Big Ten football kicks off on the shores of Lake Michigan this weekend as No. 2 Ohio State hits the road against Northwestern. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State is still behind undefeated Oregon and Indiana in the Big Ten standings and, with the loss to the Ducks, needs to stay winning with the Hoosiers coming up next weekend.

Northwestern moved to 2-4 in Big Ten play after getting past Purdue last time out but sits 120th in passing output and 126th out of 134 FBS teams in scoring production with 18 points per game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Wildcats this weekend.

Ohio State is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 95.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Northwestern as the presumptive winner in the remaining 4.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 19,060 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Wildcats edged out OSU in the other 940 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 26.7 points better than Northwestern on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Wildcats.

That’s because Ohio State is a 28.5 point favorite against Northwestern, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

The book didn’t list any moneyline odds for the game, given the Buckeyes are such big favorites.

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wildcats will make things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Northwestern is getting 53 percent of bets to either win outright in the upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 29 points in a loss.

The other 47 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the big point spread.

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams and third nationally with a 92.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total projection of 11 games this season.

Northwestern’s postseason hopes are just about dashed, but not extinguished just yet.

The model projects the Wildcats will win 4.6 games in ‘24.

That translates to a 10.9 percent shot to become bowl eligible this season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

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When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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A reminder to Ohio State football fans who attend games: You don’t much matter. At least not to TV networks.

Let’s dive into the current hullabaloo over OSU having too many noon kickoffs. The Buckeyes are in the midst of six consecutive nooners, which has not happened since … ever? More on that in a moment, but first to the issue at hand: Fox Sports loves noon games, while some/many fans who attend games do not. Who wins? Fox, of course. Money always wins.

It’s not just an OSU thing. Two weeks ago, Penn State fans took to social media to vent about the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions kicking off at noon instead of in prime time. Fans also showed up at ESPN’s GameDay, which was at State College despite ESPN not broadcasting the game, to protest the game time. The target of their NSFW chants? Fox, which selected the game for its Big Noon Saturday broadcast because of the likelihood of strong ratings, which typically average close to 7 million viewers. Makes sense. The game between No. 3 Penn State and No. 4 Ohio State pulled in 9.4 million viewers. 

As the Big Ten’s primary rights holder, Fox gets first dibs in the annual network draft that determines kick times, and always chooses Ohio State vs Michigan. Fox, CBS and NBC then take turns choosing teams, and because Ohio State is a top brand, the Buckeyes often get picked by Fox for Big Noon Kickoff. But not always, because the “draft” process means Fox does not have complete control over which teams it gets to televise. Fox did get first choice in picking the Buckeyes for four noon games, but last week’s Purdue game “fell” to them, and the network was only too happy to make it a Big Noon Kickoff.

FOX president of insights and analytics Mike Mulvihill told The Athletic that “There’s a belief that prime time is somehow inherently better (than noon), but that’s not really matched up by the analysis.”

Noon games typically do better than prime time, Mulvihill said, adding, “It’s our job to put the schools that we’re partners with in front of as many people as possible. If we can provide our schools as much exposure as possible, that should not just benefit Fox, but that should benefit those programs. What we’ve found over the last six years is that it’s very clear that putting our best game on at noon is what delivers the biggest audiences for these games.”

This week’s OSU game at Northwestern is at noon on the Big Ten Network, 61% of which is owned by Fox. The Buckeyes finish the regular season at home against Indiana (noon on Fox) and Michigan (noon on Fox). Were the Hoosiers 2-8 instead of 10-0, Fox would not have chosen the game for its Big Noon Saturday. Originally, the Indiana game was scheduled to appear on the Big Ten Network, but as the season unfolded and the Hoosiers kept winning, Fox swapped IU-OSU with Northwestern-OSU and made the Buckeyes and Hoosiers their Big Noon Saturday game, while moving the Ohio State-Northwestern game to BTN.

Then there is this: Ohio State and Michigan have stipulations in their TV deals with Fox, CBS and NBC that prohibit the networks from scheduling the schools at night in the final three games of the regular season, a source confirmed to the Dispatch. The Buckeyes and Wolverines could choose to accommodate a request to play a late-season night game — and OSU did so last Nov. 11, playing Michigan State at 7:30 p.m. on NBC — but neither program has been especially receptive to the idea. Maybe that changes for Ohio State under athletic director Ross Bjork, who in his previous job as AD at Texas A&M was more used to playing night games closer to Thanksgiving, but former OSU AD Gene Smith leaned against it.

