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Chancellor provides minimal help to households on cost of living crisis

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Rishi Sunak’s Spring Assertion on Wednesday provided minimal short-term assist for UK households reeling from the price of residing disaster. As a substitute, the chancellor concentrated his fiscal firepower on constructing a conflict chest for pre-election giveaways.

The transfer confirmed Sunak’s priorities. Surging inflation has generated an enormous windfall of additional tax revenues for the chancellor by stealth, and he selected to return solely somewhat to Britons, in probably the most eye-catching method doable.

First, he unveiled a one-year 5p lower in gas responsibility, efficient from 6pm, plus a £6bn nationwide insurance coverage lower for 30mn staff that may apply from July.

Second, he pre-announced a 1 proportion level discount within the 20p fundamental revenue tax price that may take impact in 2024 — the most probably yr of the following normal election. “For the primary time in 16 years the essential price of revenue tax will likely be lower,” stated Sunak.

Regardless of these strikes by the chancellor, the UK fiscal watchdog stated the tax burden as a proportion of nationwide revenue was because of rise to 36.3 per cent in 2025-26: its highest degree since simply after the second world conflict, and surpassing the official forecast of final October.

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This partly displays earlier strikes by Sunak to extend nationwide insurance coverage contributions, freeze revenue tax thresholds and lift company tax.

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However the maths behind the smoke and mirrors within the chancellor’s Home of Commons speech is comparatively easy and pertains to the results of upper inflation on the economic system, the general public funds and family residing requirements.

The Workplace for Funds Duty expects inflation to peak at about 9 per cent in direction of the top of 2022 — the best price for greater than 40 years. It will squeeze family disposable incomes by 2.2 per cent in 2022-23, which the fiscal watchdog estimated to be “the most important fall in a single monetary yr since [official] data started in 1956-57”.

With actual disposable incomes not forecast to return to pre-pandemic ranges till 2024-25, Aveek Bhattacharya, economist on the Social Market Basis, a think-tank, stated: “The hit to residing requirements is about to be on the same scale to the worst recessions.”

Line chart of Real household disposable income per head (2019-20 = 100) showing UK living standards are set to be hit hard

Dave Innes, head of economics on the Joseph Rowntree Basis, a charity, expressed fury that probably the most susceptible households and pensioners obtained little or no speedy assist with the rising price of residing.

“The alternatives the chancellor has made as we speak gained’t ship any safety for these on the sharpest finish of this disaster, as an alternative he has deserted many to the specter of destitution,” he stated.

Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s no shock the financial development forecasts have been pared again. In contrast with development of 6 per cent in 2022 and a pair of.1 per cent in 2023 in its October forecast, the OBR now thinks the economic system will maintain growth of solely 3.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively. Thereafter, it envisages some catch-up to the earlier financial path.

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Column chart of GDP growth (%) showing Economic growth was stronger than  expected last year but the forecast for 2022 was cut

Public companies may also endure from increased inflation, for which they obtained no compensation from Sunak. Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s School London, stated that with increased vitality payments and different prices, the dearth of compensation meant “pay cuts for . . . nurses, lecturers and the police, with cuts to the amount and high quality of service provision”.

In distinction to the ache that will likely be suffered by households and the general public sector, increased inflation brings extra cash into the Treasury’s coffers with out the chancellor elevating tax charges. It is because it will increase the nominal worth of all items and companies produced upon which taxes are levied.

The OBR calculated that the extra tax receipts ensuing from surging inflation present a windfall of roughly £35bn a yr to Sunak, with solely a few of that having to be spent on increased prices of servicing authorities debt and welfare advantages.

Other than a one-off dangerous yr in 2022-23, the OBR reckoned Sunak will achieve at the least £15bn extra yearly from increased tax revenues than he’s pressured to spend on debt servicing and uprating advantages.

Bar chart of Change in forecasts between Oct 2021 and Mar 2022 (£bn) showing Improved tax revenues far outweigh higher debt servicing costs

Sunak then had a option to make: ought to he compensate Britons and public companies for his or her losses together with his windfall, or ought to he financial institution the cash?

