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Tony Predictions: Expect Wins for ‘Kimberly Akimbo’ and ‘Leopoldstadt’

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Tony Predictions: Expect Wins for ‘Kimberly Akimbo’ and ‘Leopoldstadt’

What do you get when you toss together a brassy grifter, an Elvish-speaking anagrammist, a show choir and, oh yes, a teenager with a life-threatening genetic condition? This year, it seems, you get a Tony-winning musical.

“Kimberly Akimbo,” a small show with a huge heart, is likely to win the most coveted prize at the 76th Tony Awards ceremony on Sunday, according to my annual survey of Tony voters.

Over the last week, I have connected, by email or telephone, with 158 voters who generously agreed to discuss their picks (and, often, their concerns about, and hopes for, the theater business); they are distributing their votes widely among the nominees after a season with few consensus favorites.

There are a total of 769 Tony voters, and they are mostly industry insiders — producers, investors, actors, writers, directors, designers, and many others with theater-connected lives and livelihoods. Although in recent years, voters have been allowed to cast ballots only in categories in which they had seen all nominees, this year, because health and economic disruptions (and, over the last few days, wildfire smoke) made it hard for some voters to catch some shows, there is more leeway: Voters can cast ballots in any category in which they have seen all but one nominee.

This is not a scientific poll, but in past years this exercise has provided a reliable forecast of the ultimate winners in key categories. For the actual results (and the songs!) tune in on Sunday for the telecast at 8 p.m. Eastern on CBS and Paramount+ (and, if you want to see the awards for design and other creative categories, stream the preshow at 6:30 p.m. Eastern on Pluto TV).

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Until then, here’s what I am hearing:

In each of the last four Tony Awards, voters have chosen as best play an epic production imported from London. Last year was “The Lehman Trilogy,” and before that were “The Inheritance,” “The Ferryman” and “Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.”

This year, that trend seems certain to continue. By a significant margin, voters are favoring “Leopoldstadt,” a play by Tom Stoppard about how the Holocaust affected an assimilated and affluent Jewish family in Austria.

The play proved inadvertently timely: Although written several years ago, it arrived on Broadway last September, just as concern about resurgent antisemitism was rising in the United States and beyond.

“Leopoldstadt” is leading the second-place favorite, “Fat Ham,” two-to-one among the voters with whom I spoke, suggesting that it is all but certain to win. Three other nominated plays, “Ain’t No Mo’,” “Cost of Living” and “Between Riverside and Crazy,” are further behind.

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Stoppard, who is 85, is already the winningest playwright on Broadway: He has previously won the best play Tony four times, for “Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead,” “Travesties,” “The Real Thing” and “The Coast of Utopia.”

“Leopoldstadt,” directed by Patrick Marber and featuring an ensemble cast of 38, is about a fictional family, but is inspired by Stoppard’s own life experience: He was born in what was then Czechoslovakia; his parents fled invading Nazis when he was a toddler; he has spent his life in Britain; and, like a character in “Leopoldstadt,” only late in life came to understand his family’s Jewishness and the impact of the Holocaust on his relatives.

The play, which transferred to Broadway after winning the Olivier Award for best play in London, opened last October to strong reviews and healthy box office sales in New York. Its sales have softened considerably this year, and it is scheduled to close on July 2.

“Kimberly Akimbo” is the smallest of the nominated new musicals, with just nine characters and a budget that is about one-third that of its splashiest competitors.

But it is shaping up to be the little engine that could: It opened last fall to the strongest reviews of any of the season’s new musicals, and now a plurality of voters interviewed say they are voting for it as the season’s best new musical.

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Not all voters love “Kimberly Akimbo” — some are finding it extraordinarily moving, while others are left cold — but the show’s odds are good because those who are not voting for it are splitting their votes between two comedies: “Some Like It Hot,” adapted from the Billy Wilder film, and “Shucked,” a pun-filled and country-scored fable. The two other nominated musicals, “& Juliet” and “New York, New York,” lag considerably behind.

