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​​How elections work | CNN Politics

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​​How elections work | CNN Politics



CNN
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Whether or not you’re essentially the most hardened of political junkies otherwise you solely tune in each different November to vote, it’s all the time a good suggestion to brush up on a few of the phrases you hear thrown round throughout election season and remind your self who’s up for election and the way CNN assesses these races. Listed below are the solutions to some primary questions lots of people is perhaps asking.

When is Election Day?

US elections are held on the primary Tuesday after the primary Monday in November each different 12 months. Election Day 2022 is on November 8.

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Who can vote?

Most Americans who’re 18 and over can vote. There are exceptions, similar to for folks convicted of a felony, though they will vote in sure states.

Does a voter have to be registered?

Voter registration is required in each state however North Dakota. The deadline for voter registration varies. Some states require registration round a month earlier than Election Day. Many now permit folks to register on Election Day.

Who can vote early?

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Most states now supply some type of early voting, both by mail or in particular person. The foundations differ by state.

Which states vote by mail?

Eight US states — California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Washington — and the District of Columbia mail each voter a poll. Some others permit early voting for everybody, and others require an excuse, though virtually anybody can do some type of early voting.

Why are solely a 3rd of senators up for election?

Senators serve six-year phrases, and there are federal elections each two years. The seats are damaged up into three lessons, and a few third of the Senate is on the poll each two years. The 2022 election options Class III senators. See the race rankings by Inside Elections.

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Why are all 435 Home members up for election each two years?

The Home of Representatives is the piece of the federal authorities that’s closest to the folks. Placing Home members up for election each two years permits voters extra direct and fast management of the path of their authorities.

What’s a “flipped seat” or “pickup”?

A flipped seat or pickup is one within the Home or Senate that voters take from one get together and entrust to the opposite get together. Due to redistricting, 9 Home seats – together with seven new seats the place there isn’t any incumbent and two the place two incumbents are operating towards one another – can’t be categorised as pickups for both get together.

Why does the variety of gubernatorial races fluctuate each cycle?

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Every state treats its governors barely otherwise. Forty-eight of the 50 US states elect governors to four-year phrases. Two states, New Hampshire and Vermont, elect governors to two-year phrases. Most states, 36 of them, maintain their governor elections in midterm election years between presidential elections. Three states, Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana, elect governors in off-year elections the 12 months earlier than a presidential election. Two states, New Jersey and Virginia, elect governors in off-year elections the 12 months after a presidential election.

What’s an “incumbent?”

An incumbent is a lawmaker or elected official operating for reelection.

What’s a particular election?

When a senator retires, dies or leaves workplace earlier than his or her time period ends, the state’s governor often appoints a placeholder to fill the seat. Then there’s usually an opportunity for voters to have their say, often on the subsequent doable federal election. That’s how Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona and Raphael Warnock of Georgia had been first elected in 2020 in particular elections and why in 2022 each males are operating for a full six-year time period.

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This 12 months, there are particular Senate elections in Oklahoma, the place Republican Sen. James Inhofe can be resigning subsequent 12 months, and in California, the place Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla, who was appointed to switch Vice President Kamala Harris, is operating each to fill the rest of Harris’ time period (which ends in January) and to win the subsequent time period.

Home members can’t be appointed, so when a Home seat turns into vacant there must be a particular election to fill it. This 12 months, there’s a particular election in Indiana to serve the final couple months of Rep. Jackie Walorski’s time period. Walorski died in August.

What’s ranked-choice voting?

Various cities and states are experimenting with methods to present voters extra entry to the political course of and to doubtlessly depolarize politics. Ranked-choice voting is a system in place for many elections in Maine and Alaska the place voters rank their selections so as of choice as a substitute of selecting a single candidate. If no candidate will get greater than 50% of the first-place votes, the underside candidate is dropped and the second selection of the voters who chosen that candidate will get these votes. That course of repeats till a winner emerges.

What does “estimated vote” imply?

