Connect with us

News

After backing him in 2020, a new poll shows some young voters are Biden's to lose

Published

on

After backing him in 2020, a new poll shows some young voters are Biden's to lose

Supporters listen as President Biden speaks during a Black Voters for Biden campaign event at Girard College, Wednesday, May 29, in Philadelphia. Biden won Black voters under 45 with around 80% in 2020. In a recent University of Chicago poll, that support is more of a question in 2024.

Evan Vucci/AP/AP


hide caption

toggle caption

Advertisement

Evan Vucci/AP/AP

Five months out from the presidential election, the state of the youth vote, in some ways, remains a question mark.

It’s a regularly covered topic as President Biden continues to receive low marks from Gen Z and millennial voters, even as the same age group decidedly voted for him four years ago.

But among younger Black, Latino and Asian American voters, who overwhelmingly sided with Biden in 2020, and at higher rates than young white voters did, support has considerably faltered, according to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward survey.

Advertisement

The survey, exclusively obtained by NPR, which was conducted from May 10-22, polled the political attitudes of 2,089 Americans under 40, with largely equal samples of white, Black, Latino and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) individuals.

It found that just one-third of all young Americans said they would back Biden if the election was held at the time the survey was conducted. The poll also reflects a virtual tie in the race. Biden leads former President Donald Trump by just two points, and 34% of respondents are currently backing a third-party candidate or said they would support “someone else.”

Plus, despite speculation over how U.S. support for Israel may negatively affect Biden’s youth coalition, the poll found that the war in Gaza is not the top voting issue for most young Americans. Instead, economic concerns, particularly over inflation, remain front and center.

That said, the economy is one of several policy areas, along with immigration and the war in Gaza, where respondents were less likely to pick Biden as the best candidate to handle the issue, illustrating a potentially deeper problem for his campaign with younger Americans.

Biden’s 2020 coalition is missing in 2024

Broken down by race and ethnicity, Biden has particularly lost ground with Black and Latino young people.

Advertisement

In 2020, 89% of Black voters aged 18-29 voted for Biden, as well as 78% of those aged 30-44. In the latest GenForward survey, just 33% said they would support him if the election were held today and 23% chose Trump.

Trump is beating Biden among young Latino voters by a four-point margin. It’s a significant drop in support for Biden compared to four years ago, when he won 69% of Latino voters under 30, and 62% of those 30-44.

When looking at a sample of only registered voters, the numbers improve for Biden and push him back ahead of Trump with Latinos, but the margins remain slim. Biden’s support with Black voters only ticks up two points to 35%.

“Young people are saying to Joe Biden, ‘win me, win my vote,’” said Cathy Cohen, a professor at the University of Chicago who founded and leads the GenForward poll. “’Don’t assume I’m going to vote for you now.’”

Advertisement

That statement rings true particularly for individuals still searching for a different candidate, even as the presidential primary season is virtually finished. Among both Black and Latino Americans, about a quarter said they would vote for someone else.

There are several paths for the “someone else” voter and Cohen argued opinions could likely change as the election nears closer.

“This is how young people are kind of showing up right now as we begin to enter the summer,” she added. “Come November, when there is something at stake… those numbers could look a little different.”

But in GenForward’s June survey four years ago – which did not include third-party candidates – Biden did have considerably more support. He received backing from a majority of Black, Latino and Asian Americans and an average of just 15% said they would vote for someone else.

The latest poll’s inclusion of third-party candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West may also indicate how additional names on the ballot could splinter the youth vote in the fall. A similar result was reflected in the latest Harvard Youth Poll, Biden defeats Trump in a head-to-head matchup, but when third-party candidates are included, the margin decreases.

Advertisement

Economic issues are driving voters, not the Israel-Hamas war

Inflation ranks first across all groups when asked what issue is most important when voting this fall. Concerns around economic growth come second for Black, Latino and AAPI young people, while “threats to American Democracy” does for whites.

To Cohen, a lot of Biden’s problems revolve around the current state of the economy, and though inflation is slowing, she argues these shifts haven’t fully resonated.

“These young people are dealing with increasing rents, increasing food prices, increasing gas costs, and their incomes are less flexible, I would argue, than older folks,” she explained.

Gen Z and millennials are not alone in prioritizing economic issues. It consistently ranks number one across generations and racial groups. In this latest poll, issues often linked to younger voters, like abortion rights, curbing gun violence, addressing climate change and ending the war in Gaza, appear lower on the list of important issues.

Advertisement

When asked to choose which presidential candidate would do the best on issues relating to immigration and inflation, Trump has the most support overall. But, in the question, which gave respondents the options of Trump, Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and “none of them,” Trump is closely followed by “none of them.”

One of Biden’s areas of relative strength, abortion access, has been a cornerstone of his campaign. Biden leads by just three points followed by the option, “none of them.”

In the 2022 midterms, safeguarding abortion access was the top motivator for voters under 30, and they turned out overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates.

