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Russia turns to Syria playbook with shifting claims over grounds for war

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Russia turns to Syria playbook with shifting claims over grounds for war

As Russia started to construct a pretext for struggle with Ukraine in February, it accused Kyiv of firing into Russian soil and blowing up a distant border checkpoint — albeit with no reported casualties.

Now, as its forces lay siege to Ukrainian cities with rising brutality, Moscow has justified its invasion by citing fears that Ukraine was restarting its nuclear weapons programme. Russia additionally claimed to have discovered paperwork displaying Ukraine had developed chemical and organic weapons underneath the orders of “curators from the Pentagon”.

Russia’s causes for launching the struggle, nonetheless, are ever evolving. They now embrace accusations Ukraine was creating ethnically focused bioweapons to bloodbath Slavs and that Kyiv had researched the bat coronavirus in methods suggesting it might have been accountable for the Covid-19 pandemic.

Ukraine and its western allies worry the claims could possibly be laying the groundwork for a grisly new Russian assault.

“We’re accused of assaults on allegedly peaceable Russia. And now what?” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a video handle on Thursday. “What else have you ever ready for us? The place will you strike with chemical weapons?”

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Specialists have drawn parallels with Moscow’s assist for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. There, Russia typically blamed chemical weapons assaults that hit opposition areas on the rebels themselves. Analysts now say Russia could also be pre-emptively creating an analogous narrative about Ukraine to justify extra aggressive assaults.

“Primarily, the sport right here is to create a story the place you’re arguing that your opponent is about to make use of these heinous weapons to justify brutal navy motion towards them,” stated Hanna Notte, a senior analysis affiliate on the Vienna Heart for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.

“If we’re shifting in the direction of an assault on Kyiv or on different main Ukrainian cities within the coming days then this narrative could possibly be a part of laying the groundwork for that.”

Russia’s messaging round chemical weapons carries robust echoes of a fuel assault in rebel-held suburbs in Damascus in 2013. In an opinion piece within the New York Instances, President Vladimir Putin argued that rebels had staged a false-flag assault to encourage worldwide intervention, after US president Barack Obama had known as chemical weapons his “pink line” in Syria.

A Syrian man receiving oxygen after a nerve fuel assault within the Damascus suburbs in 2013. Russia’s messaging round chemical weapons carries robust echoes of the assault © Ammar Dar/Reuters

Chemical weapons strikes re-emerged years later after Russia had intervened militarily in Syria on Assad’s behalf. Chemical weapons analysts blamed Assad forces for many of those assaults. However Russian officers stated not solely that the assaults have been false flags, in addition they insisted some have been staged.

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Moscow’s arguments performed into scepticism about US justifications for struggle, after Washington justified the 2003 Iraq invasion by alleging that Baghdad was creating weapons of mass destruction, claims that turned out to be false.

Now, the rhetoric seems to have resurfaced in Ukraine, in keeping with Tobias Schneider, a fellow on the International Public Coverage Institute who has researched chemical weapons in Syria.

“What it seems like is that the individuals the Russians have engaged on Ukraine merely opened the playbook and pulled out the outdated tropes they’d been utilizing for years — and significantly those the west had already used towards them,” Schneider stated.

Russia’s accusations to justify the struggle have shifted after it failed to realize the fast victory it seems to have anticipated.

Moscow initially stated it was defending Russian-speaking Ukrainians from a US-backed “neo-Nazi” regime and had acted after studying of plans to assault Russia. Later Russia started to assert that Ukraine was set on restarting its nuclear programme and that its “capabilities have been a lot larger than these of Iran or North Korea”.

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On March 6 these claims disappeared from Russian state media in favour of a brand new narrative: Russia claimed to have found Ukrainian work on “bioagents able to infecting particular ethnic teams” and research on the migratory routes of birds that would carry the deathly pathogens into Russian territory.

Three days later Russia stated “Ukrainian nationalists” had stashed 80 tonnes of ammonia close to Kharkiv, a metropolis badly hit by Russia’s siege, “in preparation for a provocation utilizing toxic substances to accuse Russia of supposedly utilizing chemical weapons”.

Apartments damaged by shelling in Kharkiv.
Flats broken by shelling in Kharkiv. Russia stated ‘Ukrainian nationalists’ had stashed 80 tonnes of ammonia close to town © Andrew Marienko/AP

Organic weapons seem to have grown within the Kremlin’s evaluation of the threats it faces, although Moscow has supplied little proof.

Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s safety council, stated final yr that US-controlled bioweapons amenities have been “rising as if on yeast [ . . .] by some unusual coincidence, largely on the Russian and Chinese language borders”.

Moscow has repeatedly accused the US since 2018 of creating organic weapons in a lab in Georgia, which misplaced a five-day struggle with Russia in 2008. Gennady Zyuganov, the chief of Russia’s Communist get together, claimed this week that American scientists wished “to poison all the pieces Russian and eradicate our nation”.

Because the struggle continues the assorted Russian claims assist the Kremlin inform its inhabitants that it had acted to guard them from Ukrainian threats, stated Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Moscow Centre.

