Maine
Political polling in Maine is big news. I’m urging caution. | Opinion
Nicholas Jacobs is the Goldfarb Family Distinguished Chair in American Government at Colby College, where he also serves as the inaugural director of the Bram Public Policy Lab.
I love a good poll as much as the next person.
It’s why I’ve relied on them throughout my research and teaching. Surveys offer a rare glimpse into attitudes that are otherwise difficult to observe, and in competitive races they can help orient both journalists and voters to what appears to be unfolding. And this Senate race in Maine — it is competitive. I’m itching for clarity.
Polls matter beyond our general academic curiosity. They actually shape the race and our expectations. The findings out of the University of New Hampshire about Graham Platner’s meteoric rise in the Democratic primary have already begun to shape how observers are talking about the Senate race, subtly altering expectations about competitiveness and early advantage. No doubt, donations will follow the topline finding.
But a word of caution is warranted. Polling in Maine is unusually difficult. And yes, you can simply refuse to “trust the polls,” but let me also suggest you don’t have to even go that far: just look at what the pollsters are and are not telling you each time they report results.
Most anyone who cares about polling results knows a few things to check, none more important than the all important margin of error. It offers a useful reminder that polls estimate rather than measure, and that even well-executed surveys contain uncertainty.
Try telling me who’s ahead with just a few dozen people and you’ll see a margin of error in the double-digits; everyone knows know you might as well stop reading. But a small margin of error only reflects precision, not representativeness — and a survey can be statistically tidy while still overlooking meaningful variation within the electorate.
You can get a representative snapshot of what Maine, on average, thinks with a modest sample — about 1,000 of our neighbors. Yet that is rarely what readers or campaigns are focused on in moments like this. We are not just asking what “Maine” thinks. We are asking what primary voters, independents or late-deciding voters think. And that is where interpretation becomes harder.
As attention shifts to those subsamples, the number of respondents quickly shrinks and the margin of error widens. That mechanical inflation is familiar and usually reported. What is discussed far less is whether those smaller groups meaningfully reflect the diversity of voters they are meant to represent — geographically, politically and in terms of engagement with the race. Because, as is often the case, the initial goal was not to survey, say, young people in Maine, but all people in Maine. That distinction creates problems.
When looking at subsamples, the relevant question is not simply how large the margin of error becomes, but how much confidence we should have that the subsample itself captures the electorate we care about. One way researchers evaluate this is by looking beyond sample size to how heavily responses must be weighted and adjusted to reflect that diversity — a process captured in what survey methodologists call “design effects.”
When those adjustments are substantial, the survey contains less independent information than the respondent count suggests, meaning apparent precision can mask deeper uncertainty about how accurate the estimates really are.
Again, the latest UNH survey in Maine offers a useful illustration.
Buried in the methodology statement, the researchers report a design effect of 2.3 and note that they did not adjust their margins of error for what is a pretty major acknowledgement that their sample, however large, needed some help in representing the broader Maine electorate. Put plainly, a design effect of 2.3 means those 1,120 likely voters function statistically more like a sample of about 500 — making the apparent precision of the results considerably overstated.
If the effective sample size is cut substantially, the true uncertainty around candidate support widens. What was a margin of error of about ±2.9 grows quick, to ±4.5. Of course, this might mean that Platner’s lead over Collins in the general election is higher than what the poll estimated, but it also means that, in this case, his lead could be as small as two points.
Specific to the one finding that is drawing substantial media attention, it also means that Platner’s “advantage” among Maine independents is a statistical fantasy. That is because once you start looking at sub-samples, the “penalty” that a design effect has on a poll’s margin of error is even greater.
To begin with, there are only about 164 independents represented in the full sample — a testament to the large design effect, because the poll seems to have captured way more partisans than proportionally exist in the state. The baseline margin of error for that group, to begin with, is ±7.
And then once weighting and design effects are taken into account, the effective number of independent respondents becomes smaller still — in this case, giving us estimates that have an equal chance of being 12 points higher (Platner leads with 59% of independents!) or 12 points lower (Collins has a 15 point advantage!). We just don’t know.
Now, I realize this may sound like unwelcome news to those eager to read the poll as
confirmation of a decisive shift in the race. I look forward to the emails I will receive telling me my “academic caution” is masquerading as excuse-making for Sen. Collins.
But, if anything, the statistically rigorous takeaway remains quite interesting. The same issue with independents I describe above (an ever-shrinking sample size) is just as true for analyzing the subset of Democratic primary voters. Even after accounting for the design effect here, functionally inflating the margin of error on the Democratic primary, Platner’s lead is unequivocal.
Even the most generous read, given that uncertainty, gives Mills just about a third of Democratic primary voters in the survey. The margin may be less precise, and there are still questions about whether the poll captured the broad swath of likely voters, but the signal is unmistakable: he is a credible and competitive challenger.
Statistical caution does not weaken that conclusion, even as it tempers claims of an inevitable victory for one candidate or party.
Platner’s emergence is real. So is the uncertainty surrounding everything beyond it. Acknowledging that uncertainty, though, is the difference between careful interpretation and wishful thinking. And when uncertainty is translated into premature conclusions, the narrative can begin to influence the election before voters do.
Maine
Appeals court rules Maine’s gun waiting period likely constitutional
The 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Friday ruled that Maine’s 72-hour waiting period for firearm purchases is likely constitutional, overturning a lower court’s decision that had blocked the law from being enforced.
A three-judge panel vacated a preliminary injunction that had prevented Maine from enforcing the law, which requires a 72-hour waiting period for a gun buyer to take possession of a firearm after purchasing it.
The panel found the law does not violate the “plain text” of the Second Amendment.