“Kimberly Akimbo,” which opened in November, is about a high school student, 15 going on 16, whose life is threatened by a genetic disorder that causes her to age prematurely; that sounds sad, and it is, but the musical is also quite funny, as the protagonist navigates a dysfunctional home life, a gawky peer group, and the criminal aunt who connects those worlds. The show, directed by Jessica Stone, is adapted from a play by David Lindsay-Abaire; he wrote the musical’s book and lyrics, and Jeanine Tesori wrote the music.

This was, by all accounts, a good season for revivals, many of which were praised by critics and a number of which sold well at the box office. But that is making these categories tougher for voters, who liked so many of the offerings that they are torn over which to single out for prizes.

Among play revivals, a production of Suzan-Lori Parks’s “Topdog/Underdog” appears to have a modest but real lead, and is likely to win the Tony Award. If it is upset, it would be by the revival of Henrik Ibsen’s “A Doll’s House,” but there is enough support for revivals of August Wilson’s “The Piano Lesson” and Lorraine Hansberry’s “The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window” to make it difficult for any of them to catch up.

“Topdog/Underdog,” first staged Off Broadway in 2001, is about two Black brothers, portentously named Lincoln and Booth, living together in a one-room apartment, trying to get by in a world that makes their lives difficult. The play is an undisputed classic — it won the Pulitzer Prize for drama in 2002, and in 2018 was named the best American play of the previous quarter century by New York Times critics. The revival, directed by Kenny Leon, ran from September 2022 to January.

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The musical revival category is even closer. A production of “Parade,” a 1998 musical written by Alfred Uhry and Jason Robert Brown about the lynching of a Jewish man in early-20th-century Georgia, has a narrow lead among voters I spoke with, but there is also substantial support for revivals of two shows with songs by Stephen Sondheim: “Into the Woods” and “Sweeney Todd.” Any of those three could win; a revival of “Camelot” is not a significant factor in the race. “Parade” opened in March and is scheduled to close in August; “Camelot” and “Sweeney Todd” are running indefinitely, while “Into the Woods” is wrapping up a national tour.

J. Harrison Ghee, Jodie Comer and Victoria Clark can start writing their acceptance speeches. Each of them is almost certainly going to take home a Tony Award.

The category of best leading actor in a play, on the other hand, is way, way, way too close to call, but has boiled down to two of the five contenders: Sean Hayes and Stephen McKinley Henderson.

Ghee, who is nonbinary, is winning over voters with an empathetic, but also entertaining, portrayal of a musician whose gender identity is evolving in “Some Like It Hot.”

Comer wowed voters with her physically and emotionally exhausting tour-de-force performance in “Prima Facie,” a one-woman play about a lawyer who defends men accused of sexual assault until she becomes a victim herself. Amazingly, this is her first stage role.

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And Clark is heavily favored for her mind-bending star turn in “Kimberly Akimbo,” in which the 63-year-old actress plays an ailing adolescent with all the awkwardness, resilience and premature wisdom that such a role requires. Clark previously won a Tony Award in 2005 for “The Light in the Piazza.”

As for that race for best leading actor in a play: A little less than a third of voters I spoke with chose Hayes, who in “Good Night, Oscar” portrays Oscar Levant, a pianist whose bitter humor made him a popular talk-show guest while he battled serious psychological problems. But nearly the same number of voters are supporting Henderson for his portrayal of a retired police officer trying to hang onto a rent-controlled apartment in “Between Riverside and Crazy.”

Who will win? Check back on Sunday night.

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New Yorkers Have Little Data but Big Feelings About Congestion Pricing

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New Yorkers Have Little Data but Big Feelings About Congestion Pricing

It’s too soon to know whether New York City’s new congestion pricing plan has succeeded in reducing traffic in Manhattan. And it will be a while before we know if the new fees will raise the billions of dollars proponents have promised. But even before the hard data arrives, New Yorkers (and those who commute to New York) have had lot to say.

