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Why Trump is focusing on business deals on his Middle East trip

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Why Trump is focusing on business deals on his Middle East trip

President Trump waves after taking questions from reporters outside the White House on May 8.

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President Trump leaves Monday for the first major foreign trip of his second term, focusing on business deals in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as his administration struggles to broker an end to the war in Gaza.

Trump pledged to bring peace to the region as he ran for a second term, but that is proving to be elusive. On this trip, he will showcase a promise by Saudi Arabia to invest $600 billion in the United States over the next four years and pledges from the UAE to spend $1.4 trillion over 10 years.

“The Saudis, the Emiratis and Qataris are going to fall all over themselves over who can outdo themselves to welcome the president,” said Steven Cook, a senior fellow for the Middle East at the Council on Foreign Relations. “And then they will outdo themselves over the number of deals that they can announce as the president is there.”

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In many ways, the trip is a replay of the inaugural foreign trip of Trump’s first term. The Saudis welcomed Trump with a lavish ceremony and announcements of billions of dollars in investments.

In this May 21, 2017, photo, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Saudi King Salman and President Trump place their hands on an illuminated globe as they stand around it.

In 2017, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (from left), Saudi King Salman and President Trump attend a ceremonial launch of the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology.

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Cook said the Gulf leaders understand what Trump wants — and have an interest in giving it to him — because there are other things they don’t want Trump to ask about.

“It’s good for them because when he comes to them and says, ‘We want your help doing something on Gaza,’ and they’re not inclined to do it, they will be insulated from the criticism that would likely come if they just didn’t do anything,” Cook said.

Back in 2017, Trump sought to shore up relationships in the region after implementing a travel ban on some Muslim-majority countries — and did some business with autocratic leaders seeking global credibility.

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In this 2017 photo, taken at a welcome ceremony in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, President Trump is wearing a dark suit and holding a sword while flanked by men wearing traditional white robes who are also holding swords.

President Trump joins dancers with swords at a welcome ceremony in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 20, 2017.

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The White House said this trip will highlight strengthening ties in the region.

“President Trump will return to reemphasize his continued vision for a proud, prosperous and successful Middle East, where the United States and Middle Eastern nations are in cooperative relationships and where extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Friday.

But the unrest and uncertainty in the region have complicated the messaging, said Karen Young, a political economist focusing on the Gulf at the Middle East Institute.

“A lot of the rhetoric is the same, but the world has changed,” she said.

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Trump’s biggest policy goals are currently beyond reach

Trump has some big goals in the region for his second term: end fighting in Gaza, stop Iran’s advances toward becoming a nuclear power and persuade Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel by joining what’s known as the Abraham Accords.

But Saudi Arabia — which has long called for an independent Palestinian state — is unlikely to be interested in those accords right now because of the war in Gaza, said Dennis Ross, who worked on Middle East issues for both the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations.

“Mohammed bin Salman [Saudi Arabia’s crown prince] is very likely to say that so sours the atmosphere, that that’s not something that he can be engaging in at this time,” said Ross, who’s now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

In this 2017 photo, President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are shaking hands while standing in front of U.S. and Saudi flags. Trump is on the right, wearing a suit and tie, and Salman is on the left, wearing a traditional Saudi robe.

President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meet in Riyadh on May 20, 2017.

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Any discussions about the accords are likely to happen behind closed doors, Ross said.

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It also makes the business deals more important for Trump.

“Right now, the president doesn’t have a lot of successes to point to,” Ross said.” So I think he’s going to want to play up the trip in terms of showing, ‘Look what I’m producing for the United States.’”

What happened on Trump’s first trip to Riyadh

During Trump’s first trip to Riyadh, the Saudi capital, in 2017, nearly $110 billion in arms deals were announced, and the administration said that other investments could boost that total to as much as $350 billion.

Since then, the State Department said, the U.S. government has “implemented” $30 billion in foreign military “cases” with Saudi Arabia. Put another way: The Riyadh announcement was the easy part.

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“There are a lot of steps in any arms sales process,” said John Parachini, a senior defense researcher at the Rand Corp. The process involves complex negotiations, multiple federal agencies, Congress, arms manufacturers and the customer countries.

But that complexity wasn’t part of how Trump sold it.

“That’s the style of this particular president. He’s going to send a strong signal that he’s supporting American business, but these things are really complicated and can take years,” Parachini said.

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Video: Nvidia Shows Off New A.I. Chip at CES

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Nvidia Shows Off New A.I. Chip at CES

At the annual tech conference, CES, Nvidia showed off a new A.I. chip, known as Vera Rubin, which is more efficient and powerful than previous generations of chips.

