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What neutrality would mean for Ukraine, Russia and the war

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What neutrality would mean for Ukraine, Russia and the war

Might neutrality provide a approach out of the Ukrainian conflict?

Though a gathering between the Russian and Ukrainian overseas ministers led to failure on Thursday, there have been hints of a potential diplomatic path based mostly on the concept of neutrality.

Ukrainian officers have in current days advised that impartial standing with safety ensures might be a substitute for Nato membership, a crimson line for Moscow for years.

“Relating to [joining] Nato, I’ve cooled down relating to this query a very long time in the past, after we understood that Nato isn’t ready to just accept Ukraine,” President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned in an interview with ABC Information this week.

His overseas minister Dmytro Kuleba mentioned on Thursday: “The actual difficulty for Ukraine is difficult safety ensures, much like those that members of Nato have.”

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He added: “We’d like these ensures primarily from Russia, as a result of it’s the nation that dedicated an act of aggression towards us. But additionally from different international locations, together with everlasting members of the UN Safety Council.”

Sergei Lavrov, Russian overseas minister, mentioned: “We wish Ukraine to remain impartial . . . We’re prepared to speak about safety ensures for the Ukrainian state together with safety ensures for the European state and naturally for the safety of Russia. Judging from what President Zelensky is saying, he’s beginning to perceive this method; it makes us cautiously optimistic.”

What would neutrality imply for Ukraine?

The target of Nato membership is written into Ukraine’s structure. However the alliance has by no means put Kyiv on a agency path to membership. The nation’s recognition, in Kuleba’s phrases, that “regardless of all of our efforts, Nato isn’t able to combine us” doesn’t imply Ukraine is prepared to surrender its aspirations in return for nothing.

François Heisbourg, an adviser to the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique think-tank, mentioned there are principally two types of neutrality.

The primary is armed neutrality, the mannequin that has served international locations resembling Switzerland and Finland: they haven’t joined bigger pacts however bolstered their defences all the identical.

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Some commentators this yr advised that Ukraine’s “Finlandisation” — giving up on its Nato aspirations and assuming a non-aligned standing — may have averted conflict. However Helsinki — which objects to the “Finlandisation” time period — has a robust and well-equipped armed forces that might be hardly appropriate with the demilitarisation Russia needs with Ukraine.

Heisbourg mentioned that two of Russia’s important targets for the conflict — so-called denazification, which he takes to imply regime change, and demilitarisation — “run counter to any capability to take care of neutrality”, supposedly the third of the Kremlin’s goals.

What about safety ensures?

The opposite mannequin referred to by Heisbourg is treaty-based neutrality, involving the type of safety ensures Kuleba referred to. One instance of that is the 1839 Treaty of London, which performed an enormous position within the begin of the primary world conflict, when Britain declared conflict after Germany invaded impartial Belgium.

Ukraine insists safety ensures must underpin neutrality. However its expertise of comparable commitments has hardly been a cheerful one. In 1994 it was given safety assurances by the US, UK, and Russia beneath the so-called Budapest Memorandum, in return for giving up the nuclear weapons left on its territory after the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Heisbourg mentioned the credibility of such a mannequin — the place neutrality is assured by a bunch of outsiders — “is actually zero, as a result of there was a three-power assure after independence . . . in return for Ukraine eliminating the nuclear weapons that occurred to be on its territory.” He added: “That didn’t go very properly” — a reference to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and this yr’s invasion.

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With such a historical past, Ukrainians are hardly going to be reassured by Russian ensures and it’s onerous to see what sort of western defence dedication to Kyiv can be acceptable to Moscow.

What now?

The 2 warring international locations nonetheless appear to recommend that discuss of neutrality may assist silence the weapons.

“Russia isn’t able to make an settlement in the present day, it doesn’t imply they received’t be prepared to take action tomorrow,” mentioned Kuleba.

Zelensky advised on Tuesday he may be open to a compromise on the longer term standing of the Russian occupied areas of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.

However Moscow’s wider navy goals — notably the substitute of a democratically elected authorities with one aligned with the Kremlin — seemingly depart little room for compromise.

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Cliff Kupchan, chair of Eurasia group, a political threat consultancy, described the “widespread vocabulary” on neutrality and safety ensures as “a begin that’s higher than nothing” however cautioned: “Is [Russian President Vladimir] Putin actually able to reside with Zelensky?”

He added: “The Russians appear poised to regulate the Black Beach, they’re underperforming however nonetheless transferring — in the event that they suppose they’ll management extra territory within the east, encircle Kyiv and obtain the relative destruction of the Ukrainian navy, why would they reduce a deal?” 

