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Trump vs Biden: who is winning with six months to go?

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Trump vs Biden: who is winning with six months to go?

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Donald Trump has a small polling lead over Joe Biden in the critical swing states with six months to go before US voters elect their next president on November 5.

It marks a stunning reversal for Trump, who exited the White House in 2021 with a record-low approval rating of 29 per cent after a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6 in a bid to overturn his electoral loss.

More registered voters now view Biden’s presidency to be a failure compared with Trump’s, according to a recent CNN poll — 55 per cent of US respondents said Trump’s presidency was a success compared with 39 per cent for Biden.

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Biden’s approval rating has dropped by 19 percentage points since the start of his presidency, to 35 per cent in April, according to Pew Research.

Still, the 2024 election looks to be an exceptionally close rematch of the 2020 race, when just 43,000 votes out of 155mn cast delivered victory for Biden. 

With six months to go, here is where the race stands.

What are the polls saying right now?

National polling has been tight. Trump and Biden are both polling just above 40 per cent, with Trump currently holding a slender edge of 0.8 percentage points, well within bounds of statistical error, according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages. The independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr has been polling at about 10 per cent, though support for such candidates tends to be higher in pre-election polling than in actual elections.

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But US presidential elections are not decided by a national vote. Rather they are decided by winner-takes-all contests in the 50 states, which send electors to the Electoral College. Whichever candidate secures 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes president.

In seven crucial “swing states” — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump leads Biden by between one and six points.

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What are the issues that will decide the election — and who’s leading on them?

The top priority for US voters remains the economy — an issue that has boosted Trump against Biden. 

Overall, 41 per cent of voters trust Trump with the economy, compared with just 35 per cent for Biden, according to the latest Financial Times poll conducted with the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.

A recent CNN poll found that 65 per cent of registered voters called the economy “extremely” important to their vote — higher than any other issue — and near levels not seen since October 2008.

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While inflation has certainly hurt Biden, political views of the economy also play a role. Of those who said the economy was “poor”, 41 per cent said a change in political leadership in Washington would improve their perception of the economy, while 37 per cent said lower inflation and 14 per cent said better personal finances.

Other top issues include immigration — where polling suggests voters believe Trump is more competent than Biden — and protecting democracy, preserving abortion rights and lowering healthcare costs. Biden is stronger on the last three.

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Most Americans do not vote based on foreign policy. But voters have consistently said they think the US is spending too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to monthly FT-Michigan Ross polling. This could help Trump.

Though Trump has not said that he will cut funding for either country, the former president has made clear that he expects other countries in Europe to step up their defence spending when it comes to countering Russia. Republicans have also stalled congressional efforts to approve aid to the two countries — only relenting in mid-April after months of deadlock.

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Perhaps even more important than the issues is how voters view Biden and Trump as people. 

A majority of voters say Trump, 77, is more physically and mentally fit than Biden, 81, but are less confident that Trump will act ethically in office. According to an April poll by Pew Research, 62 per cent of registered voters said they were not confident Biden is mentally up to the job, compared with 59 per cent who said they were not confident that Trump would act ethically.

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Trump is facing four criminal indictments, including federal and state charges that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election. A majority of independent Americans believe Trump is guilty in the four cases, according to a Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll. And 24 per cent of registered voters who support Trump say that if the former president is convicted, they might reconsider, according to a CNN poll.

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Who’s got more money and where is it being spent?

Biden has massively outraised Trump in the money race, leaving Biden groups with $66mn more on hand than Trump groups by the end of March.

Trump’s coffers have been drained by his legal fees. His donors have paid $76mn on Trump’s lawyers since January 2023 — 26 per cent of the total raised for the ex-president.

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Biden’s campaign has already spent more than $39mn on ads this year, according to AdImpact, compared with $25mn for Trump. But much of Trump’s ad spend went towards the presidential primary, as he fought off well-funded Republican challengers, including Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

Future Forward Pac, a pro-Biden super Pac that can raise unlimited sums, has already booked $130mn in ads beginning in September, targeting the seven swing states and Nebraska’s one electoral vote in Omaha.

