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Pierre Andurand posts blockbuster gains after bet on rising oil prices

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Pierre Andurand posts blockbuster gains after bet on rising oil prices

Pierre Andurand is amongst a bunch of hedge fund managers who’ve notched up sharp positive aspects in current weeks as fears of worldwide provide disruptions despatched commodity costs hovering to the very best stage in 14 years.

Andurand’s Discretionary Enhanced hedge fund has posted positive aspects of round 109 per cent within the yr to early March after betting that crude oil costs would rise, based on individuals accustomed to the fund’s efficiency. Different funds, together with Kenneth Tropin’s Graham Capital and Paris-based CFM, have additionally profited from large strikes in power costs.

The positive aspects by Andurand, who manages round $1.1bn, come throughout a frenetic yr in commodities markets. Oil costs have soared by about 50 per cent because the finish of 2021, whereas a broad basket of uncooked supplies tracked by the S&P GSCI index is up by a 3rd to its highest stage since 2008. The positive aspects accelerated sharply in current weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine and the west hit Moscow by imposing unprecedented sanctions. Russia is a significant provider of oil, gasoline and — together with Ukraine — grains similar to wheat.

“Traders who’re lengthy commodities — whether or not by luck or talent — have had an excellent yr packed into a couple of weeks,” mentioned Andrew Beer, managing member at Dynamic Beta Investments. The DBMF fund that he co-manages is up by round 11 per cent up to now this yr, with crude oil being by far the largest contributor to positive aspects.

Andurand’s income mark the most recent right name for the previous BlueGold dealer, who additionally chalked up massive returns in 2020 when he predicted oil costs might flip destructive. Andurand Capital declined to touch upon efficiency this yr.

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Betting on increased oil and gasoline costs has additionally been a well-liked commerce in current months amongst computer-driven hedge funds. Many of those use algorithms to detect after which latch on to creating value developments in international monetary markets.

Power costs had already began rising as international economies rebounded from coronavirus-induced lockdowns, prompting a lot of hedge funds to take bullish positions even earlier than Russian president Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24. A mannequin portfolio run by Société Générale, which tracks the positions such funds could take, has been working bets on rising crude and heating oil for greater than two months.

Funds monitoring different buying and selling indicators, as an illustration the provision of oil or differentials within the value of crude for supply now or nicely into the longer term, have been additionally largely betting on increased costs.

“The indicators have been very, very bullish [even before the Russian conflict] . . . you had virtually each issue contributing” to a bullish sign for power positioning, mentioned Pablo Calderini, president and chief funding officer at Connecticut-based Graham Capital, which manages round $15bn in belongings.

He pointed to the reopening of economies after the pandemic and the truth that oil costs for supply within the close to future have been increased than costs additional out, which is historically an indication that oil costs will strengthen.

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On February 23, the day earlier than the invasion of Ukraine, quant funds wagering on market developments have been working “very excessive” bets on rising commodity costs after growing their positions earlier within the month, mentioned Cedric Vuignier, head of liquid various managed funds and analysis at SYZ Capital.

Graham’s Tactical Pattern fund was up 11.4 per cent within the first two months of the yr, based on a letter to traders, pushed by strikes in commodities, whereas its Quant Macro fund was up 4.7 per cent.

Different funds to revenue this yr embrace CFM, which manages $8.5bn in belongings. Its Discus fund, which makes use of a spread of market indicators, is up 15 per cent in 2022, with a big portion of positive aspects coming from power costs, mentioned an individual accustomed to its positioning.

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London-based Facet Capital, which manages greater than $9bn in belongings, has gained 8.6 per cent in its predominant Diversified fund this yr. Its largest guess on rising costs was within the power house, based on an investor letter seen by the Monetary Occasions, and it profited from positive aspects within the value of oil and associated merchandise. Leda Braga’s Systematica, in the meantime, has added 11 per cent in its BlueTrend fund this yr, helped by positions in commodities.

