THE SCOOP

The Devils have struggled since returning from the holiday break, winning only two of their seven games in that span: a 4-2 home win over the Hurricanes on Dec. 27 and a 3-2 win in Seattle against the Kraken on Jan. 6. In their most recent game against the New York Rangers, the Devils fell 3-2 in overtime at Madison Square Garden. Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt scored for the Devils in the loss. The Rangers’ two regulation goals were on the power play with Adam Fox and Artemi Panarin each scoring one. Sam Carrick had the overtime winner.

New Jersey is averaging 3.16 goals per game which is 11th in the NHL. Throughout the season, the Devils have limited their opponents to 2.55 goals per game which is fourth in the league. When it comes to special teams, the Devils have had one of the best power plays in the league through the first half. Currently, New Jersey’s power play is second, scoring 28% of the time. The Devils penalty kill is tenth in the league (82.1%).

Captain Nico Hischier leads the Devils with 19 goals and his 36 points are third on the team. Jack Hughes leads New Jersey with 50 points and is tied for the most assists (34) with Jesper Bratt. Hughes is also tied for the second most goals (16) with Stefan Noesen. Speaking of Noesen, his 16 goals through his first 44 games is a new career-high in a single season. Bratt’s 49 points are second on the team and his 15 goals are fourth. Jacob Markstrom has stood out for his strong play, especially over the last five weeks, as the Devils netminder has a 20-8-3 record through his 31 games played this season. He is averaging 2.20 goals against and has a .911 save percentage. Jake Allen makes up the other half of the goaltending tandem with a 5-7-1 record. He’s allowing 2.83 goals against on average and has a .901 save percentage.

Saturday kicks off a two-game homestand as the Devils host both Florida teams, with the second game on Jan. 14 against the Panthers. Following, the team heads to Toronto to face the Maple Leafs on Jan. 16.

After a four-game losing skid, the Lightning have bounced back with a pair of wins, beating the Carolina Hurricanes (Jan. 7, 3-2 W) and Boston Bruins (Jan. 9. 4-1 W). In their most recent game on Thursday, Tampa Bay saw goals from Anthony Cirelli (SHG), Michael Eyssimont, Brandon Hagel (EN), Braydon Point (PPG) while Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of the 28 shots he faced.

The Lightning are averaging 3.69 goals per game which leads the NHL and they are allowing the eighth fewest goals on average per game (2.74). Tampa Bay is strong with their special teams units. Their power play is fifth in the league, scoring on 26.5% of their opportunities while their penalty kill is eighth, killing off penalties 82.7% of the time.

Braydon Point’s 25 goals are a team-high and his 47 points are second on the team. Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 41 assists and 58 points while his 17 goals are fourth. The Lightning have four player with 40 or more points through Tampa Bay’s first 39 games this season: Kucherov (58), Point (47), Hagel (45), and Jake Guentzel (40). Vasilevskiy has carried the majority of the Lightning’s workload this season, playing 31 games this season with a 18-12-1 record. He’s averaging 2.31 goals against and has a .916 save percentage. Jonas Johansson has played nine games this season with a 4-3-1 record. He’s averaging 3.32 goals against and has a .898 save percentage.

Saturday is the first stop on a three-game roadtrip for the Lightning who continue on to Pittsburgh and Boston before returning home.

WHO’S HOT

Devils: Paul Cotter has three goals in the six games back from the holiday break, including two in his last three games (SEA, SJS). The forward is only three goals away from tying his single season career-high in goals that he set during the 2022-23 season with the Vegas Golden Knights. Cotter has 16 points this season through 44 games played.

Lightning: Brandon Hagel enters Saturday on a two game goal and points streak with three points during the last two games (2G, 1A). Hagel also leads the NHL with 15 goals from the low-slot region (per NHL Edge). Hagel is third in goals (19) and points (45) on the Lightning, while his 26 assists are second on Tampa Bay.

