New Jersey
This might be New Jersey's snowiest day of the entire winter
Let it snow! With each passing week, our weather turns progressively colder. New Jersey’s first snowflakes of the season are now in view. And the Winter Solstice is only a little more than a month away. It is time to start thinking seriously about wintry weather. More specifically: Snow.
While pondering the many uses of “bread and milk,” I had a scientific curiosity.
I wondered if there was one day of the year that tends to be snowier than every other date on the calendar for New Jersey. Sure, there is an average “peak” to wintry weather. (In fact, there are three distinct peaks — more on that in a moment.) But can we pinpoint a single day that represents the height of New Jersey’s snow season?
As a matter of fact, yes we can.
Methodology
To complete this analysis, I queried the Applied Climate Information System, a warehouse of weather and climate data.
I specifically looked at exactly 50 years of snowfall data, from 1971 to 2020. (An admittedly arbitrary choice for period of record, but I wanted a healthy spread of snow observations both geographically and temporally.) Approximately 675 weather stations reported snow data in New Jersey in that time frame.
For the purposes of this project, I marked a calendar day as “snowy” if any single weather station in the state reported at least one inch of snowfall on that date.
An inch of snow is more than enough to snarl traffic and force you to drag out the snow brush yet again. (Getty Images / Vadven)
The Snowiest Day
There is actually a definitive answer here. With 24 out of 50 years (1971-2020) reporting snow — just shy of half — February 5th is the winner.
And what a funny coincidence: February 5th is also National Weatherperson’s Day. The most important holiday of the entire year!
Detailed Close-up of Groundhog Sitting up and Looking Left
Second place is February 13th with 23 occurrences. Third is January 21nd at 22. And tied for fourth are January 19th, January 25th, February 4th, and February 6th, all at 21 times in 50 years.
February 9 Snow
Digging into the Statistics
We can even take all the years of snow data and create a graph. This shows, for each day of snow season in New Jersey (October 4th to May 9th), the percentage of years from 1971-2020 that at least one inch of snow was reported somewhere in New Jersey.
Day-to-day variability is to be expected. That is resolved by the red trendline, representing a 14 point (2 week) moving average. There are some definitive patterns noticeable here.
First, I want to point out that the dataset is basically tri-modal. Meaning there are three definitive peaks in snowstorm activity. One little bump in snowy days around mid-December, leading up to the Winter Solstice. Another occurs in mid to late January, matching with the climatologically coldest temperatures of the year — the “dead of winter”. And another peak occurs in early to mid February, including the highest bar on February 5th.
In total, 178 days out of 366 have seen observed inch-plus snow in New Jersey. That is an impressive 49% of the year in which it has snowed here.
October snow has happened on a few occasions in New Jersey, including 2011 shown here. (Getty Images)
Looking at our snow season from start to finish (i.e. left to right on the graph), it is clear that snow can fall in November. But inch-plus snow is pretty rare in NJ until December.
There is a notable minimum value on December 24th. Christmas Eve. Only 4 of the last 50 years have shown an inch of magical Christmas Eve snow. But 11 Christmas Day snow observations have occurred. That strikes me as an odd outlier, and makes me wonder if there’s some observation bias or other funkiness with the reports here.
Christmas snow is especially magical. (Craig Allen photo)
You will notice another data minimum on February 29th, due to Leap Day. 4 out of the 13 February 29ths in the survey period reported snow. That comes to about 30%, in line with other nearby dates in late February and early March.
Finally, it is notable how quickly accumulating snow chances disappear beyond the first day of Spring, around March 21st. Snow in April is about as rare as November, at each tail of the graph.
Spring snow happens from time to time, and can cause damage to budding plants. (FamVeld)
Final Thoughts
Obviously, each winter season is different for New Jersey. And this climatological analysis in no way serves as a short-range or long-range forecast. Just a neat little investigation, proving that common sense largely matches reality when it comes to the timing of peak snow chances in New Jersey.
So stock up on the road salt, wear your pajamas inside-out, and start brewing the hot chocolate. February 5th could be a wintry day!
Let it snow: 12 things to know about winter forecasting in NJ
Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Check out Dan’s weather blog or follow him on Facebook for your latest weather forecast updates.
Glossary of NJ winter weather words and phrases
Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow
NEW JERSEY — Snowfall ranging from a light dusting to up to 2 inches is anticipated for New Jersey Friday night into Saturday, though some uncertainty about how the storm could unfold means that amounts may be higher in areas, according to the latest forecast.
Northwest Jersey is expected to see 1 to 2 inches, with “a slushy coating to up to an inch” of snow predicted for the rest of the Garden State, according to the National Weather Service. Light precipitation will come in during the morning into the afternoon, transitioning to mainly snow overnight.
A Hazardous Weather Outlook has been issued for the northeast corner of the state through Friday night, as travel conditions could become slippery.
Find out what’s happening in Across New Jerseyfor free with the latest updates from Patch.
“The danger is the snow can quickly erupt and come down at a steady clip in some areas during the afternoon and evening rush hour on Friday in the Northeast,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. This includes the metro areas of New York City and Philadelphia, he said.
Forecasters said there is some uncertainty with this storm depending on how it plays out. The National Weather Service called it “a difficult forecast,” and noted that snowfall amounts could be higher than forecast.
Find out what’s happening in Across New Jerseyfor free with the latest updates from Patch.
“Conditions around New York City are tricky,” Rayno said. “They can get a coating to an inch or two of snow from the clipper storm, perhaps a bit more if the coastal storm tracks farther west, or they could be in a rip-off zone where nothing to a few flurries occur.”
Saturday marks the first day of winter, and snow will end by late morning, forecasters say. Cold temperatures will linger through the weekend.
Here’s the latest forecast.
North Jersey
Friday: A chance of rain and snow before noon, then snow likely between noon and 1 p.m., then rain and snow likely after 1 p.m. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 11 p.m. Low around 29. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday: A chance of snow before 1 p.m. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 14. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 24. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 7.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 28.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.
Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
Central Jersey
Friday: Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2 a.m. Low around 32. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday: A chance of snow before 1 p,m. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 14. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 8.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 31.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.
South Jersey
Friday: Rain. High near 42. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night: Rain before 10 p.m., then rain and snow likely between 10 p.m. and 4 a.m., then a chance of snow after 4 a.m. Low around 31. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday: A chance of snow before 1 p.m. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 36. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 14. Northwest wind around 10 mph.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 27. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 7.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 34.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.
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Thursday, December 19, 2024 10:44PM
Dan Krauth has more on the emergency response.
BURLINGTON COUNTY, New Jersey (WABC) — An exclusive video obtained by Eyewitness News shows the emergency response to a large train collision in New Jersey in October.
A NJ Transit train hit a tree on the tacks, killing the train operator and injuring 23 others.
For the first time, we are seeing the emergency response to what happened.
The train was about 10 miles south of Trenton when it stuck a large tree.
What happened after was captured on police body camera video.
It shows what officers from Mansfield Township first encountered when they arrived on the scene on October 14th.
———-
DO YOU NEED A STORY INVESTIGATED? Dan Krauth, Kristin Thorne, and the 7 On Your Side Investigates team at Eyewitness News want to hear from you! Call our confidential tip line 1-877-TIP-NEWS (847-6397) or fill out the form BELOW.
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