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Opinion: Putin can cling on to power, but his legend is dead | CNN

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Opinion: Putin can cling on to power, but his legend is dead | CNN

Editor’s Observe: Mark Galeotti is the manager director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence and an honorary professor at College Faculty London. He’s the creator of a number of books on Russian historical past, most lately “Putin’s Wars: from Chechnya to Ukraine.” The views expressed on this commentary are his personal. View extra opinion on CNN.



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Regardless of some frenzied hypothesis round Russia’s lack of the occupied Ukrainian area of Kherson this week, it’s nonetheless too quickly to foretell when and the way President Vladimir Putin will give up energy – whether or not it will likely be as a result of he’s ousted, retires or just dies in workplace.

Nonetheless, what we are able to already see are among the processes which can form and immediate that departure. Extra to the purpose, even clinging on to energy, Putin won’t ever stay as much as the picture he had created for himself.

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Particularly within the early months of the conflict, there was a lot excited hypothesis about his well being, with claims that he had the whole lot from blood most cancers to Parkinson’s. A lot of this has subsided, particularly because the puffy facet and odd twitches that had been fixed upon as proof appear to have handed.

It was unsurprising that this might appeal to such curiosity, providing one thing of a deus ex machina for Western governments looking forward to a fast resolution to the dilemmas of the battle.

Nonetheless, in accordance with US intelligence officers who’ve studied the query, whereas Putin could properly have recurring well being points – he has lengthy been identified to endure from again issues and should even be affected by a situation that has compromised his immune system, explaining the intense measures taken to protect him from Covid-19 – there isn’t any signal of something prone to result in his imminent dying or incapacity.

But he’s 70, and his well being actually has develop into an existential query for the system. In any case, whereas the Russian structure stipulates what occurs if he dies in workplace – the prime minister steps in as interim president till early elections might be held – there isn’t any provision in case he’s incapacitated for any substantial size of time, neither is there a vp in a position to stand in for him.

That is precisely the type of political disaster which could generate an intra-elite battle, which may deliver down this regime.

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In any case, for now, the possibilities of a palace coup are scarcely better than these of Putin being toppled by protests within the streets. A number of safety forces steadiness one another: in Moscow, for instance, the navy garrison, a particular division of the Nationwide Guard and the Kremlin Regiment, all report back to completely different chains of command. The Federal Safety Service watches all three – and the Federal Safety Service in flip watch them.

As long as Putin is ready to management the heads of those so-called “energy ministries” and so they command the loyalties of their businesses, he appears onerous to topple.

Nonetheless, for all he seems firmly in management, what is going on is that his system is changing into more and more brittle, shedding the assets which up to now have supplied the resilience to answer sudden challenges.

Clearly, this implies monetary assets. As sanctions chew and the prices of conflict escalate, cash is getting tighter. Virtually a 3rd of the 2023 finances (greater than 9 trillion out of a complete 29 trillion rubles) will go in the direction of protection and safety. This leaves proportionately much less to help regional budgets and maintain struggling industries afloat.

Nonetheless, it additionally means weakened legitimacy and the goodwill of the safety companies and native elites. Putin’s approval scores have all the time been artificially excessive, on condition that there isn’t any significant opposition for him to be measured in opposition to, however they’re nonetheless falling.

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The Nationwide Guard, the important thing power charged with controlling protests within the streets, has been decimated combating in Ukraine. Members of the Nationwide Guard are additionally indignant that they had been used as cannon fodder in a conflict for which glorified riot police had been neither trained nor equipped.

In the meantime, whereas the grumbling inside the elite stays rigorously muted, it’s evident. Simply as he did throughout Covid-19, Putin is dumping the onerous and unpopular work of elevating “volunteer battalions” and preserving the conflict financial system working onto his regional mayors and governors. Whereas some, like St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov, have seized this as a chance to courtroom Putin’s approval, many others are quietly appalled.

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All this makes predicting the way forward for Putin and his regime much more troublesome. Even brittle and stagnating regimes can maintain on for a very long time. Tsarist Russia was arguably brain-dead by 1911, when the brutally reformist Prime Minister Petr Stolypin was assassinated, however it nonetheless lasted by three years of disaster within the First World Battle earlier than crumbling in 1917.

Nonetheless, it does imply that Putin’s state is far much less able to coping with the type of sudden crises which might be without delay onerous to foretell and but in the end inevitable. This could possibly be something from generalized rout in Ukraine to a cascading regional financial collapse at dwelling, the safety forces refusing to suppress protests on the streets or Putin falling significantly ailing.

In these circumstances, as in March 1917 (February by the previous Russian calendar), maybe the commander-in-chief can be confronted by his senior generals and politicians and induced to step down for the nice of the Motherland.

It appears onerous at current to think about such a situation, however in the primary the Russian elite, political and navy alike, will not be ‘Putinists’ however ruthless opportunists. They’ve supported Putin as a result of it’s of their pursuits; they proceed to remain loyal as a result of the dangers in opposing him for now very a lot appear better.