It remains an important electoral issue in the GenForward poll: a third of overall respondents said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, and nearly half agree that individuals should, “always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice”

On the Israel-Hamas war, just 4% of young Americans overall said it’s the most important voting issue for them. A knowledge gap on the topic also exists. Respondents were most likely to choose “don’t know” in response to questions regarding support and sympathy for Israel and the Palestinian people, as well as who to blame for the conflict when given the options of Hamas, the Israeli government, the U.S. government, the Iranian government and all of the above.

Advertisement

Among AAPI young people, the issue holds more weight, 10% say it’s the most important issue when voting in the election and six in 10 want a permanent ceasefire.

And young people overall support an end to the war, with 53% backing a permanent ceasefire.

That all said, Biden holds low approval ratings over his handling of the conflict, with just 12% support, compared to 49% disapproval and 39% choosing neither option.

It all underscores the complex choice many undecided young Americans have this fall, Cohen argued, especially for voters of color, who may typically align themselves with Democratic values.

The likely choice: get back on board with Biden or effectively stay home.

Advertisement

“In a swing state, if the Biden campaign is dependent on those young people and they don’t vote, in some ways it is a vote for Trump,” Cohen said.

“I think we don’t take seriously enough,” she continued, “what does it mean if enough young Black people or enough young folks of color decide just not to vote?”

News

Takeaways from an eventful 2025 election cycle

Published

on

Takeaways from an eventful 2025 election cycle

Is there such a thing as an “off year” for U.S. elections? The elections in 2025 were not nearly as all-encompassing as last year’s presidential race, nor as chaotic as what is expected from next year’s midterms. But hundreds of elections were held in dozens of states, including local contests, mayoral races, special congressional elections and two highly anticipated governor’s races.

Many of the elections were seen as early tests of how lasting President Trump’s 2024 gains might be and as a preview of what might happen in 2026.

Advertisement

Here are five takeaways from the 2025 election cycle.

In Elections Seen as Referendums on Trump, Democrats Won Big

Advertisement

Democrats did well in nearly all of this year’s elections, continuing a pattern that has played out across off-year elections for the last two decades: The party that wins the White House routinely loses ground in the next round of elections.

Advertisement

Virginia and New Jersey have historically swung away from the president’s party in governor’s races

The change in the final margin from the presidential election to the next election for governor

Sources: Virginia Department of Elections, N.J. Division of Elections, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Elections. The New York Times

Advertisement

Elections in these years are often viewed as referendums on the president’s performance. And Mr. Trump’s approval ratings, after months of holding steady, took a dip in November.

A notable shift came in New Jersey, where the majority-Hispanic townships that swung toward Mr. Trump in 2024 swung back to Democrats in the 2025 governor’s race. That contributed significantly to the victory of Representative Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate, over Jack Ciattarelli, the Trump-backed Republican.

Advertisement

New Jersey’s majority-Hispanic towns snapped back left in 2025

Each line is a township whose width is sized to the number of votes cast in 2025

Advertisement

Note: Includes townships where more than 500 votes were cast in 2025. Sources: N.J. county clerks, N.J. Division of Elections, U.S. Census Bureau. The New York Times

The leftward swing was viewed by many political commentators as a reaction to Mr. Trump. If that is the case, it remains to be seen how much of it will carry over into 2026.

Advertisement

Progressive and Moderate Democrats Are Both Claiming Victories

Democratic strategists continue to debate whether the party should embrace progressive candidates or more moderate ones. And in 2025, the election results had both sides feeling emboldened.

Advertisement

In New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who struggled to garner support from the Democratic Party, defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nine points. A similar story played out in Jersey City, where James Solomon, a progressive, crushed former Gov. James McGreevey of New Jersey in a mayoral runoff. Progressives also prevailed in cities like Detroit and Seattle.

Centrist Democrats, meanwhile, came away with arguably the two biggest wins of the year against Trump-endorsed Republicans. Abigail Spanberger and Ms. Sherrill, both Democrats, outperformed their polling estimates and decisively won the high-profile governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey.

The debate will continue among Democrats as several 2026 primaries have prominent progressive and moderate candidates going head to head.

Advertisement

In Texas, Representative Jasmine Crockett, a progressive, entered the primary race for a U.S. Senate seat against the more moderate James Talarico. A similar situation has developed in Maine, where Graham Platner has pitched himself as a more progressive alternative to Janet Mills in the party’s attempt to unseat Senator Susan Collins, a Republican. Other progressives, like Julie Gonzales in Colorado and Brad Lander in New York, are challenging incumbent Democrats in primary races.

A Record 14 Women Will Serve as Governors in 2026

Advertisement

Virginians elected Ms. Spanberger as their first female governor. In New Jersey, Ms. Sherrill became the second woman to secure the position. Both women significantly outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris’s margins from the 2024 presidential race, improving on her results by almost 10 points.

Female candidates also did well down the ballot. Eileen Higgins will be the first female mayor in Miami after defeating Emilio González, who had the support of Mr. Trump. And, in Seattle, Katie Wilson defeated the incumbent mayor, Bruce Harrell.