Within the present monetary yr he gained a £50bn windfall, which has been banked. For future years, he has determined to provide again to the general public paying the taxes a internet quantity of some billion of his projected £15bn annual windfall.

This giveaway is at its highest in 2024-25, the doubtless yr of the following election, however even then it’s nonetheless solely £3.6bn internet.

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Sunak made it sound as if the giveaways had been a lot bigger than that however, as soon as once more, smoke and mirrors had been at work.

He stated reducing 5p off gas responsibility on a litre of petrol and diesel would price greater than £5bn this yr, however the Treasury paperwork present an expense of solely £2.4bn. The distinction arises as a result of the chancellor calculated the price from a notional world through which the speed of responsibility on gas was increased than it truly is.

The Institute for Fiscal Research, one other think-tank, stated the price of Sunak’s tax and nationwide insurance coverage modifications within the Spring Assertion had been greater than paid for by the additional revenues secured from freezing revenue tax thresholds for 4 years at a time of a lot increased than anticipated inflation.

Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, stated: “Virtually all staff will likely be paying extra tax on their earnings in 2025 than they might have been paying with out this parliament’s reforms to revenue tax and nationwide insurance coverage contributions, regardless of the tax-cutting measures introduced as we speak.”

As well as, these tax cuts are offset by massive will increase within the quantity of mortgage repayments that latest graduates will face over their working lives.

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This Spring Assertion sought to distract from stealthy tax will increase and actual public spending cuts. Or, as Torsten Bell, chief government of the Decision Basis think-tank, stated on Twitter: “This bundle solely is smart in case your solely take a look at for coverage decisions was are you able to show you’re a tax cutter [and] you’ve already introduced an increase in nationwide insurance coverage.”

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Joe Biden, Barack Obama And Jimmy Kimmel Warn Of Another Donald Trump Term; Star-Filled L.A. Fundraiser Expected To Raise At Least $30 Million — Update

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Joe Biden, Barack Obama And Jimmy Kimmel Warn Of Another Donald Trump Term; Star-Filled L.A. Fundraiser Expected To Raise At Least $30 Million — Update

UPDATED: President Joe Biden‘s star-filled fundraiser in Los Angeles — in which he took part in a conversation with former President Barack Obama and Jimmy Kimmel — is now expected to raise at least $30 million, according to a source close to the campaign.

During the roughly 40-minute sit down, Biden, Obama and Kimmel touted the current administration’s accomplishments, but a good part of the talk was devoted to warnings about another Trump term and even bafflement at the way that the former Celebrity Apprentice host has shattered so many political and institutional norms.

Biden said that “one of the scariest parts” of another Donald Trump is that he would likely have the ability to appoint two more Supreme Court nominees.

“The Supreme Court has never been as out of kilter as it is today,” Biden said. “…The fact of the matter is that this has never been a court that has been this far out of step.”

He noted that when the Dobbs decision was issued overturning Roe vs. Wade, Justice Clarence Thomas wrote that other decisions should be reconsidered, including IVF and contraception. Someone in the audience then shouted, “Gay rights.”

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“By the way, not on my watch. Not on my watch,” said Biden, in a line that got one of the biggest cheers from the crowd in the 7,100-seat Peacock Theater.

Before Kimmel introduced the two presidents, he showed a video of Trump from 2020, where he predicted that if he was not elected, major holidays like the Fourth of July and Christmas would end. Kimmel had asked the president, “Is it satisfying to see that video to see how wrong Orange Julius Caesar was about your presidency?”At the outset, Biden wasted little time making a biting about Donald Trump shortly after he took the stage.

“I could have done nothing and done better than he was doing,” Biden.

The ABC late night host then went into a long list of Biden’s accomplishments, often interspersing them with irreverent quips.

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Kimmel later noted that Biden said he was “fighting to restore the soul of America and lately it seems like we might need and exorcism. Is that why you visited the Pope?”

Biden laughed and said, “The truth is the way in which we communicate with people these days, there’s so much opportunity to just lie….If you have just one source you go to for your news, it’s just easy to convince people that that is the only truth that’s out there.”

