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Oil market shrugs off fears of wider war after Iranian strike on Israel

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Oil market shrugs off fears of wider war after Iranian strike on Israel

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Oil prices were muted as markets reopened following Iran’s military strike on Israel, as traders shrugged off fears the conflict could escalate into a full-blown war and curb supplies from the region.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, was flat at $90.45 a barrel as trading began in Asia on Monday morning. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, was also broadly unchanged at $85.72 a barrel.

The subdued reaction suggested markets were betting that the fallout from the strike would be contained after Iran said it considered the matter “concluded” and Washington sought to de-escalate tensions.

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Traders had been anxiously watching to see how the market would react after the Islamic republic launched its first-ever strike on Israel from its own territory on Saturday. Tehran sent drones and missiles into the Jewish state in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus that killed several military commanders.

Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said the calibrated nature of the attacks and the fact that they were well telegraphed had eased market concerns.

“We had a build-up in the oil price before the weekend and so a geopolitical price premium was already built in prior to this event,” he said.

US President Joe Biden has urged Israel to take a measured approach in its response. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet met on Sunday but has not made a decision on how the country will react.

In a statement on Saturday, Iran’s permanent mission to the UN said: “The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe.”

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Experts warned that a severe response from Israel could ratchet up the conflict, restricting oil supplies from the region and pushing up prices.

“A significant Israeli retaliation could trigger a destabilising retaliatory cycle and move this conflict up the escalation ladder,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets and a former CIA analyst. “In such a scenario, we think the risk to oil is not insignificant.”

She added: “While Iran lacks the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz, they seemingly retain the capacity to replicate the 2019 playbook of attacking tankers, pipelines and critical energy infrastructure.”

Oil markets had climbed to their highest level since October in recent weeks following the attack on Damascus as markets weighed the potential for an escalation of the conflict that could affect Gulf supplies.

Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former energy adviser to George W Bush, said the fallout from the strike could still propel prices “towards, if not beyond, $100 per barrel”.

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“The market had been complacent about the Gaza conflict expanding to include Iran and, therefore, a material risk to Arabian Gulf oil and [liquefied natural gas] production and exports,” he said.

An exacerbation of the conflict risks shocking an already tight oil market globally as demand escalates in big economies such as the US and China while Opec+ producers constrain supply.

“The US and China stand to lose from the conflict’s expansion as it would significantly impact on energy exports from the region, the price of oil, and the global economy,” said Ayham Kamel, practice head for the Middle East and north Africa region at consultancy Eurasia group.

Any spike in prices would come at a particularly delicate moment for the US president, who has struggled to sell his economic record to voters ahead of November’s election amid stubbornly high inflation.

A further rise in crude prices threaten to exacerbate already-elevated prices at the pump months before Americans head to the polls. Average US petrol prices sit at $3.63 a gallon, according to the AAA motoring group, up about 15 per cent since the start of the year.

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“It’s hard to overstate how unwelcome a geopolitically driven oil price spike would be for both the economy and President Biden’s re-election,” said McNally.

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Eastern. The New York Times

A minor, 2.3-magnitude earthquake struck about 12 miles north of New York City on Tuesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 10:17 a.m. Eastern in Sleepy Hollow, N.Y., data from the agency shows.

The Westchester County emergency services department said in a statement that it had not received any reports of damage.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Eastern. Shake data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 2:18 p.m. Eastern.

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Ed Martin, outspoken Justice Department lawyer, is formally accused of ethical violations | CNN Politics

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Ed Martin, outspoken Justice Department lawyer, is formally accused of ethical violations | CNN Politics

Ed Martin, an outspoken Trump administration official, is facing attorney discipline proceedings in Washington, DC, for a letter he sent to Georgetown Law about its diversity programs, the district’s professional conduct investigator announced on Tuesday.

Martin is formally accused of violating his ethical codes as an attorney for telling Georgetown Law’s dean last year that his Justice Department office wouldn’t hire students because of the school’s diversity, inclusion and equity initiatives programs, according to the filing from Hamilton Fox, the disciplinary counsel for DC who acts as a quasi-prosecutor on attorney discipline matters.

Unlike unsolicited complaints, Fox’s formal disciplinary complaint kicks off professional conduct proceedings for Martin in which he will need to respond and could be sanctioned or ultimately lose his law license.

Fox’s announcement on Tuesday marks the first major bar discipline proceeding against a high-profile administration official or attorney supporting President Donald Trump during Trump’s second term. Several Trump lawyers faced disciplinary proceedings after the efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election, including Rudy Giuliani, who lost his law license.

“Acting in his official capacity and speaking on behalf of the government, he used coercion to punish or suppress a disfavored viewpoint, the teaching and promotion of ‘DEI,’” Fox wrote in the complaint. “He demanded that Georgetown Law relinquish its free speech and religious rights in order to continue to obtain a benefit, employment opportunities for its students.”

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Martin was removed from the top prosecutor job in DC after senators made clear he would not be confirmed to the role, but has remained at the Justice Department in several roles, including as pardon attorney.

“Mr. Martin knew or should have known that, as a government official, his conduct violated the First and Fifth Amendments to the Constitution of the United States,” Fox wrote.

Martin is being represented by a Justice Department attorney, a source told CNN.

A spokesperson for DOJ attacked Fox’s complaint. “The DC bar’s attempt to target and punish those serving President Trump while refusing to investigate or act against actual ethical violations that were committed by Biden and Obama administration attorneys is a clear indication of this partisan organization’s agenda,” DOJ said.