Some public transit commuters report buses miraculously arriving on time or (gasp) early. Drivers are either steaming mad — or agog at traffic-free bridges. Many pedestrians say they are suddenly less anxious about crossing the street. And some former congestion pricing haters are startled to find themselves reconsidering.

The first-in-the-nation plan took effect this week after years of contentious debate. Most drivers now pay $9 to enter Manhattan below 60th Street. Money collected from the toll is supposed to be used to improve public transportation.

Congestion pricing arrived at the same time as a stretch of brutally cold weather in New York, so it’s still unclear what has been keeping people out of their cars and off the streets.

But Ilena Robbins, 37, believes congestion pricing has already been transformative.

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It is not hyperbole to say that crossing Canal Street, a notoriously clogged east-west thoroughfare with four — and in some places six — lanes, used to make her fear for her life.

Ms. Robbins, who grew up in Manhattan but now lives in Queens, compared navigating the intersection where she works, at Canal and Lafayette Streets, to a game of Frogger — at least in the old days.

“It would stress me out just getting lunch,” she said. Thursday was her first day there post-congestion pricing. “I couldn’t believe it,” she said. “I was able to cross safely, and cars weren’t honking. It was like a whole other world.”

Asad Dandia owns and operates a walking tour company, New York Narratives, and conducted his first post-congestion pricing walking tour at noon on Thursday, leading 20 students through Lower Manhattan.

“It was much easier to cross the street,” said Mr. Dandia, a 32-year-old native of Brighton Beach, Brooklyn. “Definitely quieter. Definitely calmer.”

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Mr. Dandia, who also teaches a New York City history course at CUNY Guttman Community College, added that he saw great potential in congestion pricing. “I think it could lead to a renaissance — a street renaissance.”

Even people who don’t study the streets for a living were swept up in the excitement.

Annie Kaur usually posts videos about fashion on her TikTok account. But from her apartment on the 32nd floor of a building that overlooks Third Avenue, Ms. Kaur, a 27-year-old management consultant, noticed how few cars were on the road during rush hour on Tuesday.

At 5:04 p.m., she filmed a video from her window and posted the clip with the caption, “There’s usually so much traffic during this time of the day!”

By Friday, the video had over three million views — more than any of her other posts.

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“It definitely did surprise me,” she said. “This is not my usual content.”

There were also over 3,000 comments, some cranky: “If u have this view u can afford the tolls,” one viewer wrote.

Ms. Kaur said congestion pricing doesn’t really affect her much, except if she takes a cab or Uber at night, when that feels safer than riding the subway.

But her perch gives her an interesting perspective. “I’ve seen a lot of traffic,” she said. “I’ve seen gridlock — just, crazy, stopped.”

On the day that she filmed, she said, the traffic seemed about 25 percent lighter. But, she hedged: “It could just be because it was after the holidays. And it was less than 20 degrees. It was freezing, you know?”

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Regardless, down on the streets, some people were ecstatic.

Ramit Sethi, an author and entrepreneur, posted in all caps on social media that his ride on Thursday was “the fastest trip I’ve ever taken to the airport from NYC!!! Thank you congestion pricing!!!”

In an email, Mr. Sethi, 42, reported that his Lyft driver got him from downtown Manhattan to Newark Liberty International Airport in just 23 minutes. “No honking, zero congestion around the Holland Tunnel, no need to leave an extra half-hour early to account for traffic,” he said.

And some drivers admitted they have been forced to change their tune.

On Tuesday, a social media user named Ali Lyles posted a video on TikTok in which he compared being charged a toll as he crossed a bridge to “being robbed without a gun.”

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Just a short time later, he posted another video, acknowledging that he had saved half an hour from his commute. “There wasn’t no traffic, bruh,” he said. “I might actually like congestion pricing!”

Marc Jacoby, 64, had a similar experience. He drives from the West Village to the Bronx or Westchester four to five times a week to teach music to people with special needs. He drives instead of taking public transportation because, he said, he carries so much equipment: “Guitars. Puppets. Percussion instruments. Flutes. Whistles. Sometimes toys.”

Before now, Mr. Jacoby had only negative impressions of congestion pricing.