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Global IT outage could take weeks to resolve, experts warn

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Global IT outage could take weeks to resolve, experts warn

Many businesses will probably take days or even weeks to recover fully from Friday’s unprecedented computing outage, IT experts have warned, after a faulty software update from the company they trusted to secure their systems caused massive global disruption.

CrowdStrike, one of the world’s largest security vendors, blamed an update to its Falcon software for a bug that broke countless Windows PCs and servers, grounding planes, postponing hospital appointments and taking broadcasters off air around the world.

Cirium, an aviation analytics company, said on Saturday that airlines had cancelled a further 1,848 flights, mostly in the US, though Australia, India and Canada were also affected.

The outages were all the more shocking given CrowdStrike’s strong reputation as many companies’ first line of defence against cyber attacks, analysts said.

“This is the first time that a widely deployed security agent, that is designed to protect machines, is actually causing them to break,” said Neil MacDonald, analyst at IT consultancy Gartner.

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The only remedy for Windows users affected by the “blue screen of death” error involves rebooting the computer and manually deleting CrowdStrike’s botched file update, requiring hands-on access to each device.

That means it could take days or weeks to apply in businesses with thousands of Windows machines or a shortage of IT workers to administer the change, experts say.

“It seems that millions of computers are going to have to be fixed by hand,” said Mikko Hyppönen, chief research officer at WithSecure, a cyber security company.

“The most critical machines like the CEO’s laptop are already fixed — but for the average Joe in finance it’s going to take a while until someone comes over to fix your laptop.”

Exacerbating the impact of its error is the large scale and the high-profile nature of many of CrowdStrike’s users.

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The Austin, Texas-based company said it had more than 29,000 business customers at the end of 2023, and has claimed in marketing material that its software is used by more than half of the Fortune 500.

“Despite [CrowdStrike] being actually a fairly large company, the idea that it would shut down the world is extraordinary,” said Marshall Lux, visiting fellow at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.

The global ripple effect illustrates “the interconnectivity of all these things” and “concentration risk in this market”, Lux added.

Software vendors “have clearly become so large and so interconnected” that their failures can damage the global economic system, wrote Citi analyst Fatima Boolani in a note to clients. This could invite greater political and regulatory scrutiny.

Gartner estimates that CrowdStrike’s share of revenues in the global enterprise endpoint security market — which involves scanning PCs, phones and other devices for cyber attacks — is more than double that of its three closest rivals: Trellix, Trend Micro and Sophos. Only Microsoft is larger.

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In CrowdStrike’s latest earnings call in June, chief executive George Kurtz said there was “a widespread crisis of confidence amongst security and IT teams within the Microsoft security customer base” following a series of high profile cyber incidents affecting the Big Tech giant.

CrowdStrike, which was founded in 2011, said it saw a surge in demand after Microsoft said earlier this year that its systems had been breached by state sponsored hackers.

In May it launched a product designed to work alongside Microsoft’s own Defender antivirus protection tool.

On Friday, as Kurtz apologised to CrowdStrike’s customers, he emphasised that the incident was “not a cyber attack” and insisted that CrowdStrike’s customers “remain fully protected”.

But security researchers warned that fraudsters could take advantage of the chaos to impersonate Microsoft or CrowdStrike agents for phishing scams.

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“We see this happening with every major cyber incident that is in the news,” said Vasileios Karagiannopoulos, an associate professor of cyber crime and cyber security at the University of Portsmouth. 

Cybersecurity firm Secureworks said its researchers had observed several new CrowdStrike-themed domain registrations within hours of the incident, most likely by criminals aiming to trick the company’s customers.

Avoiding the type of error that caused Friday’s outages was “a matter of testing”, said Ian Batten, a lecturer in the School of Computer Science at the University of Birmingham. In this case it looked like someone simply “got a bit of code wrong”, he added.

Companies like CrowdStrike are under pressure to roll out new security updates as quickly as possible to defend against the latest cyber attacks.

“There’s a trade-off here between the speed of ensuring that systems get protected against new threats and the due diligence done to protect the system’s resilience and stop things like this incident from happening,” said Adam Leon Smith, a fellow of the British Computer Society, a professional IT body.

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The damage caused by this week’s flawed software update “could take days and weeks” to repair, he said.

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Biden family grapples with pressure on their patriarch to step aside

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Biden family grapples with pressure on their patriarch to step aside

President Biden had just arrived back at the White House following a weekend at Camp David with his family, walking through the doors from the South Lawn shortly after 7 p.m. He had 45 minutes before he was to deliver remarks about the Supreme Court’s decision to grant immunity to Donald Trump for official acts he took as president.

