Hello and welcome to another season of New Jersey Devils hockey! We are less than a week away before our favorite team laces them up for the season opener against Buffalo in Czechia. Can you believe it’s here already? Because I cannot. Yes, the offseason felt very long at times, especially since the Devils were rather pathetic last season and missed the playoffs, but still, is it really hockey season already? Let’s go!

Last year when I kicked off these preview posts here at All About the Jersey, I wrote about how there was a real energy and vibe around this franchise for the first time in what felt like forever, and that it really was a good time to be a fan. But wow did NJ do everything they could to make that statement false? They underperformed and disappointed for basically the entire season and left us wondering how this roster, full of young talent, could really be a one-and-done playoff team like the 2017-18 Taylor Hall version. No way, right? Well, this is the year for them to prove to us that this version of the Devils, this young, talented version, can actually find and maintain success, reach the playoffs once again, and compete as one of the best teams in the league. On paper, this roster is very capable, but we will see if they manage it.

Today, I will dive into the forward corps of this team. I will discuss what happened last season with this group and how they performed. Then, I will dive into the changes for this year, additions and departures, before finally discussing expectations and predictions for how they will look and how they end up performing. Without further ado, let’s dive into the first part of our season preview!

What Happened Last Year?

Before going into individual performances, take a quick look at how the offense did as a whole last season versus years prior, with information coming from Natural Stat Trick:

So I think it’s fairly interesting when we compare last season’s numbers on that chart to the 2017-18 team that did make the playoffs. Last year’s team scored 21 more goals, had 0.24 more goals per game, and had a higher shooting percentage by 1.14%. The only area where they were worse was in the luck stat, PDO, where last year’s team was under water but the 2017-18 team was basically luck-neutral.

What this tells us is one of two things, or perhaps both. First, there could have been more scoring last season as a whole in the league than in 2017-18. However, the ranking does not entirely track with that, as last year the team ranked 12th in the league with 264 goals, and they ranked 15th in 17-18 with 243 goals, so that fits with the league scoring similar amounts of goals both years. But what it really tells us is that last year’s team did not miss the playoffs because they could not score. On the contrary, last year’s team scored plenty enough to make the playoffs. Ranking in the top 12 in goals scored for the season should be enough to get a team in, or at least keep them competitive. The Devils did not get in, and neither were they very competitive towards the end of the season, they were out of it long before.

So in truth, while other preview posts coming up, like with goaltending and defense in particular, might show some serious regression, this one will not show as much. Yes, they did score 25 fewer goals than they did the year prior in 2022-23, but that was a top 4 offense that year. It is tough to replicate that kind of success year after year, especially for a team that is not known for that kind of sustained offensive success. So there was some negative regression to be expected last year in terms of goal production. Still, to maintain top 12 in the league, and to produce 3.2 goals per 60 minutes was not bad, all things considered. If they can score 3.2 goals per 60 again this season, they could be in decent shape with an improved goaltending situation. Yes, we want to see improvement this year and that is something that should realistically happen, but 3.2 isn’t downright bad either.

Next, let’s take a look at individual forward stats. The team stats above are good, but they do not isolate the forwards in particular, so blueline scorers like Luke Hughes are influencing those numbers. Therefore, check out this chart of all forwards who played at least 200 minutes last season. Stats from Natural Stat Trick:

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For the third year in a row for these forward previews that I do, the top three forwards to make the list, sorted by pointed scored in all situations, are Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, and Nico Hischier. The order among those three is different, but they have consistently been the best forwards on this team for the last few years, and we can realistically expect that to continue unless Timo Meier decides he wants to break the dream team up. That is the core of this forward group for now and into the future, and they are who will guide this group to greatness or doom them to mediocrity. We here at AATJ named Bratt our team MVP last year, and when looking at those numbers, it was rightly deserved. He played in all 82 games, scored over a point per game, and had fantastic analytical numbers too. He is a dream to have on this team, period. Yes, Jack would have been better if he played in more games, he was only 9 points behind despite playing in 20 fewer games. But Jack is also better, period, he is the best player on this team. That shouldn’t diminish what Bratt brings to the table, or Nico for that matter either. Those guys are the core of this forward group, and they are desperately needed.

