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What if Trump Deported 11 Million Immigrants?

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What if Trump Deported 11 Million Immigrants?

When he was young, Diego Quiñones got so frustrated putting in long hours at his immigrant family’s business that he once kicked over a bucket in protest. He now concedes that his labors were worthwhile. During a tour of his family’s wooden pallet plant near Bentonville, Ark., he beamed with pride noting that business was booming.

Mr. Quiñones, along with his mother and siblings, moved to the United States from Mexico in 1997, two years after his father. Most of them entered illegally. His father is still undocumented. Like other immigrants, the family settled in a part of Arkansas where Walmart has its headquarters and the poultry business is strong. They joked that the pallets used by these local industries were as popular in Bentonville as tortillas were in Mexico — so they started manufacturing them. As the region has grown, their pallet business has too.

No one knows how many Arkansas immigrants, like members of Mr. Quiñones’s family, came here without documents. But former President Donald J. Trump’s party platform promises nationwide the “largest deportation effort in American history.” Some worry about what deportations would mean for Northwest Arkansas’s workers, and the businesses that rely on them.

Northwest Arkansas was last year ranked the 15th fastest-growing region in the country, and much of that population growth is driven by immigrant workers. According to the 1990 census, the region was 95 percent white. By 2021, that figure had fallen to nearly 71 percent. Springdale, where Tyson Foods is based, is now nearly 40 percent Hispanic.

Diego Quiñones at his family’s pallet business.

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Mr. Trump has offered few details on his plans for mass deportations, though JD Vance, his running mate, said during the vice-presidential debate that they would start with deporting roughly one million people who had crimes on their records other than entering the country illegally.

Immigration experts point out the many barriers to enacting Mr. Trump’s plan, including the sheer size of the population. There were 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the country in 2022. A mass deportation could cost some $88 billion a year over roughly 10 years, according to an estimate from the American Immigration Council, which is a nonprofit advocacy group. Congress would have to come up with the money to carry out one million arrests, including hiring at least 31,000 immigration agents, a researcher for the council said. The legal system is already backlogged: There are nearly four million cases winding their way through the courts, and cases often take two to six years.

Even with those logistical hurdles, the specter of mass deportations has stirred, for many, a sense of fear. Mr. Quiñones’s mother got permanent residency in 2021. He and his sister are part of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, program, which protects immigrants brought to America as young children from deportation.

“It’s a popular selling point to the base to say ‘I’m going to round up five million immigrants,’” said Mr. Quiñones, 35. “You want to cut out your labor source? It seems counterproductive.”

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The Asian Amigo Supermarket in Rogers, Ar.

The influx of immigrants into Northwest Arkansas has given rise to a thriving local ecosystem of businesses. Downtown Springdale is dotted with Mexican restaurants, and its school system is 45 percent Hispanic. The city celebrates an annual festival called ArkanSalsa Fest. Last year came the announcement that Arkansas is planning to welcome a professional soccer team, Ozark United FC, whose co-founder said that he saw opportunity because of the region’s population growth and large Hispanic community.

Many economists have taken up the question of how immigration affects the labor market. The answers that emerge are layered. Research shows that immigrants often create jobs by driving up demand for food, cars and services. When economists studied the effects of 400,000 deportations of unauthorized immigrants between 2008 and 2013, they found that for every 100 people removed from the labor market because of deportations, there were nine fewer jobs for U.S.-born workers.

Unauthorized immigrants also fill jobs that native-born workers depend upon but don’t want to do themselves, at least at the wages offered, in fields including child care, construction and agriculture. But other research shows that can have a negative effect on the wages of some U.S.-born workers, like high school dropouts.

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The short-term effects of a sudden, large-scale deportation can be jarring. After nearly 400 workers were arrested in the raid of a meatpacking plant in Iowa in 2008, the local economy suffered: The plant filed for bankruptcy and small businesses shut down.

People bike in downtown Bentonville, Ar. Northwest Arkansas is the 15th fastest-growing region in the country, and much of that population growth is driven by immigrant workers.

