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Why New Hampshire is the most likely state where Trump could lose a primary | CNN Politics

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Why New Hampshire is the most likely state where Trump could lose a primary | CNN Politics




CNN
 — 

Former President Donald Trump is a heavy favorite to win the 2024 Republican nomination. He’s getting over 60% in a number of national surveys of the GOP primary and holds the advantage in every early state that’s been polled.

Yet, recent data and history suggest that Trump may be in more trouble than is apparent at first glance in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire. Granite State Republicans, for whom Trump is not their first choice, seem to be searching for an alternative and may not settle on one until late in the campaign.

Take a look at CNN’s most recent survey of the state’s GOP primary conducted by the University of New Hampshire. Trump led the field with 39%, while no one else was anywhere close. Four candidates (businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis) were all between 10% and 13% of the primary vote.

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The poll was devastating news for DeSantis, who has seen his numbers plummet this year. He had led the field with 42% in UNH’s January poll but has been tumbling since.

Trump, meanwhile, is as steady as he has ever been. Each of the last three UNH polls taken of the race had him between 37% and 42% of the vote.

This makes New Hampshire unique. Unlike his national standing, Trump is well under 50% here. He doesn’t even clear 50% when you take into account voters’ second choices.

The 39% Trump registered in the poll among voters’ first choices is less than the 46% he received in Fox Business polls released this past week in the early-voting states of Iowa and South Carolina.

It’s pretty clear that Trump can be beaten in New Hampshire, if the roughly 60% who aren’t with him now rally behind one candidate.

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That’s easier said than done, but I think it’s possible given the data we have.

The fact that Trump’s share of the New Hampshire primary vote remains flat is notable. It shows that his voters are locked in but he isn’t gaining.

Not surprisingly, Trump supporters are far more likely to say they have definitely decided (69%) than supporters of the other candidates (18%).

And that’s certainly bad news for any individual non-Trump candidate, who can’t count on guaranteed support come primary time.

But looking at it another way: This also means there’s a large chunk of the New Hampshire Republican electorate searching for an alternative to Trump. That’s why 82% of the voters selecting someone besides Trump are not all-in for their candidate at this moment.

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They may want to wait until the most viable alternative to Trump appears and then back that person. We don’t know whether such a candidate will emerge, but it’s plausible. Amid DeSantis’ big decline in the UNH polling, Christie, Haley and Ramaswamy have all made their first appearances in the double digits.

We’ve seen this happen before with Trump. Think back to the 2016 Iowa caucuses. Trump basically got what he was polling at this point in the cycle, finishing second. The eventual first- and third-place finishers in Iowa (Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio) were polling in the single digits at this time.

This go-around, New Hampshire would be the perfect place for an upset of a heavy favorite.

Nationally, there’s never been a candidate who lost a primary after holding as large a polling lead as Trump has now. It has happened in New Hampshire, however, and not that long ago.

In the 2000 cycle, Republican front-runner George W. Bush was at 45% of the vote in UNH polling at this time. He was followed by Elizabeth Dole at 15% and John McCain at 12%. Dole ended her campaign before New Hampshire voted.

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McCain, though, went on to beat Bush, 49% to 30%.

The Arizona senator was able to win, mostly on the backs of moderate and independent voters. That’s likely what a Trump challenger would need to do to catch him. We know from surveys that Trump is weakest with these voters. The UNH poll has Trump at 23% among moderates, 23% among self-identified independents (or Democrats) and 14% among those not registered with the Republican Party.

These are voting blocs that play a bigger role in New Hampshire primaries than in any of the other early-voting states, thanks to the Granite State’s more moderate overall electorate and the fact that independents can vote in the primaries. In 2016, New Hampshire GOP primary voters were twice as likely to identify as moderates and independents than Iowa Republican caucusgoers.

And keep this in mind: The winner of the Iowa GOP caucuses rarely wins the New Hampshire GOP primary. In fact, it’s never happened in the modern primary era when a sitting president was not competing in the Republican primaries.

