#7 Purdue (19-6, 2nd Big 10, 11-3) vs #16 Wisconsin (19-5, 4th Big 10, 9-4)

Wisconsin This Season

This is your typical Wisconsin team under Greg Gard. They’re a solid team in the top quarter of Big Ten teams. They started the season on a heater, winning their first eight games, including a 103 – 88 massacre of ninth ranked Arizona. They dropped their first game in their Big 10 opener against Michigan at home and then dropped their next two games on the road to Marquette and Illinois. After dropping three consecutive games, the Badgers got it figured out and went on another seven-game winning streak, including a game where they blew the doors off of Iowa 116 – 85 in the Kohl Center. That streak ended on the road against UCLA in the second game of their west coast swing. They returned to Madison, knocked off Nebraska with ease at home but then dropped the next game on the road against Maryland. They enter tomorrow’s game on a three-game win streak against the dregs of the conference, including a win over perennial doormat Indiana.

I’m looking at their roster, and I’m not sure you’ll find a more surprising player in college basketball than Missouri/Colorado State transfer guard John Tonje. Tonje started his career in the 2019-’20 season for Colorado State, appearing in all 31 games as a true freshman, while averaging a modest four points a game. Over the next three seasons, he grew into an impact player for the Rams, averaging 15 points, while knocking down 39% of his shots from behind the arc. He utilized his Covid year last season to transfer to Missouri, but an offseason foot injury derailed his time in Columbia before it got started. He attempted to play through it early in the season, starting four of Missouri’s first eight games, but he shut it down after the eighth game of the season after the foot injury proved to be too much of a hinderance.

He’s back for his sixth season of college basketball and the 23-year-old is giving Wisconsin what Missouri thought they were going to get last season. He’s been on an absolute tear, averaging 19 points a contest, and has gone on a couple epic scoring binges, including a 41-point heater against Arizona where he put up 41 points on 8 of 14 shooting, mostly on the strength of an epic 21-22 night from the foul line. He’s solidly in the mix for Big Ten player of the year and will be the first player listed on Purdue’s scouting report.

Wisconsin on Offense

Greg Gard has built a brutally efficient offense in Madison this season. They’re currently tenth in the nation in adjusted efficiency and can score with any team in the nation when they’re rolling. This isn’t what I consider a typical Wisconsin team. If you’re looking for a rock-fight, look elsewhere, because the Badgers are a well-tuned offensive machine and are at their best when the score is in the 70s, or better yet, the 80s.

Despite starting two close-to-seven-footers in Winter and Crowl, their offense is built around the perimeter players. In the half-court, look for them to play either four-around-one or five-out with a big eventually diving to the basket, either off a pick-and-roll or down screen from one of the guards. They will occasionally feed the diver or exploit a mismatch in the paint if they catch the defense in a switch, but generally speaking, that’s not how they want to score.

Wisconsin, in a way, does some of what Purdue did last season, in terms of statistics, but they go about it a different way. They want to shoot layups, free throws and three-pointers, but instead of playing inside out through the post like Purdue did with Zach, they rely heavily on drives from their wing players to get to the line. That’s where their two Johns (Tonje and Blackwell) do most of their damage. When Wisconsin gets the ball to the wing, expect Tonje or Blackwell to attack the defense with a diagonal dribble drive to the paint. Tonje and Blackwell are pretty much the inverse of Purdue’s Colvin and Heide in terms of playing style. When they get the ball in their hands, they’re looking to get into the heart of the defense with their size and strength and either draw a foul, draw a defender to up a three-point opportunity for a teammate, or a layup for themselves. The general idea is to spread the floor and let their strong wing play dictate the game. I really, really, really, don’t like this matchup for Purdue. If Colvin is going to have a game that gets him back into the regular rotation, tomorrow may be his best opportunity. As it stands now, Fletcher Loyer is going to have to check either Tonje or Blackwell, and after going back and watching his “defense” from the Michigan game, I don’t think he’s up to the task. I guarantee his ability to stop Tonje or Blackwell will be tested early and often.

One of my main concerns is foul trouble for the Boilermakers. Tonje and Blackwell are both going to try and attack from the wings, and they’re both excellent at drawing fouls. Tonje is 35th in the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes at 6.5 per game and Blackwell is 362nd at 4.6 per game. They love to attack the angle, get their defender on an outside hip, turn the corner, and make the help defender commit a foul, and Trey Kaufman-Renn hasn’t seen a foul he isn’t interested in committing recently.

