Polling is giving observers a clearer picture of what to expect on Election Day as voters cast their ballots.
Key elections in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City and California could hold big implications for what to expect in next year’s midterms.
Here’s what the polling tells us about Tuesday’s major races:
Virginia
Throughout Virginia’s gubernatorial campaign, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) has maintained a solid lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R). The latest Emerson College/The Hill survey, released Saturday, showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 55 percent to 44 percent. Spanberger improved her standing by 3 points in the poll, while Earle-Sears improved her standing by 2 points.
The polling average from The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ has Spanberger up nearly 10 points over Earle-Sears.
However, the most closely watched race in the state this cycle is the attorney general contest. The race was always seen as one of the closer statewide races in Virginia, given Attorney General Jason Miyares’s status as an incumbent and fundraising advantage. Democratic nominee Jay Jones, however, still held a narrow lead over Miyares.
That all changed in early October when texts sent by Jones in 2022 surfaced in which he talked about inflicting violence on former state House Speaker Todd Gilbert (R). Jones apologized for the texts, but polls show the scandal has narrowed the Democrat’s chances at ousting the Republican attorney general.
The same Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Saturday shows Jones leading Miyares 49 percent to 47 percent, well within the poll’s 3.2 point margin of error. Meanwhile, a Roanoke College poll released last week showed Miyares with an 8-point lead over Jones.
New Jersey
Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) leads her Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli, but the race is close enough that some Democrats are sweating.
The Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average shows Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 50.1 percent to 45.5 percent. A Suffolk University poll released last week shows Sherrill with a 4-point lead, while an AtlasIntel poll also released last week showed Sherrill up 1 point over Ciattarelli.
The race comes a year after President Trump made notable gains in the blue-leaning state. Trump lost New Jersey to former Vice President Kamala Harris by just less than 6 points, a marked improvement from 2020 when he lost the state to former President Biden by nearly 16 points.
Ciattarelli also performed better than expected in his race against Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in 2021, losing by roughly 3 points.
New York City
Polls suggest Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani is well on his way to becoming mayor of New York City. Mamdani began the mayor’s race as a relatively unknown figure but has skyrocketed in stature following his surprise win in the Democratic primary.
Strategies to stop Mamdani’s support from growing have continuously been floated throughout the campaign. The city’s incumbent Mayor Eric Adams dropped his bid for reelection and eventually backed former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s independent bid. Republican Curtis Sliwa has also faced calls to drop his bid, with critics arguing that his presence in the race benefits Mamdani because he takes votes away from Cuomo.
Despite Cuomo’s high name ID and warnings about Mamdani’s far-left policy platform, Mamdani has only continued to consolidate support in the Democratic enclave. According to the DDHQ polling average, Mamdani leads the field with 44.6 percent, followed by Cuomo at 31.6 percent, and Sliwa at 18.6 percent.
However, Cuomo’s allies were somewhat heartened over the weekend when an AtlasIntel poll showed Cuomo appearing to close the gap with Mamdani. The poll showed Mamdani leading Cuomo 40.6 percent to 34 percent ahead of Election Day.
California
Proposition 50, the ballot measure backed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) that would establish new congressional district maps that temporarily override the state’s independent redistricting committee, appears to be on a glide path to passing. The measure would allow Newsom and the state’s Democrats to move forward with redistricting efforts ahead of next year’s midterms in an effort to counter Republican-led efforts in Texas.
The measure has gotten some pushback, including from former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), but has proven to be widely popular in the state. An Emerson College Polling survey released last month found that 57 percent of likely voters in the state said they backed the measure while 37 percent said they did not support it. A separate CBS News/YouGov poll showed an even larger margin, with 62 percent of respondents saying they would vote yes on the measure and 38 percent saying they would vote no.
Newsom is so confident the measure will pass that last week he told supporters to stop donating to the effort.
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