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Ohio State vs. Nebraska football prediction: What the analytics say

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Ohio State vs. Nebraska football prediction: What the analytics say


Coming off an open week and following its first loss of the season, No. 4 Ohio State returns home against conference rival Nebraska on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that picks matchups.

Ohio State is 1 point away from being undefeated after a loss at Oregon two weeks ago and needs to not get caught looking ahead to another critical road test coming up at Penn State next week.

Nebraska is in danger of falling under .500 in Big Ten play after getting trounced by new contender Indiana last week, playing some solid defense up to that point, still allowing under 18 points per game, but averaging only 25 on the other side, ranking 90th nationally.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the simulations are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers.

Ohio State is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes come out ahead in 19,300 of the index’s simulations, while the Cornhuskers edge out OSU in the other 700 predictions.

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When it comes to projecting a margin of victory, the index predicts a sizable win for the Buckeyes on the scoreboard, too.

Ohio State is projected to be 29.7 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against the Cornhuskers, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

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And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -6000 and for Nebraska at +1800 to win outright.

Thus far, most bettors are giving the edge to the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ohio State is getting 61 percent of bets to beat the Huskers and cover the big spread in the process.

The other 39 percent of wagers project the Cornhuskers will either win the game in an upset, or more likely, will lose the game by 25 points or fewer.

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 78 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 10.7 games this season.

Nebraska is eighth in the conference with a 0.1 percent shot at the new 12-team playoff.

And the Cornhuskers are projected to win 6.5 games this season by the index’s calculations.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

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Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

  1. Oregon (59)
  2. Georgia (2)
  3. Penn State
  4. Ohio State
  5. Texas
  6. Miami
  7. Tennessee
  8. LSU
  9. Clemson
  10. Iowa State
  11. BYU
  12. Notre Dame
  13. Indiana
  14. Texas A&M
  15. Alabama
  16. Kansas State
  17. Boise State
  18. Ole Miss
  19. Pittsburgh
  20. Illinois
  21. Missouri
  22. SMU
  23. Army
  24. Navy
  25. Vanderbilt

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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2 found dead in vehicle in Ohio park, police say

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2 found dead in vehicle in Ohio park, police say


Two people were found dead in a vehicle at a park in North Canton, Ohio, authorities said. 

The North Canton Police Department said in a news release on Facebook that officers were called to Eastwoods Park around 11 a.m. on Sunday for reports of a suspicious vehicle. When officers arrived, they found a Honda with its engine running and two unresponsive people inside. 

The two people, a 24-year-old man and a 22-year-old woman, were pronounced dead at the scene. They have not been identified as of Monday night. 

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Police said the preliminary findings show carbon monoxide levels in the vehicle were at levels exceeding what is considered safe. The North Canton Fire Department responded to the scene to help confirm the findings. 

“At this time, there are no signs of foul play and no indication of violence or struggle associated with this incident,” North Canton police said in the news release.

The Stark County Coroner’s Office will determine the cause and manner of death for the two people. No other information was released by law enforcement. 

“This remains an active investigation, and no further information is available at this time,” the news release said. 

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Every Ohio State Player’s Remaining Eligibility After NCAA Adopts Five-Year Eligibility Model

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Every Ohio State Player’s Remaining Eligibility After NCAA Adopts Five-Year Eligibility Model


The NCAA’s new five-year, age-based eligibility model could make a big impact on Ohio State’s 2027 football roster.

This year’s roster is unaffected by the change; all players who were out of eligibility after the 2025 season are still out of eligibility, and all players who were eligible for 2026 under the previous rules – including seventh-year seniors Ja’Kobi Jackson and Hunter Welcing – remain eligible. Looking forward to 2027, however, fourth-year seniors who would have exhausted their eligibility this season will have the opportunity to play another year of college football should they want to do so.

Players who already took a redshirt year – which will no longer exist under the new model – still have the same number of years of eligibility remaining as they did before last week’s rule change. Players who hadn’t taken a redshirt, however, now have a fifth year of eligibility at their disposal, while teams will no longer have to worry about limiting the number of games their freshmen play to preserve their fifth year of eligibility.

With that in mind, we’re taking a look at how much eligibility all of Ohio State’s 90 scholarship players have remaining under the newly simplified model and how that could impact Ohio State beyond this season. (Note: Players in bold now have an additional year of eligibility than they did under the NCAA’s previous five years to play four seasons model.)

