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Soaring food and fuel prices are destabilizing countries on the brink

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Soaring food and fuel prices are destabilizing countries on the brink
Now, greater than a decade after the Arab Spring, world meals costs are hovering once more. That they had already reached their highest degree on report earlier this yr because the pandemic, poor climate and the local weather disaster upended agriculture and threatened meals safety for hundreds of thousands of individuals. Then got here Russia’s battle in Ukraine, making the scenario a lot worse — whereas additionally triggering a spike in the price of the opposite each day important, gas.

The mixture may generate a wave of political instability, as individuals who have been already pissed off with authorities leaders are pushed over the sting by rising prices.

“This can be very worrisome,” mentioned Rabah Arezki, a senior fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy Faculty of Authorities and former chief economist on the African Growth Financial institution.

“I do not suppose folks have felt the complete impression of rising costs simply but,” mentioned Hamish Kinnear, a Center East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a world danger consultancy.

Classes from the Arab Spring

Within the run-up to the anti-government protests that grew to become often known as the Arab Spring — which started in Tunisia in late 2010 and unfold by the Center East and North Africa in 2011 — meals costs have been climbing sharply. The Meals Worth Index from the United Nations’ Meals and Agriculture Group reached 106.7 in 2010 and jumped to 131.9 in 2011, then a report.
“Mohamed Bouazizi did not set himself on hearth as a result of he could not weblog or vote,” an Emirati commentator wrote in January 2011, referring to the road vendor whose protest act helped launch the revolution in Tunisia and, in the end, the Arab world. “Individuals set themselves on hearth as a result of they can not stand seeing their household wither away slowly, not of sorrow, however of chilly stark starvation.”

Circumstances in particular person nations differed, however the greater image was clear. Surging wheat costs have been a serious a part of the issue.

The scenario now could be even worse than it was then. World meals costs have simply hit a brand new report excessive. The FAO Meals Worth Index printed Friday hit 159.3 in March, up virtually 13% from February. The battle in Ukraine, a serious exporter of wheat, corn and vegetable oils, in addition to harsh sanctions on Russia — a key producer of wheat and fertilizer — is predicted to spur additional value will increase within the coming months.

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“Forty p.c of wheat and corn exports from Ukraine go to the Center East and Africa, that are already grappling with starvation points, and the place additional meals shortages or value will increase may stoke social unrest,” Gilbert Houngbo, head of the Worldwide Fund for Agricultural Growth, mentioned final month.

Including to the ache is the surge in power costs. World oil costs are virtually 60% greater than they have been a yr in the past. The price of coal and pure fuel has spiked, too.

Many governments are struggling to guard their residents, however fragile economies that borrowed closely to make it by the 2008 monetary disaster and the pandemic are most weak. As development slows, hurting their currencies and making it tougher to maintain up with debt funds, sustaining subsidies for meals and gas will probably be troublesome, particularly if costs maintain climbing.

“We are actually in a scenario the place nations are indebted,” Arezki mentioned. “In consequence, they haven’t any buffers to attempt to comprise the tensions that can emerge from such excessive costs.”

In line with the World Financial institution, near 60% of the poorest nations have been “already in debt misery or at excessive danger of it” on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine.

The place tensions are simmering

Asia: In Sri Lanka, an island nation of twenty-two million, an financial and political disaster is already boiling over, with protesters taking to the streets in defiance of curfews and authorities ministers stepping down en masse.

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Grappling with excessive debt ranges and a weak financial system reliant on tourism, Sri Lanka was pressured to run down its reserves of international foreign money. That prevented the federal government from making funds for key imports akin to power, creating devastating shortages and forcing folks to spend hours lining up for gas.

Sri Lanka is facing an economic and political crisis. Here's what you need to know

Its leaders have additionally devalued its foreign money, the Sri Lankan rupee, as they attempt to safe a bailout from the Worldwide Financial Fund. However that simply made inflation worse at residence. In January, it reached 14%, virtually double the speed of value will increase in the US.

In the meantime, Pakistan’s Khan faces a vote of no confidence on Saturday within the nation’s parliament. Whereas his political issues date again years, he is now battling claims of financial mismanagement as the price of meals and gas leaps and the federal government depletes its international trade reserves.

“The extent of financial chaos has united opposition to Imran Khan,” Kinnear of Verisk Maplecroft mentioned.

Center East and Africa: Specialists are additionally expecting indicators of political misery in different nations within the Center East which are closely depending on meals imports from the Black Sea area, and infrequently present beneficiant subsidies to the general public.

In Lebanon, the place almost three-quarters of the inhabitants was residing in poverty final yr as the results of a political and financial collapse, between 70% and 80% of imported wheat comes from Russia and Ukraine. Key grain silos have been additionally destroyed throughout the 2020 explosion on the Beirut port.
And Egypt, the world’s largest purchaser of wheat, is already seeing huge stress on its enormous subsidy program for bread. The nation not too long ago set a hard and fast value for unsubsidized bread after costs spiked, and is making an attempt to safe wheat imports from nations like India and Argentina as a substitute.

With an estimated 70% of the world’s poor residing in Africa, the continent may also be “very uncovered” to rising meals and power costs, Arezki mentioned.

