NEW YORK (AP) — After a trio of new announcements this week, the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential field is all but set.
A handful of stragglers may jump in later, but as of now there are at least 10 high-profile Republican candidates officially seeking their party’s nomination. And with the announcement phase of the primary campaign largely over, several leading Republican contenders will gather in North Carolina this weekend to begin a more aggressive sorting period.
It will be a long road to the GOP’s national convention in Milwaukee next summer when Republican delegates across the country gather to finalize their nominee to run against President Joe Biden. Surprises are guaranteed. Fortunes will change. But as of now, every Republican White House hopeful is looking up at former President Donald Trump, who is the undisputed frontrunner in the crowded contest.
Here are some takeaways on where the Republican contest stands:
IT’S A LARGE FIELD AFTER ALL
Advertisement
Trump launched his campaign nearly seven months ago in an effort to scare off potential challengers. It didn’t work.
As of now, the former president is running in a field that features no fewer than nine high-profile challengers. They include Mike Pence, a former vice president; four current or former governors: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson; Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the United Nations and also a former South Carolina governor; U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina; biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; and conservative talk show host Larry Elder, an unsuccessful candidate for California governor.
While big, the 2024 field could have been much bigger. The party’s 2016 class featured 17 candidates that filled two debate stages.
Several Republicans who had taken steps to prepare for a run in 2024 ultimately bowed out. They include former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton.
Meanwhile, a handful of higher-profile Republicans are still considering a run, including former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
Advertisement
IT’S TRUMP AND EVERYONE ELSE
Make no mistake: This is Trump’s race to lose.
The former president is dominating early primary polls, despite his extraordinary legal troubles, his continued lies about the 2020 election that fueled the Jan. 6 insurrection, and serious concerns among GOP officials about his ability to win the general election. Trump nonetheless maintains a strong grip on a significant portion of the Republican base that has yet to fall in love with an alternative.
DeSantis is Trump’s strongest rival on paper, but the Florida governor has yet to outline a clear path to victory. The Florida governor is trying to out-Trump Trump by taking a harder line on immigration, abortion and other policies that tear at the nation’s divides, while embracing the former president’s combative style and mannerisms.
Meanwhile, Trump’s team is thrilled about the sheer quantity of candidates in the race, which create a math problem that benefits Trump. It looks like 2016 all over again, when Trump won the New Hampshire primary with only 35% of the vote because the other candidates chopped up the rest of the vote.
Advertisement
Trump’s Republican critics warned against this exact scenario over the last year, but for now, they seem incapable of stopping it.
NO CLEAR STRATEGY TO TAKE DOWN TRUMP
Math aside, Trump’s Republican rivals have yet to figure out a consistent strategy to take him down. That’s not to say they haven’t begun to try.
Pence told Iowa voters this week that Trump “demanded I choose between him and the Constitution,” a reference to Trump’s oft-repeated — and false — insistence that Pence had the authority to overturn the 2020 election. Pence called Trump’s words “reckless” and said the former president endangered his family.
DeSantis, like others, has dropped many indirect jabs at Trump, focused largely on the former president’s inability to serve more than one term and the GOP’s “culture of losing” under his leadership since 2016. DeSantis’ team also thinks they have an opportunity to out-flank Trump from the right on conservative priorities like abortion and immigration.
Advertisement
DeSantis shrugged off Trump’s large polling advantage when asked this week in Arizona: “You don’t do a poll a year out and say that’s how the election runs out,” he said.
Christie may be the most vocal Trump critic in the race, although he hasn’t held office in more than five years.
“I’m going out there to take out Donald Trump,” the former New Jersey governor told New Hampshire voters this week. “But here’s why: I want to win, and I don’t want him to win. … There is one lane to the Republican nomination and he’s in front of it.”
Expect to see anti-Trump strategies continue to evolve this weekend in North Carolina.
A DIVERSE FIELD
Advertisement
The 2024 Republican field equals the GOP’s 2016 class as the most racially diverse in the party’s long history.
At least four candidates of color are seeking the presidency this year: Scott and Elder are Black, while Haley and Ramaswamy are of Indian descent. For Haley and Scott in particular, race plays a central role in their pitch to voters, although all four deny the existence of systemic racism and largely oppose federal policies designed to help people based on the color of their skin.
Republican officials are hopeful that the diverse field will help the party continue its modest progress with Black voters and Latinos. Both groups still overwhelmingly support Democrats, but even small cracks in the Democratic coalition could be significant in 2024.