Funds have additionally profited from rising power costs by buying and selling different forms of belongings. Makuria Funding Administration, headed by Mans Larsson, the previous head of Canyon Capital’s London workplace, gained almost 12 per cent final month, based on an investor letter. That was helped by positions in firms concerned within the transition to inexperienced power and the provision of metals similar to copper, a key metallic in enhancing power effectivity and decreasing carbon emissions.

“We’re within the early phases of a long-duration structural bull market in power commodities and ‘inexperienced metals’ that can seemingly final for many years,” wrote Larsson within the letter.

laurence.fletcher@ft.com

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How Jimmy Carter Launched His Career and Cemented His Legacy in Atlanta

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How Jimmy Carter Launched His Career and Cemented His Legacy in Atlanta

The mythology of Jimmy Carter begins and ends in Plains, the small Georgia town that raised him and kept drawing him back.

Yet roughly 150 miles away is Atlanta, a city just as essential to understanding the life of the 39th president. If Plains was his home, Georgia’s capital was his stage. If Plains reflected Mr. Carter’s small-town character, Atlanta fit his global ambitions.

While it was never a permanent home, Atlanta allowed him to develop policy priorities and kick off a national political career. Then, after leaving Washington, it gave him the space to burnish a humanitarian legacy, housing his efforts to promote equality, peace and democratic ideals.

Now, because Mr. Carter and his wife, Rosalynn, chose to place the Carter Center, their presidential library and the crown jewel of their post-presidential work, in the city, it is where hundreds of visitors will shuffle through the cold to pay their respects while he lies in repose through Tuesday.

“It would have been inconceivable to put everything in Atlanta and to move to Atlanta, because that’s not where they’re from, that’s not who they are,” Jason Carter, Mr. Carter’s grandson, said in an interview. But, he added, “the platform that was available to them in Atlanta was going to be exactly what they needed to have this global jumping-off point.”

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Mr. Carter was undeniably shaped by the years he spent in youth on his father’s peanut farm. But beginning with his campaign to serve in the State Senate, he sought to bridge what was often a yawning divide between the rural region where he grew up and the urban engine of the state.

The effort helped shape a career that played out equally on large public stages like Atlanta and more intimate and personal ones like Plains.

“He could relate to people who did not have voices in those big rooms,” said Shannon Heath-Longino, who recounted how Mr. Carter listened to Eva Davis, her grandmother and a champion for revitalizing the East Lake neighborhood of Atlanta, about her vision. He even went to Washington with her to help secure crucial housing funds, she said.

“We had not had the best relationship with political leaders and people being people of their word once they’re elected,” she added. “He was just a man of his word.”

There are the obvious personal influences of the big city. The younger Mr. Carter joked that his grandfather may never have had a Pepsi, given the Coca-Cola headquarters in Atlanta, and always tried to take his commercial flights through Delta Air Lines, in a nod to its prominence in the city.

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And there was his rain-or-shine devotion to the Atlanta Braves. Mr. Carter and his wife often attended games and were on occasion caught on the kiss cam that panned over the home crowd.

“He would sit there in the rain and cheer the team on — and he was a die-hard fan, a real fan,” said Terry McGuirk, the chairman of the Braves. He added that Mr. Carter had perhaps “the purest love of the game that I have ever seen out of a president.”

But as a political figure who grew his influence in Atlanta, he helped shape its growth and many of the people who would go on to lead or represent the city and the ideals it valued.

As a state senator, Mr. Carter voted to establish the city’s main public transportation authority and later, as governor, oversaw a sales tax increase to help fund its growth and operations. He overhauled the state government, oversaw new mental health and education policies and established a judicial nominating commission.

He “diversified government,” said Dr. Meredith Evans, the director of the president’s library and museum, by elevating women and people of color into positions of power.

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“His door was always open — and people sought his counsel in Atlanta,” she added, calling it “a quiet force.”