Advertisement

States that will have female governors in 2026

Advertisement

Source: Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. The New York Times

Come 2026, a record 14 women — 10 Democrats and four Republicans — will serve as governors, with six of them expected to run for re-election next year. (More than a dozen states have yet to elect a female governor.)

In New York, it is likely that both candidates will be women: Representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican, began a campaign last month against the incumbent, Kathy Hochul.

Advertisement

Special Elections Are Still Very Special (for Democrats)

Despite not flipping any House seats, Democrats outperformed Ms. Harris’s 2024 results in every House special election this cycle. Their wins, however, offer limited insight into what might happen in 2026.

Advertisement

Special elections, which happen outside of regular election cycles to fill vacated seats, draw fewer voters than those in midterm or presidential years. Special election voters tend to be older and highly engaged politically, and they are more likely to be college educated. That has given Democrats a distinct advantage in recent years, and 2025 was no exception.

Advertisement

Democrats did well in the 2025 special elections

Democratic candidates in this year’s special congressional elections outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 margins.

Sources: Special election results are from The Associated Press, and 2024 presidential margins by congressional district are estimates from The New York Times. The New York Times

Advertisement

Democratic strength in special elections extended to lower-profile races held this year. In Virginia, Democrats secured 64 out of 100 seats in the House of Delegates. In Georgia, Democrats won two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, the first time the party won a non-federal statewide office since 2006. Pennsylvania Democrats swept the major Bucks County contests, electing a Democratic district attorney for the first time. And, in Mississippi, Democrats broke the Republican supermajority in the State Senate.

Odd-Numbered Years Are Still Very Odd (for Election Polls)

Advertisement

Polling in off-year election cycles is challenging because it’s hard to know who will turn out to vote. This year, the polls significantly overestimated the Republicans in the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, which both had particularly high turnout for an off year. In 2021, polls had the opposite problem, as they overestimated Democrats.

Advertisement

Polls missed in opposite directions in 2021 and 2025

Each dot is a poll from the relevant governor’s election, positioned according to its polling error in the election.

Notes: Chart includes polls fielded in October or November of the election cycle. Polling error refers to the difference between the actual result margin and the poll margin. Sources: Polls from 2025 were collected by The New York Times, and polls from 2021 were collected by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and 538. The New York Times

Advertisement

Polling misses don’t necessarily carry over from cycle to cycle: Despite the leftward bias of the polls in 2021, they performed very well in 2022. After each election, pollsters look at the result and evaluate their performance, and then note where they went wrong. Analysis from groups like the American Association for Public Opinion Research frequently indicates that errors come from an incorrect sense of who shows up to vote. Pollsters then try to adjust for this error in the next election cycle.

The errors of 2025 may prove largely irrelevant, however, as the midterm elections will feature a larger, very different pool of voters with a new set of races, and a new host of lessons for pollsters to learn.

Advertisement

Off years are weird, and the polling errors they produce often are as well.

Continue Reading

News

Putin tells news conference that Kremlin’s military goals will be achieved in Ukraine

Published

on

Putin tells news conference that Kremlin’s military goals will be achieved in Ukraine

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Moscow’s troops were advancing across the battlefield in Ukraine, voicing confidence that the Kremlin’s military goals would be achieved.

Speaking at his highly orchestrated year-end news conference, Putin declared that Russian forces have “fully seized strategic initiative” and would make more gains by the year’s end.

Russia’s larger, better-equipped army has made slow but steady progress in Ukraine in recent months.

The annual live news conference is combined with a nationwide call-in show that offers Russians across the country the opportunity to ask questions of Putin, who has led the country for 25 years. Putin has used it to cement his power and air his views on domestic and global affairs.

This year, observers are watching for Putin’s remarks on Ukraine and the U.S.-backed peace plan there.

Advertisement

U.S. President Donald Trump has unleashed an extensive diplomatic push to end nearly four years of fighting after Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, but Washington’s efforts have run into sharply conflicting demands by Moscow and Kyiv.

Putin reaffirmed that Moscow was ready for a peaceful settlement that would address the “root causes” of the conflict, a reference to the Kremlin’s tough conditions for a deal.

Earlier this week, Putin warned this week that Moscow would seek to extend its gains in Ukraine if Kyiv and its Western allies reject the Kremlin’s demands.

The Russian leader wants all the areas in four key regions captured by his forces, as well as the Crimean Peninsula, which was illegally annexed in 2014, to be recognized as Russian territory. He also has insisted that Ukraine withdraw from some areas in eastern Ukraine that Moscow’s forces haven’t captured yet — demands Kyiv has rejected.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

Video: Trump Mocks Obama, Biden in His Presidential ‘Walk of Fame’

Published

on

Video: Trump Mocks Obama, Biden in His Presidential ‘Walk of Fame’

new video loaded: Trump Mocks Obama, Biden in His Presidential ‘Walk of Fame’

The White House unveiled new plaques near the Oval Office mocking some of President Trump’s predecessors. The new display distorts history and aligns with Mr. Trump’s worldview.

By Chris Cameron and Jackeline Luna

December 18, 2025

Continue Reading

Trending