Of course, even if someone emerges to be the John McCain of 2024, it might not do them any good in the long run. After all, Bush recovered from his New Hampshire loss to end up claiming the Republican nomination in 2000.

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New Hampshire is just a building block to beating Trump. It will take a lot more.



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New Hampshire

A Chance Of Showers’ All Week Long In New Hampshire — But Fun Stuff To Do

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A Chance Of Showers’ All Week Long In New Hampshire — But Fun Stuff To Do


CONCORD, NH — Weather forecasters are warning of “a chance of showers” or “showers likely” for most of the week in the Granite State.

On Monday, expect patchy fog in some areas of the state, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low 50s to upper 60s. Overnight, there is a 30 percent “chance of showers,” according to the National Weather Service.

On Tuesday, another 30 percent “chance of showers,” mainly after 2 p.m., but otherwise sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Wind gusts could reach 20 mph. Showers are “likely” after 8 p.m. with temps in the mid-50s.

The rain is expected to “likely” continue into Wednesday day and evening with temps in the lower 50s and upper 60s.

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Another “chance of showers” is expected on Thursday morning and early afternoon before becoming partly sunny with temps between the upper 40s and the upper 60s.

Partly sunny skies are expected on Friday, but there is a “chance of showers” on Saturday and Sunday.

The latest weather conditions can be found on the front page of every Patch.com site in the United States, including the 14 New Hampshire Patch news and community websites covering Amherst, Bedford, Concord, Exeter, Hampton, Londonderry, Manchester, Merrimack, Milford, Nashua, North Hampton, Portsmouth, Salem, Windham, and Across NH. Local weather reports for New Hampshire are posted on Sundays and Thursdays. Alerts are published when needed.



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How removal of a Durham historical marker sparked debate about who gets to write history

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How removal of a Durham historical marker sparked debate about who gets to write history


Three hundred and thirty years ago, a group of English settlers and allied French and Wabanaki soldiers battled near the Oyster River, in what is now Durham, leaving about 100 settlers dead.

While those bare facts were first commemorated on a historical marker decades ago, the story behind the battle – including where the blame lies, what led to the conflict, and which group suffered more – is still up for debate as Durham residents have been working to erect what they hope will be a more accurate marker describing the deadliest event in the town’s history.

A committee of residents and representatives from several local and state agencies have spent months in lengthy roundtable discussions, struggling to agree on the words to best describe this colonial-era conflict. The conversations became so contentious that town leaders brought in mediators to help find consensus.

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“I don’t think at the end of this process that we are going to have resolved what happened in 1694,” said facilitator Barbara Will at a meeting earlier this year. “I think what we’ll find at the end of this process is that we have come together as a community to give our best interpretation of what happened and the context within which it happened.”

Now, the story of what came to be known as the “Oyster River Massacre” has the chance to be presented in a new way – as long as it can be encapsulated into just a few dozen words while also touching on issues of Indigenous identity, historical memory and the legacy of colonialism.

An abrupt removal sparks debate

The current debate over how to properly commemorate the battle began in 2021, when the state of New Hampshire removed the historical marker that had stood near Durham’s town hall for decades.

In a revision form filed with the New Hampshire Division of Historical Resources, members of the state’s Commission on Native American Affairs had flagged the sign’s language as problematic and suggested revising it.

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The original historical marker described the battle as an attack in which a French soldier led 250 “Indians” in a “raid” on the English settlements in the area, “killing or capturing approximately 100 settlers, destroying five garrison houses and numerous dwellings.” It also described the event as “the most devastating French and Indian raid in New Hampshire during King William’s War,” a conflict between France and England over control of North American territories in which the Wabanki people allied with the French.

In a few short bullet points, the Native American Affairs Commission said the sign lacked context, called the language “insulting or derogatory” and asked: “Devastating for whom?”

The former director of the Durham Historical Association, who was not involved in the roundtable discussions, said the complaints outlined by the Commission on Native American Affairs were the only information the association was given as to why the sign was removed, and the only guidance they had for suggesting a revision. The form didn’t include any suggestions for what should be on the sign instead.

“We were always working in the dark, not knowing specifically what the issues with the original sign were,” David Strong said.

