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RFK's voters know they're not electing the next president. They're with him anyway
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s independent presidential campaign has drawn supporters who don’t see themselves represented by Democrats or Republicans. Although he likely won’t win the 2024 presidential election, who shows up to vote for him could help determine if President Biden or Former President Donald Trump do.
JOSH EDELSON/AFP via Getty Images/AFP
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JOSH EDELSON/AFP via Getty Images/AFP
NASHVILLE – Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s presidential campaign is the political equivalent of a Rorschach test: it’s open to interpretation, it aims to be a lot of different things to a lot of different people and its significance and meaning are squarely in the eyes of the beholder.
Kennedy’s independent bid is marketed as an alternative choice for those who don’t like President Biden, former President Donald Trump or the two-party system the country operates under.
Democrats and Republicans see the campaign as a threat that could siphon away enough of their voters in key swing states to tip the election to the other side.
But what about his supporters?
They’re people like Susan Parker, who traveled from Norman, Okla., to Nashville this month for a comedy show put on by the campaign at the historic Ryman Auditorium.
Despite never donating to a presidential candidate before, Parker maxed out campaign contributions to RFK, as he’s often known, after listening to him speak on various podcasts and in other longform interviews where he shared his political philosophy.
“I feel like I’ve gotten to know him as a person, I see him think and everything,” she added. “So that’s what excites me about him being in this race – it’s a third choice.”
Susan Parker came from Oklahoma to Tennessee to hear Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. speak at a campaign comedy show. She donated the maximum amount to his independent presidential run and feels he is inspiring compared to President Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Stephen Fowler, NPR
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Stephen Fowler, NPR
Parker, clad in a shirt that reads “The Remedy is Kennedy 2024,” has historically voted for Republicans, including Trump, and says her choice is less about voting against Trump and Biden and more about enthusiasm for Kennedy himself.
“He inspires me personally, and I enjoy listening to him talk,” she said. “I have a little bit of a cringe factor when I listen to the other two major candidates.”
So many of RFK’s supporters mention his candidacy as an important alternative representing issues that are most important to them.
“I certainly align with him on his views on the health of America and his wanting to get us all more healthy,” she said. “I didn’t know what his stances were on other political areas like the war and the middle class, but as I listened to him, I realized, no, he knows what he’s doing. He knows what he’s talking about. And I like what he’s saying.”
What draws people to RFK?
She’s not alone. An overwhelming issue of importance to Kennedy supporters is health, and more specifically vaccines. It’s part of his campaign’s embrace of skepticism about the government’s role in, well, everything.
Brittany Ruiz from nearby Franklin, Tenn., said at the comedy show that she considered Kennedy a longtime family friend after years of work in opposition to vaccine mandates.
Ruiz said while she’s a fan of Trump, Kennedy is better on the things that matter to her, like tackling corruption, standing up to big pharmaceutical companies and rolling back government agencies’ purview in daily life.
“I would say that RFK Jr. has been strong on all the issues I feel like all of us want to be talked about or want to have addressed and want to have handled,” she said. “And so for me, my allegiance is more toward the fact that he is speaking on issues that no other candidate is talking about. That’s why I’m a big fan.”
Many of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s campaign supporters say his views on improving health are important to them, and push back on claims that he is anti-vaccine.
Stephen Fowler, NPR
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Stephen Fowler, NPR
Outside of a recent rally in Austin, Tony Farmer told NPR that Kennedy’s focus on addressing the rise of chronic disease diagnoses is a crucial issue he feels Biden and Trump don’t adequately discuss.
“I like that RFK Jr.’s actually addressing the why: why our nation is so sick?,” he said. “Because to me, nothing’s more important than our health. Health is an economic issue. Our health is a social justice issue. Our health is an environmental issue. It’s tied up into so many other things. To me, it’s one of the most important things and it’s not being talked about.”
It’s important to note Kennedy supporters interviewed by NPR push back against claims that he is anti-vaccine, or that they are either.
Farmer, for example, pointed to Kennedy’s record as an environmental lawyer – like cleaning up the Hudson River and suing Monsanto over cancer-causing chemicals – as something that gets overlooked by the talk of vaccines.
“This dude is a badass activist, and it seems like all people know about who haven’t researched him is, like, he’s anti-vax, he’s anti-vaccine, he’s anti-vaccine,” Farmer said. “And when you actually listen to him talk, he’s not anti-vaccine. He wants safe vaccines.”