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Primarily based on knowledge together with turnout in earlier elections, pre-election ballots forged or requested, and pre-election polling, organizations can anticipate what number of votes are anticipated in a given election. An estimated vote can under- or overestimate the precise vote, and the proportion reporting could transfer up or down all through Election Night time relying on how these estimates are adjusted as analysts assess real-time knowledge. As these estimates solidify, they are often helpful in predicting what number of votes stay to be counted.

What are exit polls?

Exit polls are large-scale polls performed by a consortium of reports organizations amongst early and absentee voters and voters on Election Day. They’re performed as voters go away polling stations, on Election Day and in lots of states at early voting places, and likewise by phone or on-line forward of Election Day to account for mail-in and early voting.

What does “down poll” imply?

The highest of the ticket is the race that the most important variety of folks in a state will see on their poll. In a presidential 12 months, these candidates are on the prime of the ticket. Candidates in additional native races are down poll. A candidate for the Home, for instance, is down poll from a presidential candidate. A mayoral candidate is down poll from a Home candidate.

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How can CNN venture a race with none votes in?

It is a job CNN takes very significantly. Primarily based on earlier election outcomes, exit polling, current opinion polls, early voter turnout and different elements, it’s generally doable to see that one specific candidate will win a race. If there’s any likelihood of an upset, CNN will chorus from projecting a race.

How does CNN make projections?

Utilizing a mixture of many elements, together with present and former election outcomes, real-time exit polling, current opinion polls, voter registration knowledge and extra, CNN’s determination desk is ceaselessly capable of reliably venture {that a} candidate has acquired sufficient assist to win. It’s a projection, nevertheless, and never the ultimate phrase. State officers and courts have the official say.

What’s a poll initiative? How does a state resolve to place one on the poll?

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Whereas most legal guidelines are handed by state legislatures or Congress, many states put some questions on to voters throughout elections. These can vary from points like marijuana legalization to abortion or tax measures. The poll initiatives give voters a extra energetic function in selecting the path of their legal guidelines.

What’s a CNN “key race”? Who decides that?

“Key race” is a subjective time period. Most politics watchers typically agree that solely a subset of races is actually aggressive in November, and these are typically thought of the important thing races. Political events spend extra money on these races. Reporters spend extra time overlaying them.

Of the 35 Senate races on the poll in 2022, the election forecasters at Inside Elections contemplate three to be true toss-ups and one other 4 to tilt towards both Republicans or Democrats. Nineteen Home races are true toss-ups, though many extra may wind up being intently contested. 5 governor races are toss-ups. See the Inside Elections rankings for Senate, Home and governor. Key races can be races that is perhaps much less aggressive however have broader implications or characteristic particularly notable candidates.

What’s the stability of energy?

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Political events have extra energy once they management the Home or Senate by profitable a majority of the seats in that chamber. The get together in energy controls committees that write laws and decides which measures will get a vote on the ground. Within the Home, the get together with a minimum of 218 seats has the bulk and, assuming it may well unite behind one candidate, selects the Speaker of the Home. Within the Senate, the get together with 51 votes has the bulk.

How does the vice chairman tiebreaker work within the Senate?

The vice chairman’s official obligation is to function president of the Senate, though few trendy vice presidents have spent a lot of their time on Capitol Hill. In votes the place there’s a tie, the vice chairman can forged a tiebreaking vote. Within the present Senate, the place there’s a good break up of Republican and Democratic votes (two independents at present within the Senate often aspect with Democrats), the vice chairman’s tiebreaking vote additionally offers Democrats management of the chamber.

Will we all know who wins on Election Day?

Don’t depend on closing solutions in each race on election night time. With so many individuals voting early and by mail and so many shut elections, there’s a very good likelihood that it’ll take days or even weeks to determine who gained some races. The margins of energy in each the Home and Senate are shut sufficient that it may take days to know who could have a majority of seats.

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Biden hits Democratic fundraising record with star-studded $28mn LA event

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Biden hits Democratic fundraising record with star-studded $28mn LA event

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Joe Biden has raised $28mn for his re-election campaign from a star-studded fundraiser in Los Angeles that shows how Hollywood is sticking with the Democratic president in his race against Donald Trump.