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In the United States, Every World Cup Team Is a Home Team

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In the United States, Every World Cup Team Is a Home Team

It’s a tiny restaurant in the Little Morocco neighborhood of Queens. But throughout this World Cup, it has swelled with pride, song and beating drums as the Moroccan national team has pushed its way deep into soccer’s biggest international tournament.

It’s a scene that has been echoed across the United States — in a multitude of languages and colors, as soccer fans from all over the world, many now making their homes in America, have packed bars, restaurants, living rooms and concert venues.

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No matter where they came from or where they gathered, they all sought the same experience: a chance to watch their nations compete while surrounded by others who share passion and pride for the country they or their ancestors once called home.

Together, these fans have brought places throughout the United States to life.

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Bosnia vs Qatar

Bosnians Rejoice in St. Louis, Mo.

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Thousands of Bosnians settled in the St. Louis area during the 1990s, as war and genocide ripped their communities apart. The city is now home to more than 60,000 Bosnians, scores of whom gathered at Bevo Caffe Lounge on June 24 to watch Bosnia and Herzegovina play.

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This is only the second time the team has qualified for the World Cup — and the first time it has reached the knockout round. Its reward: Meeting one of the hosts, the United States, on Wednesday in Santa Clara, Calif.

Haiti vs Brazil

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In Miami, Little Haiti Comes to Life

More than 100,000 residents of Miami-Dade County, Fla., are of Haitian descent, and the Little Haiti neighborhood of Miami has long been their central hub.

During the World Cup, fans of Haiti’s team have flocked to the neighborhood, packing restaurants, bars and even parking lots to watch the action. Many have come wearing jerseys, while others simply dressed in the red and blue of the Haitian flag.

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Haiti ended up in a tough group, losing all of its matches, including a 3-0 defeat to Brazil on June 19. But for some fans, the fact that the team had qualified at all was its one victory. Before this year, Haiti had played in only one other World Cup, in 1974.

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Morocco

Moroccan Joy in Queens, N.Y.

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Touria Lamtahaf worked as a chef four years ago at a restaurant in Astoria, Queens, in the heart of an enclave on Steinway Avenue known as Little Morocco.

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After the Moroccan team upset Portugal in a World Cup quarterfinal, Ms. Lamtahaf remembers hundreds of Morocco fans surging onto Steinway Avenue, setting off flares and red smoke bombs to celebrate.

“It was a good memory for all of us,” she said. “We were very proud. You just needed something to be happy. After Covid, this was amazing.”

The neighborhood has long been a hub for immigrant communities from North African countries, including Egypt, and is also home to a large Greek community.

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Many settled in Astoria decades ago, drawn by low rents and a neighborhood that could feel calm compared with other bustling parts of New York. Ms. Lamtahaf, who moved to the United States in 2007, said that she originally lived in Ridgewood neighborhood of Queens, but word of mouth led her to Astoria, where she now runs her own restaurant.

The restaurant, Dar Lbahja, is just a few blocks from where she used to work. Ms. Lamtahaf said that when she opened it just over a year ago, she wanted to create a space where people could not just eat, but also gather to watch soccer, like she did growing up with her father in Morocco.

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“It was only one TV, and we had to watch with him,” Ms. Lamtahaf said. “So we grew up with the soccer.”

During this tournament, Morocco fans have packed into Dar Lbahja on game days, with many in Morocco’s red jersey, and others in the team’s white kit. They were rewarded with a berth in the knockout stages, and then again on Monday when their team won a tense matchup with the Netherlands in a penalty shootout.

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Fans took to the streets in jubilant celebration, just as they did in 2022.

Kacem Ettahali, 19, of Houston, is spending the summer in New York for an internship and watched the first Morocco game of the tournament on June 13 at the restaurant.

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After the team scored, Mr. Ettahali received a flurry of texts from his friends. “When they think of Morocco, they think of me,” he said.

He wasn’t the only Texan in the joint. Jori and Ahmed Lamghari traveled from the Dallas area because Ms. Lamghari, 43, wanted her husband to experience the city during the tournament. “I wanted him to get the New York World Cup vibe,” she said.

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Mr. Lamghari, 33, said that “Moroccans make their own ambience,” adding, “We want to live it.”

