New Hampshire
Nikki Haley keeps one eye on Iowa as she seeks to win New Hampshire primary
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley faces a unique challenge in the final two weeks before the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses.
She must simultaneously woo Iowans who could give her an added boost above rival Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) while stumping in New Hampshire, where independent voters could help her defeat former President Donald Trump, the front-runner, in the state’s primary on Jan. 23.
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Unlike DeSantis and to a lesser extent Trump, Haley has not staked her 2024 campaign on winning the Iowa caucuses. She has instead placed a sizable emphasis on New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina. But given Iowa’s outsize advantage in the primary, a strong showing there will be crucial in her bid to replace DeSantis as the only viable alternative candidate to Trump.
The Florida governor has gone all in for Iowa, campaigning in all 99 counties and positioning himself for an outright win or a strong second-place finish behind Trump. Haley’s campaign and allies are covertly hoping a second-place finish in Iowa would steal momentum away from DeSantis ahead of the New Hampshire primary, where Haley is hoping for a second-place finish or better as well.
“I think the expectations for Haley in Iowa are appropriately less, but if she can overperform there, then I think she’s got, I think, a strong team waiting for her in New Hampshire led by the most popular Republican in the state,” said Jim Merrill, a seasoned New Hampshire GOP strategist, of Haley and the support of Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH). “And then she’s going to go to her home state in South Carolina. So it feels like a pretty shrewd strategy that they’re executing here with the final two weeks.”
“It’s tougher to organize in Iowa because it’s harder to find the caucus people … and it’s heavily dominated by evangelical Christians,” said Linda Fowler, a political scientist at Dartmouth University. “So with that context, I think New Hampshire makes sense for her. Plus, she has an enthusiastic governor who’s stumping for her.”
The former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor has barnstormed the Granite State with Sununu since she earned his backing last month. Yet Haley hasn’t quite abandoned Iowa and even plans to bring Sununu with her to campaign in Des Moines on Friday. She finished the final days of 2023 in the Hawkeye State and will face off against DeSantis during a CNN debate in Iowa on Jan. 10. (Trump is skipping the debate for a Fox News town hall at the same time.)
“Nikki isn’t taking any voter for granted. She’s traveling across Iowa, answering every question and shaking every hand. We’re fighting for every inch,” said Olivia Perez-Cubas, Haley’s spokeswoman.
There is some historical precedence that Haley’s gamble could pay off. The late Arizona Sen. John McCain in his 2000 presidential run mostly ignored Iowa and went on to beat George W. Bush in New Hampshire but lost the South Carolina primary. He would ultimately lose the nomination to Bush. But during his 2008 presidential run, McCain again bypassed Iowa and won the New Hampshire primary and the South Carolina primary before eventually becoming the GOP nominee.
Haley’s allies aren’t wasting any funds in helping her replicate McCain’s 2008 strategy.
SFA Fund, the super PAC backing Haley’s campaign, outspent all other groups in 2023 at $42 million, according to the ad tracking company AdImpact. That’s roughly $2 million more than DeSantis’s super PAC, Never Back Down, spent in 2023 at $40.2 million. Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., spent $34.4 million.
SFA Fund is the top spending advertiser of ’23.
Andy Beshear is the top spending candidate. Despite the #MDSen primary being in May 2024, David Trone was the 3rd highest-spending candidate. Tim Scott, who dropped out last month, is the highest-spending Republican candidate. pic.twitter.com/DSnbyLQYOB
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) December 29, 2023
Americans for Prosperity, the billionaire Koch family-backed group, is spending $70 million to boost Haley in Iowa. “We’re just now starting to see the money, and it could make a difference,” Fowler said of Americans for Prosperity’s efforts to help Haley.
The DeSantis campaign slammed both Haley and Trump and their supporters for spending more than $38.4 million in negative ad spending against the governor, the most out of all the 2024 candidates.
