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Military briefing: the Israeli missiles used to strike Iran

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Military briefing: the Israeli missiles used to strike Iran

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Mysterious wreckages photographed in Iraq have given the clearest indication yet of how Israel might have launched its counterstrike against Iran.

The pictures, scoured by military analysts and open-source intelligence enthusiasts, suggest that Israel may have used an air-launched Sparrow ballistic missile to demonstrate to Tehran that it can successfully attack targets inside the country at range.

One Israeli official also indicated that the country’s armed forces used a stand-off missile attack launched far from Iran’s borders. “Israel has informed its partners that the primary attack vectors were airborne, with no entry into (Iranian) airspace,” the official said.

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The exact combination of arms used in the counterstrike remains unclear, but it comes a week after Iran launched an unprecedented drone and missile salvo at Israel, itself a response to a suspected Israeli strike against Iran’s consulate in Damascus.

The missile segments, photographed and posted on social media by Sabereen News, an outlet linked to Iraqi Shia militias, were identified by some experts as most likely being the expended fuel propulsion units of Israeli-made Blue Sparrow missiles. Early Pentagon assessments pointed in the same direction, according to one person briefed on the work.

The Sparrow family of air-launched missiles have a range of up to 2,000km and could have been fired by Israeli fighter jets refuelled by tanker planes in Syrian airspace, according to OSINT analysts citing air flight data from late on Thursday.

Buttressing that theory, Syria’s Sana state news agency reported that Israeli missiles had targeted air defence positions in its southern region. Such a move would fit with Israel “clearing the air corridor in Syria for a stand-off strike on Iran”, said one former senior US defence official.

Opening a safe air raid corridor in Syria would in turn enable long-range attacks by Israeli fighter jets well outside Iranian airspace. As the Israeli missiles then flew east over Iraq, they would have jettisoned their fuel booster units, with the armed sections carrying on to their targets in Iran.

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Israel has not commented on the strike, as per its traditional policy of strategic ambiguity. The US has said it played no role. The International Atomic Energy Agency also said none of Iran’s nuclear sites were damaged.

Map showing how Israel might have launched its counterstrike against Iran.  Israeli missiles target air defence positions in southern Syria  Israeli aircraft refuel over Syria and launch missile(s) towards Iran  Missile fuel propulsion units jettisoned over Iraq and fall to ground  Missile warhead(s) carry on to targets in Iran

Iran has meanwhile downplayed what happened, with officials signalling there are no plans to respond. One Iranian official told the Financial Times that a limited number of missiles were part of the attack but said they were intercepted.

“There is a lot of uncertainty still,” said John Ridge, an OSINT analyst. “But Sparrow missiles most closely fit the mission parameters . . .[especially] of range.”

Sparrow missiles have three variants: the short-range Black Arrow, and the mid-range Blue and Silver Arrow versions. Blue Sparrow missiles have “performed flawlessly in its missions so far”, according to its producer, Israeli defence company Rafael.

Ridge added that another possible weapon used by Israel may have been Rocks missiles, an air-launched precision missile similar to the Sparrow. Both are made by Israeli defence tech group Rafael.

Initial reports from Iranian state media suggested that Israel may have also used small drones or quadcopters rather than missiles for the attack. Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said the “mini drones” that Israel reportedly launched at Iran “did not cause any damage or casualties”.

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That may be part of a deliberate Iranian strategy to play down the impact of the Israeli strike and the effectiveness of its long-range weapons. An Israeli drone strike also fits with previous covert Israeli operations inside Iran, which on at least two occasions have used drones to target weapons facilities.

Amos Yadlin, a former Israeli air force general and military intelligence chief, said that regardless of how Israel conducted the strike on Iran, the mere fact that it took place would send a powerful message.

“What the Iranians and their proxies did with hundreds of projectiles we did with just a handful of missiles,” he said. It shows Tehran that “you’re vulnerable, we have much greater capabilities than you think”.

Alleged Israeli munition and/or weapons platform that fell near Baghdad during Israeli strike on Isfahan
Part of a suspected Israeli missile found in Iraq. Israel’s forces are thought have jettisoned their fuel booster units over Iraq with the armed sections carrying on to their targets in Iran © Sabereen News/Telegram

Commenting on the Iraqi images of the fallen missile segments, Yadlin added that they looked like parts of an “armament that has never been used before, with long-range capabilities”. 

Israel originally developed Sparrow missiles to test the effectiveness of its Arrow air defence system, which is used to down incoming ballistic missiles. Israel subsequently manufactured a variant with a live warhead. Rocks missiles are a derivative version of the Sparrow.

Noting that the Israeli attack appeared to have struck a balance between showing the country’s military strength without provoking an Iranian response, the former senior US defence official praised its “impressive execution”.