Biden arrived in California on Saturday after flying to the event from the G7 summit in Italy, as his geopolitical priorities quickly made way for the need to bolster his campaign coffers ahead of the November vote.

The fundraiser in California will feature former president Barack Obama as well as actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts.

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Hollywood remains a bastion of Democratic support even as Silicon Valley has shifted towards the right and is becoming a more prominent source of Republican money. Donald Trump recently raised $12mn there at a fundraiser with venture capitalists and entrepreneurs.

Biden’s Hollywood fundraiser is the biggest in the history of the Democratic party, eclipsing his earlier blockbuster campaign finance event in March at Radio City Music Hall in New York City that raised $26mn for the campaign.

Biden Campaign finance chair Rufus Gifford told the Financial Times that it had sought to build on the success in New York by aiming “to create something similar on the west coast”.

“Folks are fired up and we were able to exceed our own expectations,” he said.

Biden built up a $70mn cash advantage in the early months of the year, but Trump has been fundraising frantically to catch up, tapping Republican donors from Wall Street to Florida and Texas in an effort to help him return to the White House.

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Trump’s campaign says it benefited from a fundraising surge since his criminal conviction in a New York court in late May. Full campaign finance reports for the second quarter will be released in mid-July.

According to the Fivethirtyeight.com polling average, Trump has a national lead of 1.1 percentage points over Biden, and an edge in the key battleground states that will decide the election.

Later this month Biden and Trump will face each other in their first televised debate in Atlanta, which could be a pivotal test for both candidates. That will be followed by their parties’ nominating conventions, which will take place in July for the Republicans and August for the Democrats.

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When a Trump rally t-shirt is more than just a shirt

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When a Trump rally t-shirt is more than just a shirt

A vendor sells 2024 Donald Trump campaign souvenirs at the Turning Point Action USA conference in West Palm Beach, Florida, on July 15, 2023.

Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images


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Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images

Trump rallies involve a lot of merch – vendors will sometimes set up overnight before a rally, preparing for the huge crowds. There are hats, socks, flags, buttons and, especially, t-shirts.

I go to a lot of these rallies. In the middle of it all, I’ve gotten a little obsessed with this one particular shirt.

Miranda Barbee bought one in the hours before a Trump rally on the beach in Wildwood, New Jersey, and held it up, reading aloud.

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“I just bought this shirt for $20. It says ‘Biden sucks, Kamala –’ what does that even — ‘swallows’? I didn’t even see the front! That is so funny.” She flipped it around. “And the back says, ‘F**k Joe and the Hoe.’”

She and the friend she came with laughed.

“I honestly didn’t know the front said that,” Barbee added. “But I think that’s hilarious.”

These shirts have been sold prominently at recent rallies – vendors who specialize in these particular shirts often stand right outside the entrances and exits, catching the eyes of the streams of Trump fans.

They’re not official campaign apparel. When asked for comment, a campaign spokesperson didn’t address the shirts directly, instead pointing to a Biden official campaign shirt (slogan: “Free on Wednesdays”) that pokes fun at Donald Trump’s legal troubles.

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Still, I wanted to know: why? Why do these shirts exist, and who’s buying them? Sooner or later, I had spent so much time thinking about it, I wanted to know if there was anything to be learned here.

The infamous Hillary Clinton nutcracker

“The Hillary Nutcracker & Corkscrew Bill”, a boxed set of a nutcracker and bottle corkscrew were available for sale during the 2009 holiday season.

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Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images

Sexism isn’t exactly new in politics.

Consider America’s decades of Hillary-Clinton hatred. One t-shirt slogan around the time of her 2008 presidential campaign read “I wish Hillary had married O.J.,” referring to O.J. Simpson who famously faced trial for his wife’s murder. He was acquitted.