Obama referred to Trump’s recent conviction, telling the audience that “Part of what has happened over the last several years is we have normalized behavior that used to be disqualifying. We have the spectacle of the nominee of one of the two major parties sitting in court and being convicted by a jury of his peers on 34 counts. His foundation is not allowed to operate because it was engaging in money business and not actually philanthropic work. You have his organization being prosecuted for not paying taxes. … There are certain standards and values that we should all abide by. Joe Biden has stood for those values and continues to do, and the other guy doesn’t.”

At times during the conversation, Biden tried out some of his own humor. With Trump and Biden neck and neck in the polls, Kimmel at one point asked, “Is this country suffering from Trump amnesia? Why do so many Americans seem to remember the Trump administration the same way we do a colonoscopy, like we know what happened. “

Biden responded, “All they got to do is remember what it was like. Remember the pandemic? He said, ‘Don’t worry. Just inject a little bleach in your body.”

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“That worked for me, by the way,” Kimmel quipped. “Fair is fair.”

Biden then quipped, “By the way, it worked for him. It colored his hair.”

The event, which also featured celebrities such as George Clooney, Julia Roberts and Barbra Streisand, was being touted as the largest Democratic fundraiser ever. The sum is higher than a similar celebrity-filled event the campaign held at Radio City Music Hall in New York in March, when $26 million was raised.

The Biden campaign has been marketing the star-studded event for weeks, with supporters being offered a chance to win a trip to attend and meet some of those on the bill. “It’s amazing how many people will show up to an event when you send 5,000 emails reminding them about it,” Kimmel quipped.

Jill Biden also spoke, introduced by Streisand, who said that the first lady is “the neighbor everyone wishes they have, not the type who suddenly flies an American flag upside down.”

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“Trump has told told us again and again why he wants the White House — to give himself absolute power,” the first lady said.

Among the thousands attending the event were industry figures including Damon Lindelof, Marta Kauffman, CAA’s Bryan Lourd and Craig Gering, Kathy Griffin and Jim Gianopoulos, as well as politicos including Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, among a group of lawmakers participating in a photo line with Biden and Obama. Also at the theater: Los Angeles City Councilman Kevin de Leon.

As expected, there was a heavy police presence, with loud pro-Palestinian protesters gathered on Olympic Boulevard. Demonstrators have tried to block entrances at previous Biden fundraisers, including a Holmby Hills event in December. Protesters disrupted the Radio City event at points, but it went on as scheduled.

Also appearing at the Los Angeles event were Sista Strings (singing “Lift Every Voice”), The Silhouettes, Sheryl Lee Ralph (singing a rousing rendition of “God Bless America”), Jason Bateman and Kathryn Hahn. Jack Black wore stars and stripes overalls over a Dark Brandon T-shirt.

Republicans tried to turn their tables on the expected Trump bashing at the fundraiser. Jessica Millan Patterson, chair of the California Republican Party, said in a statement on Friday, “Democrat presidents have long had expectations of a warm welcome from Californians, but unfortunately for President Biden, his own actions and failed agenda – from rampant inflation to an open border and detrimental foreign policy – have deprived him of that reality. No amount of Hollywood magic or celebrity cameos can disguise the fact that Joe Biden is a failed president who will be retired by voters once and for all this November.” 

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Biden hits Democratic fundraising record with star-studded $28mn LA event

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Biden hits Democratic fundraising record with star-studded $28mn LA event

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Joe Biden has raised $28mn for his re-election campaign from a star-studded fundraiser in Los Angeles that shows how Hollywood is sticking with the Democratic president in his race against Donald Trump.

Biden arrived in California on Saturday after flying to the event from the G7 summit in Italy, as his geopolitical priorities quickly made way for the need to bolster his campaign coffers ahead of the November vote.

The fundraiser in California will feature former president Barack Obama as well as actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts.

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Hollywood remains a bastion of Democratic support even as Silicon Valley has shifted towards the right and is becoming a more prominent source of Republican money. Donald Trump recently raised $12mn there at a fundraiser with venture capitalists and entrepreneurs.

