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Investors brace for sweeping Trump tariff announcement

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Investors brace for sweeping Trump tariff announcement

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Investors braced themselves for Donald Trump to unveil sweeping tariffs on US trading partners on Wednesday in a move that threatens to ignite a full-blown trade war.

Trading on Wall Street was volatile in the lead-up to Trump’s announcement. The S&P 500 fell more than 1 per cent in early trading, but then rapidly swung modestly into positive territory.

The US president has said he will announce new “reciprocal” tariffs on foreign countries in a White House ceremony at 4pm local time on what he has dubbed “liberation day”.

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But the scope and scale of the levies remains unclear. Since retaking office, Trump has already announced steep tariffs on Canada and Mexico before watering down the plans.

Traders are already braced for the fallout from the announcement and are wary of making bold calls on what Trump will say, with measures of Wall Street volatility creeping higher in recent days.

“The investor community is universally anxious,” said Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at asset manager PGIM, pointing to “people reducing risk and backing away from credit, backing away from the dollar, backing away from stocks” in recent weeks.

After hours locked in discussions with aides on Tuesday, there was little sign that Trump would back down from his plan to ratchet up duties despite warnings of the impact on the US economy.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that the tariffs would be “effective immediately” and dismissed the anxiety in markets that has sparked a sharp sell-off in the S&P 500 index in recent weeks.

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The US stock exchange was a “snapshot in time”, said Leavitt, echoing comments from other Trump officials that the White House would look past market turbulence stemming from the tariffs.

“The president wants to ensure that Americans make out well, particularly Main Street — that’s the focus of these tariffs. Wall Street will be just fine,” she said.

Trump’s tariff threats and subsequent U-turns have whipsawed markets this year, pushing US equities lower and pressuring the dollar and riskier corporate bonds.

JPMorgan’s fixed-income team sent a note to clients on Tuesday afternoon with the title: “We don’t know what tomorrow brings.” They noted that “markets remained on edge” ahead of the president’s announcements.

European markets fell on Wednesday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.7 per cent.

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While some investors have reaped rewards by riding the volatility, many fund managers have shied away from making directional bets given the president’s unpredictability.

“People are doing aggressively nothing,” said Ed Al-Hussainy, senior rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

To hit US trading partners with tariffs immediately, Trump would need to resort to rarely used emergency economic measures. But whether he offers any relief to allies remains unclear — as does the ultimate purpose of the tariffs.

While Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, has pressed foreign officials for “deals” in meetings held over recent weeks, other Trump aides see the tariffs as a way to raise revenue for planned tax cuts.

Christopher Krueger, managing director at TD Cowen Washington Research Group, said that Trump’s announcement “should answer the biggest question from markets, which is if the tariffs are a means to an end, or the end”.

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Gauges of expected market volatility have risen in recent days, with the Vix index of projected equity market turbulence up 4.6 points over the past week to 22, above the long-term average of 20.

A CME index of tumult in the world’s five most-traded currencies and Bank of America’s closely watched gauge of implied volatility in the US Treasury market are both at the highest levels since mid-March.

But those measures remain well below peaks touched this year. Mandy Xu, head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe Global Markets, said there was little sign of a “‘liberation day’ premium” in equity market volatility pricing.

At the same time, the derivatives market, where futures and options are traded, was showing “little extra risk” priced around April 2, said Rocky Fishman, a derivatives analyst at research group Asym 500.

“Most investors realise that, whatever they think, [Trump’s announcements on Wednesday] could leave them with egg on their face,” said Mike Zigmont, co-head of trading at Visdom Investment Group.

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Austin Welcomed Elon Musk. Now It’s Weird (in a New Way).

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Austin Welcomed Elon Musk. Now It’s Weird (in a New Way).

Each weekend for the past few months, Mike Ignatowski has gone to one of two Tesla dealerships in Austin, Texas, to protest Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive and the most famous transplant to the state’s most left-leaning city.

Not too long ago, Mr. Ignatowski, a 67-year-old computer engineer, was an admirer of Mr. Musk — before Mr. Musk aligned himself with President Trump. Now Mr. Ignatowski waves a “Fire Elon” sign during the protests, even as he conceded he’s not quite mad enough to part with the blue Model 3 Tesla that he bought “before we knew Elon was crazy,” as his bumper sticker attests.