Contested identity

The Commission on Native American Affairs is composed of New Hampshire residents who are tasked with representing Indigenous people in the state. But the Indigenous identity of one member, who was a part of flagging the Oyster River marker for revision, is contested.

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Denise Pouliot describes herself as the head female speaker of the Cowasuck Band of the Pennacook Abenaki People. She was also selected to participate in the roundtable discussions in Durham as a representative of the Indigenous community.

“My presence here is very simple,” Pouliot said in January. “I want to make sure that the Indigenous history of the past is included in these signs. These signs are primarily constructed of colonial perspectives.”

However, as a 2023 NHPR investigation found, there is no evidence to support Pouliot’s claim of Abenaki heritage, as leaders of the Odanak First Nation in Canada and scholars on Indigenous identity have said for years. Pouliot continues to assert that she does have Abenaki ancestry, although she declined to provide any family names or documentation to corroborate her claims.

During the roundtables in Durham, Pouliot insisted on using oral histories to recount the events of the massacre, and has claimed to personally know the history of that era.

“We were here first,” Pouliot said at a February meeting. “We were hunting and fishing and living in these locations and you came in and forced us out by gunpoint. And that’s the story that really should be told if you want to talk about really encompassing the true history of the region. But I don’t see a plaque for that anywhere, and I don’t see anywhere trying to fight for that level of truth.”

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While none of the roundtable participants have publicly questioned Pouliot’s ancestry claims, Carolyn Singer of the Durham Historic District and Heritage Commission has stressed the importance of using primary and secondary sources when constructing the language for the sign, instead of a sole reliance on oral histories. She said the Heritage Commission had used primary sources in its draft, but that she had not seen evidence of documentation in iterations suggested by other groups, including that of the Commission on Native American Affairs.

“Language has already been suggested,” Singer said, referring to the draft from the Commission on Native American Affairs. “A narrative has already been suggested, so we should have a document to back up that narrative.”

Durham Town Administrator Todd Selig has a longstanding relationship with Pouliot and her husband, Paul Pouliot, who is also a co-speaker of her group. When asked about Denise Pouliot’s involvement in the process as a representative of the Indigenous community, despite a lack of evidence of her connection to that community, Selig said he had no problem with her presence at the table. Selig said over the years, he’s valued the couple’s contributions to Durham.

“To the extent the Pouliots have been involved in Durham, it’s generally been helpful,” Selig said.

‘A deeper sense of history’

The roundtable panelists began with three versions of the text for the new marker suggested by different groups. The group debated each option until, eventually, they combined and whittled them down to one.

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Panelist Steve Eames was there as a representative of the Durham Historical Association. He’s a historian who focused his research on warfare on the New England frontier in the 17th century. He saw problems with all three versions.

For example, Eames and others around the table debated what to call the event, which has for years been referred to as a “massacre.”

“One person’s ‘massacre’ is another person’s ‘successful attack,’” Eames said. “But if we’re trying to remember the trauma, we can’t leave out the trauma.”

Another sticking point was the theft of Wabanaki land by European settlers and colonization that precipitated the massacre. One draft included the phrase “questionable treaty” to describe the Treaty at Pemaquid, a 1693 peace and trade treaty between the English and the Indigenous tribes in the area.

“I mean, from a historian’s point of view, that treaty, as all the treaties were, were ‘questionable’ because you had a culture that had a written language dealing with a culture that had no written language,” Eames said.

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Others countered, asking: For whom was the treaty “questionable” and what does that really mean?

Ideas continued to swirl about the specific language on the sign and perspectives it should include. The Durham Historic Association, which sponsored the original marker, was represented at the table by Janet Mackie, who suggested the voices of the early settlers of Durham be featured on the new sign.

“There are still people living in Durham today whose ancestors were massacred,” Mackie said in a mediated session, though no one claiming familial ties to those killed spoke at the meetings.

Nadine Miller represented the state’s Department of Transportation. She agreed at a January meeting that both Indigenous and settler perspectives should be featured.