The president motioned to his son Hunter, who was standing nearby, asking him to listen and join the fine-tuning of the remarks that would be loaded into the teleprompter and delivered to a nation that had grown deeply skeptical of the president’s mental acuity in the aftermath of a stumbling, meandering debate performance four nights prior.

Hunter’s presence that evening raised eyebrows among some White House staffers, who saw it as a troubling sign that a politically problematic family member was taking a renewed part in official business. But for those in and close to the family, it was the latest sign that Hunter had stabilized his life and was assuming a role he’d long held inside his father’s orbit as a confidant and sounding board.

As remarkable as the past few weeks have been in the wider political universe, they have been equally turbulent inside the tight-knit Biden family, unfolding as the latest chapter in the clan’s long story of resolve amid tumult. Family members have flashed through a range of emotions, people close to them say — sadness, anger, determination — and are deeply frustrated by what they see as the betrayal and second-guessing of a man who has spent a half-century as a dedicated leader of the Democratic Party.

This picture of the Biden family in its patriarch’s hour of peril is based on interviews with multiple people with direct knowledge of the family’s thinking and private actions. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters related to the president’s inner circle.

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Family members have often been with Biden in recent weeks as he seeks to ride out the political storm stemming from his debate performance. First lady Jill Biden joined him for a campaign swing in Pennsylvania. After he was diagnosed with covid-19 on Wednesday and with calls escalating by the day that he reconsider his decision to stay in the race, she joined him at their home in Rehoboth Beach, Del.

Hunter, who lives in California, flew out to meet Biden when the president was in Las Vegas recently for campaign events. They have remained in close contact, with Hunter following daily, often hourly, developments, on calls with his father and acting as a sounding board and a gut check. Other family members have been exchanging their usual daily phone calls and frequent text messages.

But in a family where any member can call an emergency meeting, no one has summoned the clan to discuss the patriarch’s political future, despite the extensive speculation from outsiders about some grand family council.

The family’s anger is driven in part by a conviction that Biden could have moved beyond a bad performance in a 90-minute debate if so many Democrats had not immediately joined forces against him. They have come to view the past few weeks as a Game of Thrones-style war among various factions of the party, with the loudest calling on him to depart coming from those he has fought against in previous battles. The tone some in the party are taking in their effort to push him out has only stiffened Biden’s resolve to stay in, they say.

“It’s like they don’t know he’s Irish,” said one person close to the family.

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The most striking development in this private world may be the return of Hunter Biden to a central, supporting role, just weeks after his criminal trial made him a source of personal worry and political peril.

When he was convicted on June 11 of felony charges related to lying on a gun-purchase form, the family rallied behind him. His father called to make sure he was okay, then flew to Wilmington to embrace him on an airport tarmac.

But overnight, the father-son roles have been reversed: As Joe Biden fights for his political life, Hunter has talked with his father frequently, providing support amid a clamor of skeptical Democrats.

Interviews with several people close to family members say that, contrary to frequent depictions of Hunter and Jill Biden as irrational cheerleaders prevailing on the president to stay in while his political advisers press him to reconsider, the family dynamics are far more nuanced. The president throughout has been clear that he is not withdrawing, and they have affirmed all along that they are behind him no matter what. Biden may yet change his mind, and those close to the family say they would support that decision, too.

When it comes to Hunter Biden, the past few weeks have shown how a father and a son, each well-versed in tragedy and trauma, have handled a series of extraordinary difficult moments, their own and each other’s.

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“The thing both of them care about more than anything else is not harming the other,” said one person close to the family. “It all has a Shakespearean quality to it.”

Surviving a legal blow

On June 11, at around 11:15 a.m., a federal jury in Delaware found Hunter Biden guilty of felony gun charges. His crime was lying on a form when he bought a gun in 2018, but the week-long trial laid bare, in sometimes painful detail, his humiliating and distasteful behavior when he was in the throes of a drug addiction.

Hunter hugged each member of his legal team after the verdict, thanking them and comforting his top defense attorney, Abbe Lowell, and whispering, “It’s all right.”

He then gathered with his friends and family in a crowded room nearby for what several who were there describe as an emotional scene where Hunter was stoic even as many were in tears after a devastating verdict that shocked some in his camp.

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“Look guys, I’m going to be okay. This isn’t hell,” Hunter said, according to people who were there. “My addiction was hell. Whatever happens, I’m standing here today, and that’s what matters.”