Martin had sent the letter to Georgetown Law while serving temporarily as US attorney for DC, a prominent Justice Department position, and told the school his federal prosecutors’ office wouldn’t hire Georgetown’s law school students. It came at a time when the Trump administration was beginning to crack down on universities for their DEI efforts.

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In his letter, Martin claimed a whistleblower told him that the school was teaching and promoting DEI.

Martin also violated attorney ethics rules by contacting judges of the DC court directly, Fox alleged, rather than going through official channels, once he was informed he was under investigation for his professional conduct. The DC Court of Appeals ultimately signs off on attorney discipline findings.

Early last year, Fox’s office had formally asked Martin to respond to a complaint it received by a retired judge regarding the Georgetown letter.

Martin instead wrote to the judges on the DC court complaining about Fox.

“In that letter, he stated that he would not be responding to Disciplinary Counsel’s inquiry, complained about Disciplinary Counsel’s ‘uneven behavior,’ and requested a ‘face-to-face meeting with all of you to discuss this matter and find a way forward,’” Fox wrote.

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“He copied the White House Counsel ‘for informational purposes because of the importance of getting this issue addressed,’” Fox said.

The top judge in the DC courts told Martin the court wouldn’t meet with him about the disciplinary matter and that he would need to follow procedure.

With Fox’s complaint, there will now be several steps ahead of bar discipline authorities looking at Martin’s action, and Fox didn’t specify how Martin should be reprimanded or punished if the discipline boards and the court ultimately determine he violated his ethical codes.

Spokespeople for the Justice Department didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment on Tuesday morning.

In recent days, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her office would have a more powerful role in reviewing attorney discipline complaints against Justice Department attorneys, potentially setting up an approach that could keep the department at odds with the bar on behalf of DOJ attorneys facing their own individual disciplinary proceedings.

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CNN’s Paula Reid contributed to this report.

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Europe and Asia battle for LNG as Iran war chokes supply

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Europe and Asia battle for LNG as Iran war chokes supply

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Asian and European buyers are battling to source liquefied natural gas after the war in the Middle East choked off shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, blocking a fifth of global supplies.

In an indication of the intensifying contest for LNG since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, a handful of gas carriers have abruptly changed course while sailing to Europe and swung towards Asia instead, according to ship monitoring data analysed by the FT.

Countries across Asia are highly dependent on oil and gas sent through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway where shipping has slowed to a near standstill.

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Most of the LNG produced in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates is ordinarily shipped through the strait to Asia, and Asian LNG prices surged almost immediately after war broke out, creating an incentive to divert US gas to the region.

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Taiwan, South Korea and Japan are among the countries that need to source LNG to make up for supplies they will not receive from the Gulf, said Massimo Di Odoardo, head of gas and LNG analysis at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Taiwan relied on Qatar for more than 30 per cent of its gas consumption in 2025, according to Citigroup, while for South Korea and Japan the figures were 15 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. Asia typically uses more gas than Europe in the hotter summer months because of more air-conditioning use, creating urgency for Asian utilities to secure cargoes.

The vast majority of LNG is sold under long-term contracts rather than on the spot market, but some buyers are able to change the final destination of their purchases and some sellers are willing to break contracts if prices rise high enough.

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By Thursday, surging European gas prices and rocketing shipping rates had swung the balance back against diversion of US LNG to Asia, according to data company Spark Commodities.

The decision on where to send gas carriers can depend on the relative levels of the European gas price, Asia’s JKM benchmark for LNG and shipping rates.

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For European buyers, the battle with Asia for LNG supplies is eerily familiar to the situation four years ago after Russia slashed pipeline natural gas flows to the continent following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Competition for spare cargoes then pushed prices to record levels.

On Monday, European gas prices reached as high as €69.50 per megawatt hour, more than double their level before the Iran conflict began. Even so, prices are still far from the €342 per megawatt hour reached in 2022.

JKM gas prices also more than doubled since the start of the war to $24.80 per 1mn British thermal units by Monday, equivalent to €73.10/MWh.

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European buyers have learnt from their experience in 2022. “Europe has more weapons at its disposal in this extreme price scenario to try and fight,” said Alex Kerr, a partner at law firm Baker Botts.

Buyers had started putting clauses in contracts to say that suppliers would face much higher penalties if they diverted cargoes for commercial gain, Kerr said.

There is also much more LNG on the market now that is not committed to set destinations, largely because of new projects starting in the US.

While producers such as Qatar impose strict rules on where its LNG can be sent, almost all US exports are allowed to sail wherever buyers want. Several analysts said there had also been an increase in the willingness of some producers to break contracts for financial advantage.

This makes diversions more likely, while the reluctance of some European buyers to sign long-term supply contracts before the outbreak of war this month could prove costly.

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Expectations of a global supply glut convinced some European buyers that it would be cheaper to wait until later in the year to sign supply deals.

Wood Mackenzie’s Di Odoardo said the buyers had also held off on LNG purchases because new EU legislation on methane emissions made it unclear whether they could incur penalties in the future.

The risk of prices rising as Europe and Asia fight for available cargoes is increasing every day the Strait of Hormuz stays almost closed.

Gas is more difficult to store and to carry in tankers than oil, making its markets more vulnerable to shortages and price shocks.

“The longer the Strait remains shut, the greater the risk that the shipping disruption turns into a genuine gas shortage, as tankers cannot load and facilities have limited storage,” said consultancy Oxford Economics in a research note.

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Additional reporting by Harry Dempsey in Tokyo. Data visualisation by Jana Tauschinski

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