Kamala Harris speaks to the New Hamsphire Institute of Politics during the 2020 presidential primary.

Poll after poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris locked in a margin-of-error wrestling match with former President Donald Trump over the seven swing states that will pick the next president.

And none of those states are New Hampshire.

Which is why political observes in New Hampshire and nationwide are scratching their heads over Harris’s decision to take one of the 63 campaign days she has left and spend it in Portsmouth this Wednesday. Veteran campaign insiders from both sides of the aisle told NHJournal they didn’t understand the decision and could only offer speculation. Speculation, they conceded, that didn’t entirely make sense.

The media advisory from the campaign simply says the vice president “will travel to the Greater Portsmouth area for a campaign event.”

The post from Marisa Nahem, who handles communications for the Harris campaign in New Hampshire, reads: “Kamala Harris is coming to NH & she’ll be greeted by amazing energy!”

What veteran political reporter Mark Halperin reads into all this is that something is up for Harris in New Hampshire.

“Kamala Harris to New Hampshire is very interesting,” Halperin posted on Twitter. “If the reason is not because Democratic internal [polls] show the race close, I’m eager to hear the alternate explanation. Endorsing a House candidate in a primary? Raising money from a Seacoast billionaire?”

So, is Harris coming to shore up her support in the Granite State? “Maybe it’s for insurance,” one Democrat told NHJournal on background.

But public polls show New Hampshire is, as it has been in seven of the previous eight presidential elections, a safe Democratic state. The Cook Political Report shifted the state from “leans Democrat” to “likely Democrat” after the party pushed out President Joe Biden and replaced him with Harris.

Recent polling by both St. Anselm and the University of New Hampshire’ gives Harris an eight-point lead over Trump. And two additional sources confirmed to NHJournal that their private polling has also found a solid Harris lead.

And then there’s an email sent by Massachusetts Trump staffer — or rather, former staffer — Tom Mountain, declaring “the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state.”

According to reporting by The Boston Globe, Mountain said was “sure to lose by an even higher margin” in New Hampshire than in 2016 and 2020, citing “campaign data/research.”

“We’re off the map,” one New Hampshire GOP source familiar with the state of the Trump campaign told NHJournal.

So, why is Harris coming here?

Some New Hampshire political operatives speculate the visit may be to repair relationships from the First in the Nation presidential primary fiasco, when Biden directed the Democratic National Committee to strip the Granite State of its place on the primary calendar. They note potential 2028 candidates like Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-Ill.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) made Labor Day weekend appearances in New Hampshire.

“It’s September. You don’t burn a candidate’s time like that in an uncompetitive state unless someone is writing her a $5 million check,” one national political pro told NHJournal. “The First in the Nation primary can wait until January.”

Fundraising appears to be the most likely answer. Several campaign professionals in both parties said it’s very possible Harris is coming to the Boston area for a big-dollar event and a quick trip to Portsmouth will get media coverage in Maine and New Hampshire. Not exactly Michigan, Nevada, or North Carolina, but not entirely wasted, either.

“You can make bank in Massachusetts and dip your toe in New Hampshire-Maine in less than 8 hours combined,” one Massachusetts GOP source noted.

Interestingly, Harris is coming just days before the primary that will determine the Democratic ticket in November. If she delayed her trip a week, she’d be able to appear with the nominees for governor and the Second Congressional District. Does that mean an endorsement in one of those races might be on the agenda this Wednesday?

“There is no way,” one longtime New Hampshire Democratic operative told NHJournal.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign insists that New Hampshire is on the board and the Harris team knows it.

“President Trump’s campaign maintains an on-the-ground presence in New Hampshire, including staff and offices, while Kamala Harris is parachuting in because she knows that the Granite State is in play,” campaign senior advisor Brian Hughes told the Boston Globe.

A Donald Trump campaign volunteer in Massachusetts “will no longer have any involvement” in the campaign after he warned in an email that New Hampshire was “no longer a battleground state,” according to the Boston Globe on Monday.

In an email, which was obtained by the Globe, Tom Mountain, a Massachusetts volunteer for the Trump campaign, wrote to other Trump volunteers in the state that “the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state,” and instead directed supporters to focus on Pennsylvania, another battleground state.

Mountain continued in his email by stating that Trump was “sure to lose by an even higher margin” in New Hampshire than in 2016 and 2020, citing “campaign data/research.”

In 2020, Joe Biden won the state with 52 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45 percent, while in 2016, Hillary Clinton was able to carry the state by around 2,700 votes.

In addition, Mountain claimed resources would be suspended and the campaign would not send Trump or high-profile figures central to the campaign to the state.

However, in an emailed response to Newsweek, Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt denied Mountain’s claims and reiterated the campaign’s efforts in New Hampshire stating it “maintains an on-the-ground presence” in the state.

“This isn’t true: President Trump’s campaign maintains an on-the-ground presence in New Hampshire, including staff and offices, while Kamala Harris is parachuting in because she knows that the Granite State is in play. We look forward to building on the momentum that we have grown since the primary and sending New Hampshire’s four electoral votes to President Trump’s column on November 5,” Leavitt said.

In addition, the Trump campaign clarified Mountain is a volunteer and does not hold a “formal role” in the campaign, adding that he is not privy to internal deliberations about campaign strategy or plans for other states.

“It appears this was just an independent attempt to generate enthusiasm for volunteer deployments to a nearby major swing state,” the Trump campaign said in an emailed statement.

Mountain, who had served as one of several vice chairs for the former president’s effort in Massachusetts, is also a former official with the Massachusetts GOP.

This comes as New Hampshire has voted Democratic in all but one election since 1992, but it is considered a battleground state in most election cycles because control of its state legislature and congressional seats have switched back and forth between Republicans and Democrats.