INJURIES

Devils: Haula (ankle, day-to-day), Hatakka (shoulder, IR)

Lightning: Moser (lower-body, IR)

REGULAR-SEASON RESULTS

Last night was a disappointing overtime loss to the one team no one with a soul wants to see the New Jersey Devils lose to: Our Hated Rivals. Yes, The Big Deal made the big mistakes with the puck, one of which that led to the game-ending 2-on-1 rush against. Yes, he acknowledged the error. However, that was just one moment of a larger issue that has been present since the team’s Christmas break: the Devils have been giving up more on defense and it has been hurting them. More shots against. More odd man rushes against. More opportunities for opponents to get into games and prevail. The Devils ended their road trip with a 1-4-1 record and that was with an in-form Jacob Markstrom doing the best he can to keep the team in it. This needs further discussion – and changes.

Evidence of the Problem

Part of the issue is that the Devils were so hot defensively before Christmas that there was no way it was going to be sustained. Keeping one team to fewer than 20 shots is great. Doing it in seven straight games against the likes of Toronto, Los Angeles, Chicago, St. Louis (on the road), Columbus (on the road), Pittsburgh, and Our Hated Rivals is very impressive given the variety of quality of opponents. There was no way that was going to last forever and it did not. The issue is that it has turned another way.

After Christmas, the team’s on-ice against rates in 5-on-5 play – the rates of what the opposition is putting up against the Devils – have mostly went up compared to what they were before Christmas. Yes, this is a comparison of 37 games to 7, so it is not a fair one. Yet, it proves that the Devils’ defensive efforts have been objectively worse since Christmas. Your eyes are not playing tricks on you.

• Corsi (shot attempts): 54.65 CA/60 before Christmas to 57.98 CA/60 after Christmas
• Shots on net: 24.20 SA/60 to 28.64 SA/60
• Scoring chances: 23.89 SCA/60 to 23.69 SCA/60
• High danger scoring chances: 9.69 HDCA/60 to 9.37 HDCA/60
• Expected goals 2.21 xGA/60 to 2.42 xGA/60
• Actual goals: 2.05 GA/60 to 2.47 GA/60

The exception is in the rate of chances allowed, both all and high danger ones. They have actually improved a bit since Christmas. Yet, the pure increase of attempts and shots allowed have ballooned what the goalies are facing. Over the last seven games, they have allowed about as many as expected. Which is remarkable given some of the eye-popping saves that Jacob Markstrom has made since Christmas, such as the ones that dragged the Devils to a 3-2 win in Seattle.

Of course, those saves in of itself is another piece of evidence of that the Devils’ defensive issues in the last two weeks are legitimate. Yes, a goaltender has to bail out their team some times. When you observe the goalie making multiple bail out saves in most of their recent games, then it means the team is giving up big chances. Great for Markstrom, not so great for the guys in front of them.

This is why head coach Sheldon Keefe’s quotes to the media usually include some kind of theme about getting counter-attacked, such as this one to Catherine Bogart after the win in Seattle. That Keefe can say that after a win is further evidence that this problem is indeed a problem. It is a concern to me that the head coach of a team over 40 games into their season says the team needs to clean things up and they have not really done that even with the largely the same personnel on the ice after multiple games where these issues have cropped up. To that end, let us see what could be causing these rushes against and these increases in shot volume against. From there, some adjustments can be identified to hopefully reduce the problem.

The Causes of the Problems

Unfortunately, The Big Deal’s turnover that cost the Devils in OT last night was a good example as any of one of the causes of these issues: turnovers. The answer to those kinds of turnovers are pretty simple from my vantage point. Be more careful with the puck, especially in high-leverage situations where puck possession is critical. Like 3-on-3 overtime.

However, turnovers have been an issue in a larger sense for the Devils since Christmas. It is more than just giving away possession or making a bad read on a pass. I mean turnovers as any time the Devils just do not have possession anymore. Generally on offense, that could come from a missed shot, a blocked shot, a save with a rebound won by the the defending team. This is important to understand because those events can drive counter-attacks where the defending team transitions quickly into offense to take advantage of numbers and situation. It does not need to be from a giveaway. It could be from a bounce after an otherwise understandable decision to shoot the puck. It could be from a stop where the rebound eluded two Devils in close.