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Further evidence came on Friday morning, when the Iraqi militias that photographed the expended missile segments declared on social media that they “were evidence of the great failure of the Zionist attack”.

Additional reporting by Raya Jalabi in Beirut, Mehul Srivastava in London and Felicia Schwartz in Capri

Illustration by Ian Bott and cartography by Steven Bernard

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Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP

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Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP

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The Supreme Court on Monday intervened in New York’s redistricting process, blocking a lower court decision that would likely have flipped a Republican congressional district into a Democratic district.    
  
At issue is the midterm redrawing of New York’s 11th congressional district, including Staten Island and a small part of Brooklyn. The district is currently held by a Republican, but on Jan. 21, a state Supreme Court judge ruled that the current district dilutes the power of Black and Latino voters in violation of the state constitution.  
  
GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, who represents the district, and the Republican co-chair of the state Board of Elections promptly appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the justices to block the redrawing as an unconstitutional “racial gerrymander.” New York’s congressional election cycle was set to officially begin Feb. 24, the opening day for candidates to seek placement on the ballot.  
  
As in this year’s prior mid-decade redistricting fights — in Texas and California — the Trump administration backed the Republicans.   
 
Voters and the State of New York contended it’s too soon for the Supreme Court to wade into this dispute. New York’s highest state court has not issued a final judgment, so the voters asserted that if the Supreme Court grants relief now “future stay applicants will see little purpose in waiting for state court rulings before coming to this Court” and “be rewarded for such gamesmanship.” The state argues this is an issue for “New York courts, not federal courts” to resolve, and there is sufficient time for the dispute to be resolved on the merits. 
  
The court majority explained the decision to intervene in 101 words, which the three dissenting liberal justices  summarized as “Rules for thee, but not for me.” 
 
The unsigned majority order does not explain the Court’s rationale. It says only how long the stay will last, until the case moves through the New York State appeals courts. If, however, the losing party petitions and the court agrees to hear the challenge, the stay extends until the final opinion is announced. 
 
Dissenting from the decision were Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Writing for the three, Sotomayor  said that  if nonfinal decisions of a state trial court can be brought to highest court, “then every decision from any court is now fair game.” More immediately, she noted, “By granting these applications, the Court thrusts itself into the middle of every election-law dispute around the country, even as many States redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 election.” 

Monday’s Supreme Court action deviates from the court’s hands-off pattern in these mid-term redistricting fights this year. In two previous cases — from Texas and California — the court refused to intervene, allowing newly drawn maps to stay in effect.  
  
Requests for Supreme Court intervention on redistricting issues has been a recurring theme this term, a trend that is likely to grow.  Earlier last month  the high court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map.  California’s redistricting came in response to a GOP-friendly redistricting plan in Texas that the Supreme Court also permitted to move forward. These redistricting efforts are expected to offset one another.     
   
But the high court itself has yet to rule on a challenge to Louisiana’s voting map, which was drawn by the state legislature after the decennial census in order to create a second majority-Black district.  Since the drawing of that second majority-black district, the state has backed away from that map, hoping to return to a plan that provides for only one majority-minority district.    
     
The Supreme Court’s consideration of the Louisiana case has stretched across two terms. The justices failed to resolve the case last term and chose to order a second round of arguments this term adding a new question: Does the state’s intentional creation of a second majority-minority district violate the constitution’s Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments’ guarantee of the right to vote and the authority of Congress to enforce that mandate?    
Following the addition of the new question, the state of Louisiana flipped positions to oppose the map it had just drawn and defended in court. Whether the Supreme Court follows suit remains to be seen. But the tone of the October argument suggested that the court’s conservative supermajority is likely to continue undercutting the 1965 Voting Rights Act.   

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

A minor earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 3.5 struck in Central California on Monday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 7:17 a.m. Pacific time about 6 miles northwest of Pinnacles, Calif., data from the agency shows.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Monday, March 2 at 10:20 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Monday, March 2 at 11:18 a.m. Eastern.

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

The U.S. and Israel have been conducting strikes against targets in Iran since Saturday morning, with the aim of toppling Tehran’s clerical regime. Iran has fired back, with retaliatory assaults featuring missiles and drones targeting several Gulf countries and American bases in the Middle East.

“All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” Central Command said.

“The cause of the incident is under investigation. Additional information will be released as it becomes available,” it added.

In a separate statement later Monday, Central Command said that American forces had been killed during combat since the strikes began.

“As of 7:30 am ET, March 2, four U.S. service members have been killed in action. The fourth service member, who was seriously wounded during Iran’s initial attacks, eventually succumbed to their injuries,” it said.

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Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification,” Central Command added.

This story has been updated.

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