Boston, MA
Seedy K’s GameCap: Boston College
It is obviously difficult to pick nits — or clean the burrs out of your shoes — when your team beats a conference foe with four touchdown 56-28 dispatch.
Yes, I’m most pleased, as I’m sure most of the Cards’ fans are.
But there are reasons for concern, mostly on the defensive side of the ball.
* * * * *
But, first there’s these smile inducing observations.
In the first half, the Cards had six possessions. They scored six touchdowns.
To quote Ed Kallay, long time Louisville play by play guy a long time ago, “You can’t do much better than that.”
The last tally was the sweetest. With :33 on the clock before halftime, the Cards got the ball on their own 25, after BC had scored TDs on consecutive possessions.
As he did last week, when in a similar situation, Jeff Brohm called a timeout.
This time around the team lined up for a half ending kneel down.
Did you groan? I certainly did.
Ah, how we love glorious trickeration that works. Jack Plummer slipped the ball to Jawhar Jordan, who rambled for 42 yards. Two plays later, Plummer found All TP wideout Jamari Thrash for a deep ball TD connection.*
*Was that unsportsmanlike call against Thrash totally idiotic? For spinning the ball. Why, yes, yes it was.
Anyway 42-14 at the break.
In the opening two quarters, Jordan toted it 14 times for 122. Plummer was 12/14 for 243 and three TDS. His QBR war 302.2. (More about that in a moment.)
The Cards had 376 total yards (vs. 199). They averaged 10.4 yards per play, and were 5/5 on first down.
The game was well in hand.
* * * * *
U of L opened the 3d Q with a 75 yard screen and scurry to Jordan for a TD.
On the first play.
49-14.
As they had on the two previous possessions, the visitors immediately answered with a 22 yard Touchdown throw.
The combatants traded 3 & Outs, then Plummer found Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for a 55 yard TD.
At that 56-21 juncture of the runaway, Plummer was 16/18 for 379 yards and 5 scores. His QBR was a glossy 357.4.*
*Now for a brief aside, a contemplation of the college Quarterback Rating stat. Because JP connected on his next two throws, but his rating dropped a tick or two.
So, I looked up the formula.
NCAA Passer Rating = ((8.4 x Passing Yards) + (330 x Touchdown Passes) + (100 x Number of Completions) – (200 x Interceptions)) ÷ Passing Attempts
Uh, those of you with a PHD in Analytical Mathematics feel free to pull out your slide rules and see if you can figure it all out. I. Have. Not. A. Clue.
I’m advised, after minimal googlizing that a QBR of 1261 is the highest possible, -731 the lowest. ??????
What I know is that Plummer and the eight receivers with catches were playing at a reasonably high level.
* * * * *
The Cards generally cruised from there.
Against a truly not very good team. Especially on the D side of the ball.
But U of L’s defense also leaves a lot to be desired. Especially concerning with a visit to Raleigh coming up on short rest.
Missed tackles. Missed assignments. Sluggish receivers wide open in the middle of the field. (I’m not alone in my dismay. HC Brohm was vocally upset at the D a number of times, expressing his displeasure as they came to the sideline.)
Little appreciative effective pressure for the most part.
The secondary, to their credit, did notch 7 breakups, a good number.
The Cards had but three sacks. And only three QB hurries.
Coming into the game, against the country’s 114th hardest schedule — read: one of the easiest in the land — Louisville was ranked 129th in sacks and 113th in TFLs.
In a game, when U of L reserves should have seen significantly more PT than they did, they couldn’t because the Eagles were able to stay somewhat in the game when they shouldn’t.
If U of L is going to build on its best start in seven seasons, the D is going to have to tighten the bolts.
* * * * *
But, for now, 4-0. A testing Friday night battle on Tobacco Road with the nation looking on.
— c d kaplan
Boston, MA
Boston City Councilor will introduce
BOSTON – It could cost you more to get a soda soon. The Boston City Council is proposing a tax on sugary drinks, saying the money on unhealthy beverages can be put to good use.
A benefit for public health?
“I’ve heard from a lot of residents in my district who are supportive of a tax on sugary beverages, but they want to make sure that these funds are used for public health,” said City Councilor Sharon Durkan, who is introducing the “Sugar Tax,” modeled on Philadelphia and Seattle. She said it’s a great way to introduce and fund health initiatives and slowly improve public health.
A study from Boston University found that cities that implemented a tax on sugary drinks saw a 33% decrease in sales.
“What it does is it creates an environment where we are discouraging the use of something that we know, over time, causes cancer, causes diet-related diseases, causes obesity and other diet-related illnesses,” she said.
Soda drinkers say no to “Sugar Tax”
Soda drinkers don’t see the benefit.
Delaney Doidge stopped by the store to get a mid-day pick-me-up on Tuesday.
“I wasn’t planning on getting anything, but we needed toilet paper, and I wanted a Diet Coke, so I got a Diet Coke,” she said, adding that a tax on sugary drinks is an overreach, forcing her to ask: What’s next?
