Montana
An influx of outsiders and money turns Montana Republican, culminating in a Senate triumph
BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — Democrats’ crushing loss in Montana’s nationally important U.S. Senate race settled a fierce political debate over whether a surge of newcomers in the past decade favored Republicans — and if one of the new arrivals could even take high office.
Voters answered both questions with an emphatic “yes” with Tim Sheehy’s defeat of three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, helping deliver a GOP Senate majority and laying bare a drastic cultural shift in a state that long prided itself on electing home-grown candidates based on personal qualifications, not party affiliation.
It’s the first time in almost a century that one party totally dominates in Montana. Corporations and mining barons known as the Copper Kings once had a corrupt chokehold on the state’s politics, and an aversion to outsiders that arose from those times has faded, replaced by a partisan fervor that Republicans capitalized on during the election.
Tester, a moderate lawmaker and third-generation grain farmer from humble Big Sandy, Montana, lost to wealthy aerospace entrepreneur Sheehy, a staunch supporter of President-elect Donald Trump who arrived in Montana 10 years ago and bought a house in the ritzy resort community of Big Sky.
“The political culture in Montana has changed fundamentally over the past 10 to 15 years,” said University of Montana history professor Jeff Wiltse. “The us vs. them, Montanans vs. outsiders mentality that has a long history in Montana has significantly weakened.”
What to know about Trump’s second term:
Follow all of our coverage as Donald Trump assembles his second administration.
The state’s old instinct for choosing its own, regardless of party, gave way to larger trends that began more than a decade ago and accelerated during the pandemic.
Job opportunities in mining, logging and railroad work — once core Democratic constituencies — dried up. Newcomers, many drawn by the state’s natural social distancing, came in droves — with almost 52,000 new arrivals since 2020. That’s almost as many as the entire prior decade, according to U.S. Census data. As the population changed, national issues such as immigration and gender identity came to dominate political attention, distracting from local issues.
The 2024 Senate race brought a record-setting flood of outside money on both sides — more than $315 million, much of it from shadowy groups with wealthy donors. That effectively erased Montana’s efforts over more than a century to limit corporate cash in politics.
Sheehy’s win came after the party ran the table in recent Montana elections where voters installed other wealthy Republicans including Gov. Greg Gianforte, U.S. Sen. Steve Daines and U.S. Rep.-elect Troy Downing.
Daines is the only one of the group originally from Montana — once a virtual requirement for gaining high office in the state.
Apple-flavored whiskey and Champagne
The contrast between Montana’s old and new politics was on vivid display on election night. Tester’s party was a sedate event at the Best Western Inn in Great Falls — rooms for $142 a night — where the lawmaker mingled with a few dozen supporters and sipped on apple-flavored whiskey in a plastic cup.
Sheehy’s more boisterous affair was in Bozeman — the epicenter of Montana’s new wealth — at an upscale hotel where a standard room costs $395. Long before his victory was announced, carts bearing Champagne were rolled in as the candidate remained sequestered in a secure balcony area most of the night with select supporters.
Sheehy, a former U.S. Navy SEAL from Minnesota, moved to Montana after leaving the military and, along with his brother, founded Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting company that depends on government contracts. Sheehy also bought a ranch in the Little Belt Mountains, and during the campaign cast himself as the modern equivalent of an early western settler seeking opportunity.
Tester received 22,000 more votes on Nov. 5 than in his last election — a gain that exceeded his margin of victory in previous wins. Yet for every additional Tester voter, Sheehy gained several more. The result was a resounding eight-point win for the Republican, removing Democrats from the last statewide office they still held in Montana.
For Republicans, it completed their domination of states stretching from the Northern Plains to the Rocky Mountains.
“We have North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Utah — we’re all kind of red now,” said Montana Republican Party Chairman Don Kaltschmidt.
Democrats as recently as 2007 held a majority of Senate seats in the Northern Plains and almost every statewide office in Montana.
Daines — who led GOP efforts to retake the Senate as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee — pointed out during Sheehy’s election party that Republicans would control both Montana Senate seats for the first time in more than a century.
‘Conservative refugees’
Tester and other Democrats bemoan the wealth that’s transformed the state. It’s most conspicuous in areas like Big Sky and Kalispell, where multimillion-dollar homes occupy the surrounding mountainsides while throngs of service workers struggle to find housing.
