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Asian stocks rally as fears of US recession recede

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Asian stocks rally as fears of US recession recede

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Asian stocks followed Wall Street’s rally on Friday as fears of a US recession receded, helping to reverse a steep market sell-off earlier this month.

Japan’s benchmark Topix index rose over 2.5 per cent on Friday morning, while the tech-heavy Nikkei 225 surged almost 3 per cent. Shares in Australia, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea also increased.

The moves picked up on momentum in US stocks on Thursday as retail sales data and strong results from Walmart boosted confidence and eased fears that the economy could fall into a recession. The S&P 500 closed 1.6 per cent higher, enough to wipe out the benchmark index’s August losses.

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“It’s a combination of stronger US data, stabilisation of the yen and stable geopolitics,” said Prashant Bhayani, chief investment officer for Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management.

“Underlying Japanese economic data is also looking a bit better, while Korea and Taiwan benefited from stronger US tech.”

Shares in Fujikura, a Japanese maker of optical connectors used in data centres and a beneficiary of the artificial intelligence trend, surged more than 10 per cent to an all-time high. 

Japanese tech bellwethers Renesas Electronics, Disco and Tokyo Electron were all sharply higher after the US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks global semiconductor companies, rose 5 per cent on Thursday.

The yen has weakened to ¥148.8 against the dollar after strengthening significantly during the market sell-off earlier in August.

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Forex traders in Tokyo said some hedge funds had started rebuilding short term positions in the so-called yen carry trade, in which traders take advantage of Japan’s low interest rates to borrow in yen and buy risky assets. The global sell-off at the beginning of the month was exacerbated by the unwinding of the yen carry trade.

“If there are carry trades coming back, they are not positioning on a six month view, but on a six-hour view,” said a forex analyst in Tokyo.

US retail sales increased 1 per cent in July, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday, the most in a year and a half and far above economists’ forecasts of a 0.3 per cent increase. Meanwhile Walmart raised its profit forecast and reported a 4.2 per cent year-on-year increase in same-store sales at its main US outlets.

The yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury edged down 0.01 percentage points to 3.90 per cent on Friday, while the rate sensitive 2 year dropped 0.03 percentage points to 4.07. Bond yields fall as their prices rise.

The retail sales figures gave investors more confidence that the US economy would not fall into an imminent recession, said analysts.

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“Retail sales were certainly better than expected though it is becoming clear that the US consumer, particularly at the lower income end of the spectrum, is becoming stretched,” said Brian Arcese, portfolio manager at Foord Asset Management.

“The downtick in inflation and the strong retail sales figures have certainly fuelled markets though we would remain cautious. We find better value in either defensive sectors such as utilities and/or regions outside of the US.”

Euro Stoxx 50 futures were up almost 0.3 per cent.

Additional reporting by Gregory Meyer, Harriet Clarfelt and Colby Smith in New York

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Federal Workers Who Were Fired and Rehired by the Trump Administration

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Federal Workers Who Were Fired and Rehired by the Trump Administration

Even as the Trump administration continues to slash federal jobs, a number of federal agencies have begun to reverse course — reinstating some workers and pausing plans to dismiss others, sometimes within days of the firings.

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Note: Some dates on the chart are approximate, based on available information.

The Office of Personnel Management on Tuesday revised earlier guidance calling for probationary workers to be terminated, adding a disclaimer that agencies would have the final authority over personnel actions. It is unclear how many more workers could be reinstated as a result.

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Here’s a look at some of the back-and-forths so far:

Rehiring Some Essential Workers

Trump-appointed officials fired, then scrambled to rehire some employees in critical jobs in health and national security.

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Workers reviewing food safety and medical devices

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Around Feb. 15 The Food and Drug Administration fired about 700 probationary employees, many of whom were not paid through taxpayer money.

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Workers involved in bird flu response

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icon Around Feb. 14 The Department of Agriculture continued plans to fire thousands of employees, including hundreds in a plant and animal inspection program.
icon Days later The agency said it was trying to reverse the firings of some employees involved in responding to the nation’s growing bird flu outbreak.