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Fifth (or Seventh) Year Seniors in Final Year of Eligibility (13)

QB Justyn Martin
RB Ja’Kobi Jackson
WR David Adolph
TE Bennett Christian
TE Hunter Welcing
C Carson Hinzman
OT Vasean Washington
DE Beau Atkinson
DE Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
S Earl Little Jr.
S Terry Moore
S Brenten “Inky” Jones
LS Dalton Riggs

All of these players have already taken redshirt years and are already in at least their fifth year out of high school, so all of them will exhaust their eligibility after the 2026 season.

One possible exception to the rule is Martin, who told Eleven Warriors in January that he expected to receive a sixth year of eligibility from the NCAA after missing the entire 2025 season with an injury. While hardship waivers for injuries will no longer be granted under the new model, Martin remains eligible to apply for a waiver until July 31 because his injury occurred before the new model was implemented.

Fourth-Year Seniors with Two Years of Eligibility (17)

WR Brandon Inniss
WR Devin McCuin
WR Kyle Parker
TE Mason Williams
OT Phillip Daniels
OT/G Austin Siereveld
G Luke Montgomery
G/C Joshua Padilla
DE Qua Russaw
DT Jason Moore
DT James Smith
DT Will Smith Jr.
DT John Walker
LB Christian Alliegro
CB Cam Calhoun
CB Jermaine Mathews Jr.
P Joe McGuire

Until last week’s rule change, seven players in this group had not redshirted and were in line to exhaust their eligibility in 2026: Inniss, McCuin, Williams, Montgomery, James Smith, Alliegro and Mathews. Now, each of those Buckeyes has the option to play another year of college football in 2027 if they want to.

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Whether they actually will is another question. Montgomery and Mathews already weighed entering the NFL draft after last season before returning for another year, and all seven of them have the potential to be selected in next year’s draft if they perform well this fall. Siereveld, who already knew he still had two more years of eligibility because he redshirted his true freshman year at Ohio State in 2023, is another strong candidate to enter the 2027 NFL draft even though he’ll still have another year of eligibility, as he’s been projected as a potential early-round pick next spring.

Although McGuire is now older than the NCAA’s new age limit, having graduated from high school in 2018, he remains eligible to play two more years of college football because athletes who had already started their careers are able to use either the previous eligibility model or the new age-based model – whichever is more beneficial to them. McGuire is in his fourth year with the Buckeyes and redshirted his first year at Ohio State in 2023 before becoming the Buckeyes’ starting punter in 2024.

Jermaine Mathews Jr. now has a fifth year of eligibility, but he’ll have a decision to make after this season on whether to use it.

Juniors with Three Years of Eligibility (13)

QB Julian Sayin
WR Jeremiah Smith
TE Max LeBlanc
OT Devontae Armstrong
OT Ian Moore
G Gabe VanSickle
DT Eddrick Houston
LB Payton Pierce

LB Garrett Stover
CB Miles Lockhart
S Jaylen McClain
S Leroy Roker III
K Connor Hawkins

Three more years of Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State? It’s technically now a possibility, though even two more years of Smith in scarlet and gray is realistically a pipe dream for Buckeye fans, as Smith is projected to be the first non-quarterback selected in the 2027 NFL draft.

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Other third-year Buckeyes who now have three more years of eligibility instead of two include Houston, Pierce and McClain, who didn’t redshirt as freshmen and are now in line to be three of Ohio State’s defensive stars as juniors. Any one of them could potentially go to the NFL after just one more year at Ohio State, let alone two, so the Buckeyes shouldn’t bank on having them on their 2028 roster, but they now at least know they won’t be punished for playing backup roles as freshmen should they desire to play five years of college football.

Sayin is another Buckeye on this list who will have an NFL decision to make after the upcoming season even though he already had three more years of eligibility, so it’s highly unlikely he’ll still be Ohio State’s starting quarterback in 2028. The rest of the Buckeye juniors are potential candidates to play three more years of college football, though Moore could emerge as an NFL draft prospect within the next two years if he wins one of Ohio State’s starting tackle jobs.

Sophomores with Four Years of Eligibility (19)

QB Tavien St. Clair
RB Bo Jackson
RB Anthony “Turbo” Rogers
RB Isaiah West
WR Phillip Bell
WR De’zie Jones
TE Brody Lennon
TE Nate Roberts
OT Carter Lowe
G/C Jake Cook
DE Zion Grady
DE Epi Sitanilei
LB TJ Alford
LB Eli Lee
LB Riley Pettijohn
CB Dominick Kelly
CB Devin Sanchez

CB Jordyn Woods
S DeShawn Stewart

Despite playing too many games to redshirt last season, Jackson, West, Roberts, Grady, Alford, Pettijohn, Kelly and Sanchez all now have four more years of eligibility along with the freshmen who did redshirt last year. Ohio State isn’t going to count on still having any of them on their 2029 roster – each of them has already flashed the potential to be an NFL draft prospect after just three or four years – but that option is now on the table for all of them.