That’s how it goes in Texas’ capital, where Mr. Musk’s sharp rightward shift has been received with a mix of anger and hair-pulling agony. Austin’s conflicted feelings reflect both the billionaire entrepreneur’s economic influence on the city and the city’s broader transformation from a medium-sized college town arranged around the State Capitol to a tech-fueled metropolis with a glass-and-steel skyline and a changing image.

Tie-dyed T-shirts still urge residents to “Keep Austin Weird,” mostly in hotels and tourist shops. But a different kind of counterculture has taken root amid an influx of decidedly right-of-center figures (including Mr. Musk), self-described freethinkers (like the podcasters Joe Rogan and Lex Fridman), and conservative entrepreneurs (like Joe Lonsdale). Already in town was Austin’s resident conspiracy theorist, Alex Jones, and his far-right Infowars. There’s even a new, contrarian institution of higher learning looking to compete with the University of Texas at Austin, the University of Austin.

Weird, perhaps, but not in the way of the old bumper-sticker mantra.

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“If you say ‘Keep Austin Weird’ to somebody under the age of 40, they would think of that as an antique-y slogan, like Ye Old Shoppe,” said H.W. Brands, a historian at the University of Texas. “It doesn’t have any resonance for their lived experience of Austin.”

The city’s transformation followed a deliberate, decades-long project to attract technology companies to its rolling hills.

“I’m one who thinks it has changed for the better,” said Gary Farmer, who helped attract new businesses as the founding chairman of Opportunity Texas, an economic development group. “The culinary arts, the performing arts, the visual arts, the music scene — it’s all better.”

At the same time, housing prices have skyrocketed, and the population — already the whitest among big cities in Texas — has shed some of its diversity.

In 2023, more people moved out of Austin’s Travis County than moved in, and the share of Hispanic residents in Austin declined even as across all of Texas, the Hispanic population has grown to become a plurality. Black families have also been leaving Austin, said Lila Valencia, the city’s demographer.

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The biggest increase in new residents has been among households making more than $200,000 a year, which grew by 70 percent from 2019 to 2023, Ms. Valencia said. The share of households making below $100,000 a year declined.

Austin now has about 100 accredited private schools, more than double the 39 it had two decades ago. Enrollment in the city’s public schools has been falling.

For years, locals resisted development, to no avail.

“They were building a lot of freeways in Houston and Dallas, and Austin turned away that money,” said Tyson Tuttle, the former chief executive of Silicon Labs, who moved to Austin in 1992. “They were saying, if we don’t build it, they won’t come. And they came anyway.”

Many in Austin’s new elite have chafed at the progressive policies in city and county government over issues such as homelessness and policing. Last year, some of them, including Mr. Musk, backed a primary challenger to the local Democratic district attorney, José Garza. In a companywide email, Mr. Musk encouraged Tesla employees to vote in support of the challenger.

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Mr. Garza won the primary by a two-to-one margin.

“If an asteroid fell from the sky and hit a Democratic candidate for office in Travis County and killed that person, that person’s corpse would still beat a live Republican,” said Evan Smith, a former leader of the Texas Tribune, an Austin-based nonprofit news site.

Still, the city’s demographic transformation has led many to lament its fading identity as a place of street buskers and a cross-dressing, homeless mayoral candidate. The Austin Chronicle, an alternative weekly newspaper, even sells a shirt that reads “R.I.P. Old Austin.”

Earlier this year, passers-by stopped to listen to an impromptu street performance on Congress Street, like old times, except the guitarist was the Trump-friendly Ted Nugent, and his appearance had been organized by hard-right Republicans.

Almost as common are complaints about the complainers.

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“I’m not one of those naysayers about Austin who say it was all better in the old days,” said Terry Lickona, who for 50 years has produced “Austin City Limits,” a public television showcase for local and national musicians. He added, “Austin has always attracted outsized characters,” including Willie Nelson and Michael Dell, the computer maker.

The struggles at Tesla, where profits have dropped sharply since Mr. Musk began closely aligning himself with Mr. Trump, could directly affect the city. At the same time, Austin is set to be the proving ground for his next big venture: self-driving Tesla taxis, which Mr. Musk promised for June.

Mr. Musk did not respond to an interview request.