Workers who maintain the U.S. nuclear arsenal

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icon Feb. 13 The Energy Department began laying off 1,000 of its probationary employees, including more than 300 who worked at the National Nuclear Security Administration, which maintains and secures the country’s nuclear warheads. A spokesperson for the Energy Department disputed that number, saying fewer than 50 at the N.N.S.A. were fired.

Rehired After Political Pushback

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Public opposition from both Democrats and Republicans has also resulted in some fired workers getting called back.

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Workers managing a 9/11 survivors’ health program

icon Around Feb. 15 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cut hundreds of employees, including 16 probationary workers who manage the World Trade Central Health Program, which administers aid to people who were exposed to hazards from the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.
icon Several days later After bipartisan pushback, the Trump administration said that fired employees would return to their jobs.

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Scientific researchers, including military veterans

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icon Feb. 18 The National Science Foundation fired 168 employees, or roughly 10 percent of its work force.
icon Less than two weeks later The foundation began reversing dismissals of 84 probationary employees, in response to a ruling by a federal judge and guidance from the Office of Personnel Management to retain the employment of military veterans and military spouses.

Temporary Reinstatements and Pauses on Firings

The firing spree has prompted a slew of lawsuits, which in some cases have resulted in temporary reversals.

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Employees at a federal financial watchdog

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icon Feb. 11 Officials fired almost 200 employees at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a financial industry watchdog, and ordered the rest to stop their work.

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Employees at an international aid department

icon A day later A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to temporarily halt the layoffs.
icon Two weeks later The judge ruled that the administration could proceed with plans to lay off or put on paid leave many agency employees. U.S.A.I.D. moved to fire around 2,000 U.S.-based workers and put up to thousands of foreign service officers and others on paid leave.

Workers from multiple agencies have also filed complaints with the office of a government watchdog lawyer who himself has been targeted by Mr. Trump for termination. In response to requests from that office, an independent federal worker board has considered some of the claims and temporarily reinstated some workers.

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Workers at the Agriculture Department

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icon Feb. 13 The Agriculture Department began cutting thousands of jobs, including around 3,400 in the Forest Service.
icon Three weeks later The Merit Systems Protection Board issued a stay ordering the department to reinstate fired workers while an investigation continued.

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Six workers from six federal agencies

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icon Feb. 14 The Office of Personnel Management sent an email ordering federal agencies to fire tens of thousands of probationary employees.
icon Less than two weeks later The Merit Systems Protection Board temporarily reinstated six fired federal workers from the Departments of Agriculture, Education, Energy, Housing and Urban Development and Veterans Affairs, and the Office of Personnel Management.

The back-and-forth and lack of transparency surrounding the administration’s cost-cutting moves have deepened the confusion and alarm of workers across the federal government at large, many of whom also have to interpret confusing email guidance and gauge the veracity of various circulating rumors.

“The layoffs and then rehires undermine the productivity and confidence not only of the people who left and came back but of the people who stayed,” said Stephen Goldsmith, an urban policy professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School and a former mayor of Indianapolis.

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Are you a federal worker? We want to hear from you.

The Times would like to hear about your experience as a federal worker under the second Trump administration. We may reach out about your submission, but we will not publish any part of your response without contacting you first.

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Trump has undermined US economic exceptionalism

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Trump has undermined US economic exceptionalism

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In his first address to Congress since beginning a tumultuous second term, US President Donald Trump proudly claimed on Tuesday night that he was “just getting started”. That is a bad omen for the world’s largest economy. The optimism among companies and investors that came with the businessman’s election victory is rapidly waning. After the president confirmed tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China on Monday night, the S&P 500 initially erased all the gains it had made since the November polls. Consumer confidence has plunged. Manufacturers are reporting steep declines in new orders and employment, and bearish investor sentiment has shot well above its historic average.

Uncertainty is clouding the data and forecasts. Still, it is clear that the president has squandered what was a decent economic inheritance. Not long ago price pressures were fading, the US Federal Reserve was on the cusp of a steady rate-cutting cycle into a resilient economy, and the S&P 500 was gliding upwards. This is no longer true.