France vs Norway

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In Chicago, Hope for Another French Title

The French love a good outdoor drinking venue. For the country’s June 26 match against the rowing Norwegians, fans gathered on the outdoor patio of Soccer House in Chicago, a city whose deep French roots stretch back to the colonial days.

France is widely considered a tournament favorite, potentially giving its fans several more opportunities to celebrate.

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Argentina vs Austria

In Provo, Utah, Messi Mania Is a Family Affair

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Sporting the colors is intergenerational in Provo, Utah. Luis and Lidia Peve moved there 25 years ago, following a son who emigrated first, and decorated their home with small Argentina flags ahead of the team’s match against Austria on June 22.

As game time approached, about a dozen members of the family painted their faces with the sky blue and white of Argentina’s flag. Together, they sat around the TV with their eyes trained particularly on Lionel Messi, the team’s star, who is likely playing in his last World Cup.

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He finished the game with three goals — a hat trick — and a new generation of fans in the Peve household.

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D.R. Congo vs Colombia

In Silver Spring, Md., a Happy Return to the World Cup

Congolese fans in Silver Spring, Md., belted out their national anthem in a veterans hall, hands over their hearts, ahead of the country’s match against Colombia on June 23.

Refugee aid programs have resettled many Congolese families in the suburbs north of the nation’s capital, as their nation has been rived by war, unrest and now an Ebola outbreak.

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The Congolese side lost its match to Colombia on that day. But the team managed to advance out of the group stage for the first time in its history. Before this World Cup, the country had been to the tournament only once, in 1974, when it lost all of its matches.

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Portugal

A Block Party of Red and Green in Rhode Island

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The go-to drink special last weekend in East Providence, R.I., was a vodka cocktail called the CR7. And you’d be hard-pressed to find a resident of the region who didn’t know it was in honor of Cristiano Ronaldo, the 41-year-old Portuguese striker who is playing in his sixth — and likely last — World Cup, wearing his famous No. 7.

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The drink was served at the Portuguese restaurant O Dinis, a neighborhood staple. A large number of Portuguese immigrants settled in this corner of Rhode Island and nearby Massachusetts during the Industrial Revolution, finding work in the textile, whaling and manufacturing industries.

“Life is beautiful in Portugal,” said Natalia Paiva-Neves, who moved to the United States when she was 16 and now runs O Dinis, which was founded by her father. “But at the time, there was a lot of poverty, because there were no jobs, and there was no tourism. There was none of that stuff going on, so you had to find a means to provide for your family.”

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After pre-gaming over CR7s, along with beer, wine, meats and shrimp, some fans walked from O Dinis to a watch party that stretched for two blocks, from a screen in the parking lot of nearby Cafe Alma to Campino’s, another Portuguese restaurant.

“It’s just a great feeling,” said Kevin Matos, the cafe’s owner. “Everybody’s enjoying themselves. It doesn’t matter the result on the screen.”

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Some fans might not have agreed, though a scoreless draw sent both teams through to the knockout stage.

The block party, with hundreds of fans lining the streets, was in part the brainchild of East Providence’s mayor, Roberto DaSilva. “We had no idea that it’d be this many people showing up,” he said. “We thought we got a good crowd, but this is much more than than I ever expected.”

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Some had to stand on their tiptoes see the screens. Others packed into shops to sit down and watch the game, while others pulled out their phones as they stood in line to buy beer and snacks from food trucks and vendors.

Mexico vs South Korea

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A Backyard Party in a Texas Border Town

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Roughly four out of five residents in the Texas border town of Weslaco are of Mexican descent, making the country’s June 18 match in Guadalajara feel like a home game.

For a youth soccer team, it was a chance to watch their heroes take another step toward the knockout rounds.

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Under the night sky, they watched anxiously, breaking into dance after Mexico won.

Uruguay vs Spain

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Elimination Brings Anguish to Uruguay Fans in Miami

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Uruguay needed this one. The nation that hosted the first World Cup in 1930, winning the tournament that year and again in 1950, was on the brink of elimination last week against Spain — considered one of the strongest teams in the tournament.

