Walz is at +2.6 net favourable, while Trump’s running mate JD Vance is at -6.9 net favourable. In the past few weeks, Vance’s ratings have improved slightly while Walz’s have dropped back.

Congressional elections

I last wrote about the elections for the House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election on October 14. The House has 435 single-member seats that are apportioned to states on a population basis, while there are two senators for each of the 50 states.

The House only has a two-year term, so the last House election was at the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans won the House by 222–213 over Democrats. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 46.2–46.1 lead over Republicans, a drop for Democrats from a 47.1–45.9 Democratic lead on October 14.

Senators have six-year terms, with one-third up for election every two years. Democrats and aligned independents currently have a 51–49 Senate majority, but they are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including seats in three states Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

West Virginia is a certain Republican gain after the retirement of former Democratic (now independent) Senator Joe Manchin at this election. Republicans have taken a 5.4-point lead in Montana in the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate, while Democrats are just 1.6 points ahead in Ohio.

Republicans are being challenged by independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska, and he trails Republican Deb Fischer by 2.3 points. Democrats did not contest to avoid splitting the vote. In Democratic-held Wisconsin, Democrats lead by 2.1 points, while other incumbents are ahead by at least three points.

If Republicans gain West Virginia and Montana, but lose Nebraska to Osborn, and no other seats change hands, Republicans would have a 50–49 lead in the Senate. If Harris wins the presidency, Osborn would be the decisive vote as a Senate tie can be broken by the vice president, who would be Walz. This is the rosiest plausible scenario for Democrats.

The FiveThirtyEight congressional forecasts give Republicans a 53% chance of retaining control of the House, so it’s effectively a toss-up like the presidency. But Republicans have an 89% chance to gain control of the Senate.

WASHINGTON ― Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leads Republican rival Donald Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, and is tied with the former president in Pennsylvania, according to new CNN polls of the three so-called “blue wall” Rust Belt states that could decide next week’s election.

In Michigan, Harris leads Trump 48%-43% among the state’s likely voters, while Harris is ahead of the former president 51%-45% in Wisconsin, the polls released Wednesday found. Both leads are outside the surveys’ margins of errors. Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania at 48% apiece, a third CNN poll found.

The polls were conducted Oct. 23 to 28. The Pennsylvania and Michigan polls have margins of errors of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, and the Wisconsin poll has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

In an election defined by a historically wide gender gap, the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania polls found Harris faring better among women voters and Trump among male voters. Harris leads Wisconsin’s likely women voters 59%-38%, and Trump leads Wisconsin’s likely male voters 53%-41, the poll found. In Pennsylvania, Harris leads women voters 49%-46%, while Trump leads male voters 50%-46%

But in Michigan, CNN found Harris and Trump tied with male voters at 44%, while Harris leads among female voters in the state 49%-41%.

More: ‘A petty tyrant’: 6 takeaways from Kamala Harris closing argument speech

In all three states, Harris polled better than Trump on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy: a 7-point advantage in Pennsylvania, a 16-point advantage in Michigan and a 17-point edge in Wisconsin.

Trump is seen as the better candidate to handle the economy, but by narrower margins than much of the race: a 3-point advantage in Wisconsin, a 4-point edge for Trump in Michigan and an 8-point edge in Pennsylvania.

Independent presidential candidate Robert. F. Kennedy, who dropped out of the race in August to endorse Trump, remains on the ballot in Wisconsin and Michigan. The CNN polls found he has support from 3% of likely voters in Michigan and 1% in Wisconsin.

A pair of polls from USA TODAY/Suffolk University this week found Trump in a stronger “blue wall” position than the CNN polls: leading Harris 48%-47% in Wisconsin and tied with Harris at 47% in Michigan.

More: Gender war: Historic gap between men and women defines Harris v. Trump

What is the blue wall?

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan − each carried by President Joe Biden in 2020 − have voted as a bloc in every presidential election since 1988, with one of the presidential candidates sweeping all three. Trump flipped the three “blue wall” states to the Republican column in 2016 en route to his defeat over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

If Harris carries all three “blue wall” states in the Nov. 5 election, then she would likely secure enough electoral votes to win the presidency even if she loses the four other battleground states − North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. That’s assuming Harris wins Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, where she is polling ahead, and all other states she is heavily favored to win.