Nonetheless, in the event that they begin to consider that he’s susceptible, they are going to probably distance themselves from him at pace. Nobody desires to be the final loyalist of a doomed regime.

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No matter occurs, although, Putin’s desires of creating Russia as an excellent energy on the again of its navy energy are over, and so too are his ambitions of securing a legacy as one of many nation’s nice state-builders.

His navy machine is damaged; his nation’s financial system so scarred that it’s going to take years to get better; his popularity as a geopolitical mastermind in tatters. Putin-the-man should cling to energy for years, however Putin-the-legend is useless.

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Trump names Treasury adviser from first term to chair economic panel

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Trump names Treasury adviser from first term to chair economic panel

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Donald Trump has tapped Stephen Miran, an economist who served during his first term, to chair his Council of Economic Advisers.

With the nomination, the president-elect is seeking to elevate to a White House economic post not only a critic of Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell but one who has accused the Biden administration of manipulating the economy and “usurping” the central bank’s role.

“Steve will work with the rest of my Economic Team to deliver a Great Economic Boom that lifts up all Americans,” Trump said in a statement on Sunday.

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Miran was a senior adviser for economic policy at the Treasury department in the first Trump administration.

Currently a senior strategist at hedge fund Hudson Bay Capital Management, he said he was honoured. “I look forward to working to help implement the President’s policy agenda to create a booming, noninflationary economy that brings prosperity to all Americans!” he posted on X.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers is a three-person group that advises the president on economic policy.

Trump has threatened US trading partners, vowing to impose sweeping tariffs, including 25 per cent levies on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on China’s imports, on his first day in office.

On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to impose blanket levies of 20 per cent on all US imports, as well as tariffs of 60 per cent on those from China, suggesting his second-term policies could be more protectionist and disruptive to the global economy and markets than his first.

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The president-elect has also pledged to renew tax cuts he enacted during his first spell in the White House.

Earlier this year, Miran co-wrote a paper accusing Biden’s Treasury department of manipulating the economy during the election, arguing the government’s dependence on short-term debt amounted to “stealth quantitative easing and impedes the Fed’s ability to fight inflation.

“By adjusting the maturity profile of its debt issuance, Treasury is dynamically managing financial conditions and, through them, the economy, usurping core functions of the Federal Reserve”, he wrote with economist Nouriel Roubini.

“We dub this novel tool ‘activist Treasury issuance,’ or ATI. By manipulating the amount of interest-rate risk owned by investors, ATI works through the same channels as the Fed’s quantitative easing programs.”

In FT Alphaville last year, Miran co-authored a piece warning against the perils of a two-tier bond market, which “would impair Treasuries’ ability to serve as risk-free collateral underpinning the global financial system” and bring to the US the chaos of a defaulting emerging economy.

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Miran has also hit out at Powell for urging more aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus in October 2020, about a month before that year’s election, to aid the economic recovery amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Powell was wrong politically and economically when he urged Congress to ‘go big’ on fiscal stimulus in October of 2020, on the eve of a Presidential election, suggesting that voters favour Democrats’ $3 trillion proposals over Republicans’ $500 billion”, Miran wrote on X in September. “We know what happened next.”

Miran must be confirmed by the US Senate.

Last month, Trump named Kevin Hassett as chair of the National Economic Council.

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Review by Senate Democrats finds more unreported luxury trips by Clarence Thomas

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Review by Senate Democrats finds more unreported luxury trips by Clarence Thomas

The Supreme Court is pictured on Oct. 7 in Washington, D.C.

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WASHINGTON — A nearly two-year investigation by Democratic senators of Supreme Court ethics details more luxury travel by Justice Clarence Thomas and urges Congress to establish a way to enforce a new code of conduct.

Any movement on the issue appears unlikely as Republicans prepare to take control of the Senate in January, underscoring the hurdles in imposing restrictions on a separate branch of government even as public confidence in the court has fallen to record lows.

The 93-page report released Saturday by the Democratic majority of the Senate Judiciary Committee found additional travel taken in 2021 by Thomas but not reported on his annual financial disclosure form: a private jet flight to New York’s Adirondacks in July and jet and yacht trip to New York City sponsored by billionaire Harlan Crow in October, one of more than two dozen times detailed in the report that Thomas took luxury travel and gifts from wealthy benefactors.

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The court adopted its first code of ethics in 2023, but it leaves compliance to each of the nine justices.

“The highest court in the land can’t have the lowest ethical standards,” the committee chairman, Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, said in a statement. He has long called for an enforceable code of ethics.

Republicans protested the subpoenas authorized for Crow and others as part of the investigation. No Republicans signed on to the final report, and no formal report from them was expected.