“If someone asked me, two weeks ago, I would say this is going to be a disaster,” he said. “But I was wrong about that. And I’m happy to admit that I was wrong.”

At 42nd Street and the West Side Highway on Thursday at 1 p.m., the consistently clogged streets near the Intrepid Museum and Circle Line Cruises were clear. Mr. Jacoby described the scene as “actually unbelievable.”

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There are discounts for low-income vehicle owners, but Mr. Jacoby believes the fee should be set on a sliding scale.

“When Big Brother scans your license plate, they should tie it to your state tax return,” he said. A driver making a half-million dollars a year, he suggested, should pay $50. “And when they see me, maybe I should pay $5 or $9.”

Some people don’t want to pay at all.

On Wednesday, Scott LoBaido, a Staten Island-based artist and activist, posted a video to social media showing himself using duct tape to cover up his license plate and suggesting others do the same, as a way to avoid the toll.

Later in the day, Mr. LoBaido, whose work includes paintings of Donald Trump hugging the Empire State Building in front of an American flag, was arrested after he staged a one-man protest near Columbus Circle.

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Still, there was so much congestion pricing buzz — positive, negative or neutral — that even brands and people in other cities were chiming in.

Shake Shack announced a temporary “Congestion Pricing Combo” starting Jan. 13: a burger and fries for $9 — “toll not included.”

And Lauren Walker, a resident of Washington, D.C., wondered if cities should go even further: “My opinion on congestion pricing,” she joked on the social media site Bluesky, “is that it should cost 10,000 dollars to honk your car horn.”

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Large Blaze Ravages Bronx Apartment Building, Leaving Many Displaced

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Large Blaze Ravages Bronx Apartment Building, Leaving Many Displaced

Dozens of families were looking for shelter after a large fire broke out at an apartment building in the Bronx early Friday, injuring at least seven people, the Fire Department said. There were no fatalities or life-threatening injuries, according to officials.

About 250 firefighters and emergency medical responders rushed to a six-story residential building on Wallace Avenue near Arnow Avenue after a fire was reported there just before 2 a.m., the Fire Department said. The blaze on the top floor was elevated to a five-alarm fire about an hour later, it said.

Several dozen firefighters were still gathered outside the building at around 10 a.m. Many windows on the top floor were blown out and some had shards of glass hanging in place that resembled jagged teeth. Smoke continued to climb from the building as a firefighter on a ladder hosed the roof.

The fire was brought under control shortly before 2 p.m., according to fire officials.

The seven people who were injured included five firefighters, the department said in an email. One person was treated at the scene but declined to be taken to a hospital.

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A spokeswoman for the Police Department said earlier that some people had suffered smoke inhalation injuries.

Robert S. Tucker, the fire commissioner, said during a news conference that it was a miracle that there had been no serious injuries or fatalities. Officials said that all of the apartments on the building’s top floor were destroyed.

Firefighters blasted water at the smoke and flames pouring out of the upper floors and roof, according to videos posted online by the Fire Department and television news outlets. Heavy winds had fueled the blaze, the department said.

The cause of the fire was under investigation, officials said.

The Red Cross was at the scene helping residents that were displaced by the fire, and a temporary shelter had been set up at the Bennington School on Adee Avenue nearby. Doreen Thomann-Howe, the chief executive of the American Red Cross Greater New York Region, said during the news conference that 66 families had already registered to receive assistance, including lodging. She said she expected that number to increase.

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Juan Cabrera and his family were among those seeking help at the Bennington School. Mr. Cabrera said that he and his family had not heard a fire alarm but had instead heard glass breaking as residents climbed out of windows. He said he had also heard people race across the hall one flight above him while others screamed “Get out!”

Mr. Cabrera, 47, said he had smelled smoke and woke up his daughter, Rose, 13. He and his wife, Aurora Tavera, grabbed their IDs, passports and cellphones, and the family left the building.

“I felt desperate,” Ms. Taverna, 32, said.

