Most Maine homes and small businesses can expect the cost of their electricity supply to go up in January.

Nine out of 10 Maine homes receive their electricity supply through the state-run standard offer program. They’re likely to see an estimated 15% or so jump in rates, according to an analysis done for The Maine Monitor by Competitive Energy Services, a Portland consulting and energy procurement firm.

The projected increase could boost average supply rates for a typical home by roughly $8 a month in 2026. 

The supply rate hike would be separate from whatever happens with a recent, controversial request by Central Maine Power to increase its distribution rates to upgrade its aging network of wires, poles and substations. That proposal, now at the Public Utilities Commission, has been met with strong opposition from inflation-weary customers, triggering a record 617 public comments by early October.

“Affordability is becoming a big issue, a big political issue,” said Andrew Price, Competitive Energy Services’ president and CEO. “There’s definitely outrage out there with CMP’s proposed distribution increases. The supply hike is going to feel like there’s some piling on.”

Rising electric rates are becoming a national issue, too, with the prices consumers pay up 13% since 2022 and projected to rise again next year, according to the federal Energy Information Administration, a non-partisan branch of the Department of Energy. In some regions, the growth is tied to building more power plants to meet demand at new data centers.

But Maine’s expected supply cost increase has nothing to do with artificial intelligence or CMP’s case. Instead, it’s tied largely to wholesale natural gas prices that are on track to keep rising in 2026.

Prices are up in part because the United States, which has become the world’s largest gas exporter, is projected to double the volume of liquefied natural gas shipped overseas by 2030, according to federal estimates. LNG exports are part of President Donald Trump’s goal of unleashing a “Golden Era of American Energy Dominance,” growing the country’s gross domestic product and adding jobs.

But higher natural gas prices are bad for energy consumers in New England. That’s because half the region’s power is generated by plants that burn natural gas. The cost of gas in turn sets what’s called the marginal price for what other forms of generation are paid for supplying New England’s power grid 24/7.

Wholesale gas prices are being watched closely now because the Maine PUC is planning next month to review the annual bids it receives from generators offering the standard supply service in 2026. There’s no way to know the precise outcome until the days the bids are accepted, but market conditions are pointing to some increase, according to Philip Bartlett, who chairs the PUC.

“It’s fair to say that electricity prices track natural gas prices,” he said. “So if we see changes in natural gas prices, they will be reflected in electricity costs.”

Electricity suppliers study cost projections on energy futures markets, and if they see gas prices rising next year, Bartlett explained, they hedge that risk by charging more for generation contracts.

“Any upward swing in gas prices is bad news for electricity prices,” he said.

Supply rates have been volatile

Mainers have received their electricity supply from an unregulated energy market for 25 years, although some residents still think their utilities are involved because the charges are included in their monthly bills. Due largely to natural gas, supply costs have become the most volatile and largest component of an electric bill.

And they’ve been on a roller coaster in recent years, ranging from roughly 6 cents per kilowatt-hour to 16 cents. They plunged during the pandemic in 2020, soared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled global energy markets, and have eased over the past two years.

Today, according to the latest figures collected by Maine’s Department of Energy Resources, standard offer supply rates are roughly 11 cents per kWh for CMP and Versant Power’s Bangor Hydro District.

Maine’s total electric rates grew at the third-fastest rate in the country between 2014 and 2024, according to an analysis conducted last April by The Monitor. An overly generous state solar reimbursement policy and the costs of repairing the delivery grid following severe storms were contributors, but natural gas prices were the leading factor, the analysis found.

New England is especially vulnerable to price swings because the region’s constrained gas pipeline system doesn’t have enough capacity on the coldest winter days, requiring injections of more-costly LNG to meet demand.

The role of LNG

But LNG now is playing a role in pushing up electricity prices elsewhere in the country. As aging coal plants have retired, natural gas has become America’s leading fuel for electricity generation, meeting 42% of the need. At the same time, a growing share of American gas is being shipped overseas from new export terminals. 

It’s headed primarily to Europe, for cutting dependence on Russian energy. And it’s going to Asia, to meet growing energy needs and to blunt tariff pressures from the Trump administration. Recent data from the Institute for Energy Economics and Finance Analysis, which promotes sustainable energy, found that, for the first time, the volume of gas being exported was more than half the amount being used at American power plants.

Although gas production and prices are always changing, the overall trend is pushing up the price of gas burned in America. The federal Energy Information Administration’s October outlook projected that a key market price used to forecast costs would rise from $2.20 per million BTU last year to $4.10 in January.

The idea that exports are pushing up gas prices isn’t universally embraced. The American Petroleum Institute, for instance, recently highlighted a report from S&P Global that found LNG exports had no major impact on domestic residential gas prices, although that report didn’t directly address the influence on electricity rates. 