This is the Vera CPU. This is one CPU. This is groundbreaking work. I would not be surprised if the industry would like us to make this format and this structure an industry standard in the future. Today, we’re announcing Alpamayo, the world’s first thinking, reasoning autonomous vehicle A.I.

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At the annual tech conference, CES, Nvidia showed off a new A.I. chip, known as Vera Rubin, which is more efficient and powerful than previous generations of chips.

By Jiawei Wang

January 6, 2026

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Lawmakers split over Maduro’s seizure. And, CDC cuts childhood vaccine schedule

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Lawmakers split over Maduro’s seizure. And, CDC cuts childhood vaccine schedule

Good morning. You’re reading the Up First newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox, and listen to the Up First podcast for all the news you need to start your day.

Today’s top stories

Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty yesterday to federal charges, which include narco-terrorism. U.S. military forces seized them both from their country over the weekend. Yesterday marked their first appearance in a federal court in New York.

Protesters express their anger toward ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and fly the Venezuelan flag outside the Daniel Patrick Moynihan United States Courthouse in New York City on Monday.

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  • 🎧 Before sitting down in court, Maduro made eye contact with reporters and wished them a “Happy New Year,” NPR’s Jasmine Garsd, who was in the courtroom, tells Up First. Flores walked in behind him and appeared to have a swollen eye and a bandaged forehead, which her lawyers explained came from her getting hurt during her capture. Outside the courthouse were heated exchanges between two groups of protesters: those who were against America’s intervention in Venezuela and Venezuelans celebrating Maduro’s capture. A man named Izzy McCabe says the capture is a ploy to take oil and foreign resources from Venezuela. Another protester, Maria Seu, said many countries have been living off Venezuela’s resources for years.

President Trump is set to meet with House Republicans at the Kennedy Center today as lawmakers call for more information on the operation in Venezuela and the U.S. role there moving forward. The meeting comes a day after top administration officials briefed Capitol Hill leaders on Maduro’s capture, leaving a largely partisan divide on the operation. Lawmakers questioned Trump’s decision not to inform Congress before carrying out the weekend seizure. Democrats say the action, which the White House is calling a law enforcement operation, is an act of war. Meanwhile, Republicans have largely aligned with the president’s stance on the situation.

  • 🎧 Democrats say the operation is just the latest example of the White House circumventing Congress, NPR’s Barbara Sprunt says. House Speaker Mike Johnson said Trump has the authority to deploy military forces to address threats to the U.S. When the president has joined meetings like the one he is expected to attend today in the past, it has become almost like a rally. Sprunt says she expects the same again today. The party is gearing up for the midterm elections, which means Venezuela will likely not be the only topic discussed.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is reducing its number of recommended childhood vaccines from 17 to 11. The agency’s new schedule, which includes vaccines that had previously been recommended for all children — such as those for rotavirus, hepatitis A and B, meningitis and seasonal flu — is now more restrictive. The agency made these changes in response to a memo Trump issued in December directing health officials to align the U.S. schedule with those in “peer, developed countries” such as Germany and Japan.

  • 🎧 The new restrictions will lead to fewer children getting vaccinated, with consequences that could be seen for years down the line, Dr. Sean O’Leary, with the American Academy of Pediatrics, tells NPR’s Pien Huang. The agency implemented these changes without any new scientific developments behind them, Huang notes. The agency sidestepped its own advisory committee and didn’t consult vaccine makers.

Today’s listen

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Does the lack of winter sunlight drain your energy, or do you struggle to keep up with life’s demands during this season? If so, you may be experiencing seasonal affective disorder, or SAD. In this episode of It’s Been A Minute, host Brittany Luse shares the morning routine she developed for herself to combat this type of depression. She is also joined by Dr. Norman E. Rosenthal, a psychiatrist and scientist who first described seasonal affective disorder in the 1980s, to receive feedback on her SAD routine and learn about how we can all think differently about the rough winter months.

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Special series

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Trump has tried to bury the truth of what happened on Jan. 6, 2021. NPR built a visual archive of the attack on the Capitol, showing exactly what happened through the lenses of the people who were there. In “Chapter 2: Stop the Steal,” we look at how false claims of a stolen election mobilized Trump supporters.

On election night in 2020, Trump claimed victory and said the election was being stolen long before officials declared a winner. He and his allies launched the “Stop the Steal” movement almost immediately, even as U.S. courts rejected the widespread claims of election fraud. Trump campaign officials also admitted they found no evidence that could have changed the outcome of the election. Right-wing activists such as Infowars host Alex Jones and the white nationalist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes mobilized the movement. On the day that Congress was set to meet to certify the election, Trump pressured Vice President Mike Pence and Republicans in Congress to try to reject Biden’s victory. These videos highlight the movement that led to Jan. 6, 2021.