For example, take the amazing Markstrom stop in a 3-on-1 rush against the Devils by Seattle back on Monday. The play begins with the Devils on offense. The puck is knocked down and it gets to Shane Wright to lead an exit. The Big Deal is on the blueline because as part of the attack, Jonas Siegenthaler activated and so he was on the blueline. The issue is that Wright is heading downhill and all of the football fans of the People Who Matter know what that means. Hughes may have been in position physically but it was not going to stop Wright and he did not. Jonathan Kovacevic hustled back like crazy but tried to deny a pass from Wright and missed. Ondrej Palat backchecked as hard as he could to pick up Wright – but this left Oliver Bjorkstrand open as a trailer. A goal against was expected and Markstrom thankfully said no. But again, the genesis of this play was not a giveaway or a bad decision. A puck, perhaps an attempted shot, was knocked down. It dropped in a place for the Kraken to rush back and they did.

The play also highlights another issue that has been causing these rushes against and some of the struggles on defense: the rotation of players. When a Devils defenseman activates to move in closer on offense, a forward drops back to the blueline to fill in his space. On the Bjorkstand play, that was Jack Hughes. His play off the puck has been leaps and bounds better than it was years ago. But putting a forward in a position to play defense is still a risk regardless of whether the forward is Hughes, Nico Hischier, or Tomas Tatar. It is not always something to ask a player to do, much less one that could be doing more in the offensive zone. Further: Why was Jonas Siegenthaler activating? I like how he has done this season but he is far from my first choice to see a defender moving up on the play. And when a defender does get deeper on offense, it means he has a lot more ground to make up on defense if and when the play turns around. A quick defenseman like Luke Hughes can manage some of this. A not-so-quick defenseman like Dougie Hamilton, not so much.

Speaking of Dougie Hamilton, here is another highlight-reel save from the Seattle game from that same first period. Jared McCann receives a rim around the boards, looks up, and saw Andre Burakovsky in the middle on Hamilton’s left – and nothing in between them. The long pass was on target. As Hamilton had to turn around, Burakovsky had him beat. Thankfully, Markstrom stopped him one-on-one. But this is another source of these issues: the neutral zone. A routine offensive zone faceoff loss was not an issue until McCann looked up and saw Dillon outside of the dot lane – meaning he was close to the boards – and Hamilton on the same side as Dillon from the center line. It was a simple pass that could have been prevented had Hamilton been in the middle or at least to the left. Or if Dillon did not come around to the other side. That was an example of a lack of structure in the middle of the rink that led to a one-on-one situation. And it was hardly the only one since Christmas where the opposition just broke through (or in the case of Andre Lee’s goal, over) neutral zone.

Lastly, these rushes against have contributed to a general confusion on what is happening in the defensive zone. Which is a concern to me since, again, the roster has largely been together for over 30 games. The three defensive pairings for New Jersey might as well be written in pen at this point. So when I see these two third-period highlight saves from Markstrom, I’m thinking of the following:

• First save: Why did Dougie Hamilton leave Tolvanen after he got towards the crease? (This was the biggest sin on the play.) Additionally: Why did Brenden Dillon and Paul Cotter focus on Kaapo Kaako after the zone entry?
• Second save: How did Matty Beniers get behind both Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce with neither adjusting to pick him up? And how did Luke get the first attempt to try to deny Benier’s rebound attempt?

In thinking it further, I can understand Dillon focusing on Kakko to prevent him from going down and Cotter, in theory, could try to trap him in the corner. Hamilton left Tolvanen and tried to make a heroic blocking attempt that failed miserably as Tolvanen was set up for a tap-in where it not for the heroic save by Markstrom that was successful. As far as the second one, Luke Hughes was in motion whereas Pesce tried to block the initial shot that Beniers was in position to pounce on. In both cases, I see veteran defensemen going for blocks that, if made, would be appreciated. They missed and so they owe Markstrom a nice steak dinner. Had they focused more sticking with a man in coverage, the play may not even happen.

