LAS VEGAS — Notre Dame and Ohio State winning their semifinal playoff games meant the wisdom of Tom Petty, once again, rang true.
“Even the losers / Get lucky sometimes.”
Sometimes, fortune smiles upon minnow bettors whose stacks of losing tickets provide so many bookmarks, coasters and, yes, even novel wrapping paper.
On Dec. 12, I studied the new 12-team College Football Playoff with a keen eye to newly released title-game exacta odds.
My college-pigskin rudder is points-per-play, ratios available at TeamRankings.com. The tale of teams is contained in those fractions.
On offense and defense, and overall margins, Notre Dame had sparkled since early October. “Past three games” reveals how teams are currently running.
I applied those figures to project each playoff game, best squad moving on. I played out the tournament, producing the finale exacta. I aimed to go into the championship game with a sweet ticket on both teams, guaranteeing profit.
That exercise compelled me to obtain South Point tickets on Notre Dame over Ohio State, 30-to-1 odds, and Ohio State over Notre Dame, at 25-1. Alas, the Buckeyes and Irish play for the national title Monday night.
“That’s awesome!!!” Long Island handicapper Tom Barton wrote in a text message.
“Looks like you played it 100% correct,” Southern California professional bettor Tommy Lorenzo told me. “Bull’s-eye, well done. TeamRankings is a great tool. I use a lot of its info for my power rankings.
“You’re sitting pretty, my friend.”
The two best teams
Barton entered the week 3-0 in this new playoff, and he sounded as if he’d be fine taking a pass on the championship game.
Unless the point spread ekes up to 10 somewhere. It mostly opened around 9 to 9.5 points in favor of Ohio State. Last Sunday night, it got shaved to 8. Monday afternoon, it hit 7.5 before pumping back to 8.5 by Wednesday.
“I haven’t finished my homework on the championship game,” Barton said. “I tend to lean with the points. The over looks interesting, too, but I’m not sure if I’ll play anything.”
Monday, DraftKings posted a 45.5 total. Wednesday, it hit 46.5, -108 over (or risk $108 to win $100), -112 under. Odds subject to change.
Lorenzo said he felt fortunate to be holding a title ticket on Notre Dame, at 11-1, plus Ohio State at +340.
They represented the two top teams in his power ratings, “so I pulled the trigger.” He added, “I do kick myself, however, for not attacking the championship exacta on those two, given my conviction on those two being the best teams overall.”
More maneuvering
I have more work to do, since I’ve been on Notre Dame since the summer. I’m bullish on Irish coach Marcus Freeman, so I bought a 22-1 Irish title ticket Aug. 31.
It lost early to Northern Illinois but has won 13 in a row, and I nabbed a 30-1 ducat on the Irish on Nov. 21 at the Westgate -SuperBook. So I reap more profit with a Notre Dame victory.
To even that out, I’ll stake positions with Ohio State, likely via in-game maneuvering.
Should the Irish tally an early touchdown, say, the Bucks’ moneyline will shrink closer to even (from around -380), providing an optimal situation to bet on Ohio State and ensure my dividends will be nearly equal, no matter who wins.
I did scramble for a +560 Penn State ticket on New Year’s Eve, just in case, among other moves. I had already bought into the Nittany Lions, at 24-1, on Aug. 31 at William Hill.
There are other debits, and credits. For the semifinals, I played a moneyline parlay of Ohio State to Notre Dame, turning two units into five. In sum, I’ll likely net around 55 units of playoff profit.
Howard’s Will
A lifelong Notre Dame supporter, Lorenzo said he ultimately believes Ohio State will get the victory; the figures back up that outcome.
Ohio State boasts a 0.617 points-per-play ratio over its last three games; Notre Dame’s offense, at 0.374, has been faltering.
Turnovers might be an equalizer, though, as the Irish’s ball-hawking defenders snatched an NCAA-best 32 combined fumbles and interceptions this season. Senior free safety Xavier Watts yanked down six of those picks.
All of which funnels into this column’s final words from Paul Stone, arguably the country’s finest purveyor of college-pigskin prognostications.
He noted the game opening Ohio State -10.5 at Circa Sports, which drew early action on underdog Notre Dame. Wednesday, Vegas had the Buckeyes as consensus 8-point favorites.
From East Texas, Stone said he respected those early waves of cash on the Irish, but he views Ohio State as the “more-complete team” and will back the Buckeyes on the point spread.
“They have found another gear in the playoffs and have too much firepower for Notre Dame, in my opinion,” he said. “Ohio State defeated a talented trifecta of teams — Tennessee, Oregon and Texas — all by 14 points or more.
“The Buckeyes have averaged 7.5 yards per play in those victories, while allowing only 4.2 yards per play.”
The key is Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, the 6-4, 237-pound senior who left Kansas State for Columbus.
“If [he] takes care of the ball and the Irish don’t post a defensive or special-teams touchdown,” Stone said, “I think the Buckeyes win by double digits.”
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