There is just one woman in Republican field. But there is strong diversity in the ages of the candidates: Trump is the oldest at 76, while Ramaswamy is the youngest at 37. DeSantis is just 44, while Haley and Scott are in their 50s. The rest of the candidates are in their 60s and 70s.
RIGHT ON POLICY
Advertisement
With few exceptions, the Republican field has embraced hardline conservative policies on issues like abortion, immigration, gun violence and LGBTQ rights.
All of the candidates oppose abortion rights to some extent, although there are differences in the degree of their opposition and their rhetoric on the procedure. Pence and Scott have openly endorsed national abortion bans, while Trump and DeSantis have avoided taking a firm position on a federal ban so far. That said, DeSantis this spring signed into Florida law a ban on abortions at six weeks of pregnancy, one of the nation’s most restrictive policies.
The entire Republican field also opposes new limits on gun ownership, including an assault weapons ban. Most blame the nation’s gun violence epidemic on mental health issues. DeSantis this spring enacted a new law that allows Florida residents to carry concealed firearms without a permit.
The Republican field has also embraced the party’s recent focus on the LGBTQ community.
Haley mocked and misgendered transgender women on the campaign trail in recent weeks. Trump and DeSantis have decried gender-affirming surgeries for minors as child abuse. And Scott co-sponsored a Senate bill that would cut funding for elementary or middle schools that change a student’s pronouns without first obtaining parental consent.
Advertisement
There appears to be some disagreement on Social Security and Medicare, however.
DeSantis, as a member of Congress, voted for a resolution that would have raised the age to qualify for Medicare and Social Security to 70. He seems to have moved away from that position since becoming the Florida governor. But Trump has seized on his rival’s past position, while vowing to preserve the popular programs.
UNCERTAINTY LOOMS
The Republican field may be settling, but major surprises in the months ahead are virtually guaranteed.
Trump’s legal problems may loom largest. The former president is already facing 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to hush-money payments made during the 2016 campaign to bury allegations that he had extramarital sexual encounters. Federal prosecutors are also currently using grand juries in Washington and Florida as part of their investigation into the possible mishandling of classified documents. And prosecutors in Georgia are investigating whether Trump broke the law while trying to overturn his 2020 election loss.
Advertisement
At the same time, DeSantis has only begun to be vetted on the national stage. Opponents in both parties are pouring through his background for any sign of damaging information. Republican colleagues openly question his interpersonal skills. And he’s quick to mix it up with the media in unscripted moments on the campaign trail.
Meanwhile, major uncertainty hangs over upcoming presidential debates, which are scheduled to begin in late August. Trump, who holds a big lead in early polls, has raised the possibility of skipping the debates altogether. DeSantis has lashed out at mainstream media outlets that would play a role in hosting the televised events. And it’s unclear whether lower-tier candidates could meet the relatively modest polling and fundraising thresholds.
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Macy’s has delayed the release of its third-quarter results after the US retailer revealed that an employee had hidden more than $132mn of delivery expenses since late 2021.
The group said in a securities filing on Monday that an employee had “intentionally made erroneous accounting accrual entries” to hide $132mn to $154mn of cumulative delivery expenses between its fourth quarter of 2021 and the quarter ended November 2 2024.
It said it had launched an independent investigation. There was “no indication” of any adverse effect on its cash management or payments.
Advertisement
The individual was no longer at the company, Macy’s added.
Macy’s was due to report results on Tuesday, but, owing to the expenses issue, instead released preliminary results on Monday morning. Its third-quarter sales fell slightly more than analysts expected to $7.74bn in the three months ending on November 2.
Macy’s shares were down more than 3 per cent in pre-market trading.
Scott Bessent speaks at the National Conservative Conference in Washington D.C., Wednesday, July 10, 2024.
Dominic Gwinn | Afp | Getty Images
Financial markets on Monday welcomed President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for U.S. Treasury secretary, with currencies across the globe rallying on hopes that hedge fund manager Scott Bessent can take some of the sting out of Trump’s more extreme economic views.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.5% to 107.01 on Monday, paring some of its recent gains after a remarkable rally since late September.
Advertisement
The euro was a top performer, rising 0.7% to trade at $1.049 at 12:50 p.m. London time. The Japanese yen, pound sterling and Antipodean currencies were also trading higher against the dollar.
The moves come as global investors reacted to news from late Friday that Trump signaled his intention to nominate Bessent to lead one of the most influential roles in U.S. government. The Treasury Department has broad oversight of tax policy, public debt and international finance.