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Some business leaders in Arkansas are candid about the potential economic and labor force problems that could arise from mass deportations.

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“It would certainly cause disruption and angst,” said Nelson Peacock, who leads the Northwest Arkansas Council, which was created by major employers like Walmart and Tyson to promote economic development.

Seated in a Fayetteville, Ark., coffee shop, Mr. Peacock said his organization hoped to start a program helping regional employers secure legal services for their immigrant workers, especially those who can’t fill out English paperwork or afford legal fees.

Mr. Peacock has observed with alarm the tense national debates about the immigrant community in Springfield, Ohio, which Mr. Vance said has been “overwhelmed” by Haitian newcomers.

“We don’t have this thinking that people are being displaced,” Mr. Peacock said. “We, in fact, have 11,000 open jobs.”

In Northwest Arkansas, Mr. Peacock said, people tend to recognize how much the regional economy depends on its immigrant workers, though he doesn’t think that will stop people from supporting Mr. Trump.

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“I don’t know that it weighs into the way people vote,” he added.

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Video: Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

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Video: Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

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Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

Deep into the evacuation zone, volunteers are stepping in to evacuate L.A. residents from encroaching wildfires. Armed with radios, hoses and knowledge of the area, this brigade offers help to overextended fire departments as they try to reach people who have yet to flee.

“Top is Yankee.” “Victor’s your side. Yankee is the other side of Topanga, OK?” Community fire brigade volunteers are on the streets of Topanga, California. The Palisades fire was encroaching on this home, and Keegan Gibbs and his team were working to evacuate the owner. “OK, hi. So I gotta do this fast, so.” “I honestly just kind of want you to leave, because it’s getting bad.” “No we’re out of here in five minutes.” The brigade works to back up the fire department when resources are stretched thin. “L.A. County and the other supporting agencies are the best in the world at what they do. Events like this, it’s not enough.” The Palisades fire has now been burning for several days, and has destroyed tens of thousands of acres. “It makes no sense for somebody to try to stay here. It’s so unbelievably dangerous.” “I walked kind of with Keegan a little bit. We were going to stay, probably going to stay for a little while, but we walked the property and it’s just almost like, I just don’t think it’s safe. Can you just open that? I’m want to throw some more stuff in here, and then we’ll be good. Just going to put pictures, important memorabilia.” “There’s a huge denial that people won’t be affected by fire, and we have to be advocates for people to realize and accept that risk.” With firefighters still unable to contain two of the region’s largest fires, more L.A. residents are expected to join the tens of thousands who have already been forced to evacuate. “Our mission is to make sure people are safe, just full stop.”

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Malaysia expects surge of Chinese investment, economy minister says

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Malaysia expects surge of Chinese investment, economy minister says

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Chinese chipmakers and technology companies are heading to Malaysia in droves, its economy minister Rafizi Ramli said, as Beijing prepares to face more tariffs when Donald Trump returns as US president this month.

The moves by Chinese companies, which are expected to result in billions of dollars of investment in Malaysia in the coming years, would rival the US companies that have dominated the country’s market, he said.

“Chinese [companies] are very keen to go outside and expand beyond their domestic market,” Rafizi told the Financial Times in an interview. “Those companies are now looking at relocating or expanding into Malaysia.”

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Trump has threatened to impose 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports when he re-enters the White House on January 20, rattling investors and putting companies on alert to restructure their supply chains.

Malaysia has been a big beneficiary over the past decade of such “China-plus-one” strategies, where multinational companies complement their Chinese operations with investments in regional countries to diversify risk and lower costs.

It has also positioned itself as a crucial player in global supply chains for high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence, with long-standing semiconductor manufacturing operations in Penang in the north and a burgeoning hub for data centres in the southern state of Johor.

US companies have dominated these sectors in Malaysia, but Rafizi said he expected a wave of Chinese investment on the back of initiatives his government was putting in place to develop the industries further.