The president, who was in Washington, called his son and hastily made plans to fly to Wilmington to see Hunter. They met on the tarmac at Delaware Air National Guard base, embracing each other before Hunter flew back to his home in Los Angeles with his wife and young son, Beau.

That evening, the president and first lady personally called some of those who had attended the trial to thank them and to ask how they thought Hunter was doing.

The answers that came back were that he seemed surprisingly strong. It was an unquestionably significant legal setback, one that could result in a prison sentence, but he seemed to have achieved some sense of personal stability.

Joe Biden soon left for the Group of Seven conference in Italy, joined by several of Hunter’s older daughters, including Naomi, who had testified at the trial.

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The weekend at Camp David

About two weeks later, as the president’s fateful debate performance played out in Atlanta, Hunter was home in California. Jill Biden was with her husband. Biden’s grandchildren were scattered around the country.

Afterward, they knew the debate had not gone well and worried about the impression it left. But it did not alter their approach to the campaign.

Many outside the family thought Biden faced an immediate decision about whether to stay in the race, but that seems never to have been a question for the president himself. He saw the debate simply as a setback in an otherwise sound campaign, a hurdle in a life full of them. That attitude was adopted by the family largely without discussion.

“There is no walking into this as if he’s like, ‘Should I get out, should I not get out?’ That’s just not who Joe Biden is,” said one person close to the family. “It’s not like he was teetering until he talked to Hunter and Jill.”

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By late Saturday night, some 48 hours after the debate, the whole family was at Camp David — not for some emergency council, but for a prearranged gathering in the days before Independence Day. Just weeks earlier, the question was how Hunter was faring against his detractors; now it was how Joe would face his.

The tone of that weekend, in private moments without political advisers, set the course for the tumultuous weeks to come: Biden was staying in and the family was backing him. The question was how to proceed with the race, not whether to.

Many in the family, like their patriarch, believe the election remains close. They dismiss polls that show otherwise and do not believe an alternative candidate would fare any better against Trump. Deep in Biden’s psyche is the conviction that he is an underdog who has consistently been underestimated by party leaders, only to prove them wrong.

But family members resist the idea that they are the ones driving the decision. They resent any notion that they are propping up the president. He is capable of making these weighty decisions as he always has, they say, with their input and backing.

There is also a redemptive quality to the family discussions.

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Five years ago, when Biden decided to run for president, the family was deeply fractured in the aftermath of his son Beau’s death, dealing with divorce, affairs and addiction. Hunter was in some ways more distant from his father than he’d ever been.

This post-debate gathering at Camp David showcased a family that was largely united, with Hunter as present in his father’s life as he was before a drug addiction tore him away.

Clear-eyed about the danger

When they returned to the White House after the weekend at Camp David, the family stayed close. They celebrated the Fourth of July together. Ashley Biden was dancing on the portico, hugging her father’s waist from behind. One granddaughter, Maisy, wore a white T-shirt with “I [heart] Joe” written on it.

Jill stood by his side. They looked on as fireworks burst in the sky.

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Hunter flew back to Los Angeles on July 5 and his father flew to Wisconsin for a campaign event. They have remained in close contact.

Biden remains certain he is the party’s best option, according to those close to the family, and they support him in that. But they also recognize that things can change quickly in politics and that Biden could be 100 percent in until he’s 100 percent out.

“Hunter would support anything his dad wanted to do and he trusts his dad’s judgment,” one person close to the family said. “If his dad said, ‘I can hand this off and I can’t do it,’ Hunter would say, ‘Dad you’re the best, I love you, I trust you and I support you.’”

Of anyone in the family, Hunter has faced the most scrutiny as a result of his father’s presidency. That arguably gives him an incentive to hope his father pulls out rather than endure a vitriolic reelection race potentially followed by four more years of an unwelcome spotlight.

But if Biden pulled out and Trump were to win, some family members worry that he would use the Justice Department to target Hunter.

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In recent days, those close to the family have become more combative as a growing number of Democrats have publicly called for him to step aside. If Biden gets out, they say, he should make the decision based on his own political gut and not because of external pressures from figures such as George Clooney, former president Barack Obama or former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Still, those in the family orbit say Biden’s relatives are not oblivious to the storms roaring around him, making the days ahead, even for them, difficult to predict.

“They are not in a bubble. They don’t have their head in the sand,” one person close to the family said. “They’ve been very clear-eyed about this from the beginning. And that has continued.”