But in listening to Kennedy, or his vice presidential pick Nicole Shanahan, skepticism of vaccinations and conspiracies about their effects dominate campaign conversations more than mentions of Monsanto or global conflict, inflation or immigration.
And Kennedy’s rise to political prominence cannot be seen without looking at his role fighting against current vaccine standards.
Like the nebulous inkblots of a Rorschach test, Kennedy’s supporters see the candidate’s activism and ideology differently than how they believe the mainstream media, Democrats and Republicans portray him.
“When I started hearing him talk and actually like listening to the words that he was saying,” Farmer said, “it’s like, wow, what I’ve been hearing in the media about this guy isn’t true. He’s not crazy. He’s not a kook!”
Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. speaks at the Libertarian National Convention on May 24, 2024 in Washington, DC. Kennedy is seeking qualification to be part of the first presidential debate currently scheduled on June 27 between Democrat President Biden and Republican, former President Donald Trump.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images/Getty Images North America
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Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images/Getty Images North America
Distrust of the existing political system
While waiting for the RFK rally in Austin, Cathleen Yanco and Paul DeSantis shared why they support his campaign.
“Paul started following him first, and I was like, ‘I can’t believe you’re following him, you know he’s anti-vax, he’s this, he’s that’,” Yanco said. “And I did do the Google searches to try and find what I could on him, and it was all just the soundbites, the negative soundbites.”
After doing more research, including hearing more of Kennedy’s thoughts about things like freedom of speech, affordable housing and the influence of money in food, pharmaceuticals and other industries, Yanco said she apologized to DeSantis for initially criticizing his support for Kennedy.
“I do question everything I hear now,” she said. “I feel like my eyes have been opened since learning about Kennedy and looking a little more in depth, not just mainstream and not just Joe Rogan’s podcast, not the popular stuff, but going a little more in depth. And I’m actually quite upset that I was fooled like that.”
Yanco voted for Democratic candidates in the past and said she is open minded to the platform of any candidate running, but said she does not currently trust what Democrats or Republicans say.
Her thoughts echo that of many RFK voters who say they feel like the two major parties don’t have a place for “normal people” who don’t have extreme views.
Tony Farmer, at that same Austin event, said his disconnect with the Democratic Party is over foreign policy.
“Remember when Democrats were taking George Bush to task for the wars in Iraq? What happened to the anti-war left? Where did it go?,” he asked. “I feel like I’m staying still for the most part, and the Democratic Party is just moving further and further left.”
Farmer said Kennedy’s views and platform excites him and provides a new opportunity to buck a polarizing two-party system.
“It’s at a point where I can’t have an honest, open debate with someone and say something against Trump without someone being ‘Well, you must love Biden then,’ or you can’t say anything bad about Biden without someone saying ‘You must love Trump, then,’” he said.
“It’s such a mess.”
Don’t call him a spoiler
The next president will likely not be Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. He faces an uphill battle to get on the ballot in all 50 states, let alone to win significant share of the popular vote, but that’s not deterring those who have already committed to vote for him.
Susan Parker at the campaign comedy show in Nashville, said RFK’s campaign is raising more awareness of the importance of who our politicians are and how they impact policy.
“There will be victory to be claimed, because I think a lot of people will take notice that didn’t take notice before like myself,” she said. “And it’s very exciting to finally be part of an election process.”
On that note, every Kennedy supporter interviewed by NPR at these two events did not think they were wasting their vote, despite no real path to victory, and despite the likelihood that his presence could who ultimately does win: Biden or Trump.
“I don’t want to be told ‘Well, if you support Kennedy, then that means Trump’s going to get into office,’” Cathleen Yanco said. “Well, we need some changes. And unless we start somewhere, even if that means the potential for someone I detest getting into office… so be it.”
“A vote for Kennedy is a vote for Kennedy, he’s not a spoiler for anyone,” Paul DeSantis added. “I mean, all we want is another voice in America, and he’s it. We’re just tired of the division between the two parties.”
The Kennedy-shaped inkblot that’s still very much up to interpretation is how his voters will impact the 2024 presidential rematch between Trump and Biden.
These RFK voters have previously voted for Democrats and Republicans, vote both regularly and infrequently and cut across a demographic and ideological spectrum.