Mr. Carter was also instrumental in preserving the legacies of some of Atlanta’s most important figures, including Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. He hung a portrait of the civil rights icon in the Capitol gallery during his term as governor. As president, he designated Dr. King’s home and neighborhood a national historic site and helped raise millions of dollars to help fulfill the King family’s ambitions of building the King Center.

“He laid that foundation to make that recognition,” recalled Dr. Bernice King, the daughter of Dr. King and chief executive of the King Center. She added, “these partners, relationships, working together have really made Atlanta a world class city — I don’t think it could have happened without the alignment of the King family and President Carter.”

After his single term in the White House, it quickly became clear that Mr. Carter, who was 56 at the time, would return to his home state.

“He wasn’t the kind of person who’s going to move into a mansion in Atlanta and tap into corporate boards,” said Sheffield Hale, the president and chief executive of the Atlanta History Center. But, Mr. Hale added, “he was deeply rooted in Georgia.”

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His devotion to Plains and frugal inclinations meant he spent years sleeping on a pullout couch or Murphy bed during his regular visits to Atlanta. But he still honed connections with Emory University, where he would serve on faculty, team up with the school to open the Carter Center and frequently lecture. (Mr. Carter earned tenure after 37 years, at 94.)

He also helmed the Atlanta Project, a plan to address housing, unemployment and other problems in the city, ahead of the 1996 Olympics.

“Being a relatively young man when he left the presidency and determined, as he was, to make the most of the gifts he’d been given and the opportunities he’d been given, Plains was not going to be a big enough of a landscape for President Carter and his ambitions,” said Joe Crespino, an Emory University history professor. He added that his students frequently peppered the former president with questions based on his papers.

The placement of the Carter Center — which houses a traditional presidential library in tandem with a private organization focused on health care and peace — cemented the former president’s connection to Atlanta. (Dr. Evans, of the Carter library, noted that the easy logistics of the city helped overtake Mr. Carter’s initial vision to put the library in Plains.)

Its permanent location was not without conflict, as the initial plans for the center included building a new highway — decades after Mr. Carter, as governor, had opposed similar construction. A coalition of neighborhoods fought against the new parkway until a compromise was struck, one that led to both the creation of the center and about 200 acres of greenery for what is now Freedom Park.

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In a symbol of its importance, the center is now the centerpiece of the tributes to Mr. Carter in Georgia, with flowers and jars of peanuts left at its entrance. The family made a point of holding its first full service there in Atlanta on Saturday, before mourners arrived to pay respects.

“He was a great neighbor, a tremendous friend,” said Brian Maloof, who still owns Manuel’s Tavern, the Atlanta bar where Mr. Carter announced his campaign for governor and continued to visit over the years. “We’re going to miss him.”

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Chinese venture capitalists force failed founders on to debtor blacklist

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Chinese venture capitalists force failed founders on to debtor blacklist

Chinese venture capitalists are hounding failed founders, pursuing personal assets and adding them to a national debtor blacklist when they fail to pay up, in moves that are throwing the country’s start-up funding ecosystem into crisis.

The hard-nosed tactics by risk capital providers have been facilitated by clauses known as redemption rights, included in nearly all the financing deals struck during China’s boom times.

“My investors verbally promised they wouldn’t enforce them, that they had never enforced them before — and in ’17 and ’18 that was true — no one was enforcing them,” said Neuroo Education founder Wang Ronghui, who now owes investors millions of dollars after her childcare chain stumbled during the pandemic.

While they are relatively rare in US venture investing, Shanghai-based law firm Lifeng Partners estimates that more than 80 per cent of venture and private equity deals in China contain redemption provisions.

They typically require companies, and often their founders as well, to buy back investors’ shares plus interest if certain targets such as an initial public offering timeline, valuation goals or revenue metrics are not met.

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“It’s causing huge harm to the venture ecosystem because if a start-up fails, the founder is essentially facing asset seizures and spending restrictions,” said a Hangzhou-based lawyer who has represented several indebted entrepreneurs and asked not to be named. “They can never recover.”