And then there was the Hillary Clinton nutcracker…described gleefully by MSNBC’s Willie Geist in 2007 as “a Hillary doll with serrated stainless steel thighs that, well, crack nuts.” To this, Tucker Carlson — then also of MSNBC — responded, “When she comes on television, I involuntarily cross my legs” and declared that he would be buying one.

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Over the years, Michelle Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Sarah Palin would also be the targets of demeaning, often obscene merchandise.

But still, the open lewdness of the Trump t-shirts. That’s new, right? I asked Tim Miller, a Republican strategist who worked for Jon Huntsman and Jeb Bush’s presidential campaigns.

“It’s not like you couldn’t find a guy standing outside the RNC in 2012 selling some misogynistic Hillary stuff. It was there, but just the intensity of it,” he said, “just how crass it is, it’s definitely a category difference.”

That crassness has been around from the beginning at Trump rallies. As my colleague Don Gonyea reported in 2016, vendors then were selling shirts reading, “Hillary sucks, but not the way Monica does.”

The difference between parties

“What’s different about Donald Trump is that his campaign is not particularly worried about this type of misogyny being attached to his campaign, because at least to date, it hasn’t hurt him that much,” explained Kelly Dittmar, director of research for the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

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A vendor sells t-shirts at a May 1, 2024, Trump rally in Freeland, Michigan.

A vendor sells t-shirts at a May 1, 2024, Trump rally in Freeland, Michigan.

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One example: Even after a jury found him civilly liable for sexual abuse last year, polls didn’t budge.

Part of what’s going on is partisan, Dittmar adds — a reflection of an existing gender gap.

“I think there’s more kind of internal policing among Democrats about the fact that ‘this is contrary to our brand and it hurts us, by the way, with the constituency that is our most reliable one, which is women.’”

Furthermore, she says, this kind of language is often particularly directed at women of color, like Kamala Harris. The word “ho’” on the shirt undeniably makes this about race as well as sex.

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Meanwhile, Dittmar says, the Republican base is majority-men.

“And of course,” she said, “of the women who do support [Republicans], they are more likely to say that this is just, you know, a joke.”

That was true of voter Christena Kincaid, who talked to me just after she had bought one of these shirts at a rally in Freeland, Michigan.

“It’s just a slang. That’s all it is,” she said. “It’s a goofy – it is a little over the top. I get it. But they’re just words.”

That idea, that they’re just words, fits with Trump’s brand as an anti-PC crusader who “tells it like it is,” which has involved loudly insulting women, from Clinton to Megyn Kelly to Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.

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But also, the idea that words don’t matter that much – that echoes the response to the infamous Access Hollywood tape, which Trump’s defenders shrugged off as “locker room talk.”

Trickle-down incivility

Rina Shah is a political strategist and a former Republican congressional aide, and a Republican who opposes Trump. She told me she thinks the shirts very much matter.

“If we’re allowing our kids to see this visually, even if it’s contained at a rally, the person who wears that shirt at that rally isn’t just going to wear that one day,” she said. “This flavor of incivility is permeating our nation’s social fabric.”

I did ask Bob Berger, who I met at that Freeland, Mich., rally, about wearing the shirt outside of a rally.

“Are you worried about offending anyone when you wear it?” I asked.

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“No.”

“Do you think you’ll be careful where you wear it? Like around, I don’t know, grandkids?” I continued.

“Oh, maybe around the grandkids. I probably would be,” he replied.

What Rina Shah said about Trump’s incivility trickling down to his supporters seems true, whether it’s via clothing or simply their willingness to get nasty in talking about Biden and Harris.

“As much as I hope Joe Biden gets arrested, whatever, is not in office anymore. I’m like, we’re still stuck with the bitch.  I don’t want her either,” said Barbee, the voter I met at that New Jersey rally, referring to Harris.

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I asked her: Does that language feel demeaning to you as a young woman – using words like bitch?

“I mean, she is a bitch,” she responded.

On top of that, you can also see all this — the t-shirt slogans, the cuss words, Trump’s vulgarity — as a marker of a gap in American politics: A yawning partisan gap in attitudes about gender.

