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A disastrous megaflood could bring more than 8 feet of water to parts of California, scientists say

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A disastrous megaflood could bring more than 8 feet of water to parts of California, scientists say

Devastating wildfires and droughts will not be the one pure catastrophes that California will proceed to face. In line with new analysis printed on Friday, a disastrous megaflood might deliver a lot water to some areas of the state that it might fully drown whole cease indicators on a neighborhood avenue. 

Scientists say it is a part of an investigation right into a “believable worst case state of affairs.” Their analysis, printed in Science Advances, centered on two excessive flooding eventualities: one based mostly on latest historic local weather knowledge and one other that is based mostly on the projected local weather for the top of this century, from 2081-2100. 

Utilizing local weather fashions and high-resolution climate fashions, scientists discovered that California ought to brace for doable impression within the coming many years.

The historic mannequin, referred to as ArkHist of their research and based mostly on knowledge from 1996 to 2005, a megaflood might deliver a most of 85 inches to California’s Sierra Nevada. Underneath this state of affairs, the state would additionally see larger precipitation intensities, with coastal areas having eight out of 30 days and mountain areas having 14 out of 30 days be “heavy precipitation.” Total, broad areas might anticipate greater than a foot-and-a-half of precipitation, with widespread areas within the Sierra Nevada and a few spots within the Coast ranges, Transverse Ranges and Cascade Vary seeing greater than double that.

UCLA local weather scientist and analysis co-author Daniel Swain stated in a UCLA press launch that sooner or later modeling, “the storm sequence is greater in nearly each respect.” 

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“There’s extra rain total, extra intense rainfall on an hourly foundation and stronger wind,” he stated. 

Underneath the long run mannequin, which is predicated on a state of affairs of the continued fast progress of greenhouse fuel emissions and international warming, precipitation would accumulate from greater than two toes to greater than two-and-a-half – basically double what the state would see underneath the historic mannequin. 

Coastal areas would face 16 days and mountain areas would face 20 out of 30 days of heavy precipitation, with some areas of the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades seeing a full month. There’s additionally a 220% enhance in heavy precipitation hours.

This future modeling could possibly be disastrous for some localities. 

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“There are localized spots that recover from 100 liquid-equivalent inches of water (8.3 toes) within the month,” Swain stated in a UCLA press launch. “On 10,000-foot peaks, that are nonetheless considerably under freezing even with warming, you get 20-foot-plus snow accumulations. However when you get right down to South Lake Tahoe stage and decrease in elevation, it is all rain. There could be rather more runoff.”

In his personal evaluation of the analysis, Swain stated that the first concern for these findings is the elevated runoff into rivers and streams, which will increase the danger of floods. 

Their analysis discovered that underneath the long run excessive emissions state of affairs, runoff is 200 to 400% larger than historic values – numbers that may have large implications for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River flood plains. These areas, Swain stated, are the house of historic flood deposits, in addition to tens of millions of Californians. 

“Flood threat throughout an occasion like both of those eventualities will deliver widespread and extreme flood threat to almost the complete state,” Swain stated, “however the excessive will increase in projected floor runoff within the Sacramento and San Joaquin basins are of specific concern given the confluence of excessive pre-existing threat in these areas and a big inhabitants that has by no means skilled flooding of this magnitude traditionally.”

Each of the eventualities paint a grim forecast however local weather change and people persevering with to feed international warming via greenhouse fuel emissions are solely going to make the result worse, the researchers stated. 

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They discovered that for each 1ºC of world warming, the annual chance of an occasion based mostly on their historic modeling will increase quickly. As of this 12 months, local weather change has already elevated the chance of such an occasion by about 105% in comparison with 1920. 

And if the world continues on a path of excessive emissions over the subsequent 40 years, they stated, the chance will increase by about 374%. 

The highest graph reveals the cumulative incidence of maximum 30-day precipitation accumulations on a California statewide foundation as simulated by the CESM1-LENS ensemble. Information are drawn from the historic CESM1-LENS simulations for 1920–2005 and from the RCP8.5 state of affairs for 2006–2100. The underside graph reveals the annual chance of maximum 30-day cumulative precipitation occasions as a operate of projected international imply floor temperature (GMST; Okay) anomaly throughout the 40-member ensemble.