Fans at Doña Paulina, a Uruguayan restaurant in Miami, anxiously watched their team fight for a chance to stay in the competition.

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It wasn’t to be. Spain emerged victorious, 1-0.

Japan vs Tunisia

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In San Diego, Fans Cheer the Samurai Blue

Their team is called the Samurai Blue, and the many Japanese fans living in Southern California — a diaspora that first settled there in the late 19th century as farmers and fishermen, and endured harsh incarceration during World War II — made their blue kits prominent as the team played its way through a so-called group of death.

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They eventually earned a second-place finish to reach the round of 32. The result was a Monday matchup with Brazil, in which Japan fell 2-1.

Iran

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In Los Angeles, Mixed Feelings About the Iranian Team

For Americans from Iran, supporting the Iranian national team has been a thorny issue.

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Some have refused to even watch the matches. To them, the team feels like an extension of the government, whose persecution drove many to flee the country. It’s especially difficult as their new home, the United States, and their old home are at war.

“That’s a little conflict for me,” said Roozbeh Farahanipour, who helped lead an Iranian student uprising in 1999 and fled the country the following year, seeking political asylum in America. “I am a little different from other fans, because no way I can cheer or stand for either Islamic Republic of Iran’s national anthem, nor for the flags.”

He added, “I am American now. My flag is the U.S. flag.”

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Others of Iranian descent have eagerly backed the national team and bristled at its travails, especially in Southern California, which was host to the team’s first match and is home to the largest diaspora of Iranians outside Iran. Many live, shop and eat in the Westwood area of Los Angeles, where an enclave has become known as Tehrangeles, after the Iranian capital.

Still, compared with those of other diasporas, gatherings to back the Iranian team have seemed smaller and more muted. Only a handful of fans gathered at Attari Sandwich Shop, a Persian eatery in the heart of Tehrangeles, during Iran’s June 21 match against Belgium at SoFi Stadium in nearby Inglewood, Calif.

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Inside the restaurant, some fans anxiously watched the game over kebab plates and pastries. Others outside proudly waved their flags on the neighborhood thoroughfare, Westwood Boulevard.

Bijan Bahmani, who lives in Los Angeles, took his 2-year-old son to Iran’s match against New Zealand on June 15 in Inglewood with his father-in-law. While he opposes the Iranian regime and hopes for democracy one day, Mr. Bahmani said he still wanted to cheer to the national team.

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“It’s complicated, because we have feelings a lot of different ways, with the complicated politics,” said Mr. Bahmani, 41, who moved to the United States in 2001. “I am definitely rooting for Iran because they represent Iran, not the government.”

Even as he took in the game with this family, Mr. Bahmani said the war was on his mind.

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“I hope this peace lasts,” he said, referring to the current fragile cease-fire. “Every day, we’re worried.”

Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia

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Celebrating the Small but Mighty in New Bedford, Mass.

Every tournament has a surprise underdog. This year, it’s Cape Verde, a small island nation off the western coast of Africa. Its team had an opportunity on Friday to become the smallest country by population ever to advance to a World Cup knockout round.

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The pivotal match drew people of Cape Verdean descent to a veterans hall in New Bedford, Mass., about an hour drive south of Boston. Like Portugal and Brazil, whaling and related industries brought a sizable population of immigrants from Cape Verde to southeastern New England.

A scoreless tie with Saudi Arabia was all it took for tears and roars to erupt in the veterans hall. Their team would keep playing, for at least one more game.

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Brazil vs Haiti

A Brazilian Dance Party Near Boston

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Massachusetts has a long history of Portuguese-speaking settlers, making Brazilians feel welcome in the Boston area. That’s especially the case in the southwest suburb of Framingham, Mass., where the Brazilian-born population rivals that of Boston.

They packed into Tropical Cafe, a Brazilian restaurant in Framingham, gathering around hightop tables as their team played Haiti on June 19. After Brazil secured a 3-0 win, fans made the restaurant an impromptu dance club to celebrate.

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Germany vs Curaçao

In Texas, German Fans Root, and Eat, to Honor a Neighbor

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Bratwurst and steins of beer accompanied the match at Bavarian Grill in Plano, Texas, a Dallas suburb, as Germany played Curaçao in Houston on June 14. But perhaps the city’s most important fan of the German team was not there.