For Trump, a victory in any of the “blue wall” states − particularly Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground − would open a path for him to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes by pairing that win with victories in the Sun Belt states, where he is polling stronger.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly on Twitter, @joeygarrison.

Our country is stuck, and we’ve got to make a change.  

Pennsylvanians across the Commonwealth are struggling under the policies championed by Senator Bob Casey and Vice President Harris. Nearly 60% say the country is on the wrong track. And Pennsylvanians are being hit harder by price increases than almost anywhere else in the country. 

If voters want more of the same, they should vote for an 18-year incumbent. But if you’re looking for change after once-in-a-generation price increases, a wave of violent crime in our cities, a wide-open southern border and a fentanyl crisis that is killing more than 4,000 Pennsylvanians each year, I’d be honored to have your vote. 

OBAMA SLAMS PRO-TRUMP MEN AT PHILADELPHIA RALLY; SPRINGSTEEN WARNS GOP NOMINEE IS ‘AN AMERICAN TYRANT’

I’m a proud seventh-generation Pennsylvanian who was born in Washington County and grew up in Bloomsburg. I was the first kid from my town to go to West Point in decades, where I was the proud co-captain of the Army Wrestling Team. I learned the code I live by, immortalized by General Douglas MacArthur: “Duty, Honor, Country.” 

I became a paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne Division and went to Ranger School. After serving my country in combat during Operation Desert Storm, I retired from the Army as a captain. I then helped create hundreds of jobs right here in Pennsylvania as an executive and later CEO of a successful Pittsburgh software company called FreeMarkets. 

I’m a political outsider, not a 30-year career politician like Senator Casey. I’ve put forward a detailed policy agenda that will reduce the cost of living for working families, create jobs, lower energy prices, secure the border, and make it easier to start a family by providing tax credits for fertility treatments and to lessen the financial burden of raising children. 

What has Bob Casey done? 

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He voted for more than $5 trillion in new spending that sent inflation soaring, against middle-class tax cuts, and weakly stood by while Biden and Harris attacked Pennsylvania’s energy industry, adding red tape for permits and EPA mandates and putting a ban on liquified natural gas exports. He voted to allow biological males to participate in women’s sports, which would undo the great strides that have been made under Title IX. And he has repeatedly failed to show the moral courage to stand up to the antisemitic wing of his party. 

Bob Casey didn’t change Washington. Washington changed Bob Casey. He is not an independent voice for the Commonwealth because he votes 98% of the time for the failing, liberal agenda of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris that has devastated the livelihoods of working Pennsylvania families. Many Pennsylvanians struggle to think of a single notable legislative accomplishment over Casey’s 18 years in office. In fact, the senior senator from the Keystone State does not even crack the top 10 among Senate Democrats for legislative effectiveness. 

And while Bob Casey says there’s systemic racism in our police, I will always stand with law enforcement. That’s why I’m proud to have the support of the Pennsylvania Fraternal Order of Police, Philadelphia Firefighters’ and Paramedics’ Union Local 22, Allegheny County Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 91, Pennsylvania State Troopers Association, and 47 county sheriffs from across the Commonwealth. 

Given Casey’s terrible record, it’s no surprise he has decided to attack my success and lie about my record. The Washington Post gave one of his attack ads against me “Four Pinocchios” because it was literally “made up,” while the Wall Street Journal called another attack on my business record “economic illiteracy disguised as investigative reporting.” 

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I’m a political outsider, not a 30-year career politician like Senator Casey. I’ve put forward a detailed policy agenda that will reduce the cost of living for working families, create jobs, lower energy prices, secure the border, and make it easier to start a family by providing tax credits for fertility treatments and to lessen the financial burden of raising children. 

Put aside these distractions, and the choice is clear. In this race, voters will choose between the status quo and change that will improve the lives of all Pennsylvanians.  

If I have the honor of being elected to represent Pennsylvania in the Senate, I will be an independent, bipartisan voice and a problem solver who will demand much-needed change. That’s what our great Commonwealth deserves, and I’d be honored to deliver it. 

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