“Then we’d have to tax everything else that brings people enjoyment,” Doidge said. “If somebody wants a sweet treat, they deserve it, no tax.”
Store owners said they’re worried about how an additional tax would impact their businesses.
Durkan plans to bring the tax idea before the City Council on Wednesday to start the conversation about what rates would look like.
Massachusetts considered a similar tax in 2017.
Boston, MA
Patience over panic: Kristaps Porzingis and the Celtics struggles
The Celtics aren’t playing great basketball. Coincidence or not, this stretch has coincided with the return and reintegration of Kristaps Porzingis. In 23 games without the big man, Boston has a record of 19-4—with him in the lineup, that falls to a much less flattering 9-7 record.
This has put his value on trial, and opened the door to discussions about whether a move to the bench could be helpful for everyone involved. It’s not a crazy idea by any means, but it’s shortsighted and an oversimplification of why the team has struggled of late.
While Kristaps attempts to slide back into his role, there’s an adjustment period that the team naturally has to go through. That’s roughly 13 shots per game being taken from the collective and handed to one individual. It’s a shift that can impact that entire rotation, but it’s also not unfamiliar to the team—by now, they’re used to the cycle of Porzingis’ absence and return.
KP hasn’t been the same game-breaking player that we’ve come to know, but he’s not that far off. He isn’t hunting shots outside of the flow of the offense, and the coaching staff isn’t force-feeding him either.
This table shows a comparison in the volume and efficiency of Kristaps’ most used play types from the past two seasons. Across the board, the possessions per game have remained very similar, while the efficiency has taken a step back.
He’s shooting below the standard he established for himself during the championship run, but the accuracy should come around as he gets more comfortable and confident in his movements post-injury. Porzingis opened up about this after a win over the Nuggets, sharing his progress.
“80-85%. I still have a little bit to go.” Porzingis said. “I know that moment is coming when everything will start clicking, and I’ll play really high-level basketball.”
In theory, sending KP to the bench would allow him to face easier matchups and build his conditioning back up. On a similar note, he and the starters have a troubling -8.9 net rating. With that said, abandoning this unit so quickly is an overreaction and works against the purpose of the regular season.
It may require patience, but we’re talking about a starting lineup that had a +17.3 net rating over seven playoff games together. Long term, it’s more valuable to let them figure it out, rather than opt for a temporary fix.
It can’t be ignored that the Celtics are also getting hit by a wrecking ball of poor shooting luck in his minutes. Opponents are hitting 33.78% of their three-pointers with him on the bench, compared to a ridiculously efficient 41.78% when he’s on the court. To make matters worse, Boston is converting 37.21% of their own 3’s without KP, and just 32.95% with him.
Overall, there’s a -8.83% differential between team and opponent 3PT efficiency with Porzingis in the game. This is simply unsustainable, and it’s due for positive regression eventually.
Despite his individual offensive struggles, Porzingis has been elite as a rim protector. Among 255 players who have defended at least 75 shots within 6 feet of the basket, he has the best defensive field goal percentage in the NBA at 41.2%. Players are shooting 20.9% worse than expected when facing Kristaps at the rim.
Boston is intentional about which shooters they’re willing to leave open and when to funnel drives toward Porzingis. Teams are often avoiding these drives, and accepting open looks from mediocre shooters—recently, with great success. Both of these factors play into the stark difference in opponent 3PT%.
The numbers paint a disappointing picture, but from a glass-half-full perspective, there’s plenty of room for positive regression. Last season, the starting lineup shot 39.31% from beyond the arc and limited opponents to 36.75%. This year, they’ve struggled, shooting just 27.61% themselves, while opponents are converting at an absurd 46.55%.
Ultimately, the Celtics’ struggles seem more like a temporary blip, fueled by frustrating shooting luck and a slow return to form for Kristaps, rather than a reason to panic. The core of this team has already proven their ability to perform together at a high level, and sticking with the current configuration gives them the best chance to break out of the slump.
Allowing Porzingis to round into shape and cranking up the defensive intensity should help offset some of the shooting woes. As Porzingis eloquently put it, “with this kind of talent in this locker room, it’s impossible that we don’t start playing better basketball.” When water finds its level, the game will start to look easy again.
Boston, MA
Frigid wind chill temperatures today
The wind is back. And no one is happy.
Well, at least it won’t be 10 days of it. Instead, you’ll have to settle for two, with occasional gusts to 35-40 mph. Not nearly as intense as the last go-round, but still enough to produce wind chills in the single digits and teens through Wednesday. Thursday the winds are much lighter, but even with a slight breeze, we may see wind chills near zero in the morning.
The pattern remains active, but we’ll have to wait a few days until our next batch of precipitation. And with temperatures warming, it looks like rain by Saturday afternoon. We’ll rise into the 40s through Sunday, then feel the full weight of the polar vortex early next week.
Yes, you read that right. The spin, the hype, and definitely the cold, are back. Much of the country will plunge into the deep freeze. The question remains whether we’ll spin up a storm early next week. Jury is still out on that, but we’re certain this will be the coldest airmass of the season.
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