“Thank God we are still alive,” said Mr. Cabrera, who works as a school aide and custodian and has lived in the building for five years. “The material stuff you can get back, but we have our family,” he said.

Louis Montalvo, 55, was also among those seeking help. He said firefighters banged on his door at around 3 a.m. and that he had smelled smoke.

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“I am grateful to be around,” Mr. Montalvo said, as he stood outside of the temporary shelter. He was still wearing his felt pajama pants, which had snowmen printed on them.

Vanessa L. Gibson, the Bronx borough president, said she was “so grateful” there had been no fatalities from the fire.

The last major apartment fire in the Bronx occurred in 2022, and resulted in 17 deaths, which experts said were entirely preventable. Self-closing doors in the building did not work properly, allowing smoke to escape the apartment where the fire started and rapidly fill the structure’s 19 stories.

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New York’s Chinese Dissidents Thought He Was an Ally. He Was a Spy.

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New York’s Chinese Dissidents Thought He Was an Ally. He Was a Spy.

The Chinese government’s paranoia about overseas dissidents can seem strange, considering the enormous differences in power between exiled protesters who organize marches in America and their mighty homeland, a geopolitical and economic superpower whose citizens they have almost no ability to mobilize. But to those familiar with the Chinese Communist Party, the government’s obsession with dissidents, no matter where in the world they are, is unsurprising. “Regardless of how the overseas dissident community is dismissed outside of China, its very existence represents a symbol of hope for many within China,” Wang Dan, a leader of the Tiananmen Square protests who spent years in prison before being exiled to the United States in 1998, told me. “For the Chinese Communist Party, the hope for change among the people is itself a threat. Therefore, they spare no effort in suppressing and discrediting the overseas dissident community — to extinguish this hope in the hearts of people at home.”

To understand the party’s fears about the risks posed by dissidents abroad, it helps to know the history of revolutions in China. “Historically, the groups that have overthrown the incumbent government or regime in China have often spent a lot of time overseas and organized there,” says Jessica Chen Weiss, a professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins University. The leader Sun Yat-sen, who played an important role in the 1911 revolution that dethroned the Qing dynasty and led eventually to the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, spent several periods of his life abroad, during which he engaged in effective fund-raising and political coordination. The Communist Party’s own rise to power in 1949 was partly advanced by contributions from leaders who were living overseas. “They are very sensitive to that potential,” Weiss says.

“What the Chinese government and the circle of elites that are running China right now fear the most is not the United States, with all of its military power, but elements of unrest within their own society that could potentially topple the Chinese Communist Party,” says Adam Kozy, a cybersecurity consultant who worked on Chinese cyberespionage cases when he was at the F.B.I. Specifically, Chinese authorities worry about a list of threats — collectively referred to as the “five poisons” — that pose a risk to the stability of Communist rule: the Uyghurs, the Tibetans, followers of the Falun Gong movement, supporters of Taiwanese independence and those who advocate for democracy in China. As a result, the Chinese government invests great effort in combating these threats, which involves collecting intelligence about overseas dissident groups and dampening their influence both within China and on the international stage.

Controlling dissidents, regardless of where they are, is essential to China’s goal of projecting power to its own citizens and to the world, according to Charles Kable, who served as an assistant director in the F.B.I.’s national security branch before retiring from the bureau at the end of 2022. “If you have a dissident out there who is looking back at China and pointing out problems that make the entire Chinese political apparatus look bad, it will not stand,” Kable says.

The leadership’s worries about such individuals were evident to the F.B.I. right before the 2008 Beijing Olympics, Kable told me, describing how the Chinese worked to ensure that the running of the Olympic flame through San Francisco would not be disrupted by protesters. “And so, you had the M.S.S. and its collaborators deployed in San Francisco just to make sure that the five poisons didn’t get in there and disrupt the optic of what was to be the best Olympics in history,” Kable says. During the run, whose route was changed at the last minute to avoid protesters, Chinese authorities “had their proxies in the community line the streets and also stand back from the streets, looking around to see who might be looking to cause trouble.”

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