Joe Biden’s administration has restricted sales of advanced chips by US companies to China, posing a potential threat to their investments in Malaysia, where many of the products are manufactured, and opening the door for Chinese competitors.

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Rafizi said he made a 10-day trip in June to China, where he met 100 AI, tech and biomedical companies to assess their appetite for investing in Malaysia. He added that these efforts had resulted in two investment delegations from China in the past few months.

“Chinese investments usually come with their own ecosystem,” he said. “We will be seeing more and more, especially if we can secure the first two or three anchor investors from China.”

He added that many companies were also seeking to increase exposure to the fast-growing south-east Asian market as China’s economic momentum slows and trade with the US faces additional barriers.

This week, Malaysia signed an agreement with Singapore to create a vast special economic zone between the two countries. Malaysia hopes the initiative will add $26bn a year to its economy by 2030, bringing in 20,000 skilled jobs and 50 new projects.

Between 2019 and 2023, Malaysia attracted $21bn of investment into its semiconductor industry and $10bn into data centres — the storage facilities that enable fast-growing technologies such as AI, cloud computing and cryptocurrency mining. In the past year alone, US tech companies Amazon, Nvidia, Google and Microsoft committed nearly $16bn, mostly for data centres in Johor.

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TikTok owner ByteDance is the largest Chinese group to invest in Johor, with a $2bn commitment last year.

Rafizi said that while historically, Malaysia had been happy to accept any foreign investment, it was becoming more selective as it sought to contribute more value to the products and services it produced.

He added that while increasing US-China tensions would harm global trade, it could prompt Chinese companies to give Malaysia a bigger role in chip design, rather than just manufacturing, which would generate more income as the country climbed the value chain.

“The unintended consequence of some tariff measures targeted at Chinese companies basically helps countries like Malaysia to weed out the more genuine and long-term investments from China compared to the ones that just look to use Malaysia as a manufacturing outpost,” he said.

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USDA report finds Boar's Head listeria outbreak was due to poor sanitation practices

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USDA report finds Boar's Head listeria outbreak was due to poor sanitation practices

Boar’s Head meats are displayed at a Safeway store on July 31, 2024 in San Rafael, Calif. The USDA released a new report on what led to the listeria outbreak.

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A U.S. Department of Agriculture report has found that “inadequate sanitation practices” at a Boar’s Head facility in Virginia contributed to a listeria outbreak that left 10 people dead and dozens hospitalized around the country last year.

The report, released Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), reviewed the listeria outbreak linked to the deli meat supplier’s facility in Jarratt, Va.

In one case, inspectors said they found “meat and fat residue from the previous day’s production on the equipment, including packaging equipment.” Other instances included dripping condensation “on exposed product” and “cracks, holes and broken flooring that could hold moisture and contribute to wet conditions.” 

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The outbreak lasted from July through November 2024, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. With cases reported in over 19 states, it was the largest outbreak of the foodborne bacterial illness since 2011.

In an email to NPR, a spokesperson for Boar’s Head said: “We continue to actively cooperate with the USDA and government regulatory agencies on matters related to last year’s recall, and we thank them for their oversight.”

In addition, the spokesperson said the company is working to implement enhanced food safety programs, “including stronger food safety control procedures and more rigorous testing at our meat and poultry production facilities.”

Boar’s Head recalled its ready-to-eat liverwurst products linked to the outbreak in July. The recall later expanded to dozens of products, including sliced hams and sausages, all of which were manufactured at the Virginia plant.

USDA inspection reports show sanitation violations were routine and not isolated at the plant, NPR previously reported. The reports found dead bugs, dripping ceilings, mildew and black mold near machines at the plant.

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In September, Boar’s Head permanently closed its Jarratt plant and the company announced it would discontinue making any liverwurst products.

Friday’s report also included a review of FSIS’s own practices and procedures to prevent the spread of listeria, including ways to enhance its regulatory and sampling approach to the illness. The report cited “equipping FSIS inspectors with updated training and tools to recognize and respond to systemic food safety issues” as one of the steps the agency would take to protect the public from listeria.

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