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Droughts and battle in nations like Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and Burkina Faso have created a meals safety disaster for greater than 1 / 4 of the continent’s inhabitants, the Worldwide Committee of the Purple Cross mentioned this week. The scenario dangers getting worse within the coming months, it continued.

Political instability has already been constructing in components of the continent. A sequence of coups have taken place in West and Central Africa because the begin of 2021.

Europe: Even nations with extra developed economies, which have larger buffers to protect residents from painful value will increase, will not have the instruments to completely cushion the blow.

1000’s of protesters gathered in cities throughout Greece this week to demand greater wages to counter inflation, whereas France’s presidential election is narrowing as far-right candidate Marine Le Pen performs up her plans to scale back the price of residing. President Emmanuel Macron’s authorities mentioned final month it was contemplating issuing meals vouchers in order that center and low-income households may afford to eat.

— Jessie Yeung, Rhea Mogul and Sophia Saifi contributed reporting.

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Israel expands Gaza ground offensive after days of air strikes

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Israel expands Gaza ground offensive after days of air strikes

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Israel said on Saturday that it was expanding a new ground offensive in Gaza, with troops closing in on the enclave after days of air strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians.

Defence minister Israel Katz said the renewed fighting was forcing Hamas to soften its stance in talks being held in Qatar to secure the release of the remaining hostages being held in captivity in Gaza — part of an Israeli strategy of “negotiations under fire”.

A Hamas official told Reuters that a new round of talks was under way on Saturday.

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Palestinians fear the new offensive is the precursor to a plan approved on May 5 by Israel’s security cabinet, under which most of the besieged enclave would be occupied by the Israeli military and 2.1mn Palestinians would be forced into a small area by the border with Egypt.

“The Palestinian cause is navigating one of its gravest and most perilous junctures,” Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi told an Arab League summit. Israel is engaged in a “deliberate endeavour to forcibly displace [Gaza’s] inhabitants under untold horrors of war”, he said.

Egypt fears an exodus of Palestinians into its territory. NBC News reported that the US is negotiating with Libya to take in as many as 1mn Palestinian refugees.

At least 250 Palestinians have been killed in the last two days, health officials in Gaza said, with hundreds more wounded.

Israel has blocked any food, medicine or fresh water from entering Gaza for the last two and half months, pushing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into starvation, a UN panel said earlier this week.

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The full extent of the offensive was unclear on Saturday. Residents reported machine gun fire in parts of Gaza and Israeli media said tanks had been massed on the border. Israeli warplanes dropped flyers over some parts of Gaza with a reference to the biblical story about Moses parting the sea.

“The Israeli army is coming,” the flyer, shared widely on social media, said.

Israel stepped up the intensity of its air strikes earlier this week as US President Donald Trump wrapped up his Gulf tour.

Israeli officials had earlier referred to his trip as a “window of opportunity” to broker a swap of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners that would be acceptable to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies.

In the event, Trump only negotiated the release of a single Israeli soldier, who is also an American national.

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An estimated 20 hostages and the bodies of as many as 38 more are still being held by Hamas, which has refused to release them without a complete ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Katz said Hamas’s return to negotiations was evidence that neither a ceasefire nor the resumption of humanitarian assistance to Gaza was necessary for negotiations to succeed.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that Israel’s siege was “beyond description, beyond atrocious and beyond inhumane”.

“A policy of siege & starvation makes a mockery of international law,” he said on X.

His remarks came days after UN Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher warned of a looming “genocide” in Gaza — the first time a senior UN official has publicly used such language.

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Israel rejects Fletcher’s characterisation. It says it has blocked the aid to prevent it from being stolen by Hamas.

More than 53,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began, most of them women and children, according to local health officials.

At least 1,200 people were killed in Israel in Hamas’s cross-border attack on October 7 2023 and 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli officials.

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More than 20 dead after tornadoes sweep through Kentucky and Missouri

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More than 20 dead after tornadoes sweep through Kentucky and Missouri

Storm damage is surveyed in Laurel County, Ky., after tornadoes brought destruction to the region Friday night.

Laurel County, Ky. Fiscal Court/Facebook/Screenshot by NPR


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Laurel County, Ky. Fiscal Court/Facebook/Screenshot by NPR

Powerful storms and tornadoes tore through several Midwestern and Southern states overnight Friday, leaving carnage and flattened buildings in their wake.

In Kentucky at least 24 people have died. Authorities say 23 of those deaths occurred in London, Ky., in the southeastern part of the state, with some people still unaccounted for.

A message shortly after 8 a.m. ET from Gov. Andy Beshear called for prayers for the affected families. But less than an hour later, the number of known deaths had already risen by 10.

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In Missouri, there are at least seven dead — five in the St. Louis area and two others in a more rural part of the state, south of the capital.

Responders there are still searching homes and buildings for survivors, and officials are asking people to stay out of the impacted areas to allow crews to do their work.

According to PowerOutage.us, the storms left nearly a half million customers without power in dozens of states from Missouri to Maryland.

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This is a developing story and will be updated.