A spokesman for Crow said he voluntarily agreed to provide information for the investigation, which did not pinpoint any specific instances of undue influence. Crow said in a statement that Thomas and his wife Ginni had been unfairly maligned. “They are good and honorable people and no one should be treated this way,” he said.

Attorney Mark Paoletta, a longtime friend of Thomas who has been tapped for the incoming Trump administration, said the report was aimed at conservatives whose rulings Democrats disagreed with.

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“This entire investigation was never about ‘ethics’ but about trying to undermine the Supreme Court,” Paoletta said in a statement posted on X.

The court did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Thomas has said he was not required to disclose the trips that he and his wife took with Crow because the big donor is a close friend of the family and disclosure of that type of travel was not previously required. The new ethics code does explicitly require it, and Thomas has since gone back and reported some travel.

The report traces back to Justice Antonin Scalia, saying he “established the practice” of accepting undisclosed gifts and hundreds of trips over his decades on the bench. The late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg and retired Justice Stephen Breyer also took subsided trips but disclosed them on their annual forms, it said.

The investigation found that Thomas has accepted gifts and travel from wealthy benefactors worth more than $4.75 million by some estimates since his 1991 confirmation and failed to disclose much of it. “The number, value, and extravagance of the gifts accepted by Justice Thomas have no comparison in modern American history,” according to the report.

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It also detailed a 2008 luxury trip to Alaska taken by Justice Samuel Alito. He has said he was exempted from disclosing the trip under previous ethical rules.

Alito also declined calls to withdraw from cases involving Donald Trump or the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol after flags associated with the riot were seen flying at two of Alito’s homes. Alito has said the flags were raised by this wife.

Thomas has ignored calls to step aside from cases involving Trump, too. Ginni Thomas supported Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election that the Republican lost to Democrat Joe Biden.

The report also pointed to scrutiny of Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who, aided by her staff, has advanced sales of her books through college visits over the past decade. Justices have also heard cases involving their book publishers, or involving companies in which justices owned stock.

Biden has been the most prominent Democrat calling for a binding code of conduct. Justice Elena Kaganhas publicly backed adopting an enforcement mechanism, though some ethics experts have said it could be legally tricky.

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Justice Neil Gorsuch recently cited the code when he recused himself from an environmental case. He had been facing calls to step aside because the outcome could stand to benefit a Colorado billionaire whom Gorsuch represented before becoming a judge.

The report also calls for changes in the Judicial Conference, the federal courts’ oversight body led by Chief Justice John Roberts, and further investigation by Congress.

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Sweden criticises China for refusing full access to vessel suspected of Baltic Sea cable sabotage

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Sweden criticises China for refusing full access to vessel suspected of Baltic Sea cable sabotage

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Sweden has sharply criticised China for refusing to allow the Nordic country’s main investigator on board a Chinese vessel suspected of severing two cables in the Baltic Sea.

The Yi Peng 3 sailed away from its mooring in international waters between Denmark and Sweden on Saturday, and appears to be heading for Egypt after Chinese investigators boarded the ship on Thursday.

The Chinese team had allowed representatives from Sweden, Germany, Finland and Denmark on board as observers, but did not permit access for Henrik Söderman, the Swedish public prosecutor, according to authorities in Stockholm.

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“It is something the government inherently takes seriously. It is remarkable that the ship leaves without the prosecutor being given the opportunity to inspect the vessel and question the crew within the framework of a Swedish criminal investigation,” foreign minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said in comments provided to the Financial Times.

The Swedish government had put pressure on Chinese authorities for the bulk carrier to move from international waters into Swedish territory to allow a full investigation over the severing of Swedish-Lithuanian and Finnish-German data cables last month.

People close to the probe said the boarding of the vessel on Thursday had shown there was little doubt it was involved in the incident.

Yi Peng 3 belongs to Ningbo Yipeng Shipping, a company that owns only one other vessel and is based near the eastern Chinese port city of Ningbo. A representative of Ningbo Yipeng told the FT in November that “the government has asked the company to co-operate with the investigation”, but did not answer further questions.

There is a split among countries over the motivation behind the cutting of the cables. Some people close to the investigation said they believed it was bad seamanship that may have led to the Yi Peng 3’s anchor dragging along the seabed in the Baltic Sea.

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However, other governments have said privately that they suspect Russia was behind the damage and may have paid money to the ship’s crew.

The severing of the two cables was the second time in 13 months that a Chinese ship has damaged infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.

The Newnew Polar Bear, a Chinese container ship, damaged a gas pipeline in October 2023 by dragging its anchor along the bottom of the Baltic Sea for a considerable distance during a storm. Officials reacted slowly to that incident, allowing the vessel to leave the region without stopping, something that they were keen to prevent in the case of the Yi Peng 3.

Nordic and Baltic officials are sceptical about the possibility of the same thing occurring twice in quick succession. “The Chinese must be truly dreadful captains if this keeps on happening innocently,” said one Baltic minister.

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