Science Advances

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“At the moment proposed emission discount targets would doubtless lead to a further 1-1.5ºC of warming past what we have already seen,” Swain stated on his web site. “So it’s extremely doubtless, at this level, that California will expertise additional massive will increase in megastorm occasions able to producing megaflood circumstances.” 

Such an occasion could be uncommon and devastating, however not in contrast to one thing California has seen earlier than. The Nice Flood of 1861-1862, researchers famous, turned the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys right into a “huge in-land sea practically 300 miles in size.” Consultants consider floods of that severity occur 5 to seven occasions each 1,000 years. 

It was that storm that led to the U.S. Geological Survey creating ARkStorm 1.0 in 2010, a system that constructed a hypothetical storm system of comparable severity to find out what its impression could be present-day. That analysis discovered {that a} large occasion such because the Nice Flood would create “widespread, life-threatening flooding” and trigger a complete financial loss surpassing $750 billion in 2010 {dollars}, or $1 trillion in 2022. Such a value would mark “the most costly geophysical catastrophe in international historical past so far.” 

The system used within the newest research was ARkStorm 2.0, “a brand new extreme storm and flood state of affairs reimagined for the local weather change period.”

And whereas the world should work to reduce international emissions and thus the danger of those sorts of megastorm occasions, there additionally have to be a concentrate on adaptation as a result of there will likely be some drastic change to at the very least some extent, scientists stated. 

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The danger, researchers stated, has been “broadly underappreciated.” 

“All of this implies that California actually must be planning for an rising threat of catastrophic flooding – threat that was extensively underestimated even absent local weather change, however now these dangers are rising additional,” Swain tweeted. On his web site evaluation, he stated that the state’s water and flood administration insurance policies and infrastructure should be “considerably revamped for our courageous new twenty first century local weather.” 

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Trump vows to sack SEC boss and end ‘persecution’ of crypto industry

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Trump vows to sack SEC boss and end ‘persecution’ of crypto industry

Donald Trump said he would end the “persecution” of the crypto industry, sack the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and free a convict the community views as a martyr.

In a direct pitch to cryptocurrency devotees at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on Saturday, the Republican candidate promised to end the Biden administration’s “crusade” against bitcoin.

“I pledge to the bitcoin community, that the day I take the oath of office, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ anti-crypto crusade will be over,” said Trump.

“On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler,” Trump said to a massive roar from the roughly 5,000 people seated in the audience.

Crypto’s embrace of Trump comes against the backdrop of a difficult few years for the industry, which has faced an aggressive clampdown from the SEC. Crypto is “a field that has been rife with fraud and manipulation”, Gensler said earlier this year.

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The SEC has pursued numerous crypto companies and executives, helping put FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao behind bars, and launched lawsuits against exchanges Coinbase, Kraken and Gemini, payments provider Ripple Labs and blockchain software company Consensys.

Trump on Saturday promised to end the “repression”, saying rules should be “written by people who love your industry, not by people who hate your industry”.

He also said he would instruct the Department of Treasury to abandon the creation of a central bank digital currency, and appoint a bitcoin and crypto advisory council.

The pitch was a dramatic reversal for Trump, who has previously claimed the value of cryptocurrencies was “based on thin air”, calling it “potentially a disaster waiting to happen.” He has described bitcoin as “a scam”.

But now both presidential candidates are courting the vote of ‘crypto bros’. Members of Kamala Harris’ campaign have met with people close to crypto companies in recent days in a bid to “reset” a relationship which soured during the Biden administration.

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Trump, meanwhile, is the first major party candidate to accept donations in cryptocurrencies — and claimed on Saturday his campaign had raised $25mn in crypto donations. His running mate, JD Vance, at one point owned up to $250,000 in bitcoin in a Coinbase account, according to his 2022 financial disclosure form.