Strategists regard Bessent, the founder of Connecticut-based investment firm Key Square Group, as a “safe pair of hands,” a well-known market participant and a more moderate pick compared to some of his rivals.
It is expected the 62-year-old will push for Trump to consider a softer approach to tariffs, strip back regulation to boost growth and target a reduction in deficit spending.
“Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary has swelled investor sentiment further with stocks on Wall Street looking set for another flurry of gains,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in a research note.
Advertisement
“Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent’s long career of navigating the twists and turns of markets, has boosted confidence about incoming pro-business policies and lifted hopes that any tariffs would be highly targeted and potentially less inflationary in nature,” she added.
A ‘layered’ approach to tariffs
Trump’s historic election victory earlier this month ratcheted up concerns about the prospect for higher prices, prompting strategists to rethink the outlook for global bond yields and currencies.
It is widely thought that Trump’s pledge to introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs could boost U.S. economic growth — but widen the fiscal deficit and refuel inflation.
An employee sorts navel oranges at a fruit processing factory of Nongfu Spring on November 23, 2024 in Xinfeng County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province of China.
China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images
Advertisement
In an effort to raise revenues, Trump has suggested he could impose a blanket 20% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., with a tariff of up to 60% for Chinese products and one as high as 2,000% on vehicles built in Mexico.
While many economists are skeptical about the effectiveness of tariffs, Bessent has defended them as “a useful tool for achieving the president’s foreign policy objectives.” He has also, however, called for tariffs to be “layered in” gradually.
“News that Scott Bessent is the top choice for incoming US Treasury Minister has raised the possibility that some ‘Trump trades’ may be watered down,” analysts at Rabobank said in a research note.
“Bessent, a successful macro hedge fund manager, is associated with a preference to reduce the US budget deficit to 3% of GDP, which clearly suggests less appetite for deficit spending,” they added.
Bessent, who once worked for billionaire philanthropist and investor George Soros, has advocated for a so-called “3-3-3” target, which refers to a plan to cut the deficit to 3% by 2028, achieve 3% economic growth and add 3 million new barrels of oil per day.
Advertisement
Business as usual?
Some strategists expect Trump’s Treasury chief pick to be welcomed as good news for Asian currencies over the coming months.
“The market view that Bessent is a ‘safe hands’ candidate, may see some relief rally in Treasuries from the open on Monday, as the risk of a more unorthodox candidate is priced out,” Scott Spratt, strategist at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking, said in a research note.
“We suspect his view that tariffs should be ‘layered’ and that initial levels being discussed are ‘maximalist’ positions, should also provide an opening boost to Asia FX and [the Chinese yuan],” he added.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to exit after viewing the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket in Brownsville, Texas, U.S., November 19, 2024.
Brandon Bell | Via Reuters
Advertisement
Tesla CEO Elon Musk suggested that nominating Bessent as Treasury chief would be a disappointment. In a social media post via X on Nov. 16, Musk described Bessent as a “business-as-usual choice,” adding that “business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt.”
Bessent has also been an advocate of Trump’s embrace of the crypto industry, which means he could soon become the first Treasury chief openly in favor of crypto assets. Trump has previously pledged to make America “the crypto capital of the planet.”
Bitcoin breached the $99,000 level for the first time last week as investors continue to price in Trump’s return to the White House.
Two months before Northvolt filed for bankruptcy in the US, Robin Zeng, known as China’s “battery king”, had a quick but grim answer as to why European battery makers were struggling to make good products.
“They have a wrong design . . . they have a wrong process . . . and they have the wrong equipment. How can they scale up?” the chief executive of CATL told Nicolai Tangen, the head of Norway’s $1.8tn oil fund. “So almost all mistakes together.”
The bleak assessment from the world’s biggest electric vehicle battery manufacturer captures the scale of the failure for the industries behind the critical technology for Europe’s decarbonisation, leaving governments, companies and investors at a loss as to how to recraft the continent’s strategy to compete with China.
“How are we not taking this more seriously? The European car industry is the heartland of European industry’s supposed prowess,” said one long-standing investor in Northvolt after the collapse into US bankruptcy last week of Europe’s biggest battery hope. “The depth of the crisis for the European car industry is almost unlimited. It’s incredibly grim.”
Brussels took its first steps to establish a battery supply chain across Europe in 2017, with Northvolt at the heart of its ambitions. The bloc has since increased its share of the global battery market from 3 per cent to 17 per cent with annual turnover of €81bn in 2023 after spending more than €6bn of the EU budget to support cross-border battery projects and research and innovation.
