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Vladimir Putin has apologised to Azerbaijan for what he described as a “tragic incident” involving an Azerbaijani aircraft in Russian airspace on Christmas Day.

Moscow phoned Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev and the Russian president expressed “deep and sincere condolences” to the families of those affected, the Kremlin’s press office said on Saturday. 

The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 plane was flying from Baku to Grozny on Christmas Day when it diverted across the Caspian Sea and crash-landed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people on board.

Senior US and Ukrainian officials blamed Russian anti-aircraft fire for the crash.

Although the Kremlin’s statement on Saturday did not explicitly confirm that Russian air defence systems were responsible, it did not deny the allegation. 

The aircraft “repeatedly attempted to land at Grozny airport” while Ukrainian combat drones were attacking nearby cities and Russian air defences were “responding to these attacks”, according to the Kremlin.

“Vladimir Putin apologised for the tragic incident that occurred in Russian airspace”, the statement said.

A Russian investigative committee has opened a criminal investigation into alleged violations of aviation safety regulations, with “civilian and military specialists being questioned”, the statement added. 

Azerbaijani, Kazakh and Russian officials are already conducting an official investigation, led by Baku.

Putin’s carefully worded acknowledgment sharply contrasts with Moscow’s repeated denial of responsibility for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which investigators attributed to a surface-to-air missile fired from territory held by Moscow-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine. A court in the Netherlands has found three men with links to the Russian military guilty of murder for their roles in the incident.

Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center, a Yerevan-based think-tank, said the Kremlin’s statement “was both unexpected and out of character” for Putin.

He said the move “reveals the overall weakness of Russia’s position” as Moscow pursues its war in Ukraine. Putin clearly “values his relationship with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s patron state, over all else”, he added.

Andrey Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based political scientist, said that as a result of the plane crash, “Azerbaijani society has overnight become anti-Russian”.

Russia’s main aviation authority had initially suggested that the Kazakhstan crash was caused by a bird strike to the plane’s engine. Azerbaijan’s president said he had been told the plane had been diverted due to poor weather conditions.

On Friday John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesperson, said there were “early indications” that the plane had been hit by Russian air defences. Rashad Nabiyev, Azerbaijan’s transport minister, said on the same day that the crash had been caused by a weapon impact.

Survivors, including passengers and crew, have described explosions outside the plane as it flew over Grozny.

On Thursday, the head of Russia’s main aviation authority Dmitry Yadrov admitted that air conditions around Grozny had been “very difficult” due to attacks from Ukrainian combat drones.

In response to the catastrophe, five airlines have suspended some flights to Russia.

Turkmenistan Airlines suspended its route from Ashgabat to Moscow while Azerbaijan Airlines, Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Air and the UAE’s Flydubai all suspended routes to southern Russia. Israel’s El Al has suspended its Tel Aviv to Moscow route.

Additional reporting by Robert Wright in London

Severe weather conditions across the U.S. could disrupt holiday travel this weekend, as millions of people set out to reach their destinations or return home. The National Weather Service is forecasting tornadoes and thunderstorms, heavy rain, and wind in many regions.

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes is possible Saturday in parts of East Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and central Gulf Coast states. Baton Rouge and Shreveport, La.; Mobile and Tuscaloosa, Ala.; and Jackson, Miss., are among cities under serious threat. Flash flooding, tropical storm strength wind gusts, and up to two-inch sized hail are possible in some places.

National Weather Service meteorologist Frank Pereira says long-range tornadoes could strike some communities from the Texas-Louisiana border, northern and central Louisiana, and into parts of Mississippi.

“They could stay on the ground for quite a while and they could be very strong tornadoes, EF3, which is really significant,” he said. “Once they touch down, they remain on the ground, and can do damage over quite a length, quite a distance.”

The potential for dangerous storms and twisters comes as many are traveling for the holidays. Auto club AAA projects a record 119 million people are traveling through New Year’s Day. Nearly 107 million are traveling the nation’s highways. About 8 million are estimated to be flying, many through the nation’s busiest airline hubs.

More than 3,000 U.S. flights were delayed as of Saturday morning, according to FlightAware.com.

For parts of western Oregon and northern California, heavy rain and strong winds are in the forecast this weekend, with the worst conditions Saturday. Pereira says the atmospheric river is likely to return to the region and could cause flash flooding and other headaches.

“By the time we get into Monday, Tuesday, things should start to taper off. We could see an uptick later in the week, Tuesday, Wednesday, but currently that round doesn’t look as heavy as what is currently ongoing,” he said.

Meanwhile, it’s not likely to be a white New Year. Outside of higher elevations in the West, forecasters are not calling for snow. Instead, well-above normal temperatures are expected in much of the country in the coming days.

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

(portmanteau noun) the backlash against environmental policies. Not to be confused with greenwashing, green hushing or green wishing

It seems it was only yesterday that green policies were on the march. If it wasn’t the US passing the biggest climate law in the country’s history, it was the EU legislating for the world’s first major carbon border tax or the UK pledging to end sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. 

Green progress was especially notable in Europe. By 2022, the EU’s renewable power generation had boomed so much that solar and wind overtook gas for the first time. EU emissions plunged 8 per cent in 2023, the steepest annual fall in decades outside of 2020.

But as climate promises were becoming a reality, inflation was spurring cost of living anxieties. Net zero-sceptic populist parties seized on these to denounce green policies as a costly elitist plot against working people. 

As 2023 turned into 2024, the green march began to stumble. Companies backed away from green targets. Germany watered down a contentious heat pump law that had helped to push the far-right AFD party’s poll numbers above 20 per cent. Brussels scrapped a plan to halve pesticide use. Green parties were hammered in June’s European parliament elections.  

In the UK, the former Conservative government pushed back the ban on new petrol and diesel cars to 2035. 

Yet the Conservatives still suffered a crushing election loss to the Labour party, which pledged to restore the 2030 target and is still committed to an ambitious decarbonisation agenda. 

That’s a reminder that the greenlash has limits, as does China’s remorseless charge towards green energy supremacy. But with an incoming Trump administration expected to reverse climate policies, and populism showing no sign of easing in Europe, it is clear that fraught green politics are by no means at an end.

pilita.clark@ft.com