“And despite her team’s best efforts to keep expectations low for Haley in the Hawkeye State, the numbers don’t lie,” wrote Andrew Romeo, DeSantis’s campaign spokesman, in an email Tuesday. “The Wall Street Journal’s John McCormick noted yesterday how Haley and the super PAC supporting her will combine to drastically outspend the competition down the stretch in Iowa.”
Richard Arenberg, senior fellow in international and public affairs and visiting political science professor at Brown University, told the Washington Examiner that a respectable finish in Iowa will help Haley as she prepares to battle against Trump in New Hampshire, a state that will be decided by independents who make up the majority of voters.
But a recent flap-up over the origin of the Civil War could distract from Haley’s efforts. Haley caused a stir last week when she didn’t mention slavery as the cause of the war during a town hall event in New Hampshire. She cleaned up her comments in the aftermath of the backlash.
“I think that had a kind of chilling effect on the enthusiasm of some independents that maybe she could energize to come into the Republican primary and vote for her,” Arenberg said. “But a surprising second place in Iowa could maybe warm that up again.”
Scott Huffmon, a political scientist and the founder of the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University, claimed the controversy wouldn’t change her performance in Iowa. It “could move the odd New Hampshire independent,” but it would have “no impact on South Carolina.”
“And, despite her promise to the Sons of Confederate Veterans to not remove the Confederate flag from the statehouse when she first ran for governor, she publicly called for it to come down after the Mother Emanuel massacre, so that inoculates her somewhat,” he added referencing the 2015 murders of nine African American members of Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina.
Still, Haley must face the gargantuan task of somehow beating Trump in New Hampshire, where he polls at 46.3%, according to the RealClearPolitics average of the Granite State, and Haley polls at 24.8%.
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“Trump is still king of the hill in New Hampshire. No question about it. His support has been pretty static. It hasn’t really moved up and hasn’t really moved down,” said Merrill. “Haley has accomplished, I think, half of the battle, which is getting yourself out of the scrum of all the other candidates, whether current candidates or those that have withdrawn like [former Vice President Mike] Pence or [Sen. Tim] Scott [R-SC] to position herself as the No. 2.”
The other half of the battle, Merrill added, is converting undecided voters and encouraging other people to consider voting due to the state’s same-day registration law. “I’m sure the Haley campaign has worked hard to identify people who aren’t currently registered but who could choose to do so Election Day and turn them out,” he said.
An Alton man is dead after a snowmobile crash in New Hampshire’s North Country Thursday afternoon.
The New Hampshire Department of Fish and Game says 63-year-old Bradford Jones was attempting to negotiate a left hand turn on Corridor Trail 5 in Colebrook when he lost control of his snowmobile, struck multiple trees off the side of the trail and was thrown from the vehicle shortly before 3:30 p.m.
Jones was riding with another snowmobiler, who was in the lead at the time of the crash, according to the agency. Once the other man realized Jones was no longer behind him, he turned around and traveled back where he found Jones significantly injured, lying off the trail beside his damaged snowmobile.
The man immediately rendered aid to Jones and called 911 for assistance, NH Fish and Game said. The Colebrook Fire Department used their rescue tracked all terrain vehicle and a specialized off road machine to transport first responders across about a mile of trail to the crash scene.
Once there, a conservation officer and 45th Parallel EMS staff attempted lifesaving measures for approximately an hour, but Jones ultimately died from his injuries at the scene of the crash, officials said.
The crash remains under investigation, but conservation officers are considering speed for the existing trail conditions to have been a primary factor in this deadly incident.
Recently, I met with a husband who had been caring for his wife since her Alzheimer’s diagnosis. Her needs were escalating quickly — appointments, medications, meals, personal care — and he was determined to keep her at home. But the cost to his own wellbeing was undeniable. He was sleep‑deprived, depressed, and beginning to experience cognitive decline himself.