Jürgen Mahneke, who was born in Braunschweig, Germany, immigrated to the United States in 1984, and worked in hotels across the country before settling in Plano.

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He opened the restaurant in 1993, and died at age 67 on June 10, a day before the World Cup began.

His restaurant went on with the planned festivities. One of the managers said Mr. Mahneke would have wanted them to. His team won its opener, 7-1, but went home on Monday, falling to Paraguay in a heartbreaking penalty shootout — the opposite of Morocco’s elating win hours later.

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What the Supreme Court did on the final day of its term

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What the Supreme Court did on the final day of its term

The U.S. Supreme Court

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The Supreme Court Tuesday upheld the long-established right of children born on U.S. soil to automatic American citizenship, regardless of their parents’ immigration status. In so doing, the court rejected President Trump’s most aggressive attempt to limit immigration in the United States.

Writing for the court majority, Chief Justice John Roberts traced birthright citizenship back to the founding of the nation. Just as the colonists demanded “the rights of Englishmen” more than 250 years ago, he said, Congress, after the Civil War, amended the Constitution to specify automatic citizenship for any child born on U.S. soil.

“Citizenship then and now was the right to have rights”—and the framers of the 14th amendment extended that promise to every free born person in this land. He concluded: “We keep that promise today.”

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The vote was 6-to-3, depending on how you count it. Altogether, five justices signed on to the Roberts’ majority opinion. A sixth, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, agreed only that federal legislation enacted in the 1950s grants automatic citizenship for children born in the U.S.

Justice Clarence Thomas wrote the lead dissent, a 91-page opus that agreed with Trump’s assertion that the 14th amendment only applied to former slaves and their descendants. The Thomas dissent added ominously that he “was not sure that “today’s opinion will stand the test of time.” The dissent was joined by Justice Neil Gorsuch, with Justice Samuel Alito writing a separate dissent.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who, like Thomas is African American, responded to some of the themes in the Thomas dissent.

“Despite his longstanding endorsement of a colorblind society,” she wrote, “Justice Thomas now surprisingly suggests that the citizenship clause was a race-conscious remedial measure relating only to freed slaves.”

Cecillia Wang, legal director of the ACLU, who successfully argued the case at the Supreme Court, said President’s Trump failed attempt to limit birthright citizenship was transparent.

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Rep. Tom Kean returns to Congress, says depression is why he went missing for months

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Rep. Tom Kean returns to Congress, says depression is why he went missing for months

Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., R-N.J., arrives at the U.S. Capitol with his wife Rhonda Kean on June 30.

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New Jersey Republican Thomas Kean Jr. said it was struggles with depression that kept him away from Congress for nearly four months with no explanation to his constituents.

Kean last voted on March 5th, missing numerous votes and other appearances on Capitol Hill since. In April, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters he had spoken to Kean and that he was dealing with an undisclosed medical issue. Kean was not spotted until recently at his New Jersey home.

Speaking from the House floor on Tuesday, the second term lawmaker said he had checked into a hospital for testing several months ago after health concerns, and was subsequently diagnosed with depression.

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“Talking about myself has never come naturally,” Kean said. “But I believe that I owe an explanation to the people of New Jersey’s seventh district, to my colleagues in this chamber and to the American people for my absence.”

Kean said he originally did not think his diagnosis would result in a long-term absence. Doctors recommended he remain in the hospital to address the illness, and it was his fastest route to recovery, he said.

“It is physical. It is emotional,” he said. “And until you experience it yourself, it is difficult to fully understand how powerful this illness could be.”

Kean said he miscalculated how long he would be away, estimating it would be a matter of weeks. However, he said like the roughly 48 million Americans who have battled the illness, he learned there is no timeline for recovery.

“I am grateful that I accepted help,” Kean said. “Today I stand before you healthier, stronger and excited to return to the work that I love.”

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Kean’s absence proved a struggle for House Republicans, who contend with a razor thin majority to pass party priorities. For weeks, Kean and his office declined to share additional details on why he was away, feeding rumors and speculation and raising interest in a member known for his privacy.

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