Lifeng, in its recent report on redemption rights, said they had turned entrepreneurship into a “game of unlimited liability”. In 90 per cent of investor lawsuits, the firm said, founders were named as defendants alongside companies, with 10 per cent of the individuals ultimately added to China’s debtor blacklist.

Once blacklisted, it is nearly impossible for individuals to start another business. They are also blocked from a range of economic activities, such as taking planes or high-speed trains, staying in hotels or leaving China. The country lacks a personal bankruptcy law, making it extremely difficult for most to escape the debts.

With Chinese funds and VC firms now struggling to return capital to their outside investors, a growing number have turned to redemption clauses to recoup as much money as possible. Lifeng estimates that 20 per cent of all investor exits in 2021 and 2022 came from companies repurchasing their investors’ shares and that more than 10,000 VC or private equity-backed Chinese groups face redemption issues.

A start-up adviser who did not wish to be named said the situation was perversely incentivising VCs to pursue portfolio companies that were doing well but lacked an immediate path to a sale or an IPO.

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“VCs are putting pressure on the start-ups that can pay,” he said. “It’s not venture — it’s debt.”

The number of entrepreneurs caught up by the legal actions continues to grow. They include Wang Ziru, who a decade ago grabbed attention as a brash young founder and raised tens of millions of renminbi for his tech media and review platform Zealer.

By 2021, with traffic waning, Wang left for an executive role at home appliance giant Gree. Then, on August 9 last year, a Shenzhen court hit the 36-year-old with spending restrictions for failing to pay a Zealer investor Rmb34mn ($4.7mn), an amount that had snowballed with interest from the VC’s initial Rmb19mn equity investment, according to a lawyer briefed on the case. Wang lost his job a few days later.

The founder is contesting the judgment and said on social media he was not notified of the lawsuit and that the deal’s redemption provision was not triggered.

Wang Ziru’s spending restriction order from a Shenzhen court

One of China’s most famous entrepreneurs, Luo Yonghao, turned his struggle to repay debts from his failed smartphone start-up Smartisan into a spectacle, eventually hawking enough iPhones and office chairs in online video livestreams to pay off suppliers and remove his name from the debtor blacklist in 2020.

Then some of Smartisan’s investors came demanding Luo pay hundreds of millions more in renminbi to buy back their shares.

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“Investment is not a loan,” Luo wrote on the social media platform Weibo in August last year. “When a venture capital deal fails, one must accept the outcome. Those who resort to underhanded tactics against entrepreneurs because they can’t bear the result are, without a doubt, unscrupulous capitalists.”

The cases have filled Chinese courts. Records show Xu Mingqi lost his company and all of his other identifiable assets to investors after his materials group Yeagood failed to meet a promised three-year window for an IPO.

China’s supreme court in 2021 ruled that since his wife Zheng Shaoai had also worked at Yeagood, one investor could seize communal property including the apartment held in her name.

Wang, the 47-year-old childcare chain founder, has even had funds in her health insurance account seized by investors. She said her problems began in 2021, when funds connected to state-backed investor Guangdong Cultural Investment Management demanded their Rmb16mn of shares be repurchased with interest because her start-up had failed to attain a Rmb500mn valuation.

Their lawsuit torpedoed a funding round needed to offset pandemic-related closures of the group’s 36 day care centres, she said. Now, Wang owes about Rmb30mn to the GCIM-affiliated funds, Rmb11mn to banks and potentially more to other investors whose redemption clauses have yet to be triggered.

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GCIM did not respond to a request for comment.

“I built my company into an industry leader — I have ability and I have drive — but every path I try to take is a dead end,” said Wang. “An unexpected turn of events has left me permanently and utterly trapped.”

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Coldest air so far this season expected overnight in North Texas

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Coldest air so far this season expected overnight in North Texas
Coldest air so far this season expected overnight in North Texas – CBS Texas

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The National Weather Service has issued a Cold Weather Advisory that will stay in effect until 10 a.m. Monday. Be sure to bundle up.

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