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“It’s crucial to clarify that it’s a preventive struggle,” Gabuev stated.

On Friday, Russia took its declare to the UN, the place Vasily Nebeznya, its ambassador, accused the US and Ukraine of utilizing birds, bats and bugs to ship “harmful pathogens” round Europe. His western counterparts rejected the declare, which they stated they feared might preclude a “false flag assault” in Ukraine.

However the notions alone have superior Russia’s trigger, Schneider stated.

“For them, the very fact of it being true or not doesn’t matter, and I feel they assume the Individuals are precisely the identical method,” Schneider added. “What it does is present them [with] leverage . . . they’ll use this to play video games on the UN or the OPCW.”

It additionally “merely muddies the waters on each stage,” he stated. “When you maintain utilizing this narrative that was utilized in Syria, you allow individuals pondering that [these accusations are] simply thrown round in each struggle. Who is aware of what’s true?”

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Crews race to contain LA wildfires as menacing winds may ramp up: Live updates

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Crews race to contain LA wildfires as menacing winds may ramp up: Live updates
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LOS ANGELES − Fire crews on Sunday were racing to gain an upper hand against infernos that have ignited across the Los Angeles area amid ominous new wind warnings as flames threatened additional Southern California communities.

Aircraft unloaded water and fire retardant on hills where the Palisades Fire − the most destructive in the history of Los Angeles − ballooned another 1,000 acres to a total of 23,654, destroying more homes. The expansion of the fire, which was 11% contained, to the north and east spurred officials to issue more mandatory evacuations to the west of the 405 freeway as the blaze put parts of Encino and Brentwood in peril.

Cal Fire official Todd Hopkins said the Palisades Fire had spread into the Mandeville Canyon neighborhood and threatened to jump into the upscale Brentwood community and the San Fernando Valley.

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The Palisades Fire is one of six blazes that have erupted since Tuesday, leaving at least 16 people dead. Four of the six fires remained active on Sunday.

Santa Ana winds that have fueled the blazes for the past week were expected to strengthen Sunday morning in Los Angeles and Ventura counties and again late Monday through Tuesday morning. Sustained winds could reach 30 mph, with gusts up to 70 mph possible , forecasters said.

“Critical fire-weather conditions will unfortunately ramp up again … for southern California and last through at least early next week as periodic enhancements of off-shore winds continue,” the National Weather Service said. “This may lead to the spread of ongoing fires as well as the development of new ones.”

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Developments:

∎ About12,000 structures have been damaged or destroyed from the wildfires, which have consumed about 38,000 acres of land total, according to CalFire.

∎ Evacuation orders throughout the Los Angeles area now cover 153,000 residents. Another 166,000 residents have been warned that they may have to evacuate, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna, said.

∎ Gov. Gavin Newsom announced an investigation into water supply issues that may have impeded firefighters’ efforts.

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At least 16 people have died between the Eaton and Palisades fires, the Los Angeles County Medical Examiner said Saturday.

The Palisades Fire had at least five deaths, according to medical examiner records, and 11 people have died in the Eaton Fire.

Of the 16 total deaths in both fires, the only victim identified by officials was Victor Shaw, 66, who died Wednesday protecting his home in Altadena. Another victim was man in his 80s, but authorities did not release his name, pending notification of next of kin.

To the northeast, the Eaton Fire stood at 14,117 acres and was 15% contained after ripping through parts of Altadena and Pasadena. More than 7,000 structures were damaged or destroyed,  Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said.

In Altadena, California official Don Fregulia said managing the Eaton Fire and its impact will be a “huge, Herculean task” that he said will take “many weeks of work.”

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Progress was reported Saturday in bringing electrical power back to some Los Angeles neighborhoods.

Southern California Edison CEO Steven Powell said there are now about 48,000 customers without power, “down from over half a million just a couple days ago.”

Yes fire officials warned public safety power shutoffs were again likely to prevent new fires being ignited.

“They help save lives,” Marrone said. “Yes, they’re a challenge to deal with, but it’s certainly better than having another fire start.”

Richard and Cathryn Conn evacuated from the Pacific Palisades neighborhood earlier this week, only to find out that much of their neighborhood had been decimated. But they still aren’t sure about their four-bedroom house where they’d lived for over a quarter-century.

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“You can visualize every room,’’ Richard Conn, 75, said, “and then you know there’s a 50% chance it doesn’t exist anymore.”

“If you have ever wondered what it was like living in Dresden after the World War II firebombing, you should come to the Palisades,” he said.

They also don’t know what’s going to happen next as dangerous weather conditions have made it difficult to contain the fires, and more brush fires seem to keep popping up all over the county.

“I feel like people are panicking,” said Gary Baseman, 64. Read more.

As California fire officials are still getting to the bottom of what sparked the wildfires raging across Los Angeles, and politicians point fingers at one another, climate change is helping drive an increase in large wildfires in the U.S.

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“Climate change is leading to larger and more severe wildfires in the western United States,” the latest National Climate Assessment previously reported. These fires have “significant public health, socioeconomic, and ecological implications for the nation.”