“I would think in a town where I was living and I had young children, I would find a sign would be a really great educational opportunity for young children to go to and talk with their parents about,” Miller said. “And in my mind, for my child, I would want them to know both sides of a story.”

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Selig, the Durham town administrator, watched the process from the start. He says final wording has been sent to the state for approval, and he’s glad the sign will be back up, though it is unclear how soon that will happen. He said he and many others consider the “Oyster River Massacre” a seminal moment in Durham’s history, an event that could have wiped Durham from the map in its infancy.

“Controversies like this offer an opportunity to demand attention to an issue, to a topic. And while we have people’s attention, it helps to instill a deeper sense of history and appreciation for that history and the complexity of that history,” Selig said.

After the group’s last meeting in March, they agreed on a final version, one that was put together by the Durham Historical Association. It omitted the word “Indian,” named Wabanaki leaders who were there, and didn’t implicate them in the breaking of the peace treaty, rather that they were convinced to do so by the French. The title also no longer includes the word “massacre.” Instead, it was replaced by a dispatch sent to Boston after the attack: “Oyster River… is Layd Waste”

As the culmination of years of background conversations and more than six hours of facilitated debate over every word, the Durham Historical Association’s version was sent to the state Division of Historical Resources. Despite originally suggesting the community conversations, the state countered with its own version and turned it over to the panelists for review and sign-off. They’ll have to find consensus — again — before it’s sent to the foundry where the text will be cast in metal. If they don’t, the state can move forward with its own version, just as they would’ve if the conversations hadn’t happened at all.

Much of the debate was about what really happened in 1694, and — most of all — why such violence felt warranted. But for some, if the picture of that early morning at Oyster River isn’t captured in full, the sign isn’t worth being there at all.

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“If the final decision is to write a sign or to finalize a sign that’s not based on the facts, then I hope the sign never goes back up,” David Strong said.

These articles are being shared by partners in the Granite State News Collaborative. For more information, visit collaborativenh.org.



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Local Event: Kittery Community Market

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Local Event: Kittery Community Market


Mark your calendars for June 2nd, the awaited kickoff of the regular season at Kittery Community Market! Be part of the excitement as we showcase an impressive lineup of over 35 vendors, accompanied by the captivating sounds of live music courtesy of Lee Biddle. Plus, delight in the enchanting performances of magic and balloon art by Sages Entertainment, adding an extra touch of magic to your market experience. Don’t miss out on this unforgettable day!

When: Sunday, June 2nd from 10 am – 2 pm
Where
: 10 Shapleigh Rd, Kittery Me 03904

The Kittery Community Market 2024 season runs every Sunday from June 2nd through November 24th. Each week we will be featuring 30+ vendors, live music, kid’s activities and special guests.

Voucher Programs:
– Kid’s Power of Produce Program
– Maine Harvest Bucks (SNAP & EBT)
-Bumper Crop
-Vouchers for Veterans (September)

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Look forward to finding flowers, seedlings, produce, meat & fish, prepared foods, baked goods, artisan crafts, all-natural soaps & skincare, and knife & tool sharpening all season long!

June 2nd VendorsTBA

Music: Lee Biddle
Nonprofit: TBA
Special Guest: Sages Entertainment
Footprints Food Panty Food Drive

Kid’s Activity – Scavenger Hunt

Nestled in Post Office Square’s parking lot, the Kittery Community Market seamlessly merges with the inviting outdoor seating areas of Tributary Brewing Company and Blue Mermaid, evoking a lively block party atmosphere. Enhance your day by enjoying brunch at Blue Mermaid, exploring the offerings at Kittery Community Market, and rounding off your afternoon with a refreshing beer at Tributary Brewing Co!

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Kittery Community Market accepts SNAP & EBT and participates in Maine Harvest Bucks.2024 

Sponsors
Beach Pea Baking Co, Blue Mermaid, Tributary Brewing Co, Aland Realty, Kittery Trading Post, Sages Entertainment, Coastal Fitness Yoga East, Kennebunk Savings, Tapley Insurance, Alice and Bird Interiors

Thank you to the Logan’s for hosting the Kittery Community Market at Post Office Square!



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