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Putin’s peace theatre keeps Trump watching — and Kyiv waiting

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Putin’s peace theatre keeps Trump watching — and Kyiv waiting

In parallel to a brutal war along a 1,000km front, Russia and Ukraine are locked in a titanic diplomatic battle to persuade Donald Trump that the other is the real impediment to peace. 

So Vladimir Putin took a big risk over the last week, slow rolling US negotiators over a peace proposal, according to officials familiar with the discussions, then refusing to turn up for talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkey that he himself had publicly initiated.

So far, the Russian leader’s refusal to engage on terms set by others has been met with little resistance — and certainly not enough to compel concessions or alter the course of his war.

The clearest sign of that came when US President Donald Trump seemed to excuse the Russian leader’s no-show on Thursday and simultaneously questioned the whole point of the Russia-Ukraine talks, saying: “Nothing’s gonna happen until Putin and I get together.”

It was a gift to Putin, who has long sought a one-on-one meeting with a president determined to normalise US-Russian relations. For the Ukrainians, it revived their worst fears — that Trump will seek to cut a deal with Putin over their heads and sell Ukraine down the river. 

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“Putin is doing just enough to convince Trump that he is engaged in this effort to find peace in Ukraine, while also doing as much as possible to make sure it goes nowhere,” said a senior European diplomat involved in the negotiations between western capitals. “And Trump is falling for it.”

That suspicion is shared by some of America’s closest allies. Putin, German defence minister Boris Pistorius said this week, was “trying to lead the American president down the garden path” by refusing to come to Istanbul. “I’m pretty sure that the American president can’t be happy about that,” he told reporters in Berlin.

(2nd left to right) US secretary of state Marco Rubio, Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan and Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian president’s office, in Istanbul on Friday © Arda Kucukkaya/Turkish Foreign Ministry via Getty Images

Putin’s reluctance to take part in substantive peace negotiations has become clearer in recent days, even to those in the Trump administration who had been inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

On Thursday last week, senior Russian officials told Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, that Putin did not want to discuss the 22-point peace plan that Witkoff had drawn up with Ukrainian and European input, three people briefed on the discussions told the FT.

Those 22 points were discussed at length the following day on a call between Ukrainian and US officials, according to people familiar with the matter. Ukraine was represented on the call by Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and Ukrainian defence minister Rustem Umerov; the US by Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also currently serving as national security adviser, and Gen Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Kyiv.

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Russia’s response resulted in Witkoff, who has met Putin for talks four times since February, postponing provisional plans to meet the Russian leader this week, the people said. A person close to Witkoff said no trip had been planned.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets US special envoy Steve Witkoff (left) prior to their talks in Moscow on April 25
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets US special envoy Steve Witkoff (left) prior to their talks in Moscow on April 25 © Kristina Kormilitsyna/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

In the days that followed, the pace of diplomatic activity picked up. European and Ukrainian leaders met to call for an unconditional, 30-day ceasefire in the war, warning Putin of tough new sanctions if he failed to comply — a demand supported by the US.

Putin rejected the demand but came back with his own counterproposal — direct Russia-Ukraine talks, to be held on Thursday in Istanbul. Trump welcomed the idea and urged Zelenskyy to take part. The Ukrainian leader acceded to his request and challenged Putin to come to Turkey himself for what would have been only the second in-person meeting between them. 

But the Russian leader refused and sent a low-level delegation instead, led by his former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky.

The meeting, held on Friday, wrapped up after less than two hours, without a breakthrough. The two sides agreed to swap thousands of prisoners-of-war, but made no progress on a lasting ceasefire.

European leaders expressed their frustration. “The past few hours have shown that Russia has no interest in a ceasefire and that, unless there is increased pressure from the Europeans and Americans to achieve this outcome, it will not happen spontaneously,” said French President Emmanuel Macron said, referring to new sanctions.

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“People in Ukraine and across the world have paid the price for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine and across Europe, now he must pay the price for avoiding peace,” said UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Starmer, Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk ended up issuing a joint statement saying Putin’s position was “unacceptable”.

The four leaders, together with Zelenskyy, also held a joint phone call with Trump. Starmer said there was now “a high level of co-ordination” between a core of four countries — the UK, France, Germany and Poland — “and the US administration of President Trump” on Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives to speak to the media after his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday in Ankara, Turkey
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives for a press conference after meeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara, Turkey on Thursday © Getty Images

“It is just drip, drip, drip,” said one European foreign minister, referring to Europe’s messaging to the Trump administration in the hope the president eventually shifts position on Russia.

But so far that European rhetoric has not been matched by anyone in the Trump administration, which has continued to express frustration with both sides in the conflict, without singling out Russia, and hint that it could walk away.

Rubio said on Thursday that Trump was “willing to stick with this as long as it takes to achieve peace”. “What we cannot do, however, is continue to fly all over the world and engage in meetings that are not going to be productive,” he said.

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A senior Ukrainian official described the situation as Putin and Zelenskyy being locked in a geopolitical game of “blackjack” — with Trump as the dealer.

Putin held a “strong but risky” hand, the official said. Ukraine is betting that if he draws one more card, the Russian president could go “bust”.

Additional reporting by George Parker in Tirana

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