To learn more, explore NPR’s database of federal criminal cases from Jan. 6. You can also see more of NPR’s reporting on the topic, including an Instagram post debunking myths about looting.

3 things to know before you go

A pill form of Wegovy, the popular obesity drug previously available only by injection, is seen in a plastic tray.

A pill form of Wegovy, the popular obesity drug previously available only by injection, is now being stocked by pharmacies.

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  1. Pharmacies across the U.S. began stocking the pill version of the popular obesity drug Wegovy yesterday, offering patients an alternative to the injectable form.
  2. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz ended his bid for a third term yesterday, saying that he wants to dedicate his final year in office to combating fraud in state programs rather than campaigning. (via MPR)
  3. Wegmans says it is using facial recognition technology in a handful of stores across multiple states to help identify people “previously flagged for misconduct.” (via WXXI)

This newsletter was edited by Suzanne Nuyen.

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US oil refiners gear up for comeback of Venezuelan crude

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US oil refiners gear up for comeback of Venezuelan crude

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US refiners are braced for a surge in Venezuelan crude that would make them early winners of President Donald Trump’s extraordinary plans for an energy-led regime change in Caracas.

Shares in America’s top refining groups jumped on Monday as traders bet their US Gulf Coast operations could snap up big volumes of Venezuelan heavy crude as Washington looks to ease sanctions and revive production.

Valero, the biggest US importer of Venezuelan crude, closed 9 per cent higher. Phillips 66 added 7 per cent and Marathon Petroleum 6 per cent. 

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“Our refineries in the Gulf Coast of the United States are the best in terms of refining the heavy crude,” said US secretary of state Marco Rubio on Sunday. “I think there will be tremendous demand and interest from private industry if given the space to do it.”

Trump this weekend touted the “tremendous amount of wealth” that could be generated by American oil companies returning to Venezuela’s oil sector after US forces captured President Nicolás Maduro and transported him to the US to face trial on drug-trafficking charges. 

That has sparked a burst of interest among energy investors keen to return to Venezuela — home to the biggest oil reserves in the world — decades after expropriations by Caracas led most to abandon the country. 

A flurry of executives was expected to arrive in Miami on Tuesday, where US energy secretary Chris Wright will pitch the benefits of channelling billions of dollars into reviving Venezuelan oil output, which has fallen from 3.7mn barrels a day in 1970 to less than 1mn b/d today as a result of chronic mismanagement, corruption and sanctions. 

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While any investment by US companies in rejuvenating Venezuelan oil production could take time, Gulf Coast refiners are well positioned to hoover up crude shipments as soon as sanctions are eased and more import permits are granted, something analysts say could happen quickly. 

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“Near-term, Gulf Coast refiners could be among the biggest winners of shifts that could occur here,” said Dylan White, principal analyst for North American crude markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. 

“The investment side of the coin in Venezuela is much more slow moving. It’s turning a very slow ship and it involves high-level decisions from a number of companies,” he said. “[But] sanctions policy changing in the US could change the economic benefits for US Gulf Coast refiners tomorrow.”

American refiners and traders import about 100,000-200,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude, down from 1.4mn b/d in 1997. Under current US sanctions, Chevron is the only American producer allowed to operate in the country and imports of Venezuelan crude are heavily restricted.

As much as 80 per cent of Venezuelan exports had been bound for China before the US imposed a naval embargo last month. Much of that could be quickly rerouted to the US if sanctions were lifted.

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“The natural proximal home for a lot of those Venezuelan heavy barrels would be the refining complex of the US Gulf Coast,” said Clayton Seigle, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adding that the fact that the facilities were equipped to process Venezuelan heavy oil could explain “some of the short-term stock market reactions that we observed”.

Valero, Philips 66 and Marathon did not respond to requests for comment on their plans.

US refineries were largely set up before the shale revolution made America the world’s biggest oil producer. Almost 70 per cent of US refining capacity is designed primarily to handle the heavy grades common in Venezuela, Canada and Mexico rather than the light, sweet variety found in Texas oilfields, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers.

Consultancy S&P Global Energy estimates that from 1990 to 2010, US refiners spent about $100bn on heavy crude processing capabilities, just before the fracking boom sent American production soaring.

“This finally gets some of the [return on investment] back,” said Debnil Chowdhury, Americas head of refining and marketing at S&P, of the potential for a return to significant imports of Venezuelan heavy oil.

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“We had a system that was kind of running de-optimised for the last 10-15 years. And this allows it to get a little bit closer to what it was designed for — which means slightly higher yields, higher margins.

“You get to basically use your asset more how it was designed because you’re getting the feedstock it was designed for.”

Data visualisation by Eva Xiao in New York

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