To compound matters, when they get to the line, they’re the best team in the nation at cashing in from the stripe. Their 84.1% team free throw percentage is the best in the nation. The key to having a good free throw percentage is getting the right guys to the line, and that’s the Badgers specialty. Tonje in particular, is the very definition of a foul merchant. He has attempted a team high 157 free throws and he’s jarred 144 of his attempts (92%). For a little perspective, TKR leads Purdue in free throw attempts with 138 and has made 88 (64%). Fletcher Loyer is second on Purdue with 83 attempts and 71 makes (86%). In essence, Tonje gets fouled like TKR and is a better free-throw shooter than Fletcher Loyer. John Blackwell is second on Wisconsin in attempts with 96 and is shooting 81% from the line. Point guard Max Klesmit is third on the team in attempts with 64 and is shooting 85%. If you want some insight into how Wisconsin wants to attack the Boilermakers, look no further than foul shots attempted numbers. Wisconsin’s starting guards/wings have attempted 317 free throws this season, and Purdue’s starting guards/wings have attempted 191. The Badgers are going to attempt to punish the Boilermakers inability to guard of the dribble and live at the line.

Speaking of shooting, while Wisconsin tends to get their best free throw shooters to the line, the same can’t be said about their three-point shooting. Point guard Max Klesmit leads Wisconsin in attempts with 143 but he’s only shooting 29%. Keep in mind, coming into this season, Klesmit was one of the best shooters in the Big Ten. Last season he hit 40% of his 166 attempts. This is one of those games where the scouting report says to let him shoot, but he’s hit close to 40% of his attempts in the previous two seasons. He seems like a guy that is one make away from going on a shooting binge and Purdue’s inability to defend off the bounce, paired with Wisconsin’s willingness to kick it out to shooters, makes this game a prime opportunity.

Outside of Klesmit’s inexplicable (based on past production) regression, the Badgers can shoot the ball 1-5. Power forward Nolan Winter, in particular, is a knockdown shooter from distance, hitting 23 of his 59 attempts on the season. Center Steven Crowl won’t hesitate to hoist one up from the perimeter either, he’s shooting 33% from behind the arc, but takes enough that you have to respect his outside shooting ability. Then there is back-up point guard Kamari McGee, who leads the nation in three-point percentage, connecting on 31 of his 56 attempts from deep (55%). He gets the ball at the top of the key, passes to a wing, and if/when his defender tries to dig down on a wing drive, it’s all over. I’m not sure I’ve seen a guy hit more straight away 3’s off simple action.

If Purdue doesn’t stop the straight-line drive from the wing, and they’ve shown no interest in doing so recently, they’re going to need to put up 90+ points to win this thing.

Wisconsin on Defense

Like Michigan, Wisconsin plays two centers and uses them to defend the rim. They’re going to leave the dunker position (either Caleb or Heide) open on drives and use their length to recover. Furst kept getting swatted by Michigan not only because of a questionable set of hands, but also because Michigan wanted whoever was playing the dunker position to try and beat them. When your secondary post defender is 6’11”, it’s a tough ask for the dunker to finish at the rim in the best of circumstances. TKR and Braden fell into that trap against Michigan and gave up good shots in the paint to try and get a better shot at the basket.

Even though it looks like a better shot, it’s not, that’s the shot Wisconsin wants. They’re going to try and defend the basket and the three-point line and invite Purdue to score on mid-range jumpers. Purdue can win that way, but they can’t do what they did against Michigan in the second half and abandon the mid-range after missing a couple and trying to force the ball to the rim with a couple of 7-footers lurking on the back line. An uncontested eight-to-ten-footer is a better shot than Caleb or Camden trying to finish over taller players at the basket. If they’re giving Trey and Braden wide open looks from the mid-range, they need to take them.

In general, Wisconsin plays solid man-to-man defense and tries to force you into taking uncomfortable shots. They play conservatively and force you to make shots over defenders instead of gambling. Their guards have solid size at every position, stay compact and connected, and make you make shots. The good news is that Purdue is much better at making shots, and has more players capable of making shots, at home. Cox and Harris, in particular, are far better in the friendly confines of Mackey than in hostile environments. Purdue needs their “big 3” to be big, but they need everyone else to at least be serviceable. If the Boilermakers bench gets blanked like they did against the Wolverines, Wisconsin wins the game.

Prediction

Ken Pom

Purdue: 77

Wisconsin: 73

Drew

Purdue: 87

Wisconsin: 86

I’m taking Purdue to win this game because I don’t pick teams to beat Purdue at home, but I do so with hesitance. If this were on a neutral floor, I’d take the Badgers because I don’t like this matchup. Wisconsin does things on offense that Purdue has a hard time stopping, and I could see that leading to early TKR foul trouble. If TKR isn’t on the floor, I don’t think Purdue can score with the Badgers unless they’re hitting some shots and (knocks on wood), the Boilermakers are bound to start shooting better, and there’s no better time to start than at home against Wisconsin.