But is climate change the main factor in California? It’s not quite that simple. Reporters from the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, dive into this topic. Read more here

Contributing: Jeanine Santucci, Eduardo Cuevas; Reuters

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Video: Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

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Video: Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

new video loaded: Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

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Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

Deep into the evacuation zone, volunteers are stepping in to evacuate L.A. residents from encroaching wildfires. Armed with radios, hoses and knowledge of the area, this brigade offers help to overextended fire departments as they try to reach people who have yet to flee.

“Top is Yankee.” “Victor’s your side. Yankee is the other side of Topanga, OK?” Community fire brigade volunteers are on the streets of Topanga, California. The Palisades fire was encroaching on this home, and Keegan Gibbs and his team were working to evacuate the owner. “OK, hi. So I gotta do this fast, so.” “I honestly just kind of want you to leave, because it’s getting bad.” “No we’re out of here in five minutes.” The brigade works to back up the fire department when resources are stretched thin. “L.A. County and the other supporting agencies are the best in the world at what they do. Events like this, it’s not enough.” The Palisades fire has now been burning for several days, and has destroyed tens of thousands of acres. “It makes no sense for somebody to try to stay here. It’s so unbelievably dangerous.” “I walked kind of with Keegan a little bit. We were going to stay, probably going to stay for a little while, but we walked the property and it’s just almost like, I just don’t think it’s safe. Can you just open that? I’m want to throw some more stuff in here, and then we’ll be good. Just going to put pictures, important memorabilia.” “There’s a huge denial that people won’t be affected by fire, and we have to be advocates for people to realize and accept that risk.” With firefighters still unable to contain two of the region’s largest fires, more L.A. residents are expected to join the tens of thousands who have already been forced to evacuate. “Our mission is to make sure people are safe, just full stop.”

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Malaysia expects surge of Chinese investment, economy minister says

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Malaysia expects surge of Chinese investment, economy minister says

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Chinese chipmakers and technology companies are heading to Malaysia in droves, its economy minister Rafizi Ramli said, as Beijing prepares to face more tariffs when Donald Trump returns as US president this month.

The moves by Chinese companies, which are expected to result in billions of dollars of investment in Malaysia in the coming years, would rival the US companies that have dominated the country’s market, he said.

“Chinese [companies] are very keen to go outside and expand beyond their domestic market,” Rafizi told the Financial Times in an interview. “Those companies are now looking at relocating or expanding into Malaysia.”

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Trump has threatened to impose 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports when he re-enters the White House on January 20, rattling investors and putting companies on alert to restructure their supply chains.

Malaysia has been a big beneficiary over the past decade of such “China-plus-one” strategies, where multinational companies complement their Chinese operations with investments in regional countries to diversify risk and lower costs.

It has also positioned itself as a crucial player in global supply chains for high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence, with long-standing semiconductor manufacturing operations in Penang in the north and a burgeoning hub for data centres in the southern state of Johor.

US companies have dominated these sectors in Malaysia, but Rafizi said he expected a wave of Chinese investment on the back of initiatives his government was putting in place to develop the industries further.

Joe Biden’s administration has restricted sales of advanced chips by US companies to China, posing a potential threat to their investments in Malaysia, where many of the products are manufactured, and opening the door for Chinese competitors.

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Rafizi said he made a 10-day trip in June to China, where he met 100 AI, tech and biomedical companies to assess their appetite for investing in Malaysia. He added that these efforts had resulted in two investment delegations from China in the past few months.

“Chinese investments usually come with their own ecosystem,” he said. “We will be seeing more and more, especially if we can secure the first two or three anchor investors from China.”

He added that many companies were also seeking to increase exposure to the fast-growing south-east Asian market as China’s economic momentum slows and trade with the US faces additional barriers.

This week, Malaysia signed an agreement with Singapore to create a vast special economic zone between the two countries. Malaysia hopes the initiative will add $26bn a year to its economy by 2030, bringing in 20,000 skilled jobs and 50 new projects.

Between 2019 and 2023, Malaysia attracted $21bn of investment into its semiconductor industry and $10bn into data centres — the storage facilities that enable fast-growing technologies such as AI, cloud computing and cryptocurrency mining. In the past year alone, US tech companies Amazon, Nvidia, Google and Microsoft committed nearly $16bn, mostly for data centres in Johor.

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TikTok owner ByteDance is the largest Chinese group to invest in Johor, with a $2bn commitment last year.

Rafizi said that while historically, Malaysia had been happy to accept any foreign investment, it was becoming more selective as it sought to contribute more value to the products and services it produced.

He added that while increasing US-China tensions would harm global trade, it could prompt Chinese companies to give Malaysia a bigger role in chip design, rather than just manufacturing, which would generate more income as the country climbed the value chain.

“The unintended consequence of some tariff measures targeted at Chinese companies basically helps countries like Malaysia to weed out the more genuine and long-term investments from China compared to the ones that just look to use Malaysia as a manufacturing outpost,” he said.

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