Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat in the battleground state of Wisconsin, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

With roughly a week until Election Day, Trump and Harris are almost tied in Wisconsin, 48% to 47%, the statewide poll of 500 likely voters found. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted Oct. 20 to 23.

But in Door County, Wisconsin, which has been a bellwether for the state, Harris has a slight edge. Harris leads Trump in that area, 50% to 47%, the poll of 300 likely Door County voters found. The results are still within the margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.

Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes, is among several important swing states that both Trump and Harris are eyeing to help catapult them to the presidency.

The state is regarded as a “Blue Wall” state – along with Michigan and Pennsylvania — that for decades were Democratic bulwarks. Trump in 2016 flipped all three of the states, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden won all three states back.

Most voters in Wisconsin have already made up their minds, with only 2% saying they’re still undecided.

One voter, Robert Olin of Milwaukee, said he will be voting for Trump because he’s disappointed with how the current administration has handled multiple policies – from the economy, to foreign policy in the Middle East, to issues at the U.S.-Mexico border. He said he believes Trump’s policies would improve the country.

“I strongly agree with his position of healing the country, becoming a country that follows its laws, that’s not being run by media or other parties, and that recognizes that there are practical ways to solve the economic problems,” Olin, 68, said of Trump. He voted for Trump in the last election, too.

For Olin, the high costs across the country have impacted him personally. He owns a coffee shop and said high inflation since the pandemic has “been very, very dramatic” on his business. The cost of operations to keep his business running have gone up and now, buying a cup of coffee has become a luxury for most customers.

“When our business is hurting, I’m hurting,” he said. 

But Mary Beth LaHaye, also of Milwaukee, is planning to cast her ballot for Harris. The 70-year-old said she is impressed with Harris’ “willingness to work across the aisle and bring both sides back together.” 

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“Our political system right now is broken,” LaHaye said. She said her top priorities are seeing Social Security and Medicare remain intact, as well as restoring reproductive rights. 

LaHaye, who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, said she’s concerned with Trump’s rhetoric and whether he would accept the election results.

“I know that if Trump were to win, Kamala Harris is not going to storm the Capitol,” she said. “But if Kamala Harris wins, I don’t know what President Trump could possibly say that might incite people to act violently, as he did on January 6, (2021).”

A wider gender gap

While there is typically a gender gap between supporters of Trump and Harris, David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the effects of the gap are more pronounced in the state.

In Wisconsin, Harris has a 14-point edge over Trump among women, 55% to 41%. But Trump is up 18 percentage points among men over Harris, 56% to 38%.

Harris’ margin of support among women is slightly behind the support she has across the nation, while Trump’s edge among men remains consistent. Nationwide, Harris has a 17-point edge over Trump among women voters, 53% to 36%, according to the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll. Among men, Trump has a 16 percentage point edge of Harris nationwide, 53% to 37%.

“(Trump) is identifying, or that, men are mobilizing behind Trump more than they did when Biden ran against Trump,” Paleologos said.

Paul Zarling, of Brookfield, Wisc., said he is voting for Trump because the former president already has a proven record. He added that he isn’t sure what Harris has done as vice president and feels like she has flip-flopped on issues.

“He was president before nothing happened, there was no doom and gloom,” said Zarling, 47, who has typically voted for Republicans in the past.

Mary Kay Wagner, 69, of South Milwaukee, already cast her ballot for Harris in this election. Wagner, who considers herself an Independent, voted for Biden in 2020. She said she believes Harris can improve the economy, as well as help restore access to abortion.

“The reasons I voted for her is that she is taking a very pragmatic approach to the issues that the country faces,” Wagner said. “Knowing that if we’re going to have a dynamic and growing economy, that makes it possible for everyone to thrive.”

In Door County, Paleologos attributed the gender gap, as well as a higher median age level, as the reason why the county may be trending better for the vice president.

“The demographics of Door County may deviate a little bit more than a typical bellwether in this election,” he said. “So I think that’s the reason why the bellwether is a little bit more Democratic friendly.”

Some voters still divided – and dissatisfied 

Although a majority of voters have already made their decision, there is still a small portion of voters in the state who still don’t know who they will support for president.

Susan Sauerberg, of Cedarburg, said access to abortions and women’s reproductive health are policies that are high on her list – and something she believes Trump will make even harder for women. But when it comes to foreign policy, especially Israel’s war in Gaza, Sauerberg doesn’t know if Harris can handle it.

“I’ll vote,” Sauerberg, 60, said. “I might just say a prayer and go with what my gut says at that moment.”

And for Samuel Beaver, a 20-year-old college student living in Madison, neither Trump nor Harris were a good option for him. Beaver, whose mom is Nicaraguan, said Trump was never an option for him because of his comments and policies around immigration. But Harris, he said, has walked back a lot of her policies, including on trans rights and gender affirming care.

Beaver said that he will be voting for the Green Party’s Jill Stein instead.

“The most pressing issue on my mind is like the United States’ foreign policy, specifically, like the dissimilarity between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party,” he said. “I feel like they both do the same actions.”

Sarah Paul, a 43-year-old resident of Random Lake, said she will be voting for Harris. She supports Harris’ passion for abortion access and LGBTQ issues, and believes Trump’s demeaning words about members of the military and people with disabilities is “not what a president should do.”

“Our choices aren’t perfect,” she said. “They rarely ever are.”