It’s not quite the same as the Copper Kings — who at their peak controlled elected officials from both major parties — but Democrats see parallels.
“What do they say — history doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes,” said Monica Tranel, the defeated Democratic candidate in a western Montana House district. “It is very evocative of what happened in the early 1900s. It’s very much a time of change and turmoil and who has a voice.”
Montana in 2022 gained a second House seat due to population growth over the prior decade, giving Democrats a chance to regain clout. After a narrow loss that year to former Trump Interior Sec. Ryan Zinke, Tranel ran again this year and lost.
Even as she turned to history to explain Montana’s contemporary political dynamic, Tranel considered the future. She acknowledged that Democrats have fallen out of step with a conservative electorate more attuned to party labels.
“The label itself is what they are reacting to,” she said. “Do we need a different party at this point?”
Republican officials embraced wealthy newcomers.
Steve Kelly, 66, who calls himself a “conservative refugee,” moved to northwestern Montana from Nevada at the height of the pandemic. He spent most of his 30-year career in law enforcement in Reno, but said he tired of the city as it grew and became more liberal — “San Francisco East,” he called it.
In 2020, Kelly and his wife bought a house outside Kalispell on a few acres so they could have horses. He got involved with the local Republican party and this fall won a seat in the state Legislature on an anti-illegal immigration platform.
“It seems to be different here. Most of the people we have met have also been conservative refugees, getting away from other cities,” he said.
Driving the growth are transplants from western states dominated by Democrats, especially California, where more than 85,000 Montana residents originated, or about 7.5% of the population, Census data shows. Almost half of Montana residents were born out of state.
Worker wages in Montana have been stagnant for decades, said Megan Lawson with the independent research group Headwaters Economics in Bozeman. Income from stocks, real estate and other investments has risen sharply, reflecting the changing — and wealthier — demographic.
“Certainly a large share of it is coming from folks who are moving into this state,” Lawson said. “When you put all this together it helps to explain the story of the political shift.”
___
Associated Press reporter Michael Schneider in Orlando, Florida, contributed to this report.
The Montana Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big.
Here’s a look at June 20, 2026, results for each game:
Winning Powerball numbers from June 20 drawing
16-20-44-48-50, Powerball: 15, Power Play: 2
Check Powerball payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Lotto America numbers from June 20 drawing
08-14-31-41-52, Star Ball: 04, ASB: 03
Check Lotto America payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Big Sky Bonus numbers from June 20 drawing
09-22-25-26, Bonus: 11
Check Big Sky Bonus payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Montana Cash numbers from June 20 drawing
05-22-28-30-34
Check Montana Cash payouts and previous drawings here.
Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results
When are the Montana Lottery drawings held?
- Powerball: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Mega Millions: 9 p.m. MT on Tuesday and Friday.
- Lucky For Life: 8:38 p.m. MT daily.
- Lotto America: 9 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.
- Big Sky Bonus: 7:30 p.m. MT daily.
- Powerball Double Play: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Montana Cash: 8 p.m. MT on Wednesday and Saturday.
- Millionaire for Life: 9:15 p.m. MT daily.
Missed a draw? Peek at the past week’s winning numbers.
This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Great Falls Tribune editor. You can send feedback using this form.
Montana
Planning For Life After Coal Cost a Montana County Commissioner His Seat – Inside Climate News
Robert Pancratz couldn’t believe it.
The Musselshell County commissioner had been defeated in the Republican primary for his seat by a two-to-one margin earlier this month. Mark Olson, who lives in Musselshell and serves as the undersheriff in Golden Valley County, won by 26 percentage points.
“That just blew me away,” Pancratz said. “All of my campaign, I had not a hint that there was that much opposition.”
At stake, from Pancratz’s perspective, is the fiscal future of his community, which includes Roundup, Montana, home to Montana’s only longwall coal mine. The mine, owned and operated by Signal Peak Energy, sits on the eastern side of the continental divide in a staunchly conservative part of the state, where its presence provides jobs and its profits generate taxable revenue for local governments. (The vast majority of its coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, goes to markets in Asia.)
But that revenue could potentially be diminished by tens of millions, according to calculations by Pancratz, if a bill introduced by U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., passes Congress. The Crow Revenue Act would convey federally held coal to Signal Peak through a land transfer to a private intermediary, depriving Musselshell County of its share of the taxes Signal Peak Energy pays to mine coal on federal land.
