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Investors only have themselves to blame as Jay Powell steals Christmas

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Investors only have themselves to blame as Jay Powell steals Christmas

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For markets, US Federal Reserve chief Jay Powell is the Grinch who stole Christmas. But the festive shakeout in bonds, currencies and stocks now under way in the wake of the US central bank’s latest pronouncements is a mini-crisis of investors’ own making.

Fed meetings, and the minutiae of its public statements, are always marquee events for investors, setting the tone across all major asset classes. Wednesday’s meeting, the last of 2024, always came with the potential for greater punch, given the timing — right on the cusp of Donald Trump’s second stint in the White House. 

The decision on rates itself — a quarter-point chop off the benchmark — was in line with expectations. But it went downhill from there, as the central bank’s apparent cooling on further cuts next year — an allusion to the potentially inflationary impact of Trump’s economic policies — has gone down like a mouldy mince pie.

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US stocks nosedived, wiping out almost all of the gains in the S&P 500 benchmark index since Trump’s re-election day. The following morning brought a similar sea of red across Asian and European stocks too. The dollar popped higher, sending the euro and yen tumbling awkwardly hard, and US government bonds weakened, sending the yield on 10-year Treasuries forcefully above 4.5 per cent.

The Fed chair is facing some flak here. His comment in the post-meeting press conference that the year-end projection for inflation has “kind of fallen apart” is not the sort of self-assertion that investors seek in a Fed chair, and the pick-up in some inflation measures comfortably predates the reinauguration of Trump.

But markets are going through the wringer in no small part because the consensus among investors about the next steps for markets had become so intense — curdling hard around the themes of American exceptionalism in stocks and the vanquishing of inflation keeping bonds well supported. The path to an easy run in markets in 2025 had become exceptionally narrow and extremely crowded with like-minded views, and it has taken only a gentle push from the Fed to tip that out of balance.

The annual spectacle of year-ahead market outlooks from the big banks and asset managers demonstrated a near-unanimous set of views. Deutsche Bank is towards the top of the pack with its assessment that the benchmark S&P 500 index of heavyweight US stocks will ascend to 7,000 by the end of next year. After the overnight shock, that projection is 20 per cent above where we are now. It is punchy, but not wildly out of line. Core fundamental differences of opinion are hard to find. “The degree of uniformity in year-ahead projections has broken all previous records,” notes TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins.

The trouble with that was two-fold. First, it meant much, if not all, of the narrative was already baked in. Second, crowding around core themes tends to exaggerate the scale of market reactions when stuff goes wrong. Enter Powell stage left.

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“Everyone’s portfolio is pointed towards US exceptionalism,” said Mike Riddell, a portfolio manager on Fidelity’s Strategic Bond Fund, speaking with some foresight the week before the Fed decision. “The consensus can be right, and we don’t see much to derail it. But if you see anything to move the narrative, you can get really violent market moves.”

We have been here before, in a range of different markets, but that does not prevent investors from making the same mistake over and over again. This time last year, Powell caught the market off guard in the opposite direction, dropping a hint of interest rate cuts that investors went on to exaggerate hugely out of proportion.

Crowded bets among investors also stung in early August, when a downbeat US labour market report blasted in to several popular and correlated market bets. In late September, deeply unloved Chinese stocks rocketed higher after Beijing unleashed stimulus measures to try and turn the hobbled economy and markets around. Investors had given China such a wide berth that stocks leapt 40 per cent in just a few days as funds piled in to a narrow entrance.

The latest ructions are a useful reminder that despite the disarming simplicity of the American exceptionalism theme, rakes are scattered all over markets for investors next year.

The assumption that the US economy will sail through the first year of Trump 2.0 is brave. Ignoring the (actually pretty obvious) banana skins, particularly around inflation, is “the ultimate ‘trust me’ trade” says Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer for PGIM Fixed Income. “It seems off to me.”

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Now, investors should not assume that the Christmas holiday season will put all this angst to bed. As the final days of 2018 showed, portfolios can and do shake around wildly even when a lot of core markets are shut, on half-days, or on the go-slow. If anything, thinned-out trading volumes at this time of year can make matters worse. 