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Anne Hidalgo, crusading Paris mayor dives into the Olympics

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Anne Hidalgo, crusading Paris mayor dives into the Olympics

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Under a blue sky, Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo took a dip in the Seine this week to applause from hundreds of onlookers, many of whom had worked on the years-long project to clean up the river for Olympic swimming events.

The stunt made worldwide headlines with just days to go before the opening of the games, boosting the already high international profile of the 65-year-old green crusader who has been mayor since 2014. She was re-elected to a second term in 2020.

Yet before Hidalgo’s long-promised swim, a social media campaign spread under the hashtag #jechiedanslaseine (“I poop in the Seine”) with people pledging to defecate to express their dislike for the mayor and her politics. “They have put us in the shit, so now it’s up to them to swim in our shit,” read a dedicated website.

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This campaign displayed the often immoderate hatred that the Socialist mayor inspires among some Parisians, who rail against her drastic reduction of car traffic and imposition of rent controls. The first female mayor of Paris ranks among the country’s least popular politicians — a recent poll showed a 70 per cent disapproval rating — and her presidential bid in 2022 was catastrophic.

Hidalgo, however, has laughed off the poop campaign, according to people who work for her, and beamed after executing a confident crawl in the Seine. The French government has spent around €1.4bn to upgrade infrastructure to hold the triathlon and marathon swimming Olympics events in the river.

“It was a dream and now it’s a reality,” she said. “After the games we will have swimming in the Seine for all Parisians.”

Pierre Rabadan, a former professional rugby player who works as Hidalgo’s sports adviser, says he has never seen her publicly display her feelings about the vitriol. “In the harsh world of politics, if you show weakness, people will exploit any chink in the armour,” he observes. “She is combative, a bit like a wrestler, and very determined to follow through on her ideas.”

The spotlight will now be on Hidalgo and Paris as it hosts an ambitious yet risky version of the Olympics. One risk will be the extravagant opening ceremony with athletes on an armada of boats, which a security expert called a “criminal folly” since it would be impossible to police.

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The French capital is also seeking to hold a more sustainable, affordable Olympics — in order to slash greenhouse gas emissions only two arenas have been built. Most events will be held at temporary venues at historic monuments in the city centre, causing major disruption for residents.

Hidalgo’s twin missions as mayor have been to give Paris a radical green makeover and keep the city accessible to middle and lower-income people by investing billions in social housing, often through buying properties and converting them.

Her dedication to the green cause has made her famous abroad where she is more respected at appearances at the UN and COP climate conferences than at home, where she is criticised for poor city management and degraded public finances.

Born near Cadiz, Spain to an electrician father and a seamstress mother, Hidalgo moved to Lyon as a child and became a French citizen as a teenager. Her first job was as a labour inspector for the government.

A convinced social democrat, she went into politics in the mid-1990s as an adviser to various ministers at a national level. In 2001, she was elected on a Socialist list to the Paris city council in the 15th arrondissement on the left bank, where she still lives. She was the longtime number two to her predecessor as socialist mayor Betrand Delanoë, and succeeded him in 2014.

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Attitudes towards her hardened among some Parisians in 2016 when she got rid of a highway running along the Seine and turned the quays into a leafy pedestrian zone now enjoyed by cyclists and people out for runs or strolls.

“She’s had very extreme policies against car drivers, and by extension, against people living in the banlieues,” said Pierre Chasseray of the pro-car lobbying group 40 millions d’automobilistes (40mn drivers).

The city has built 1,500km of bike lanes recently, hiked parking prices for SUVs, and banned cars from major arteries like the Rue de Rivoli, reserving them mostly for cyclists.

In City Hall, where she is in coalition with Greens and Communists, Hidalgo has a “reputation for being irascible”, says Green councillor Alexandre Florentin, who nevertheless says he admires her. She has bridled at any suggestion that she is not “the most green mayor the planet has ever seen”.

Environmental groups have criticised Hidalgo and the Olympic organisers for “greenwashing” with a claim to minimise waste while being sponsored by drinks company Coca-Cola, a major generator of plastic. Her fierce rival on the city council, the rightwing politician Rachida Dati, accused her of wasting public money in the so-called Tahiti Gate scandal last year when she took a week-long trip there only to scrap a visit to the competition site for Olympics surfing.

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Hidalgo, however, remains defiant. “If there weren’t the Games, we wouldn’t have gotten to this moment,” she said of swimming in the Seine. “They were an accelerator that directed all our energies towards an objective.” Whether Parisians like it or not.

leila.abboud@ft.com, sarah.white@ft.com, kenza.bryan@ft.com

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