If the Crow Revenue Act does not pass Congress, Signal Peak says it could be forced to shut down if it loses a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana challenging the “energy emergency” the Trump administration used to grant the mine access to federal coal. That outcome would wipe out all the mine’s tax revenue and hundreds of jobs, the company claims. This month’s election hinged on Pancratz’s position on the bill and, by extension, the mine.
Musselshell County’s three commissioners, Mike Goffena, Mike Turley and Pancratz support keeping the mine open. But they also fear Musselshell County would need to raise taxes and cut services to balance its books if the Crow Revenue Act passes as written. After studying the county’s finances, Pancratz, who works as a risk analyst consultant, concluded that the county could lose as much as $11.6 million if the Crow Revenue Act passes and the price of coal is high. The commissioners have lobbied for changes to the bill that would guarantee the county some revenue from the land transfer.
Pancratz says he was just doing his job.
“As a risk manager, I have to develop a contingency plan for the possibility that the long-term stream of coal revenue could be disrupted or ended,” he said. “We needed to have a plan to effectively transition to other revenue sources. When I used the word transition, they took that as I was an environmentalist that was against coal.”
“Why anybody would have a problem with that is baffling to me. But that’s what happened.”
According to Pancratz, Signal Peak Energy branded the men as environmentalists who want to see the company shut down forever and this willful mischaracterization played a large role in his defeat.
“The picture they painted of me was totally false,” he said.
In a recording of a commissioner meeting posted to a local Facebook group by a Signal Peak Energy employee less than a month before the election, Pancratz, Goffena and Turley can be heard strategizing how to express their concerns about the Crow Revenue Act to Daines, whom they describe as unresponsive to their concerns.
Pancratz suggests asking for a $100 million endowment to transition from coal to “scare” Daines and Signal Peak Energy. Turley states that with funding at that level, they wouldn’t care if the mine was open or not.
“Exactly,” Pancratz responded.
Comments on the video show viewers expressing outrage that the commissioners would “play chicken” with the future of the mine, which provides hundreds of jobs in the surrounding area.
This story is funded by readers like you.
Our nonprofit newsroom provides award-winning climate coverage free of charge and advertising. We rely on donations from readers like you to keep going. Please donate now to support our work.
Donate Now
Pancratz said the conversation was recorded without the commissioners’ knowledge. Montana is a two-party consent state, meaning all parties must be aware of and consent to a recording, but he allowed that it was possible one of the commissioners forgot to close a virtual public meeting after it concluded.
Pancratz said the conversation occurred when the commissioners found out there would be no money in the Crow Revenue Act for the county. The bill’s supporters, including Signal Peak Energy, had told them that the county would not lose any revenue under the bill, he said.
“We were upset because we felt we’d been lied to,” Pancratz said.
Signal Peak Energy did not respond to a written message and phone call seeking comment. For a time after Signal Peak took over the mine in the late 2000s, it was plagued by malfeasance, including embezzlement, a faked kidnapping and safety and environmental violations, according to reporting by The New York Times.
Olson said he entered the race due to a “lack of transparency” from the commissioners over how the county was spending its money.
But the mine played a role in his decision to run, too. As he was weighing his options, Olson said his cousin, Alan Olson, a former state legislator and former executive director of the Montana Petroleum Association, visited him and urged him to run to support the mine. After that conversation, he was convinced the mine’s survival depended on the Crow Revenue Act passing, and that trying to amend it would jeopardize the legislation.
“The more money we can get for the county, the better, but I don’t think it’s worth risking the mine closing,” Olson said. Losing federal revenue was better than losing all the jobs and the tax base if the mine closes, he concluded.
Olson added that Parker Phipps, Signal Peak Energy’s CEO, has briefed him on the mine’s fiscal relationship with Musselshell County.
Olson’s background in law enforcement could add a new perspective to the county commissioner meetings, given Goffena and Turley’s background in ranching, he said, but the minutiae of the county’s budget will be new to him.
“I am by no means an expert in any of this stuff,” he said.
Some worry that, with the mine facing a lawsuit, an unpredictable global coal market and the uncertain future of the Crow Revenue Act, the commissioners cannot afford to lose momentum in their efforts to attract new industries to the area.