As director of the Referral Education Assistance & Prevention (REAP) program at Seacoast Mental Health Center, which supports older adults and caregivers across New Hampshire in partnership with the CMHC’s across the state, I hear stories like his every week. And his experience is far from unique.
Across the country, 24% of adults are family caregivers. Here in New Hampshire, 281,000 adults provide this essential care, often with little preparation or support. Only 11% receive any formal training to manage personal care tasks — yet they are the backbone of our long‑term care system, helping aging parents, spouses, and loved ones remain safely at home. (AARP, 2025)
REAP provides short‑term counseling, education, and support for older adults, caregivers, and the professionals who support them. We address concerns around mental health, substance use and cognitive functioning. After 21 years working with caregivers, I have seen how inadequate support directly harms families. Caregiving takes a serious toll — emotionally, physically, socially and financially. Many experience depression, chronic stress, and increased risk of alcohol or medication misuse.
In REAP’s own data from 2024:
- 50% of caregivers reported moderate to severe depression
- 29% reported suicidal ideation in the past two weeks
- 25% screened positive for at‑risk drinking
Their responsibilities go far beyond tasks like medication management and meal preparation. They interpret moods, manage behavioral changes, ease emotional triggers, and create meaningful engagement for the person they love. Their world revolves around the care recipient — often leading to isolation, loss of identity, guilt, and ongoing grief.
The statistics reflect what I see every week. Nearly one in four caregivers feels socially isolated. Forty‑three percent experience moderate to high emotional stress. And 31% receive no outside help at all.
Compare that to healthcare workers, who work in teams, receive breaks, have coworkers who step in when overwhelmed, and are trained and compensated for their work. Even with these supports, burnout is common. Caregivers receive none of these protections yet are expected to shoulder the same level of responsibility — alone, unpaid, and unrecognized.
Senate Bill 608 in New Hampshire would finally begin to fill these gaps. The bill provides access to counseling, peer support, training, and caregiver assessment for family caregivers of individuals enrolled in two Medicaid waiver programs: Acquired Brain Disorder (ABD) and Choices for Independence (CFI). These services would address the very needs I see daily.
Professional counseling helps caregivers process the complex emotions of watching a loved one decline or manage the stress that comes with it. Peer support connects them with others navigating similar challenges. Caregiver assessment identifies individual needs before families reach crisis.
When caregivers receive the right support, everyone benefits. The care recipient receives safer, more compassionate care. The caregiver’s health stabilizes instead of deteriorating from chronic stress and neglect. And costly options, which many older adults want to avoid, are delayed or prevented.
There is a direct and measurable link between caregiver training and caregiver wellbeing. The spouse I mentioned earlier is proof. Through REAP, he received education about his wife’s diagnosis, guidance on communication and behavior, and strategies to manage his own stress. Within weeks, his depression decreased from moderate to mild without medication. He was sleeping through the night and thinking more clearly. His frustration with his wife dropped significantly because he finally understood what she was experiencing and how to respond compassionately.
The real question before lawmakers is not whether we can afford SB 608. It is whether we can afford to continue ignoring the needs of those who hold our care system together. In 1970, we had 31 caregivers for every one person needing care. By 2010, that ratio dropped to 7:1. By 2030, it is projected to be 4:1. Our caregiver supply is shrinking while needs continue to grow. Without meaningful support, our systems — healthcare, long‑term care, and community supports — cannot function. (AARP, 2013)
Caregivers don’t ask for much. They want to keep their loved ones safe, comfortable, and at home. They want to stay healthy enough to continue providing care. SB 608 gives them the tools to do exactly that.
I urge New Hampshire lawmakers to support SB 608 and stand with the 281,000 residents who are quietly holding our care system together. We cannot keep waiting until caregivers collapse to offer help. We must provide the support they need now — before the burden becomes too heavy to bear.
Anne Marie Sirrine, LICSW, CDP is a staff therapist and the director of the REAP (Referral Education Assistance & Prevention) program at Seacoast Mental Health Center.
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