“Having Tesla here is a huge benefit to the city,” said Mr. Tuttle, who has recently founded an artificial intelligence startup. “I wish that Elon would come home and focus on his business.”

The arrival of Mr. Musk and Tesla five years ago was a key moment for the city, punctuating a yearslong transformation that was accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Many people, including celebrities and dissatisfied Californians whose politics were shifting amid the lockdowns, sought out the relative openness of Texas.

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“It’s, like, most of the good stuff and very little of the bad stuff,” Mr. Rogan said during a 2021 interview with Mr. Adler, months after moving there.

The result has been a slight moderation of the city’s politics and tensions over Mr. Musk between those who hate his actions in Washington and those who love his role as a technology entrepreneur.

The city “attracts people that are on all sides of issues,” said Joshua Baer, the founder of the Capital Factory, which helps finance and nurture technology startups. “My world is generally Elon fans and supporters.”

On a recent evening, more than two dozen Austinites convened in a church meeting room adorned with colorful messages of inclusivity for a gathering of Resist Austin, which organizes protests against Mr. Musk and Mr. Trump at Tesla dealerships.

“Our mission is lawful nonviolent resistance of authoritarians,” Ian Crowl, an organizer, said to the group, which included retirees, tech workers and graduate students. “If you want to throw a rock at a Tesla,” he added, “that’s not what we’re doing here.”

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Such tensions have been on the mind of Tesla drivers in Austin as well. Vikki Goodwin, a Democratic state representative, said she tries to be “invisible” when driving around in hers. When a car rammed into her at a stop light recently, she worried it might have been intentional.

“Oh my God,” Ms. Goodwin said she thought, “is it anger that caused him to drive into my car?”

The driver, in fact, was using his wife’s gas-powered car, Ms. Goodwin said he told her, and he assumed it would slow down quickly when he took his foot off the gas pedal — like his Tesla does.

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Surge in Chinese listings drives boom for US small-cap IPO market

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Surge in Chinese listings drives boom for US small-cap IPO market

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The volatile market for small US initial public offerings is “booming” thanks to a surge of Chinese listings on New York’s Nasdaq as companies race to beat a rule change that blocks the smallest deals.

The surge in listings kicked off late last year with 42 small offerings in the last three months of 2024, followed by 41 in the first quarter of this year — the two busiest quarters in records back 15 years, according to equity capital markets group Capital Markets Gateway (CMG). This was up from 20 in the second quarter of 2024 and 29 in the third.

Fifty-three of the past two quarter’s listings were from China and Hong Kong, with only 18 from the US, and all but nine on Nasdaq. CMG’s data excludes special purpose acquisition vehicles, which raise money in order to take over a private business.

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“The microcap IPO market is booming,” said Matthew Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, citing small Chinese companies in sectors from pharmaceuticals to construction. “It’s a highly speculative area,” he said, with many investors losing out because most of the stocks eventually fall far below their initial offer price.

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The IPOs came ahead of a raft of policy changes enacted by Nasdaq, effective as of April 11, which include requiring companies listing on its lowest rung under certain standards to raise at least $15mn. The Securities and Exchange Commission said Nasdaq’s new rules would “promote fair and orderly markets” and “protect investors and the public interest”.

Daniel McClory, head of equity capital markets and China at US underwriter Boustead Securities, said he had “30 IPOs in process right now and more than a third are for [companies in] south-east Asia and Greater China”.

The market for large-cap listings has meanwhile disappointed hopes of a revival under Donald Trump. Waves of market volatility around the president’s tariff announcements led bankers to postpone several hotly anticipated tech IPOs while other large listings received a cool reception.

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This has not stopped a flurry of sub-$50mn deals since tariffs shook markets in April. Small IPOs have continued despite Nasdaq raising the bar last month — with eight further deals since the rule change.

“Explosive returns” from companies such as Hong Kong-based Diginex, an ESG data group, and Chinese group EPWK Holdings, a crowdsourcing platform, “can fuel interest from traders hoping for quick gains”, said Kennedy.

Line chart of Share price, $ showing Shares in EPWK surged in late April but collapsed in early May

Shares in Diginex have climbed 1,375 per cent since it listed in January. Last Tuesday, it said UAE royal Sheikh Mohammed bin Sultan bin Hamdan Al Nahyan had struck a $300mn deal giving him the right to buy 6.75mn of its shares before the end of the year.