The support for Trump was obvious all over the conference centre. Trumpers in branded gear sporting “Make Money Great Again” slogans mixed with attendees in Satoshi T-shirts, orange cowboy hats, dresses and high heels. Trump spoke on “Nakamoto” stage,” in reference to Satoshi, the pseudonymous developer of bitcoin.

Some attendees wore T-shirts calling to free Ross Ulbricht, who was given a life sentence in 2015 for creating the online black market Silk Road, by voting for Trump. The GOP presidential nominee’s promise to commute his sentence caused the second biggest cheer of the speech, after the call to fire Gensler.

“They slander you as criminals but that happened to me, too, because I said the election was rigged,” said Trump.

Earlier at the conference, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, who has given pro-Trump Pacs over $1.4mn this election cycle and will host a fundraiser for the ex-president next month, announced an initial $2bn lending program financing bitcoin. He added that his firm owns a “shitload of bitcoin”.

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Some attendees said that Trump’s presence alone could flip their vote, hoping that they will have for the first time an ally in the White House.

Investor and attendee Nick Smith said he did not vote for Trump in 2020 but would choose him today over Harris.

“I think they like his F-U attitude towards the establishment,” said Smith of Trump fans.

The price of bitcoin has jumped 10 per cent to over $68,000 since Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13. “I’m plugging for bitcoin to go over 70 — and even higher when the president speaks,” said David McIntosh, President of the Club for Growth, who is a Trump ally.

“Trump is a businessman and an entrepreneur — and he sees the opportunity that bitcoin affords the US and himself,” conference chief of staff Brandon Green said. “Over the past four years, you’ve seen a very hostile [Biden-Harris] administration towards the industry.”

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“Bitcoin is on the ballot,” Green later said on stage.

At the conference on Friday, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr promised to direct the US Treasury to buy 4mn bitcoins, make transactions between the digital currency and the dollar “unreportable” and “nontaxable.”

Among the guest speakers was Edward Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor who leaked a tremendous amount of information about US government surveillance. He told the crowd: “Cast a vote, but don’t join a cult.”

North Carolina Democratic lawmaker Wiley Nickel called for Harris to lead a party “reset” on crypto. Nickel, Ro Khanna and other Democrats in Congress sent a letter to the Democratic National Committee on Saturday calling for the next administration to “select a pro-innovation SEC chair”. He got a smattering of applause — but then was shouted down when he read on stage past Trump tweets critical of cryptocurrencies.

“I want to say this as politely and respectfully as I can. Donald Trump was president for four years. He did nothing on this issue,” said Nickel. “Right now, I can tell you: He is totally full of shit.”

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Additional reporting by Nikou Asgari

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Harris calls herself an underdog with momentum during a fundraiser speech

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Harris calls herself an underdog with momentum during a fundraiser speech

U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign fundraising event at the Colonial Theater in Pittsfield, Mass., on Saturday.

Stephanie Scarbrough/Pool/AFP via Getty Images


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Stephanie Scarbrough/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

PITTSFIELD, Mass. — In her first fundraiser since becoming her party’s candidate for president, Vice President Harris on Saturday called herself the underdog in the race but predicted that she and Democrats would win in November.

“We got a fight ahead of us and we are the underdogs in this race,” she said Saturday afternoon at the Colonial Theatre. “But this is a people-powered campaign and we have momentum.”

Harris told supporters that the race was a choice between two visions for the country — one looking toward the future and one that wants to undo the country’s progress.

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“Let us make no mistake. This campaign is not just about us vs. Donald Trump,” she said. “As we fight to move our nation forward, Donald Trump intends to take our country backward.”

The vice president also returned to a theme of freedom — freedom to vote, freedom from gun violence and reproductive freedom. She accused Trump of being a threat to women’s fundamental right to make decisions about their bodies and suggested that he would not stop there.

“Do we want to live in a country of freedom, compassion and rule of law or a country of chaos, fear and hate?” Harris said.