Biden’s Hollywood fundraiser is the biggest in the history of the Democratic party, eclipsing his earlier blockbuster campaign finance event in March at Radio City Music Hall in New York City that raised $26mn for the campaign.

Biden Campaign finance chair Rufus Gifford told the Financial Times that it had sought to build on the success in New York by aiming “to create something similar on the west coast”.

“Folks are fired up and we were able to exceed our own expectations,” he said.

Biden built up a $70mn cash advantage in the early months of the year, but Trump has been fundraising frantically to catch up, tapping Republican donors from Wall Street to Florida and Texas in an effort to help him return to the White House.

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Trump’s campaign says it benefited from a fundraising surge since his criminal conviction in a New York court in late May. Full campaign finance reports for the second quarter will be released in mid-July.

According to the Fivethirtyeight.com polling average, Trump has a national lead of 1.1 percentage points over Biden, and an edge in the key battleground states that will decide the election.

Later this month Biden and Trump will face each other in their first televised debate in Atlanta, which could be a pivotal test for both candidates. That will be followed by their parties’ nominating conventions, which will take place in July for the Republicans and August for the Democrats.

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When a Trump rally t-shirt is more than just a shirt

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When a Trump rally t-shirt is more than just a shirt

A vendor sells 2024 Donald Trump campaign souvenirs at the Turning Point Action USA conference in West Palm Beach, Florida, on July 15, 2023.

Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images


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Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images

Trump rallies involve a lot of merch – vendors will sometimes set up overnight before a rally, preparing for the huge crowds. There are hats, socks, flags, buttons and, especially, t-shirts.

I go to a lot of these rallies. In the middle of it all, I’ve gotten a little obsessed with this one particular shirt.

Miranda Barbee bought one in the hours before a Trump rally on the beach in Wildwood, New Jersey, and held it up, reading aloud.

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“I just bought this shirt for $20. It says ‘Biden sucks, Kamala –’ what does that even — ‘swallows’? I didn’t even see the front! That is so funny.” She flipped it around. “And the back says, ‘F**k Joe and the Hoe.’”

She and the friend she came with laughed.

“I honestly didn’t know the front said that,” Barbee added. “But I think that’s hilarious.”

These shirts have been sold prominently at recent rallies – vendors who specialize in these particular shirts often stand right outside the entrances and exits, catching the eyes of the streams of Trump fans.

They’re not official campaign apparel. When asked for comment, a campaign spokesperson didn’t address the shirts directly, instead pointing to a Biden official campaign shirt (slogan: “Free on Wednesdays”) that pokes fun at Donald Trump’s legal troubles.

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Still, I wanted to know: why? Why do these shirts exist, and who’s buying them? Sooner or later, I had spent so much time thinking about it, I wanted to know if there was anything to be learned here.

The infamous Hillary Clinton nutcracker

“The Hillary Nutcracker & Corkscrew Bill”, a boxed set of a nutcracker and bottle corkscrew were available for sale during the 2009 holiday season.

Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images


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Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images

Sexism isn’t exactly new in politics.

Consider America’s decades of Hillary-Clinton hatred. One t-shirt slogan around the time of her 2008 presidential campaign read “I wish Hillary had married O.J.,” referring to O.J. Simpson who famously faced trial for his wife’s murder. He was acquitted.

And then there was the Hillary Clinton nutcracker…described gleefully by MSNBC’s Willie Geist in 2007 as “a Hillary doll with serrated stainless steel thighs that, well, crack nuts.” To this, Tucker Carlson — then also of MSNBC — responded, “When she comes on television, I involuntarily cross my legs” and declared that he would be buying one.

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Over the years, Michelle Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Sarah Palin would also be the targets of demeaning, often obscene merchandise.

But still, the open lewdness of the Trump t-shirts. That’s new, right? I asked Tim Miller, a Republican strategist who worked for Jon Huntsman and Jeb Bush’s presidential campaigns.

“It’s not like you couldn’t find a guy standing outside the RNC in 2012 selling some misogynistic Hillary stuff. It was there, but just the intensity of it,” he said, “just how crass it is, it’s definitely a category difference.”