“Those differences in gender beliefs are going to make it more permissible or not to put forth these types of messages without some sort of a backlash or pushing down,” Dittmar of Rutgers University said.

Studies have found that Trump voters — including women — in 2016 were particularly likely to have beliefs that political scientists term “hostile sexism.” Furthermore, some found that these beliefs were prominent in a way they weren’t in 2012. Those “hostile sexist” beliefs include, for example, the idea that women are too easily offended.

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Barbee, at that New Jersey rally, the voter who talked to me the longest about her shirt, echoed some of those beliefs.

“I feel like feminism is becoming like a huge thing these days, but I also feel like it’s – people are overly sensitive, like they’re reacting to things they shouldn’t be reacting to. “

It’s an attitude that’s been around for a long time. But her new t-shirt? That represented something new.

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France’s new leftwing bloc begins to crack ahead of snap elections

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France’s new leftwing bloc begins to crack ahead of snap elections

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France’s new leftwing unity pact is showing signs of cracking, barely two days after it was formed in a move which threatened to eclipse the centrist alliance of Emmanuel Macron in forthcoming snap elections.

Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon launched an overnight purge of moderates in his party who had advocated for unity, prompting a furious backlash from other leftwing leaders. Olivier Faure, the socialist chief, called it “scandalous”.

The creation of NPF could seriously harm the prospects of pro-Macron candidates by making it much harder for them to qualify for the second round run-off on July 7. The first round takes place on June 30.

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The possibility of a far-right government with the left as the largest opposition force — both of which have massive unfunded spending plans — has rattled financial markets, prompting a sell-off of French debt and equities this week.

Some 75,000 people took part in a demonstration in Paris on Saturday afternoon against the far-right, the police said. The CGT union said 250,000 had taken part in the capital, and 640,000 in protests nationwide.

The NPF was only agreed on Thursday after intense negotiations between four leftwing parties. The parties are deeply divided on the economy, EU policy and Ukraine but have buried their differences to maximise their chances against Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National.

But Mélenchon’s purge has put the NPF under strain. The head of France Insoumise (France Unbowed) removed several colleagues who had previously criticised his extreme positions from the LFI list of election candidates. He included in the list Adrien Quatennens, a protégé and controversial LFI MP who has been accused by his wife of domestic violence.

The move by Mélenchon, a deeply polarising politician, prompted a furious reaction from the purged members and their sympathisers.

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“It’s totally petty, small of him, settling scores when the challenge now is to prevent the far-right from taking power,” Alexis Corbières, one of the MPs removed as a candidate, told France Info.

Another, Raquel Garrido, posted on X: “Shame on you, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This is sabotage. But I can do better. We can do better.”

Mélenchon’s critics say his loyalty to Quatennens is a betrayal of the left’s feminist principles.

His choice of candidates risks destabilising the united front. Martine Aubry, the socialist mayor of Lille where Quatennens is standing, said she would back another candidate to run against him, contravening the unity pact.

Political parties are scrambling to assemble their lists of candidates for the election before the deadline on Sunday afternoon.

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Former French president François Hollande confirmed on Saturday he will run for parliament for the NPF.

Hollande’s candidacy in his home region of Corrèze took his colleagues by surprise. Faure, the socialist leader, said he “was not in the loop”.

If elected, Hollande would become only the second former head of state to take a seat in the National Assembly during the fifth republic. The other was Valéry Giscard d’Estaing.

Hollande said it was “an exceptional decision for an exceptional situation”, given that the far-right is closer to power than at any moment since France’s liberation from Nazi occupation in 1945.

To salvage as many seats as possible, Macron’s centrist alliance is trying to strike reciprocal local deals not stand against each other with centre-right candidates that refuse to back RN.

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The centre-right Les Répubicains party is also in disarray after its leader Eric Ciotti unilaterally agreed an alliance with the far-right. Furious colleagues on the party’s executive unanimously voted to expel Ciotti, but the decision was overturned by a Paris court on Friday night, leaving it unclear who was in charge of the list of candidates.

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