To summarize: I think the causes are turnovers, activating defensemen that leaves a forward back to defend, a lack of structure in the neutral zone, and general confusion in the defensive zone with perhaps too much of an effort on trying to block shots for the goalie. With that, lets discuss some adjustments to help each of them.

Adjustments for Improvement

The first major point is that eliminating odd man rushes against or chances against or even shots against is not the goal. This is hockey. An inherently chaotic game. Expecting perfection is what a fool believes and so that is not the goal. The goal for the Devils should be to reduce these kinds of plays against them. How can that be done? Let us go over the causes.

For the turnovers, there are a couple of things. For the simple giveaways, puck management just has to be better by the puck carrier. Whether that is Jack Hughes or Curtis Lazar, that is straight forward. For when pucks bounce off boards and bodies, the Devils should avoid the temptation of overloading the battle. Three guys do not need to be crashing the net to win a puck. One of those players can hang back in case it does not go, or even if the puck rebounds out further. The current way may be understandable but given how it is hurting, some discretion is worth trying.

Which brings to the second cause: activating defensemen. Look, Luke Hughes should have the greenlight to go. He has the speed and the puck control to make it work. Everyone else with the occasional exception for when Hamilton can step into a shot within 40 feet should not. Again, I like a lot of what Pesce, Kovacevic, and Siegenthaler have done this season. Very little of that have happened in the offensive zone. I know the Devils are looking to catch opponents by surprise. I am not sure #71 coming in to be an option close to the net is it. Especially if it means someone like Jesper Bratt dropping back to the blueline. Basically, the Devils need to do this less often or be more specific on when it happens.

As for the structure in the neutral zone, this is something that really needs to be drilled into the team. They are talented enough to pin opponents back on offense and have shifts of constant puck possession and pressure. Great. When those plays do not work, they need to drop back into something. When veteran defensemen are being caught on one side of the ice after a simple faceoff loss over a 100 feet away from the puck, that something has been lost. If there is something the coaching staff should focus on first, then it is likely this. Telling a team to ease up on activation and be more careful is direct. This one needs some actual thought into what kind of structure Keefe and his team would want to have between the two attacking zones.

For the defensive zone, I think there are two adjustments that could be made. The first is sell out less often for blocks. To reference Kent Wilson, blocking shots is like killing a rat. There are times where you have to do it. If you’re doing it a lot, then you have a bigger problem. In the Devils’ case, they’re trying to kill rats when they really need to stop leaving food around for said rat. Clumsy metaphor aside, this is something the Devils can focus on right away and it can help ease the seeming confusion of skaters moving about trying to react to a play that they are a half-second too late for. It can also help them pick up players getting behind them and getting on the goalie’s blindside. It can keep them from being caught stationary, which is usually what happens when someone goes for a block. At least being mobile can allow them to be able to react on defense.

The second adjustment is to emphasize keeping the opposition in front of them. One of the best changes to the Devils’ defensive zone play has been an allowance to be patient and make a play within their own zone to set up a better exit. They should apply this approach to when the opposition comes in. They do not need to panic if it is a 3-on-2 or a 2-on-2 with the opposition coming in hot. Let them have the 30-40 foot shot. Do not let a player get behind the defensemen or be able to set up in front of the goalie. The forwards are backchecking, the defensemen can focus more on defending the house. Doing this can help make it clear as to who needs to do what on defense and that can only help.

The Devils are very much in the middle of the grind of the NHL regular season. Their road trip is over but they will play every other day from now until the 20th with the exception of a two-day break after tomorrow’s game. There really is not much time available for a practice or instituting a wholesale change to how the Devils play. And I do not think there is a specific player or unit that needs to be changed that would somehow fix this. Which is why adjustments to established instructions are something the Devils need to do if they want to change their fortunes.

Your Take

Of course, these are all just what I am thinking based on what I am seeing since the team returned from Christmas. What about you? What do you think the Devils need to do to address their post-Christmas issues on defense? What adjustments would you make if you are Sheldon Keefe? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about how the Devils can address their defensive issues in the comments. Thank you for reading.