Olson’s win in the primary will “set [economic diversification planning] back long term,” Nicole Borner, a former Musselshell County commissioner, who thinks Olson was hand-picked by the Signal Peak Energy to run and is not informed about what the job entails.
“We will always just have a few crumbs to duct tape a few issues,” she said. “We’ll never be able to fix the prior forty years of being in a coal bust and our infrastructure just literally falling apart.”
Olson will likely run unopposed in the general election.
In his remaining time in office, Pancratz said he will continue to push for economic diversification in Musselshell County. He holds no animosity towards Olson, who calls Pancratz “a wonderful guy.” Instead, he laments not addressing concerns over his position on the mine sooner in the campaign. But he believes Signal Peak Energy’s political and social influence—the company operates a charity in the region—is what swayed the election.
“You can’t say anything that even remotely implies that you’re trying to prepare the county for the possibility that coal revenue may not be steady or high … There’s this attitude that the county is in debt to that coal mine. And the message I tried to get out is, it’s more the reverse,” Pancratz said.
“I personally don’t believe the mine really cares about the county.”
About This Story
Perhaps you noticed: This story, like all the news we publish, is free to read. That’s because Inside Climate News is a 501c3 nonprofit organization. We do not charge a subscription fee, lock our news behind a paywall, or clutter our website with ads. We make our news on climate and the environment freely available to you and anyone who wants it.
That’s not all. We also share our news for free with scores of other media organizations around the country. Many of them can’t afford to do environmental journalism of their own. We’ve built bureaus from coast to coast to report local stories, collaborate with local newsrooms and co-publish articles so that this vital work is shared as widely as possible.
Two of us launched ICN in 2007. Six years later we earned a Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting, and now we run the oldest and largest dedicated climate newsroom in the nation. We tell the story in all its complexity. We hold polluters accountable. We expose environmental injustice. We debunk misinformation. We scrutinize solutions and inspire action.
Donations from readers like you fund every aspect of what we do. If you don’t already, will you support our ongoing work, our reporting on the biggest crisis facing our planet, and help us reach even more readers in more places?
Please take a moment to make a tax-deductible donation. Every one of them makes a difference.
Thank you,
Jake Bolster
Reporter, Wyoming and the West
Jake Bolster reports on Wyoming and the West for Inside Climate News. Previously, he worked as a freelancer, covering climate change, energy, and the environment across the United States. He holds a Masters in Journalism from Columbia University.
The Montana Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big.
Here’s a look at June 19, 2026, results for each game:
Winning Mega Millions numbers from June 19 drawing
13-16-21-26-50, Mega Ball: 12
Check Mega Millions payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Big Sky Bonus numbers from June 19 drawing
05-12-14-30, Bonus: 03
Check Big Sky Bonus payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Millionaire for Life numbers from June 19 drawing
02-20-28-51-54, Bonus: 02
Check Millionaire for Life payouts and previous drawings here.
Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results
When are the Montana Lottery drawings held?
- Powerball: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Mega Millions: 9 p.m. MT on Tuesday and Friday.
- Lucky For Life: 8:38 p.m. MT daily.
- Lotto America: 9 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.
- Big Sky Bonus: 7:30 p.m. MT daily.
- Powerball Double Play: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Montana Cash: 8 p.m. MT on Wednesday and Saturday.
- Millionaire for Life: 9:15 p.m. MT daily.
Missed a draw? Peek at the past week’s winning numbers.
This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Great Falls Tribune editor. You can send feedback using this form.
-
Michigan22 seconds agoInsider: Shaky polls cause uproar in Michigan Senate, governor races
-
Massachusetts5 minutes agoSwimmer pulled from Houghton’s Pond after search
-
Minnesota12 minutes agoAurora clinches division championship with 4-1 win over River Light
-
Mississippi15 minutes agoMississippi Lottery Mississippi Match 5, Cash 3 results for June 20, 2026
-
Missouri20 minutes agoSilverfield Might Have Master Plan For Arkansas to Finally Take Down Missouri
-
Montana27 minutes ago
Montana Lottery Powerball, Lotto America results for June 20, 2026
-
Nebraska30 minutes agoPhotos: Nebraska Athletics unveils new Adidas uniforms
-
Nevada35 minutes agoNEVADA VIEWS: Choosing a school for your child? Here’s what you need to know