EPWK had risen 470 per cent in the months after its February market debut, but plunged 75 per cent last Monday.

The market for these small offerings is dominated by amateur traders, who are often more willing to jump on perceived bargains in the stock market during times of disruption when big money managers stay away.

The US Financial Industry Regulatory Authority in 2023 warned investors about “unusual price increases on the day of or shortly after the IPOs of certain small-cap issuers, most of which involve issuers with operations outside the US” and “IPOs raising less than $25mn”.

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The average value of money raised in the small IPOs tracked by CMG in the six months to March was around $9mn.

Brokers say there could be more small IPOs if market conditions improve. “If the market settled down and co-operated we could do an IPO a week,” McClory said. “As it is, we’re targeting about one a month.”

The two most prolific underwriters in the space — Dominari Securities and RF Lafferty — have each taken seven companies public this year, including Chinese “machine vision” company Lianhe Sowell and Hong Kong hotpot chain MasterBeef.

RF Lafferty is headquartered in the Trump Building in New York’s Financial District. Dominari Securities, which acted as lead underwriter for Diginex’s IPO, is a subsidiary of Dominari Holdings, a fintech group based about four miles north in Trump Tower. 

Shares in Dominari Holdings rose 580 per cent in the six weeks before a February 11 filing revealing that the president’s sons Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump had joined its advisory board, the Financial Times reported last month.

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Dominari and RF Lafferty did not respond to requests for comment.

The rush of smaller Chinese IPOs comes as concerns swirl among some investors over whether Trump will delist some Chinese stocks from US exchanges amid trade tensions with Beijing.

One banker at a small US broker said some Chinese companies listing in the US recently had “inverted their corporate structure” to obscure where they carry out the bulk of their business. He said that Chinese companies with an overseas subsidiary were converting their operating company into the parent company “to sanitise the Chinese nature of the listing”.

A bar chart of counts of microcap IPOs by country of headquarters, 2023-25

McClory said he expected that any Trump ban would probably target large state-owned enterprises and sensitive industries rather than small companies. He dismissed concerns that Chinese IPOs in the US were taking investment dollars that would otherwise benefit US entrepreneurs.

“Virtually all of these Asian IPOs were full of investors from Greater China, or Chinese-American investors in the US and outside of China,” he said. “It’s not like they come to the US and take money from American widows and orphans.”

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Chiefs superfan 'ChiefsAholic' sentenced to 32 years in Oklahoma prison

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Chiefs superfan 'ChiefsAholic' sentenced to 32 years in Oklahoma prison

A Kansas City Chiefs fan, ChiefsAholic, poses for photos while walking toward Empower Field at Mile High before an NFL football game between the Denver Broncos and the Chiefs,on Jan. 8, 2022, in Denver.

David Zalubowski/AP


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David Zalubowski/AP

TULSA, Okla. — A Kansas City Chiefs superfan known as “ChiefsAholic” was sentenced Monday in an Oklahoma courtroom to serve 32 years in state prison for robbing a Tulsa-area bank, a sentence that will be carried out after he finishes serving time in federal prison.

Xaviar Babudar, 30, appeared in a Tulsa courtroom and apologized to the court and to the victims of the December 2022 robbery of the Tulsa Teachers Credit Union in Bixby, Oklahoma, said Babudar’s attorney, Jay-Michael Swab.

“He expressed sincere remorse and took full responsibility for his actions,” Swab said.

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Babudar already was serving more than 17 years in federal prison for a string of 11 bank robberies across seven states where he stole nearly $850,000 to finance his social media stardom. Swab said the robberies also were the result of a gambling addiction.

Tulsa County District Attorney Steve Kunzweiler had sought life in prison for Babudar.

“He is a serial robber who traumatized these victims and numerous other victims across this country,” Kunzweiler said in a statement.

Tulsa County District Judge Michelle Keely ordered Babudar’s 32-year sentence to run concurrently to his federal sentence, which means after he is released from federal prison he will be transferred to state custody to serve his remaining 14 years.

Babudar developed a following on his @ChiefsAholic account on the social platform X after attending games dressed as a wolf in Chiefs gear. His avid support of the Chiefs became well known on social media.

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