For Europe’s nationalists and populists, the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House feels like the arrival of the US cavalry over the horizon.
Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, has been accused of undermining his country’s democracy by the European Commission and the Biden administration. He hailed Trump’s victory as a sign that: “History has accelerated . . . The world is going to change.” In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders, the leader of the Freedom party, rejoiced that: “Patriots are winning elections all over the world.” In Russia, Alexander Dugin, a pro-Putin ideologue exulted that: “We have won . . . Globalists have lost their final combat.”
Political parties that broadly welcome Trump’s victory are already in powerful positions across Europe. In Austria and the Netherlands, nationalist populists won the largest share of the vote in recent elections. The Alternative for Germany is second in the polls, with a general election looming. In France, the Rassemblement National is getting nearer to national power. Reform in Britain, Law and Justice in Poland and Vox in Spain will all feel empowered by Trump’s victory.
There are strong ideological affinities between Trump’s Maga movement and the European populists. They are all anti-migration, anti-woke and anti-“globalist”. They are also often sympathetic to Russia and fiercely supportive of Israel. And they are frequently attracted to the same conspiracy theories — about vaccinations or George Soros or the “great replacement” of indigenous populations by brown migrants.
If the Trump administration proceeds with its plan for the mass deportation of illegal migrants, there will be loud demands for similar measures in Europe. Herbert Kickl, the leader of the Austrian Freedom party, has spoken in favour of “remigration”, even for Austrian citizens, if they fail to respect the country’s values.
Hostility to “woke” ideas is another common theme. Some of the Trump campaign’s most effective ads targeted the transgender issue. (“Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.”) Orbán long ago shut down gender studies in Hungarian universities. Last year, Vladimir Putin signed a law banning gender changes in Russia.
The belief that Putin is a strong leader and a defender of traditional values means that many on the populist right have sympathy for the Russian president. Orbán praised Trump’s victory as an advance for those advocating peace in Europe. But the demand for an end to the war in Ukraine often shades into outright admiration for Putin and hostility to Kyiv. Media host Tucker Carlson, now an influential adviser to Trump, has conducted sympathetic interviews with both Putin and Orbán.
For the European far right, hostility to Muslims now easily surpasses their more traditional hostility to Jews. Wilders calls Israel the west’s “first line of defence”. After attacks against Israeli football supporters in Amsterdam last week, he called the assailants “multicultural scum”.
Support for Israel is surprisingly easy to combine with antisemitism. The ethno-nationalism of Netanyahu’s Israel is very much in tune with Orbán’s thinking. But the latter also used antisemitic tropes in his campaign against Soros — a “globalist” Jew who supports minority rights. Trump gives full-throated support for Israel yet flirts with antisemites such as Nick Fuentes.
But while there are many common themes that will unite the Trump administration with populist nationalist forces in Europe, the alliance could prove quite fragile.
Trump’s “America first” nationalism is likely to clash fairly quickly with the populist agenda in Europe. Catherine Fieschi, an expert on European populism, points out that Trump’s demands that Europe should open its doors to US agricultural products — such as hormone-fed beef or chlorine-washed chicken — will go down very badly with farmers there. It will also play into the strong streak of anti-Americanism that has always characterised the far right in both France and Germany. If Trump goes ahead with threatened 10-20 per cent tariffs on all imports, the whole of Europe will be hit.
Trump’s desire to force a peace deal on Ukraine could alienate some European populists. Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, leads a party with its roots in the far right and is in sympathy with Trump’s “war on woke”. But she is also a strong supporter of Ukraine.
Even Orbán could run into difficulties. He is simultaneously wooing Trump and positioning himself as China’s best friend inside the EU. He recently hosted Xi Jinping in Budapest. Sooner or later, the Trump White House will notice this inconsistency. Nonetheless, it is a remarkable achievement for Hungary’s leader to have won such high status in the Trump movement.
Orbán believes history is now on his side. However, Hungary does not have a good record of allying itself with history’s winners. When the country joined the EU, a gloomy Budapest academic told me that the European project was doomed. “Everything we join eventually collapses,” he lamented — pointing to the Austro-Hungarian empire, the Axis alliance in the second world war and the Soviet bloc. Perhaps the curse of Budapest will eventually come for Trump as well.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
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