Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat in the battleground state of Wisconsin, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

With roughly a week until Election Day, Trump and Harris are almost tied in Wisconsin, 48% to 47%, the statewide poll of 500 likely voters found. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted Oct. 20 to 23.

But in Door County, Wisconsin, which has been a bellwether for the state, Harris has a slight edge. Harris leads Trump in that area, 50% to 47%, the poll of 300 likely Door County voters found. The results are still within the margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.

Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes, is among several important swing states that both Trump and Harris are eyeing to help catapult them to the presidency.

The state is regarded as a “Blue Wall” state – along with Michigan and Pennsylvania — that for decades were Democratic bulwarks. Trump in 2016 flipped all three of the states, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden won all three states back.

Most voters in Wisconsin have already made up their minds, with only 2% saying they’re still undecided.

One voter, Robert Olin of Milwaukee, said he will be voting for Trump because he’s disappointed with how the current administration has handled multiple policies – from the economy, to foreign policy in the Middle East, to issues at the U.S.-Mexico border. He said he believes Trump’s policies would improve the country.

“I strongly agree with his position of healing the country, becoming a country that follows its laws, that’s not being run by media or other parties, and that recognizes that there are practical ways to solve the economic problems,” Olin, 68, said of Trump. He voted for Trump in the last election, too.

For Olin, the high costs across the country have impacted him personally. He owns a coffee shop and said high inflation since the pandemic has “been very, very dramatic” on his business. The cost of operations to keep his business running have gone up and now, buying a cup of coffee has become a luxury for most customers.

“When our business is hurting, I’m hurting,” he said. 

But Mary Beth LaHaye, also of Milwaukee, is planning to cast her ballot for Harris. The 70-year-old said she is impressed with Harris’ “willingness to work across the aisle and bring both sides back together.” 

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“Our political system right now is broken,” LaHaye said. She said her top priorities are seeing Social Security and Medicare remain intact, as well as restoring reproductive rights. 

LaHaye, who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, said she’s concerned with Trump’s rhetoric and whether he would accept the election results.

“I know that if Trump were to win, Kamala Harris is not going to storm the Capitol,” she said. “But if Kamala Harris wins, I don’t know what President Trump could possibly say that might incite people to act violently, as he did on January 6, (2021).”

A wider gender gap

While there is typically a gender gap between supporters of Trump and Harris, David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the effects of the gap are more pronounced in the state.

In Wisconsin, Harris has a 14-point edge over Trump among women, 55% to 41%. But Trump is up 18 percentage points among men over Harris, 56% to 38%.

Harris’ margin of support among women is slightly behind the support she has across the nation, while Trump’s edge among men remains consistent. Nationwide, Harris has a 17-point edge over Trump among women voters, 53% to 36%, according to the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll. Among men, Trump has a 16 percentage point edge of Harris nationwide, 53% to 37%.

“(Trump) is identifying, or that, men are mobilizing behind Trump more than they did when Biden ran against Trump,” Paleologos said.

Paul Zarling, of Brookfield, Wisc., said he is voting for Trump because the former president already has a proven record. He added that he isn’t sure what Harris has done as vice president and feels like she has flip-flopped on issues.

“He was president before nothing happened, there was no doom and gloom,” said Zarling, 47, who has typically voted for Republicans in the past.

Mary Kay Wagner, 69, of South Milwaukee, already cast her ballot for Harris in this election. Wagner, who considers herself an Independent, voted for Biden in 2020. She said she believes Harris can improve the economy, as well as help restore access to abortion.

“The reasons I voted for her is that she is taking a very pragmatic approach to the issues that the country faces,” Wagner said. “Knowing that if we’re going to have a dynamic and growing economy, that makes it possible for everyone to thrive.”

In Door County, Paleologos attributed the gender gap, as well as a higher median age level, as the reason why the county may be trending better for the vice president.

“The demographics of Door County may deviate a little bit more than a typical bellwether in this election,” he said. “So I think that’s the reason why the bellwether is a little bit more Democratic friendly.”

Some voters still divided – and dissatisfied 

Although a majority of voters have already made their decision, there is still a small portion of voters in the state who still don’t know who they will support for president.

Susan Sauerberg, of Cedarburg, said access to abortions and women’s reproductive health are policies that are high on her list – and something she believes Trump will make even harder for women. But when it comes to foreign policy, especially Israel’s war in Gaza, Sauerberg doesn’t know if Harris can handle it.

“I’ll vote,” Sauerberg, 60, said. “I might just say a prayer and go with what my gut says at that moment.”

And for Samuel Beaver, a 20-year-old college student living in Madison, neither Trump nor Harris were a good option for him. Beaver, whose mom is Nicaraguan, said Trump was never an option for him because of his comments and policies around immigration. But Harris, he said, has walked back a lot of her policies, including on trans rights and gender affirming care.

Beaver said that he will be voting for the Green Party’s Jill Stein instead.

“The most pressing issue on my mind is like the United States’ foreign policy, specifically, like the dissimilarity between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party,” he said. “I feel like they both do the same actions.”

Sarah Paul, a 43-year-old resident of Random Lake, said she will be voting for Harris. She supports Harris’ passion for abortion access and LGBTQ issues, and believes Trump’s demeaning words about members of the military and people with disabilities is “not what a president should do.”

“Our choices aren’t perfect,” she said. “They rarely ever are.”