Some fund managers will be feeling sore about this year-end beating. But Powell has done us all a favour in reminding us that next year will not be for the faint of heart, and the wisdom of crowds is not always your friend.

katie.martin@ft.com

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After 2 failed votes, Mike Johnson unveils new plan to extend key U.S. spy powers

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After 2 failed votes, Mike Johnson unveils new plan to extend key U.S. spy powers

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., takes questions at a news conference at the Capitol on Tuesday.

J. Scott Applewhite/AP


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Speaker Mike Johnson, R.-La., is forging ahead with his latest proposal to renew a key American spy power. His bill, revealed Thursday, is largely unchanged from a previous plan which failed in a series of overnight votes earlier this month.

The program at center of the debate, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), is set to expire on April 30.

FISA 702 allows U.S. intelligence agencies to intercept the electronic communications of foreign nationals located outside of the United States. Some of the nearly 350,000 foreign targets whose communications are collected under the provision are in touch with Americans, whose calls, texts and emails could end up in the trove of information available to the federal government for review.

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For almost two decades, privacy-minded lawmakers from both parties have sought to require specific court approval before federal law enforcement can conduct a targeted review of an American’s information gathered through the program. The lack of any such warrant requirement helped sink an effort last week to extend the program for 18 months, as well as a separate vote on a five-year renewal. 

Trump officials, like those in past administrations, have argued that such a warrant requirement would overburden law enforcement and endanger national security. Johnson’s latest proposal would reauthorize the program for three years, but does not include a warrant requirement. Instead, the bill calls for the FBI to submit monthly explanations for reviews of Americans’ information to an oversight official as well as criminal penalties for willful abuse, among other tweaks.

“I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our Great Military and Country,” the president wrote on Truth Social last week, advocating for the program to be extended without changes. “I have spoken with many in our Military who say FISA is necessary in order to protect our Troops overseas, as well as our people here at home, from the threat of Foreign Terror Attacks. It has already prevented MANY such Attacks, and it is very important that it remain in full force and effect.”

Glenn Gerstell, who served as general counsel at the National Security Agency during the Obama and first Trump administration, says Johnson’s reforms look like an attempt to find a middle ground.

“There’s not a lot of really substantive changes to the statute, but some gestures are made to people who are worried about privacy and civil liberties,” Gerstell said. “It seems like a pretty reasonable compromise that is going to be satisfactory to the national security agencies and yet at the same time represents some gesture to the privacy advocates.”

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“This is not a reform bill and it’s not a compromise,” Elizabeth Goitein, a privacy advocate and senior director of the Liberty and National Security Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, wrote on X. “It’s a straight reauthorization with eight pages of words that serve no serious purpose other than to try to convince members that it’s NOT a straight reauthorization.”

A bipartisan reform deal is still out of reach

Connecticut Rep. Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence committee, told NPR on Wednesday, before the release of Johnson’s new proposal, that lawmakers were working on a bipartisan solution. He said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., was in touch with Johnson on the issue.

“There’s a lot of work being done here,” Himes said. “We’re sort of working out a process that will be inclusive rather than exclusive.” Himes said he was negotiating with Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat and constitutional law scholar, on a reform proposal they hoped could preserve and reform the program — reauthorizing it with bipartisan support.

But Johnson’s new bill appears to fall short of the inclusive approach Himes hoped for.

NPR obtained a memo written by Raskin to his colleagues urging them to oppose the bill, which he said “continues the disastrous policy of trusting the FBI to self-police and self-report its abuses of Section 702 and backdoor searches of Americans’ data.”

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“FBI agents can still collect, search, and review Americans’ communications without any review from a judge,” Raskin wrote.

FBI agents must receive annual training on FISA and are generally barred from searching for information about people in the U.S. if the goal of the search is to investigate general criminal activity, rather than find foreign intelligence information, and those searches need approval from a supervisor or an attorney. 

Republican hardliners — who sunk Johnson’s last reauthorization attempt — also don’t all appear to be on board for Johnson’s latest revision. Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, a past chair of the Freedom Caucus, said “we’re not there yet” in a video he shared to X on Thursday.