Circuit Judge Seth Aframe wrote that while the Second Amendment protects the right to “keep and bear” arms, the Maine law regulates the acquisition of firearms, which is a step that happens before a person actually possesses or carries a weapon.
In the 24-page ruling, the court characterized the law as a “presumptively lawful” condition on the commercial sale of firearms rather than an outright ban. The court concluded the 72-hour delay is a “modest” burden similar to the wait already allowed for federal background checks.
This law and one expanding background check requirements was enacted in 2024, six months after 18 people were killed in the mass shooting in Lewiston. Lawmakers designed the “cooling off” period to reduce suicides and homicides sparked by impulsive firearm purchases.
The lawsuit was brought by a gun buyer, a firearms training business and three firearms dealers. They argued the law interfered with the rights of victims of domestic violence to immediately protect themselves and caused significant business losses for firearms dealers.
The court concluded the plaintiffs were unlikely to succeed on the merits of their claim, which sends the case back to the district court. By vacating the preliminary injunction, the appeals court allows the state to resume enforcing the waiting period while the underlying lawsuit continues.
This is a developing story.
Maine
Maine could soon see a statewide ‘bell-to-bell’ cellphone ban in schools
AUGUSTA (WGME) — Maine could soon join a growing number of states that ban cellphones during school hours, after lawmakers advanced funding to create and enforce a statewide “bell to bell” policy.
Governor Janet Mills called for the ban during her State of the State address back in January.
“I propose that we enact a statewide ban on cellphone use during the school day, from bell to bell, to reduce distraction and disruption and to keep children’s attention on learning,” Mills said.
Earlier this week, the legislature’s budget committee signed off on $350,000 to support starting a statewide school cellphone ban. The proposal would prohibit students from using their cellphones or smart devices from the first bell until they are dismissed.
“Appropriations has included $350,000 in its budget to support schools with the ban, presumably to cover the cost of phone lockers, Yondr pouches and other possible ‘enforcement-related’ expenses for this possible rollout,” Maine School Management Association Executive Director Eric Waddell said.
Some Maine schools already have their own restrictions. At Cony High School, Principal Kim Liscomb says the school began implementing stricter cellphone policies five years ago after teachers reported students were distracted.
“We said, ‘All right, nope, they need to be in backpacks, they need to be in bags, they can’t be out at all, and there only certain areas in the school you can use them,” Liscomb said.
Under Cony’s current rules, students are permitted to use their phones before and after school and during lunch. Liscomb says the tighter policy has improved classroom participation.
“The best impact is the engagement of students in the classroom, the highly engaged conversations and discussions, teachers have reported a significant improvement there,” Liscomb said.
In response to this proposal, some state lawmakers like Representative Jack Ducharme of Madison say they are against an entire state mandate.
“I did not, nor will I support a state mandate for local schools to ban cellphones in the classroom bell-to-bell. We have local school boards made up of local people: parents, grandparents and others that represent the people of that school district. While I understand that cellphones in schools are a problem, I trust local people to address the problem rather than another government mandate,” Ducharme said.
Waddell says that if a statewide school cellphone policy is enacted, the association will work with the Maine Department of Education to provide a sample policy for school boards.
The proposal still must pass the House and Senate before it can go to the governor for approval. If passed, it would take effect at the beginning of next school year.
Maine
World Affairs Council of Maine announces 2026 Governor’s International Breakfast
Join others for a morning of engagement that addresses Maine’s place in the global economy
PORTLAND — At a moment of global uncertainty and transition within our own state, Maine’s role in the world will take center stage as Gov. Janet Mills delivers her fifth and final address at the 2026 Governor’s International Breakfast, an annual event hosted by the World Affairs Council of Maine and the Maine International Trade Center.
This year’s theme “Maine and the World: Looking Back and Moving Forward,” the breakfast will bring together Maine’s civic, business, academic and government leaders for a morning of discussion about how global forces shape Maine’s economy, workforce and future, and how we can maximize opportunities.
A retrospective panel moderated by David Plumb, senior mediator at the nonprofit Consensus Building Institute, will address progress in international trade, energy, climate and workforce development, supply chain resilience, Arctic affairs and public diplomacy – highlighting areas where ongoing investment is crucial for Maine’s competitiveness and connectivity.
All the panelists are connected by their leadership in areas identified in Maine’s strategic plans, as well as their involvement with the International Visitor Leadership Program, a professional exchange program of the U.S. State Department which brings visitors from around the world to promote understanding, public diplomacy, and cultivate lasting relationships with visitors and their home countries. This link to Maine’s public diplomacy highlights how person to person engagement not only facilitates the exchange of ideas and experience but lays out the foundation for future cooperation and lifetime of opportunity.
Established in 1997, the Governor’s International Breakfast has served as a trusted forum for open and meaningful dialogue on Maine’s place in the world and the benefits of global engagement.
“At a time of such uncertainty, this event holds greater significance than ever,” said Allison Hodgkins, executive director for the World Affairs Council of Maine. “Since its inception, the breakfast has brought together governors and leaders from across backgrounds, sectors and communities, reflecting our [World Affairs Council of Maine] long tradition of cultivating nonpartisan spaces. As Mainers look for ways to engage thoughtfully on global issues, events like this remain a vital space for connection and progress.”
The 2026 Governor’s International Breakfast will be held on Tuesday, April 7 from 7-9:30 a.m. at the Holiday Inn by the Bay in Portland. Registration is open to the public. Early bird rates are available, with nonmembers attending for $30 and members for $25. Maine students may attend at no cost.
Since 1977, the World Affairs Council of Maine (WAC207) has worked with community members and elected officials to support cultural exchange between Maine and the world. It provides a regular forum for Maine people to explore international issues and engage in thoughtful, respectful dialogue through its programs. Visit https://wacmaine.org/ to learn more or become a member.
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