Republicans haven’t won New Hampshire in a presidential election in decades. However, as President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance rocked the Democratic Party, political strategists say there’s an opening for former President Donald Trump to flip the state this November. 

Political science experts are pointing to two polls indicating Biden has cause for concern in a state that typically has Democratic presidential candidates’ backs. 

A poll conducted after the debate by New Hampshire’s Saint Anselm College Survey Center shows Trump leading Biden by 2 points in the Granite State.  

Last week’s poll follows a a late May survey conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which gave Biden only a single-digit edge. 

That’s a drop from 2020 when Biden handily won New Hampshire with a 7% lead. 

“I do think we are now in a battleground,” Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, told Fox News.

The Trump campaign has jumped for the jugular. 

“Joe Biden abandoned New Hampshire when he canned our first in the nation primary, and his policies have given our state more inflation, record-high energy bills, an increasingly unaffordable housing market, and an immigration crisis at our northern Canadian border,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told the Washington Examiner.

She said Biden’s set to “[lose] the Granite State and President Trump is poised to flip it red for the first time in more than twenty years.”

New England College president Wayne Lesperance, a veteran New Hampshire-based political science professor, agreed, telling Fox News that his state “is in play.”

“Biden’s performance at the most recent debate has pushed Democrats to question his ability to campaign, win and govern. Recent polls in New Hampshire point to continued rock-solid support by Republicans for Trump. Democratic support seems to be faltering with some looking at independent candidates,” Lesperance said. “As long as questions remain about Biden’s ability to go forward, the President will continue to bleed support, putting the Granite State in play.”

While New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman Christopher Ager told the Washington Examiner that New Hampshire is “definitely a battleground state after the debate — you can feel the momentum shifting in favor of President Trump,” Republicans have their work cut out for them. With wins in every presidential race in New Hampshire since before 9/11, Democrats hold a significant infrastructural advantage over the GOP. The Biden campaign has 14 offices across the state. The Trump campaign has only one field office. 

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Meanwhile, Levesque warns that in New Hampshire, “the good news for Biden is he’s weak with the people who self-describe as very liberal. Just 67% support. That means, in the end, most likely many of those people are going to vote for Biden even if they don’t want to admit it right now.”

New Hampshire voters are famously independent. As 2023 came to a close, Republican Jay Ruais successfully challenged four-term Democratic Mayor Joyce Craig in Manchester, flipping the city red for the first time in years, and proving neither party can afford to take votes for granted in the Granite State

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High levels of ground level ozone will lead to an air quality alert in New Jersey from 11 a.m. to 11 p.m. Sunday, July 7, according to the National Weather Service.

The region will be under a “Code Orange Air Quality Action Day” as breathing outdoors will become unhealthy for some vulnerable groups of people, according to the Mount Holly station of the weather service.

The Air Quality Index for much of central and southern New Jersey, including Monmouth and Ocean counties, is predicted to be over 100 on Sunday. People with asthma, young children, elderly adults and outdoor workers are among the groups who may experience symptoms from breathing ozone-contaminated air, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Breathing ozone can lead to coughing and sore throats, pain with breathing and lung inflammation, according to the federal agency. Exposure can aggravate lung diseases, such as emphysema and chronic bronchitis, and lead to more frequent asthma attacks, according to the EPA.

Ground level ozone is created when sunlight, heat and pollution from gas-powered cars, factories and power plants interact. Even low levels of ground level ozone can be harmful, according to the EPA.

To limit the affects, stay indoors, avoid outdoor exercise and activity mid-day, or move activities to the early morning or evening hours, according to the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection.

Amanda Oglesby is an Ocean County native who covers education and the environment. She has worked for the Press for more than 15 years. Reach her at @OglesbyAPP, aoglesby@gannettnj.com or 732-557-5701.

(The Center Square) — Political advertising in Pennsylvania for the 2024 presidential election is predicted to reach $360 million, the highest level in the nation.

Overall spending, including down-ballot races, is projected to be $800 million, the 3rd-highest in the nation.

This is according to The Political Projections Report, which was released on Monday by advertisement tracking company AdImpact.

Swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina will play especially critical roles in the presidential election, the report found.

“With spending centralized in a handful of swing states that will ultimately decide the election, we expect the general to see $2.16B, a 17% increase over 2020.”

Pennsylvania will also likely see record levels of spending on both Senate and down-ballot races as well.

“With Democrats on the defensive this fall, spending will overwhelmingly occur in several key battleground states: Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Maryland, Michigan, and Wisconsin,” the report found.

All of these numbers are significantly higher than in past election cycles.

The report anticipates a 19% growth in overall advertising in the upcoming election cycle over the 2020 election season, with spending through June 30th already “pacing $529M ahead of the 2020 cycle.”

This comes as political advertising just begins to enter what AdImpact calls the “true spending season,” which runs from July 1 through Election Day.

Nationwide political advertising spending will likely reach a record high $10.69 billion, making it the “most expensive on record.”

The $10.69 billion was a revision from its earlier-predicted number of $10.2 billion.

Pennsylvania also saw an upward revision of $62 million from the past report, giving it the 5th-largest increase.

Much of the spending comes from political interest groups like Planned Parenthood, who are particularly motivated to spend in states with ballot initiatives dealing with abortion, marijuana, or other issues.

According to AdImpact, if Pennsylvania decides to take up an initiative on one of those issues, there’s a “strong indication” that “it will see an influx of additional expenditures.”

Elyse Apel is an apprentice reporter with The Center Square, covering Georgia and North Carolina. She is a 2024 graduate of Hillsdale College.