Advertisement
But in terms of EV batteries, Asian participants including CATL, BYD, and LG Energy Solution and SK On of South Korea, control about 70 per cent of the global market. Many of the 30 gigafactory projects in Europe have also been designed and built with the help of Chinese and Korean companies.
As the EU’s ambitions have faltered, the struggles of Northvolt have come to embody the challenge the continent faces. The bloc wants to continue encouraging costly investments in the clean technologies needed to meet its ambitious climate goals, while at the same time stemming the wave of plant closures and job cuts that are already spreading across the automotive sector and heavy industries.
“It’s fair to say we’re at a pivotal moment right now,” said Wouter IJzermans, executive director at the Batteries European Partnership Association.
People involved in the Northvolt saga said options were narrowing for Europe to address its dependence on China and other parts of Asia for the technology and materials that will be critical as the automotive industry transitions to electric vehicles.
Efforts are still being made by other start-ups such as France’s Verkor and Volkswagen’s battery business PowerCo, but they are facing either diminished ambitions or tougher financing prospects.
PowerCo is considering building just one out of the two production lines previously planned for its plant in Salzgitter in Germany due to slowing market demand.
“There was a whole fresh round of audit work and validation of the set-up, our chemistry, the machines and all the equipment,” Lemaignan said. “It’s not something automatic, to find financing today. It’s an issue that goes well beyond Verkor, and affects the financing of all of the energy and climate transition industries.”
In France, there is also Automotive Cells Company, a venture backed by carmakers Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz, and oil major TotalEnergies, which started producing batteries in 2023. But this year ACC paused plans to expand further with plants in Germany and Italy as it considered switching to a lower-cost form of battery technology and adjusted to a slower EV adoption rate.
“There are expansion phases and crisis phases, if you draw a parallel with other industries. Perhaps we’re living through the first big challenges for Europe’s battery industry. But there will be factories and there will be clients, we’re seeing that more and more,” Lemaignan said.
Consequences from Northvolt’s US bankruptcy filing are already being felt, with carmakers being forced once again to turn to their Asian suppliers to reduce their exposure to its collapse.
Germany’s Porsche has never confirmed its relationship with Northvolt, but a person familiar with the agreement between the two companies said the Swedish start-up was contracted to make the batteries for the all-electric Porsche 718, scheduled for launch next year.
Northvolt’s demise means the battle for dominance of the European market is likely to play out between Asian battery makers.
LGES and SK On both have European plants, in Poland and Hungary respectively, while CATL has a factory in Germany and a second site in Hungary due to begin production next year.
But Tim Bush, a Seoul-based battery analyst at UBS, said there was little prospect at present that the Asian battery makers would be able to help the EU to meet its target for 90 per cent of the continent’s EV batteries to be produced locally by 2030.
Bush noted that Korean battery makers were already paring back their investments in Europe, having invested billions of dollars in plants in North America that have been running at low utilisation rates because of lower than expected consumer demand for EVs.
Potential Chinese battery investments on the continent were also likely to be complicated by the ongoing trade dispute between Brussels and Beijing over EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, he added.
Advertisement
“The Koreans are not expanding, the Chinese have suspended construction and Europe’s new entrants are dropping like flies,” said Bush.
Against such obstacles, the European Commission is weighing plans to require Chinese developers to have plants and bring their intellectual property to Europe in order to access EU subsidies, the FT has previously reported.
With European start-ups still behind in their ability to manufacture batteries at scale, industry executives say the only solution may be to continue their reliance on Asian participants until homegrown companies can absorb technology knowhow on battery chemistry, mass production and equipment manufacturing.
“We need to find a deal with China because we won’t be able to compete . . . without the support of the Chinese companies that control the mining industry, chemicals, refining and their capacity and competence,” Luca De Meo, Renault’s chief executive, told reporters last month.
But the dilemma is how long Europe needs to wait for the technology transfers to complete, and whether it would already have lost the race by then.
Advertisement
“If you really zoom out, what does Europe want to be? I really question whether Europe wants to give up yet another industry like it did with solar panels. Europe is not a leader in AI. I want my kids to grow up somewhere where there are a lot of jobs,” said a Northvolt executive.
Reporting by Kana Inagaki and Harriet Agnew in London, Patricia Nilsson in Frankfurt, Sarah White in Paris, Alice Hancock in Brussels, Christian Davies in Seoul, and Richard Milne in Oslo
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25739950/247386_Elon_Musk_Open_AI_CVirginia.jpg "Inside Elon Musk’s messy breakup with OpenAI")