Meanwhile, battleground states, including New Hampshire, will play a key role in determining the result of this year’s election due to the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. Surveys from battleground states may be more telling than those of national polls.

In July, in the first public survey of New Hampshire voters since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race, Harris had a lead of 6 points over the former president.

The poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire between July 23 and 25, shows Harris with a 49 to 43 percent lead over Trump. The poll surveyed 3,016 people and had a margin of error of 1.8 percent.

In a Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SASC) poll of 2,083 New Hampshire registered voters conducted between July 24 and 25, Harris had a 50-44 percent margin over Trump. The poll had a 2.1 percent margin of error.

However, Harris was not previously leading in the state. In a poll conducted by the New Hampshire Journal and Praecones Analytica after the Republican convention but before Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 campaign when Harris was matched up against Trump in a head-to-head, her Republican rival was leading her by one point, on 40 percent to her 39 percent.

This comes as the Democratic presidential ticket has seen a dramatic reversal in the polls since Biden’s decision to drop out of the race and endorse Harris. She has surged in the polls—leading Trump in national and swing state polling averages whereas Biden was generally behind.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average on Monday, the vice president is 7 points ahead of Trump in the state, with 50.3 percent to his 43.2 percent.

Although Harris is leading in the polling averages, recent polls in Pennsylvania have also shown the pair tied, including the latest surveys conducted by Wick and Emerson College between August 25 and 29.

Meanwhile, other polls have shown Trump in the lead, including a Trafalgar Group poll from August 30, which put the former president 2 points ahead of Harris among likely voters. A SoCal Strategies poll from August 23 put the former president 1 point ahead, while a Fabrizio Ward poll from August 21 also put the Republican 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup.

A top Trump volunteer in Massachusetts “will no longer have any involvement” in the campaign after he sent an email Sunday evening raising alarm about the Republican ticket’s chances in neighboring New Hampshire.

Tom Mountain, who had served as one of several vice chairs for the former president’s effort in Massachusetts, wrote in an email to Trump volunteers in the state that “the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state,” and advised supporters to instead direct their attention to Pennsylvania. The GOP had been bullish about winning New Hampshire before President Biden dropped out of the race.

In the email, Mountain, a former official with the Massachusetts GOP, said Trump was “sure to lose by an even higher margin” in New Hampshire than in 2016 and 2020, citing “campaign data/research.” He claimed resources would be suspended and the campaign would not send Trump or high-profile surrogates such as his sons. The email was obtained by the Globe and confirmed with multiple recipients.

Republicans in New England and the Trump campaign were quick to rebut Mountain’s email and dismiss him as a mere volunteer not privy to internal deliberations about campaign strategy or plans for a state that is not his own.

Brian Hughes, senior advisor to the Trump campaign, said to call Mountain a “leading volunteer” would be a “massive overstatement of his involvement” and added that “due to this ridiculous misrepresentation of our ongoing operation in New Hampshire, he will no longer have any involvement going forward.”

“This isn’t true,” Hughes said of Mountain’s email. “President Trump’s campaign maintains an on-the-ground presence in New Hampshire, including staff and offices, while Kamala Harris is parachuting in because she knows that the Granite State is in play. We look forward to building on the momentum that we have grown since the primary and sending New Hampshire’s four electoral votes to President Trump’s column on November 5.”

The Republican National Committee did not answer questions, however, about what resources it is sending to New Hampshire, or any plans for campaign events there. Trump has not appeared in New Hampshire since he won its first-in-the-nation primary in January, and it has been months since the state has had a visit from a top surrogate, such as North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum in April.

Steve Stepanek, who leads Trump’s campaign in New Hampshire, said Mountain “obviously has no idea what is going on in NH because he is from Massachusetts” but did not respond to further questions.

Even as Mountain’s message rankled many of his fellow Republicans, who complained he was uninformed or speaking out of turn, it underscored deep concerns among some in the GOP that having Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket makes Democrats more competitive in swing states such as New Hampshire. Mountain declined an interview request.

New Hampshire is a purple state, with a Democratic congressional delegation and a Republican governor, but it has not voted for a Republican for president in more than 20 years. This year, with Biden at the top of the ticket, the GOP there was optimistic about taking the state back for Trump.

But since Harris ascended to the top of the ticket and built new momentum on the Democratic side, the race in Republican reach states such as New Hampshire has appeared to tighten. A recent poll found Harris leading Trump in the state, and she is expected to appear in New Hampshire this week. The Cook Political Report recently moved the state from “lean” to “likely” Democratic, another indication of Harris’s strength there. Given that challenge, as well as how few electoral votes New Hampshire carries — just four — it may not be worth investing in, some New England Republicans quietly acknowledge.

Two leading Massachusetts Republicans told the Globe they were not aware of any shift in the Trump campaign’s strategy for New England.

Janet Fogarty, the Republican National Committeewoman for Massachusetts, said in an interview Sunday that New Hampshire is “an important state.”

She said Republican volunteers from reliably blue Massachusetts flock north to campaign in New Hampshire every four years, and she did not expect 2024 to be any different. Of Mountain’s email, she said, “there’s no there there.”

For his part, Mountain wrote in his email that “the Dems’ campaign shakeup from Biden to Harris led our campaign to shift strategy to other winnable battleground states.”

“So for those who were active in the NH ground campaign in 2016 and 2020, and expected to do the same after Labor Day, the simple question is… what are we to do?” Mountain wrote. “GO TO PENNSYLVANIA. The nearest battleground state. This is a must-win state. If we lose Pennsylvania we lose the election.”

A former vice chairman of the Massachusetts GOP, Mountain stepped down from the role in 2021 in the wake of what he called a “scurrilous and demeaning” blog post about his personal life.

Emma Platoff can be reached at emma.platoff@globe.com. Follow her @emmaplatoff.