Campaigning last year, Trump said he intended to slash energy and electricity prices in half within 12 to 18 months. And while gasoline prices have eased a bit this year due to lower crude oil costs, electricity generation has gone in the other direction.

“We’re not on track for any Trump policies to cut electric rates for Maine ratepayers,” said Heather Sanborn, Maine’s public advocate for utility customers.

Sanborn said her office hears daily from Mainers concerned about affordable power but that the state has limited tools to address supply costs. One strategy, endorsed by her office and AARP Maine, is to explore different methods for the PUC to procure standard offer contracts. 

A bill passed this year in the Maine Legislature directs the PUC to look into soliciting bids more than once a year and for varying lengths of time, in an effort to smooth the volatility in rates.

Asked about the effort, Bartlett said his agency contracted for a procurement study that recommended minor adjustments but “nothing earthshattering” that would significantly lower supply costs for Mainers. A report to the Legislature is due in January.

One strategy that could help over time, both Sanborn and Bartlett noted, is to build more cost-effective renewable energy capacity in the region. Solar, wind and battery storage deployed at certain hours can help dampen the volatility of natural gas, they said. Solar, for instance, can reduce the time gas plants need to run when demand is high, such as on a summer afternoon when air conditioners are cranking.

But federal support for clean energy has largely evaporated, especially for solar and wind, with the Trump administration doing what it can to hamstring renewable projects in favor of fossil fuel generation.

“To the extent we’re not building grid-scale storage or offshore wind, we are allowing natural gas to be the marginal cost setter in our region,” Sanborn said.

This story was originally published by The Maine Monitor, a nonprofit and nonpartisan news organization. To get regular coverage from The Monitor, sign up for a free Monitor newsletter here.

WHERE TO LIVE

Deciding where to live as we age can be pretty complicated, especially in Maine where so many people live in rural areas, said Jess Maurer, executive director of the Maine Council on Aging.

While moving into a senior living community might be a good option for those who can afford it, many other folks will choose to or need to stay in their homes.

There are many types of senior communities and care facilities in Maine. They range from nursing homes or memory care facilities, to assisted living centers where some level of help is provided, to retirement communities geared toward independent living. Some communities offer independent, assisted living and nursing care on the same campus.

Staying in one’s own home and community can often be better for an older person but might require some renovations to make the house more accessible, Maurer said, and that can come at a cost, too. Some of the things people might consider doing now, to slowly age in place at home, include: installing flush thresholds throughout the home, installing a curbless shower or walk-in tub, adding handrails to all indoor and outdoor stairways, adding grab bars in the bathroom and replacing standard toilets with high seat models.

Maurer said that if someone is willing and able to relocate, it could make sense to find housing in a town center where it would be easy to walk to stores, entertainment, churches and places to socialize and get exercise.

HOW TO GET AROUND

While not everyone will face major health problems as they age, everyone’s eyesight at some point worsens, Maurer said. That means you’ll need to decide when it might no longer be safe for you to drive at night, or at all.

AARP offers an online driver safety course designed to help you qualify for insurance discounts. But it’s also meant to make people aware of the challenges of driving as they age, including the effects of medication on driving and how to compensate for age-related challenges.

In Maine, drivers over 65 have to get their license renewed every four years instead of every six, according to the Maine Department of the Secretary of State website. Drivers over 62 are required to get an eye exam every time they renew their license.

WHEN TO ASK FOR HELP

For people who have stopped or cut back on driving and want to stay in their homes, there are volunteer transportation programs operating in all 16 of Maine’s counties. Some programs have age limits, or limit destinations to medical appointments or grocery stores. Most are free. To find a program in your area and more specific information, check out the list on the Maine Council on Aging website.

MEDICAL CARE

Barbara Schlichtman, chair of the trusts and estate department at the Perkins Thompson law firm, recommends people have several legal documents in place as they get older.

She encourages people to sign a financial power of attorney over to someone they trust, and create an advanced health directive and sign a HIPPA authorization. Those three things will help ensure that someone else can make decisions for you if you’re not able to, can talk to your doctors and that your end-of-life wishes are known, she said.

Most of these require a visit to a lawyer, but the Maine Hospital Association offers a free Maine Health Care Advance Directive form on its website.

WILLS AND TRUSTS

Schlichtman says that dying without a will or a trust to specify how your assets should be divided and distributed can create legal complications for your family and friends. Even if you think you don’t own much, you probably should have a will or a trust, she said. Schlichtman said that while a will is simpler and less expensive, a trust provides more privacy.

Our Aging in Maine series explores ways to prepare for retirement, navigate the challenges of growing older and deepen community connections. More stories will publish throughout October, and all articles will run in a special print section of the Maine Sunday Telegram on Oct. 19.

School nurses from across the state have raised concerns about a new vaccine reporting system rolled out this year by the Maine Department of Education and Maine Center for Disease Control.