Both Democrats and Republicans share concerns that RFK’s independent bid will draw enough disaffected voters from their party to tilt the scales in an election that could once again be decided by narrow margins in a handful of states.
Who Kennedy’s voters could or would otherwise support is harder to gauge this far out from November, though there are signs that his independent campaign is focused on one side of the aisle.
An NPR review of campaign finance records show roughly 95% of RFK’s itemized donors have not given money to a presidential candidate since 2020. Of those who have, almost all contributions were to Republicans.
Kennedy and Shanahan’s prominent views around vaccine skepticism cut across the ideological spectrum, while conspiracies around the coronavirus are also more commonly found on the political right.
Last week, RFK spoke at the Libertarian Party’s national convention, attacking Donald Trump over his response to the pandemic and unsuccessfully sought the party’s nomination for president.
Ultimately, RFK’s impact will come down to a few basic metrics: what states the campaign successfully gains ballot access in, how many of them are swing states, how strategically swing voters view their choices and how many RFK voters actually show up to the polls.
NPR’s Ashley Lopez contributed reporting.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., takes questions at a news conference at the Capitol on Tuesday.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP
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J. Scott Applewhite/AP
Speaker Mike Johnson, R.-La., is forging ahead with his latest proposal to renew a key American spy power. His bill, revealed Thursday, is largely unchanged from a previous plan which failed in a series of overnight votes earlier this month.
The program at center of the debate, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), is set to expire on April 30.
FISA 702 allows U.S. intelligence agencies to intercept the electronic communications of foreign nationals located outside of the United States. Some of the nearly 350,000 foreign targets whose communications are collected under the provision are in touch with Americans, whose calls, texts and emails could end up in the trove of information available to the federal government for review.
For almost two decades, privacy-minded lawmakers from both parties have sought to require specific court approval before federal law enforcement can conduct a targeted review of an American’s information gathered through the program. The lack of any such warrant requirement helped sink an effort last week to extend the program for 18 months, as well as a separate vote on a five-year renewal.
Trump officials, like those in past administrations, have argued that such a warrant requirement would overburden law enforcement and endanger national security. Johnson’s latest proposal would reauthorize the program for three years, but does not include a warrant requirement. Instead, the bill calls for the FBI to submit monthly explanations for reviews of Americans’ information to an oversight official as well as criminal penalties for willful abuse, among other tweaks.
“I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our Great Military and Country,” the president wrote on Truth Social last week, advocating for the program to be extended without changes. “I have spoken with many in our Military who say FISA is necessary in order to protect our Troops overseas, as well as our people here at home, from the threat of Foreign Terror Attacks. It has already prevented MANY such Attacks, and it is very important that it remain in full force and effect.”
Glenn Gerstell, who served as general counsel at the National Security Agency during the Obama and first Trump administration, says Johnson’s reforms look like an attempt to find a middle ground.
“There’s not a lot of really substantive changes to the statute, but some gestures are made to people who are worried about privacy and civil liberties,” Gerstell said. “It seems like a pretty reasonable compromise that is going to be satisfactory to the national security agencies and yet at the same time represents some gesture to the privacy advocates.”
“This is not a reform bill and it’s not a compromise,” Elizabeth Goitein, a privacy advocate and senior director of the Liberty and National Security Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, wrote on X. “It’s a straight reauthorization with eight pages of words that serve no serious purpose other than to try to convince members that it’s NOT a straight reauthorization.”
A bipartisan reform deal is still out of reach
Connecticut Rep. Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence committee, told NPR on Wednesday, before the release of Johnson’s new proposal, that lawmakers were working on a bipartisan solution. He said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., was in touch with Johnson on the issue.
“There’s a lot of work being done here,” Himes said. “We’re sort of working out a process that will be inclusive rather than exclusive.” Himes said he was negotiating with Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat and constitutional law scholar, on a reform proposal they hoped could preserve and reform the program — reauthorizing it with bipartisan support.
But Johnson’s new bill appears to fall short of the inclusive approach Himes hoped for.
NPR obtained a memo written by Raskin to his colleagues urging them to oppose the bill, which he said “continues the disastrous policy of trusting the FBI to self-police and self-report its abuses of Section 702 and backdoor searches of Americans’ data.”
“FBI agents can still collect, search, and review Americans’ communications without any review from a judge,” Raskin wrote.