Wisconsin (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) has opened as a 3.5-point underdog against Iowa (5-3, 3-2) ahead of their Week 10 matchup at Kinnick Stadium.

The Badgers are coming off a disappointing result in Saturday’s 28-13 home loss to No. 3 Penn State. They led 10-7 at halftime and trailed 14-13 heading into the fourth quarter, but then allowed two long touchdown drives in the final period and couldn’t muster the offense to hang with one of the best teams in the country. Braedyn Locke was just 22 of 42 and threw a pick-six in the loss. Tawee Walker averaged 2.7 yards per carry.

The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, thrashed a bad Northwestern team 40-14 in Iowa City, running for over 200 yards and four touchdowns. They forced three turnovers, held the Wildcats to 163 yards of offense, and had all of their 40 points by the end of the third quarter.

This is a big game for both teams, who will looking to go to 4-2 and remain in the hunt in the Big Ten standings. It also happens to be a nationally-televised primetime game.

Wisconsin has a slight 49-46-2 lead in the rivalry series against Iowa. The Badgers won six of seven between 2013 and 2019, but the Hawkeyes have won two in a row and three of the last four. This year’s battle for The Heartland Trophy should be a good one.

5 things that stood out from Wisconsin’s loss to Penn State

Madison, Wisc. — Penn State used a 21-3 second half run to avoid being upset at Camp Randall Stadium by beating Wisconsin 28-13 in front of a sold-out crowd. It was hardly the Lions’ prettiest win in a season full of victories but not always fulfilling ones. This game was different than some of the ones before it, of course. Head coach James Franklin’s team had to overcome the loss of starting quarterback Drew Allar, first-team defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton, and right tackle Anthony Donkoh to grind out its seventh triumph of the year.

“A couple things to jump out to me right away, just a gutsy win on the road against a team that’s really trending in a real positive direction, tough environment to play in,” Franklin said. “Just a gutsy win. You lose your starting quarterback, you lose your starting d-end, you lose your start in the offensive tackle. Next man up. No excuses. I just thought it was a gutsy, culture win, from my perspective, I also thought it was, you look at Beau Pribula; the other thing that stood out to me isand unselfish team and unselfish players. Here’s Beau Pribula in a quarterback battle, waiting for his number to be called, and when his numbers called, is able to capitalize and take advantage of it.”

Here’s what is being said locally and nationally about the Lions on Sunday.

Penn State ‘looks for real’

That’s the take from On3 national college football writer Ari Wasserman. He moved the Nittany Lions up to No. 4 in his weekly top 10 poll.

“After a third quarter pick-six turned the game, Pribula and Penn State’s offense added two more scores to turn the game into an easy 28-13 win,” Wasserman writes. “Penn State looks for real, even though it lost Allar and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton. It has a chance to prove it next weekend when it hosts Ohio State.”

Read the full story here.

The Lions face major uncertainty before their biggest game to date

USA Today Matt Hayes started his weekly recap with this obvious angle. Allar’s health will be squarely in the spotlight this week. Beau Pribula will start if the Ohio native cannot, of course. Either way, Penn State finds itself in a less-than-ideal situation ahead of the top-five showdown.

“At some point Pribula will have to make plays in the passing game,” Hayes writes. “That means new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, the heralded addition this offseason from Kansas, will have a week to find what works for Pribula — and how to attack an Ohio State defense giving up 12.7 points per game.

“Even if Allar is available, he most certainly will be limited. He wasn’t held out of the second half as precaution; the Lions were trailing 10-7. Kotelnicki will have to get either quarterback (or both) ready to play against a top 10 pass defense giving up 172 yards per game. The Buckeyes held Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola to 152 yards passing in a 21-17 win Saturday, with no touchdowns and an interception.”

Read the full story here.

The Lions are looking forward to their chance to prove they can beat the Buckeyes

That’s what PennLive reporter Johnny McGonigal discovered during postgame interviews. Everyone knows the program’s recent history opposite Ohio State. The 2024 version of the Nittany Lions aim to add a new, more positive chapter to that storybook next weekend.

“Some might argue the stakes aren’t as high this time around,” McGonigal writes. “With the 12-team College Football Playoff, the Nittany Lions could hypothetically lose to Ohio State, win out and still make the field and compete for a national title. Maybe that reality will subconsciously allow Penn State to play looser, to feel as though the entire season isn’t riding on one afternoon.

“But that’s not how these players will be thinking going into next weekend. This is a battle-tested group that fought its way to an undefeated record, and they don’t want to give it up. … This time next Saturday, we’ll know if the Nittany Lions were ready for it or not.”

Read the full story here.

Is momentum a real thing?

BWI’s Nate Bauer latched onto something James Franklin said in his postgame news conference. He said that Jaylen Reed’s third quarter pick six changed the momentum in the game. He added that “momentum is a real thing.” Will that apply to the Lions’ meeting with Ohio State? Time will tell.

“Set to take on the Buckeyes in one of the season’s most anticipated games, dating back to last summer, the Nittany Lions enter November with everything in front of them,” Bauer writes. “An expanded playoff changes the complexion of the game’s outcome. 

“A win propels Penn State into a legitimate conversation as one of the country’s best teams this season. And, a loss doesn’t eliminate that possibility. Can the Nittany Lions channel their grittiest survival instincts into one of opportunism? They’ll be tasked with doing as much in the coming days.”