Of course, Meier is a part of that core too, and if healthy, he should be on the same level as those three. He was not playing at 100% for most of last season, but towards the end of the year when he was healthier, he was clearly better. Hopefully, we see an improvement in Timo’s numbers this season as he plays at full strength. Some others with good numbers to note from last season: Erik Haula, who, despite only scoring about a half point per game, had strong peripherals with over 50% in his analytics plus a strong presence on faceoffs. Tyler Toffoli is also worth mentioning for his quality performance while here, but we won’t harp on him since he is no longer a Devil. Same with Michael McLeod, who the Devils will strongly miss in the faceoff circle and as a fourth-line center, but with his sexual assault case still pending in Canada, he remains on indefinite leave from the NHL. As a result, he signed to play in the KHL this season for the Kazakh club Barys Astana and will play alongside former Devil Will Butcher. Finally, Ondrej Palat had some decent analytical numbers as well, but really underperformed in terms of producing points and will need to score more this upcoming season.

Overall, the individual stats also show a forward group that was not terrible. There was some underperforming where it mattered most, producing points, but analytics show that the group was fairly decent overall, worthy of a top 12 group in the NHL. Yes, we want them to be a top 10 group, and they have the talent to be just that, so we should hope and expect some improvement this upcoming season. But on the whole, this group was not the main reason that last year’s team fell apart.

This Year’s Squad: Departures

The main departure from the group listed above, and who the team will need to replace the most, is Tyler Toffoli. Playing on the final year of a fairly team-friendly deal, the Devils realized that he had good value on the trade market heading into the trade deadline last season. They shipped him to Winnipeg for two picks, a 2nd in 2025 and a 3rd in 2024. They used the latter pick, pick 91 in the 2024 draft, on Swedish left winger Herman Traff, so we will see how that pick plays out. Toffoli was a quality scoring winger for the top 6 while here last season, producing 44 points in 61 games for 0.72 points per game. If the Devils can manage to replace that on the top 6 this season, they will be happy indeed.

Another trade, this time back in June, also sent away Alexander Holtz. Tom Fitzgerald traded Holtz and Akira Schmid to Vegas for Paul Cotter and a third rounder in 2025. It was widely panned at the time as a bad trade by Fitzgerald, and I agree, I find it very difficult to justify this trade from a Devils’ perspective. They traded away a former #7 overall pick and the Devils’ best postseason goaltender since Martin Brodeur in exchange for a fourth liner and a third round pick. Not great. In losing Holtz, they do not lose too much in terms of what he produced last season. Holtz only had 28 points in 82 games, and his analytical numbers were all underwater in the 40s, so it’s not like he was living up to expectations yet. But given his young age, improvement was very realistic heading into this season and I wish him the best in Vegas. I can easily see him blooming there and having to watch with regret as it all happens.

As I mentioned above, Michael McLeod will remain absent from the NHL while his sexual assault case in Canada is still pending. He was on a one-year deal last season and was not qualified this offseason, so he is technically a UFA, although he will remain out of the NHL at least until the case is concluded. Because of this, he signed to play in the KHL this season. The Devils will absolutely miss his faceoff abilities, he was the best faceoff man in the entire NHL when he was here last year. He was also very good in his specific role as a defensive forward who could start most of his shifts in the defensive zone and get the puck up ice. He maintained positive analytics despite a 39% OZFO%, which is not easy to do. It will be nigh impossible to replace his specific skill set, and if everything in his personal life was good, you can bet he would be on this team right now. However, what he did bring to the table was not all-star worthy either. He was excellent in what he did, and not having him take key draws will cost this team a few goals over 82 games, no doubt, but I would not say he was invaluable either. If this offense is good enough, as it should be, then not having McLeod should not be the end of the world.

Finally, a couple of bottom six forwards also left the team due to not being re-signed. Chris Tierney, who only managed 12 points in 52 games with the team despite having ok analytics, was not brought back and is still, as of this writing, without a contract according to Puck Pedia. The other bottom six departure is Tomas Nosek, who, unlike Tierney, does have a contract and is with Florida this season on a one-year, $775k deal. Both of those guys were filler pieces, brought in to round out the forward corps and provide some depth and perhaps 10-12 minutes a game. In essence, they are replaceable and their departures should not make much of an impact either way.

This Year’s Squad: Re-Signings

There were not a ton of re-signings this offseason to note outside of Dawson Mercer. This is unlike last year, when the team inked Timo Meier and Jesper Bratt to massive deals along with Erik Haula to a quality deal. Nothing quite so exciting or impactful. However, I have to note those who were re-signed, and I will, but we will leave Mercer to the end.