That crassness has been around from the beginning at Trump rallies. As my colleague Don Gonyea reported in 2016, vendors then were selling shirts reading, “Hillary sucks, but not the way Monica does.”

The difference between parties

“What’s different about Donald Trump is that his campaign is not particularly worried about this type of misogyny being attached to his campaign, because at least to date, it hasn’t hurt him that much,” explained Kelly Dittmar, director of research for the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

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A vendor sells t-shirts at a May 1, 2024, Trump rally in Freeland, Michigan.

A vendor sells t-shirts at a May 1, 2024, Trump rally in Freeland, Michigan.

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One example: Even after a jury found him civilly liable for sexual abuse last year, polls didn’t budge.

Part of what’s going on is partisan, Dittmar adds — a reflection of an existing gender gap.

“I think there’s more kind of internal policing among Democrats about the fact that ‘this is contrary to our brand and it hurts us, by the way, with the constituency that is our most reliable one, which is women.’”

Furthermore, she says, this kind of language is often particularly directed at women of color, like Kamala Harris. The word “ho’” on the shirt undeniably makes this about race as well as sex.

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Meanwhile, Dittmar says, the Republican base is majority-men.

“And of course,” she said, “of the women who do support [Republicans], they are more likely to say that this is just, you know, a joke.”

That was true of voter Christena Kincaid, who talked to me just after she had bought one of these shirts at a rally in Freeland, Michigan.

“It’s just a slang. That’s all it is,” she said. “It’s a goofy – it is a little over the top. I get it. But they’re just words.”

That idea, that they’re just words, fits with Trump’s brand as an anti-PC crusader who “tells it like it is,” which has involved loudly insulting women, from Clinton to Megyn Kelly to Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.

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But also, the idea that words don’t matter that much – that echoes the response to the infamous Access Hollywood tape, which Trump’s defenders shrugged off as “locker room talk.”

Trickle-down incivility

Rina Shah is a political strategist and a former Republican congressional aide, and a Republican who opposes Trump. She told me she thinks the shirts very much matter.

“If we’re allowing our kids to see this visually, even if it’s contained at a rally, the person who wears that shirt at that rally isn’t just going to wear that one day,” she said. “This flavor of incivility is permeating our nation’s social fabric.”

I did ask Bob Berger, who I met at that Freeland, Mich., rally, about wearing the shirt outside of a rally.

“Are you worried about offending anyone when you wear it?” I asked.

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“No.”

“Do you think you’ll be careful where you wear it? Like around, I don’t know, grandkids?” I continued.

“Oh, maybe around the grandkids. I probably would be,” he replied.

What Rina Shah said about Trump’s incivility trickling down to his supporters seems true, whether it’s via clothing or simply their willingness to get nasty in talking about Biden and Harris.

“As much as I hope Joe Biden gets arrested, whatever, is not in office anymore. I’m like, we’re still stuck with the bitch.  I don’t want her either,” said Barbee, the voter I met at that New Jersey rally, referring to Harris.

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I asked her: Does that language feel demeaning to you as a young woman – using words like bitch?

“I mean, she is a bitch,” she responded.

On top of that, you can also see all this — the t-shirt slogans, the cuss words, Trump’s vulgarity — as a marker of a gap in American politics: A yawning partisan gap in attitudes about gender.

“Those differences in gender beliefs are going to make it more permissible or not to put forth these types of messages without some sort of a backlash or pushing down,” Dittmar of Rutgers University said.

Studies have found that Trump voters — including women — in 2016 were particularly likely to have beliefs that political scientists term “hostile sexism.” Furthermore, some found that these beliefs were prominent in a way they weren’t in 2012. Those “hostile sexist” beliefs include, for example, the idea that women are too easily offended.

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Barbee, at that New Jersey rally, the voter who talked to me the longest about her shirt, echoed some of those beliefs.

“I feel like feminism is becoming like a huge thing these days, but I also feel like it’s – people are overly sensitive, like they’re reacting to things they shouldn’t be reacting to. “

It’s an attitude that’s been around for a long time. But her new t-shirt? That represented something new.

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