She also commented on Trump and his VP pick Sen. JD Vance’s latest attacks against her since her ascent as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

“You may have noticed, Donald Trump has been resorting to some wild lies about my record and some of what he and his running mate are saying, well, it’s just plain weird,” she said, drawing laughter from the crowd.

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According to the Harris campaign, the vice president was expected to raise more than $1.4 million at her first fundraiser. Roughly 800 people attended the event.

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Israeli civilians killed after rocket hits football field in Golan Heights

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Israeli civilians killed after rocket hits football field in Golan Heights

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At least eleven civilians were killed on Saturday after a rocket struck northern Israel, in the deadliest incident since hostilities began between the country and Lebanon-based Hizbollah last October.  

The rocket struck a football pitch in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, in the occupied Golan Heights, where children and teenagers were congregating, according to Israeli health authorities. Twenty people were injured.

Daniel Hagari, Israel’s chief military spokesperson, said it was the deadliest attack on Israeli civilians since Hamas’s October 7 assault that triggered the war in Gaza.

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“We witnessed great destruction when we arrived at the soccer field . . . the scene was gruesome,” said an Israeli first responder.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) blamed Iran-backed Hizbollah. “According to all our intelligence and assessments, this is a Hizbollah attack,” said an Israeli military official.

In an unusual move, Hizbollah denied responsibility for the strike. But the group controls southern Lebanon and has been trading cross-border fire with Israel for nearly 10 months.

Hizbollah “had absolutely nothing to do with the incident and categorically denies all false allegations in this regard,” the group said in a statement.

Hizbollah began to fire on northern Israel the day after Hamas militants attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7 last year, saying it was acting in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group.

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The rocket that hit Majdal Shams was one of dozens of projectiles and drones fired from Lebanon into northern Israel on Saturday afternoon, according to Israeli officials. Hizbollah said it had targeted multiple Israeli military installations in north-eastern Israel and the Golan Heights in retaliation for Israeli air strikes on several Lebanese border villages earlier in the day.

One strike on the village of Kfar Kila, which Israel said was aimed at a “terrorist cell” and weapons storage facility, reportedly killed three Hizbollah members.

According to Israeli data, before Saturday’s attack 29 Israelis, including 11 civilians, had been killed in northern Israel since the start of the Gaza war.

More than 350 Hizbollah fighters, including some mid-to-high ranking officers and commanders, and more than 100 Lebanese civilians have been killed in the hostilities so far, according to an FT estimate. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to hold consultations with his security chiefs later on Saturday, according to his office. The premier, who is still in the US after last week addressing the US Congress and meeting President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and ex-President Donald Trump, said he was seeking to return to Israel earlier than planned.

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Despite months of rising hostilities, the tensions between Israel and Hizbollah have not yet escalated into an all-out war. Yet the conflict on the Israel-Lebanon frontier has displaced some 200,000 people.

The Lebanese militant group has vowed to continue its attacks until the war in Gaza ends. For their part, Israeli officials have said that they are committed to returning the residents of northern Israel back to their homes, either through US-backed diplomacy or via “other means,” as Netanyahu has put it.

Earlier on Saturday, around 30 people were killed in IDF air strikes which targeted a school in central Gaza housing displaced people, according to health authorities in the Hamas-run enclave.

The Israeli military said Hamas militants were using the Khadija school as a “hiding place to direct and plan . . . attacks” and to store weapons.

The attack came after the IDF announced it was further “adjusting” an Israeli-designated humanitarian “safe zone” in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, ahead of a planned offensive in the area. Last week Israel renewed operations in the city, shrinking the “safe zone” and calling on Gazans to evacuate to the nearby Al-Mawasi coastal strip.

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“Remaining in this area has become dangerous,” the IDF said in a statement on Saturday.

Gaza ceasefire talks were set to resume on Sunday at a summit in Rome, with the participation of US CIA chief Bill Burns, the head of Israel’s Mossad David Barnea and Egyptian and Qatari officials.

Negotiations have stalled for several months due to fundamental gaps between Israel and Hamas. Israel on Saturday provided the US, Egyptian and Qatari mediators with an official response to the latest draft proposal, according to an Israeli official.

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