A letter signed by 70 school nurses statewide that was shared with lawmakers and Gov. Janet Mills last Friday lays out three primary concerns: added time and effort burden for nurses on top of regular duties, concerns about student privacy, and a “mismatch” of state policies around vaccine records.

“While we fully support the importance of protecting public health and ensuring accurate immunization records, we are deeply concerned about the burdens and risks this system places on schools, school nurses, and families,” the letter reads.

State officials said they have responded to the concerns from school nurses by extending the deadline for this year’s annual report, making changes to the system to make reporting easier and providing assistance to schools in adjusting to the program. They said the system is compliant with state and federal privacy laws, and is intended to improve reporting and record-keeping of immunization data.

“The Maine DOE and the Maine CDC will continue to seek and incorporate feedback from school nurses and other school staff as this transition progresses,” the departments said in a joint statement Thursday.

This week, school nurses from around the state told the Press Herald that they feel state officials don’t understand the work they do, and are underestimating the burden of adding time-consuming administrative tasks to their plates.

“We’ve worked so hard, and then we find out that this program includes a tremendous amount of administrative work, and there are just no hours left in the day,” said Jennifer Bowdish, a school nurse from Brunswick.

Maine officials announced last April they would be rolling out Docket for Schools, a reporting module for student immunization records, during the 2025-26 school year.

State law requires students enrolled in public and private schools to show proof of vaccination, and in 2021 a new state policy eliminated religious and philosophical exemptions. It also requires district superintendents to maintain uniform records of the immunization status of every student and submit a summary report to the state by Dec. 15 each year.

In a June memo, the education department said that report was often “incomplete, erroneous, or not received.” During the 2023-24 school year, only 77% of schools submitted the survey, and 39% of those who did had at least one missing student record.

The new system was adopted to ensure uniform record-keeping and thorough data.

NURSES SOUND THE ALARM

A group of school nurses first raised concerns in a mid-September letter to the commissioner of education, and in response the state’s school nurse consultant and the director of the Maine Immunization Program held a meeting to answer questions.

But concerns persisted and the group of nurses responded by sending a letter to lawmakers.

“We barely scrape by getting the work done that we need to,” Bowdish, from Brunswick, said. She sees 50 students daily and administers more than 20 medications. “You’re doing the work of a nurse and of an administrative assistant. For some kids in your school, you are the only health provider that they are ever going to see.”

One of the biggest frustrations nurses have with the new system is that school nurses don’t actually give immunizations. They are usually administered by a pediatrician, but the program requires the nurses to input original records from the student’s primary care provider, which are often full of small clerical errors made by those offices, made several years earlier.

“We’re being asked to create a database about work we didn’t do,” said Denise Leathers-Pouliot, a school nurse in Monmouth.

Sarah Sartory is the school nurse at Fryeburg Academy, a private school minutes from the New Hampshire border, and said hundreds of her students are now “noncompliant” because that state’s immunization program isn’t compatible with Maine’s. She can’t access work that has already been done to collect vaccine records in New Hampshire. Instead, she’s responsible for pulling the original immunization files from doctors’ offices for every student.

“This is time that I just don’t have,” Sartory said. “I don’t see the benefit to the students. I don’t see the benefit to our school. It’s a hindrance to school nurses.”

In their letter to lawmakers, the nurses wrote that the comprehensive, personally identifying data required by Docket for Schools, “raises concerns about overreach and unnecessary data exposure” because state statute only requires summary reports.

Several nurses said that since the COVID-19 pandemic, they have felt overburdened with work, and had to rebuild relationships with families that eroded during that tense period. They’re concerned that parents didn’t give informed consent to have detailed personal information be uploaded to a third-party platform.

AGENCIES RESPOND

In response to last week’s letter, state agencies announced they had extended the deadline for the annual immunization report to February, added a new feature to the system that will allow nurses to add or remove students without redoing the entire roster, and said that school staff are no longer responsible for correcting errors made by primary care offices.

Other efforts include live assistance with the record review and upload process, and on-site visits if requested.

Maine’s Departments of Education and Health and Human Services said in a joint statement that the user agreement only allows the release of records in compliance with federal privacy laws.

They also noted that personally identifiable data can only be accessed at the school level, while state officials can only view aggregate-level data.

The agency spokespeople said the third-party platform will ensure the summary reports are thorough and accurate by automating the review process, and that real-time record keeping will be essential to the Maine CDC in the case of an outbreak.

“Following the transition to Docket, it will mean less work for schools and easier record keeping, including when students move between schools,” they said.

For now, nurses said the program feels like reinventing the wheel with no benefit. Sartory, from Fryeburg, said she appreciates that the state extended the report deadline, but is still frustrated that the burden of transition has fallen to nurses.

“That still doesn’t mean I have more hours in my day,” she said.