“I didn’t take an oath to defend FISA, I didn’t take an oath to defend the intelligence community,” Perry said. “We can’t have them spying on American citizens and, when they do, there has to be accountability and I haven’t seen any that I’m satisfied with yet.”

The House Rules committee meets Monday morning, the first step toward advancing the renewal bill toward a vote.

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Trump Says Israel and Lebanon Agree to Extend Cease-Fire by Three Weeks

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Trump Says Israel and Lebanon Agree to Extend Cease-Fire by Three Weeks

President Trump announced a three-week extension of a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon that had been set to expire in a few days, after hosting a meeting between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats at the White House on Thursday.

Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group that has been attacking Israel from southern Lebanon, did not have representatives at the meeting and did not immediately comment on the announcement. The prime minister of Israel and the president of Lebanon also did not comment.

A successful peace agreement would hinge upon Hezbollah halting attacks, which Lebanon’s government has little power to enforce because it does not control the militia. Lebanon’s military has mostly stayed out of the fighting and is not at war with Israel.

The cease-fire, which was scheduled to end on April 26, would last until May 17 if it takes effect as Mr. Trump described it. Before the cease-fire was brokered last week, nearly 2,300 people were killed in Lebanon and 13 in Israel. Since then, the number of Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah attacks have been dramatically reduced, though the two sides have continued exchanging fire.

The Lebanese Ambassador to the United States, Nada Hamadeh, credited Mr. Trump for extending the cease-fire, saying that “with your help and support, we can make Lebanon great again.” Mr. Trump replied, “I like that phrase, it’s a good phrase.”

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Asked about the potential of a lasting peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, Mr. Trump said that “I think there’s a great chance. They are friends about the same things and they are enemies on the same things.”

But Lebanon and Israel have periodically been at war since Israel’s founding in 1948. Israel has invaded Lebanon for the fifth time since 1978, incursions that have destabilized the country and the delicate balance of power between Muslim, Christian and Druze communities.

In the hours before the president’s announcement on social media, Israel and Hezbollah were trading attacks in southern Lebanon, testing the existing cease-fire.

Mr. Trump said the meeting at the White House had been attended by high-ranking U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the U.S. ambassadors to Israel and Lebanon.

Earlier on Thursday, an Israeli strike near the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh killed three people, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Hezbollah claimed three separate attacks on Israeli troops who are occupying southern Lebanon, though none were wounded or killed.

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Hezbollah set off the latest round of fighting last month by attacking Israel soon after the start of the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran. Israel responded to Hezbollah’s attacks by launching airstrikes across Lebanon and widening a ground invasion of the country’s south.

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U.S. soldier charged with suspected Polymarket insider trading over Maduro raid

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U.S. soldier charged with suspected Polymarket insider trading over Maduro raid

Smoke rises from Port of La Guaira in Venezuela on Jan. 3, 2026 after U.S. forces seized the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

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Federal prosecutors on Thursday unsealed an indictment against a U.S. Army soldier, accusing him of using his insider knowledge of the clandestine military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January to reap more than $400,000 in profits on the popular prediction market site Polymarket.

The Justice Department says Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who was stationed at Fort Bragg, in North Carolina, was part of the team that planned and carried out the predawn raid in Caracas earlier this year that resulted in the apprehension of Maduro.

The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed the actions against Van Dyke, the first time U.S. officials have leveled criminal charges against someone over prediction market wagers.

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According to the indictment, Van Dyke now faces counts of wire fraud, commodities fraud, misusing non-public government information and other charges.

Trading under numerous usernames including “Burdensome-Mix,” Van Dyke allegedly traded about $32,000 on the arrest of Maduro, resulting in profits exceeding $400,000.

“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York. “Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have a duty to protect them and our armed service members, and not to use that information for personal financial gain.”

Van Dyke’s defense lawyer is not yet publicly known. Polymarket did not return a request for comment.

The charges against Van Dyke come at a sensitive time for the prediction market industry, which has been growing exponentially, despite calls in Washington and among state leaders for the sites to be reined in.

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Van Dyke is the first to be charged in the U.S. for suspected Polymarket insider trading, but Israeli authorities in February arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military operations in Iran on Polymarket.

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