Kurtis MacDermid, who the Devils traded for back in March for some reason, was inked to a three year deal with a $1.15m AAV. MacDermid played in 16 games once he was acquired by the Devils, and he produced a measly single point, an assist. He played 29 games in Colorado before the trade and had 2 goals and 0 assists in that time, so he really is a minor player on this team, an “enforcer” if you will. Well, hopefully he is a minor player this season. If he starts getting significant minutes, things have gone off the rails. You wonder why he was given a three year deal, but whatever. Here is his player card and a note from JFresh when the Devils traded for him:

Another re-signing is Max Willman, who did not even play enough to make my 200-minute requirement for the chart earlier despite being on the team for the entire season (MacDermid didn’t either, but he was not on the team for too long). He played in 18 games last season for the Devils, producing 4 points, and was brought back on a one-year, $775k deal. Again, this is a depth signing that hopefully means very little in the long-term scheme of the season. There are no player cards I was able to find from free sources on X/Twitter of Willman, so just realize that we are looking at a player with a similar offensive aptitude to MacDermid. The sub-$1 million deal should be all you need to know.

The biggest name to note, and it is a fairly relevant one, is Dawson Mercer. Mercer was unsigned for most of the offseason, only inking his deal a little over a week ago. His camp and the Devils finally agreed on a 3 year deal worth $4 million a season just in time for him to participate in training camp. It will leave him as an RFA at age 25 in the 2027 offseason. It is a bridge deal to be sure, and it was a deal that made sense for both sides. Mercer should still be growing as a player and has much to prove, and the Devils wanted to maintain control by keeping him as an RFA to see what they want to do with him beyond that. But it also gives Mercer a chance to prove he deserves the big bucks. He has the potential to be a legit top 6 guy, but he really stagnated last season in terms of growth and production. He needs to pick things up again this season to get back on track.

If Mercer ends up stalling out on his growth and remains more of a bottom 6 forward, his value will fall down to more in line with what someone like Stefan Noesen earns in the future. But he has shown skills above that level, and if he can grow into the player we expect, he could become a real core forward on this team for a long time. The ceiling is quite high for Mercer, but the floor is quite low too. He needs to start proving himself this season and in a big way. Here are the player cards from both JFresh and Rono when he re-signed last Friday:

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This Year’s Squad: Additions

There might not have been much to discuss in the re-signing section outside of the Dawson Mercer stuff, but there are multiple free-agent signings that are indeed worth mentioning. Something needed to be done to replace Toffoli and Holtz, and hopefully upgrade them in the long run, and Fitzgerald tried to do that.

First, in what kind of almost feels like a re-signing, the Devils brought back Tomas Tatar on a one-year, $1.8 million deal. Tatar signed last season in Colorado after being in Jersey and played there for 27 games before being dealt to Seattle for a 5th-round pack in mid-December. He then spent the remainder of the season with the Kraken, playing in 43 games. He did not have a great year in terms of production, generating 24 points in those combined 70 games played, and issues of fit and playstyle came up. The Devils will be hoping for 2022-23 Tatar to come back to Newark when he had 48 points in 82 games. That would be quality third line production for this lineup. Here is his player card and a note from JFresh when he was signed:

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Next, in another return to Jersey, Fitzgerald signed Stefan Noesen to a three-year deal with an AAV of $2.75 million. Noesen was quite successful over the last two seasons in Carolina, producing 0.46 points per game as a bottom 6 winger. His Corsi in both seasons was over 60%, his xG% was over 58% both times, and his actual GF% was over 64% each season. So while 0.46 points per game is nothing amazing, he had really strong analytical numbers that showcase he was not a drag on the team. Granted, Carolina always has amazing analytical numbers, and some players simply get taken for the ride while there as that team always seems to tilt the ice in their favor regardless of who is skating. Nonetheless, Noesen is not a bad player, and he should be a serviceable third-line type for this team. Once again, here is JFresh:

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Finally, we want to note Paul Cotter, who I mentioned was traded for Alexander Holtz and Akira Schmid earlier in the offseason. Cotter is a fourth liner at best, and could easily be relegated to the AHL on a superior roster. There was next to nothing to say about him even when he was traded, but here is his player card from JFresh:

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As you can see, you really hope that Cotter does not play any more than fourth line minutes. And if he is a healthy scratch for someone else playing better than him, no one will be the slightest bit upset. You just really have to wonder what Fitzgerald was doing with this trade. Nonetheless, he is here and he is an addition.

Of course, there are others in training camp who could also crack the roster. There is one PTO forward in camp, Kevin Labanc, and there is definitely a chance a young forward or two can make it onto the roster for opening night. Nolan Foote is a good example of someone with potential, or maybe Chase Stillman if he is healthy, you never know. Foote probably has the best chance as a young kid to crack this lineup and prove he is an NHLer and not an AHLer, but he will need to turn heads often in camp and during the preseason to get his chance, outside of perhaps just a few “prove it” games where the team can see him play without eating into a year of his ELC.