Given OSU’s reservations about playing late-season night games, next week’s Indiana game never stood much chance of starting after sundown. If Buckeyes fans want to complain about not having enough night games, at least after Daylight Savings Time ends, maybe take it up with Ohio State.

Part of me wonders what the fans’ big stink is with noon games. I don’t recall complaints prior to 1985, when almost every game kicked at 1 p.m. Then again, fans had nothing to compare early afternoon kicks to; the first night game was not until 1985 and 3:30 p.m. games were not yet a thing. Now that Buckeye Nation has experienced the increased excitement of night games, noon kicks can feel like snoozers by comparison. And the last thing Ohio Stadium needs is more yawning spectators.

Who wants to watch a game in freezing temperatures?

Positives? Noon games mean higher temperatures – no fun in September but welcomed in November – and allow many Ohio travelers to return home before dark.

Some of the complaints about noon game include: 

∎ Less time to tailgate. It’s apparently not enough to suck down breakfast screwdrivers (or mimosas, in the chichi stadium lots); fans want more time to party.

∎ There is a school of thought that says “hydrated” crowds bring more enthusiasm to the Shoe. A later game also quells the stress of having to rush out the door at dawn to make kickoff.

∎ Slightly more challenging for recruiting. Ohio State coach Ryan Day said Tuesday that “I’ve got to deal with a lot of fan backlash for other things than the times of games, so I’m going to leave that for other people to deal with.” But Day added that noon games can make it more difficult for out-of-state recruits to attend.

Is 3:30 p.m. the sweet spot to make most fans happy?

It’s not OSU’s call, but 3:30 p.m. feels like the sweet spot in kickoff times; not too early to require long-haul travelers to rise before dawn and not too late to turn the Horseshoe into a Baby Boomer morgue.

A 60-something friend of mine explained that “Noon kills the whole day. I’m so tired after that I need a nap. 3:30 is about the best. You can get something done early before heading to campus. I’m old, so night games are hard to dress for. Too warm or too cold? And driving a bike or car in the dark after a beer or two isn’t ideal.”

Fox hears your complaints, whining, whatever you want to call it. But the network is more concerned with eyeballs on screens than butts in seats. When it comes to kickoff times, football fans need to get with the program. The TV program.

roller@dispatch.com

@rollerCD

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The Big Ten Conference college football teams in the state of Michigan are struggling this season. As the Michigan Wolverines currently sit at 5-5 overall and the Michigan State Spartans are 4-5, the state’s NFL team is certainly not facing the same struggles.

The Detroit Lions are rolling in 2024 and despite a rough performance in the first half versus C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans this past week, Dan Campbell’s squad fought back in the second half and pulled off a surprising comeback. The 26-23 victory moves the Lions to 8-1 on the year.

Even though the Lions are full steam ahead towards a playoff birth and potential Super Bowl run, a new mock draft for 2025 has the Lions selecting an Ohio State star to further improve the roster.

The 33rd team posted a first-round mock draft with Detroit selecting offensive guard Donovan Jackson with the No. 31 pick.

Notably, the city of Detroit is no stranger to being the home of Ohio State offensive linemen. Taylor Decker has been the starting left tackle for the team since 2016. Not only has he spent his whole nine-year NFL career with the Lions, but his contract extension this offseason likely means that he will be there much longer as well.

In 2020, the Lions drafted offensive guard Jonah Jackson who played in 57 games with the team prior to signing with the Los Angeles Rams as a free agent in the spring. Could a different Jackson from Ohio State be a solid fit with the Lions?

Absolutely.

Donovan Jackson is a tough offensive guard with lots of playing experience at the collegiate level. As injuries have occurred to his left on Ohio State’s line, Jackson has found himself in a very new position. He has been tasked with bumping out to left tackle.

This has likely been a positive for him. It shows off his versatility and his willingness to do whatever is needed to win games. At 6’4″, Jackson does not have true tackle length and will likely not be asked to play anything other than guard at the next level. That being said, if the worst case scenario appears, Jackson can be ready.

With Decker and Jackson potentially manning the left side of Detroit’s line, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should feel confident about running to the left side.