FBI agents must receive annual training on FISA and are generally barred from searching for information about people in the U.S. if the goal of the search is to investigate general criminal activity, rather than find foreign intelligence information, and those searches need approval from a supervisor or an attorney.
Republican hardliners — who sunk Johnson’s last reauthorization attempt — also don’t all appear to be on board for Johnson’s latest revision. Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, a past chair of the Freedom Caucus, said “we’re not there yet” in a video he shared to X on Thursday.
“I didn’t take an oath to defend FISA, I didn’t take an oath to defend the intelligence community,” Perry said. “We can’t have them spying on American citizens and, when they do, there has to be accountability and I haven’t seen any that I’m satisfied with yet.”
The House Rules committee meets Monday morning, the first step toward advancing the renewal bill toward a vote.
President Trump announced a three-week extension of a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon that had been set to expire in a few days, after hosting a meeting between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats at the White House on Thursday.
Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group that has been attacking Israel from southern Lebanon, did not have representatives at the meeting and did not immediately comment on the announcement. The prime minister of Israel and the president of Lebanon also did not comment.
A successful peace agreement would hinge upon Hezbollah halting attacks, which Lebanon’s government has little power to enforce because it does not control the militia. Lebanon’s military has mostly stayed out of the fighting and is not at war with Israel.
The cease-fire, which was scheduled to end on April 26, would last until May 17 if it takes effect as Mr. Trump described it. Before the cease-fire was brokered last week, nearly 2,300 people were killed in Lebanon and 13 in Israel. Since then, the number of Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah attacks have been dramatically reduced, though the two sides have continued exchanging fire.
The Lebanese Ambassador to the United States, Nada Hamadeh, credited Mr. Trump for extending the cease-fire, saying that “with your help and support, we can make Lebanon great again.” Mr. Trump replied, “I like that phrase, it’s a good phrase.”
Asked about the potential of a lasting peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, Mr. Trump said that “I think there’s a great chance. They are friends about the same things and they are enemies on the same things.”
But Lebanon and Israel have periodically been at war since Israel’s founding in 1948. Israel has invaded Lebanon for the fifth time since 1978, incursions that have destabilized the country and the delicate balance of power between Muslim, Christian and Druze communities.
In the hours before the president’s announcement on social media, Israel and Hezbollah were trading attacks in southern Lebanon, testing the existing cease-fire.
Mr. Trump said the meeting at the White House had been attended by high-ranking U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the U.S. ambassadors to Israel and Lebanon.
Earlier on Thursday, an Israeli strike near the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh killed three people, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Hezbollah claimed three separate attacks on Israeli troops who are occupying southern Lebanon, though none were wounded or killed.
Hezbollah set off the latest round of fighting last month by attacking Israel soon after the start of the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran. Israel responded to Hezbollah’s attacks by launching airstrikes across Lebanon and widening a ground invasion of the country’s south.
Smoke rises from Port of La Guaira in Venezuela on Jan. 3, 2026 after U.S. forces seized the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
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Federal prosecutors on Thursday unsealed an indictment against a U.S. Army soldier, accusing him of using his insider knowledge of the clandestine military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January to reap more than $400,000 in profits on the popular prediction market site Polymarket.
The Justice Department says Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who was stationed at Fort Bragg, in North Carolina, was part of the team that planned and carried out the predawn raid in Caracas earlier this year that resulted in the apprehension of Maduro.
The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed the actions against Van Dyke, the first time U.S. officials have leveled criminal charges against someone over prediction market wagers.
According to the indictment, Van Dyke now faces counts of wire fraud, commodities fraud, misusing non-public government information and other charges.
Trading under numerous usernames including “Burdensome-Mix,” Van Dyke allegedly traded about $32,000 on the arrest of Maduro, resulting in profits exceeding $400,000.
“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York. “Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have a duty to protect them and our armed service members, and not to use that information for personal financial gain.”
Van Dyke’s defense lawyer is not yet publicly known. Polymarket did not return a request for comment.
The charges against Van Dyke come at a sensitive time for the prediction market industry, which has been growing exponentially, despite calls in Washington and among state leaders for the sites to be reined in.
Van Dyke is the first to be charged in the U.S. for suspected Polymarket insider trading, but Israeli authorities in February arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military operations in Iran on Polymarket.
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