This Year’s Squad: Lineup Prediction

Given all of that changeover, what will the forward lines look like on opening night? Lines will change often during the season, and with a new head coach, anything is possible. However, if you assume he keeps things somewhat similar to what Lindy Ruff was doing and fills in the gaps with new players where appropriate, here is a potential look:

Bratt – Hischier – Meier

Haula – Hughes – Palat

Tatar – Mercer – Noesen

Cotter – Lazar – Bastian

This lineup takes some things for granted. First, it keeps things largely similar to last year. It keeps the top line of Bratt, Hischier, and Meier together, and it keeps Haula with Hughes. It also has Mercer as the third line center, but who knows if that will happen given the late signing last week. If he does not play, Lazar could play third line center for the time being, and Cotter could be the fourth line center with someone like MacDermid filling in on the fourth line too. It also assumes no young kids have cracked the lineup. I would love to see someone like Nolan Foote in that lineup instead of Cotter, but considering the trade Fitzgerald made for him, it kind of makes me think Cotter plays almost regardless.

If Sheldon Keefe opts to change things in a larger sense, however, generating new lines we really did not see last season, then much more is possible. Maybe Bratt plays with Hughes this season, or he opts to put Haula as the third line center and have someone like Noesen, Tatar, or Mercer as a second line winger. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Expectations for This Season

In terms of offensive production, I think what we saw last season, the 12th-ranked offense in terms of goal production, was about the worst we could expect going into last year considering the year prior they were the #4 team and were still young and improving. Last year in this preview post, I said worst-case would be around 10th, so that isn’t too far off. This year, I have to hope that the worst-case scenario is similar to what we saw last year. I can’t imagine the Devils scoring at a significantly worse clip than they did last year. The offense is just as good as last season and should be improving with a healthy Jack Hughes and Timo Meier. They have Tatar and Noesen to replace Toffoli, and the only real loss that has not been adequately replaced is Michael McLeod and his unique skills both as a defensive forward and as a faceoff man. Those skills will be missed, for sure, but in terms of goal production, the loss of McLeod’s defensive game is not killer. The faceoffs can cost this team a handful of goals over 82 games, but not enough to really tank this offense in any serious fashion.

Given that knowledge, and assuming decent health, I have to think we should be expecting a rebound. Two seasons ago, this was the 4th best offense in the NHL, and the talent is there to reach those heights again. I’m not saying we should expect this to be a top 5 offense at the end of the season, but it is not out of the realm of possibility either, and I don’t think it would shock anyone were it to happen. However, I think we should expect this to be a top 10 offense with potential for more. If they end the season outside the top 10 in terms of goals scored, that would be a disappointment without question.

Individually, we should expect a nice rebound from Timo Meier too, as he showed late last season that, when healthy, he is a great addition to this top line. If he is playing at full health, it would not be out of the realm to see this offense have four forwards score at least a point per game. Hughes, Bratt, Hischier, and Meier are all capable of that, and all of them could reach those heights if this offense is humming. Outside of the top 4, we need to see quality seasons from the middle 6 as well, especially guys like Haula, Noesen, Tatar, and especially Mercer. Mercer needs to show improvement and show everyone that he is not stagnating with his game, but that he can actually still project to be a second line guy instead of a bottom 6 center with speed. Given the success that Sheldon Keefe has had in Toronto with high scoring offenses and good regular seasons, it is not unreasonable to expect good things from these players. Let’s hope it happens.

Conclusion

In the end, while last season was a down one overall in all aspects, the forward group was arguably the group that took the smallest step backward. They still remained a top 12 offense in terms of goal production, and that should be playoff-worthy. This season, with a healthy Hughes and Meier back, plus some nice additions in Tatar and Noesen, we should see an offense that oce again ends in the top 10. It might not be a top 4 offense like it was two seasons ago, although that is not impossible either. But if this offense is top 10 at season’s end, the Devils should be a playoff team given the improvements that have taken place on defense and in net. Anything else would be a massive disappointment for this young and very talented squad.

What do you think about this Devils’ forward group heading into the season? Are you also high on them, or do you think the group still has holes that need to be addressed? Who are you most excited about, and who do you think could be a sleeper candidate to really perform above expectations? What is the best-case scenario for this group, and what is the worst? Please leave your comments below, and thanks for reading the forward preview today! Please come back each of the next several days to check out all of our previews here at All About The Jersey!