The depressing turnaround is a product of the administration’s pursuit of on-and-off import duties, and a chaotic policy agenda. The White House may believe it has a plan but America’s economic exceptionalism, from its relentless consumer spending and booming stock market to its reputation for dependable economic governance, is the collateral damage.

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Personal expenditure — a bulwark of recent US growth — fell in January, by its most in nearly four years. With pandemic-era inflation not yet fully extinguished, and the reality of Trump’s price-raising tariff plans now dawning, consumers’ expectations for inflation in the year ahead have surged. The Fed has so far responded to forthcoming price pressures by putting rate cuts on hold, leaving borrowers facing a higher cost of credit. Elon Musk’s planned clear-out of public sector employees is also set to raise joblessness in an already cooling labour market.

Animal spirits are under pressure too. Perhaps naively, many businesses and investors expected import duties to be merely a negotiating tool. But Trump also believes tariffs are about “protecting American jobs”. After the latest salvo towards North American neighbours, the president offered a one-month reprieve for automakers on Wednesday, and was moving to broaden it on Thursday.

The unpredictability of tariff carve-outs, reversals and steps against other trading partners makes it impossible for businesses to plan. Retaliatory measures will also hurt exporters. The broader deluge of policy announcements — some of which have had significant geopolitical ramifications — adds to the decision-making paralysis facing boardrooms and traders.

Faith in US economic and financial institutions is also being tested. Trump has filled regulatory bodies with his chums. The Fed’s independence is an ongoing concern. Then there are zany economic ideas, from building a cryptocurrency reserve to a rumoured “Mar-a-Lago accord” to devalue the dollar. Some analysts note that the dollar’s recent weakness amid economic turmoil suggests financial markets may be beginning to question the safe haven status of the currency.

It is true that the administration’s tax cuts and deregulation efforts are yet to get started. But since they are likely to be paired with tariffs on more trading partners, rash policymaking and a clampdown on undocumented immigrants — which make up an estimated 5 per cent of workers — optimism around near-term US economic growth feels increasingly like blind hope. The contours of Trump’s economic agenda have sharpened. It is already worse than everyone thought, and he is just six weeks in.

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Steve Carell announces that a charity will fund proms for students affected by LA fires

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Steve Carell announces that a charity will fund proms for students affected by LA fires

Steve Carell attends the “Despicable Me 4” New York Premiere at Jazz at Lincoln Center in June.

Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images


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Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images

Steve Carell is making amends for a memorable but painful episode of The Office.

The Golden Globe-winning actor announced in a video posted on YouTube that the charity Alice’s Kids will cover the costs of prom tickets for hundreds of high school seniors in Altadena after a series of wildfires ravaged much of Los Angeles in January.

“Attention! Attention, all seniors,” Carell said in a video posted to the charity’s YouTube channel.

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“Alice’s Kids wanted me to let you know that they will be paying for all of your prom tickets. And if you’ve already paid for your prom tickets, they will reimburse you for your prom tickets,” he said.

“It’s a pretty good deal,” he added.

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The Virginia-based children’s charity said that the prom promise will support approximately 800 students across six high schools, estimating the total cost to be around $175,000.

Ron Fitzsimmons, the executive director of Alice’s Kids, said Carell was asked to announce the pledge because so many young people binge-watched The Office during the pandemic.

“Steve has supported us for years. When I started talking to principals about paying for the tickets, someone at some point actually mentioned Steve’s name … and he told me that Steve was actually pretty popular with high schoolers because they ‘discovered’ The Office during COVID and they saw Despicable Me,” Fitzsimmons said in an email to NPR.

“So, I came up with the idea of having Steve announce our gesture, and he agreed immediately to cut the video.”

Carell’s promotion of this charitable act calls to mind one of the most polarizing episodes of the beloved American series The Office.

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In the season six episode “Scott’s Tots,” Carell’s character, Michael Scott, famously pledges to pay for a class of high school seniors’ college tuition, only to reveal that he lacks the funds to fulfill his promise.

In contrast, students need not worry in this real-world scenario, as Alice’s Kids is fully covering the costs.

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