Freshmen with Five Years of Eligibility (28)

QB Luke Fahey
RB Favour Akih
RB Legend Bey
WR Brock Boyd
WR Jerquaden Guilford
WR Chris Henry Jr.
WR Jaeden Ricketts
TE Nick Lautar
OT Sam Greer
OT/G Landry Brede
G Maxwell Riley
C/G Tucker Smith
C/G Mason Wilhelm
DE Darryus McKinley
DE Dre Quinn
DE Khary Wilder
DT Jamir Perez
DT Emanuel Ruffin
DT Damari Simeon
LB Cincere Johnson
LB Braxton Rembert
LB C.J. Sanna
CB Jordan Thomas
CB Jay Timmons
S Khmari Bing
S Blaine Bradford
S Simeon Caldwell
S Kaden Gebhardt

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Calculating eligibility for Ohio State’s newest freshman class over the course of its career will be simpler than it’s ever been before. All 28 members of the Buckeyes’ 2026 class will now begin their careers with five years of eligibility instead of four, and all of them will still have four more years of eligibility next season no matter how much they play this season.

That allows the Buckeyes to play every freshman who earns a spot on the depth chart this season as much as they want without having to worry about redshirt implications. For players like Henry, Bey, Boyd and Timmons who already made a big push for playing time this spring, Ohio State wasn’t likely to worry about preserving redshirts anyway. But it could be a big benefit for freshmen who aren’t quite ready to play major roles yet but are good enough to earn backup jobs or special teams duty, as Ohio State will now be able to play those players in an unlimited number of games without having to worry about long-term eligibility implications.



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Good news: Summer has arrived in north central Ohio. Bad news: It brought a flamethrower

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Good news: Summer has arrived in north central Ohio. Bad news: It brought a flamethrower


You wanted summer weather?

You got it.

For everyone who spent spring and early summer wondering if the sun had permanently relocated to Florida, congratulations.

Your reward is a week that may have you questioning every life decision involving long pants.

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The National Weather Service in Cleveland said Sunday that north central Ohio is headed for a prolonged stretch of hot, humid weather, with temperatures climbing into the middle 90s by midweek and heat indices pushing toward the triple digits.

The area includes Richland, Ashland and Knox counties.

After a perfectly reasonable Sunday with highs in the low 80s and a mix of clouds and sunshine, Mother Nature will likely turn the thermostat to “Ohio sauna” as residents head back to work.

Monday reaches the upper 80s before the real heat arrives. Forecast highs climb to 94 degrees Tuesday and peak around 96 degrees Wednesday, flirting with daily record highs. Thursday won’t provide much relief, with temperatures expected to remain in the lower 90s.

The NWS has issued a heat advisory in effect from Tuesday at noon to Thursday at 8 p.m.

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Even overnight temperatures won’t offer much comfort. Lows will struggle to fall below the mid-70s. That means air conditioners across north central Ohio are about to earn every penny of our rapidly climbing electric bills.

The NWS warns the combination of heat and humidity could create dangerous conditions for anyone spending extended periods outdoors.

You remember the advice from last summer, right?

Drink plenty of water. Take frequent breaks in air conditioning or at least a cooling fan. Avoid strenuous afternoon activities unless sweating through every article of clothing is part of the plan.

Complete outdoor chores during the morning hours. Wear lightweight clothing and check on elderly neighbors and others who may not have access to air conditioning.

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Never leave children or pets inside parked vehicles. When in doubt, always check when you leave your vehicle.

Please.

The first half of the week should stay mostly dry as a large dome of high pressure parks over the Great Lakes. By Friday, however, the atmosphere may finally decide enough is enough.

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to return Friday and continue into the Independence Day weekend, adding potential natural fireworks to the evening skies.

The storms could briefly interrupt backyard cookouts and fireworks preparations, but they’ll also offer at least a chance to knock temperatures down a few degrees.

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Even so, highs are expected to remain around 85 to 90 degrees through next weekend, keeping conditions well above normal for early July.

If you’re looking for one positive takeaway, remember this: six months ago people in north central Ohio were complaining about scraping ice off windshields, shoveling snow and wondering if spring had been canceled.

This week, nobody will be asking where summer went.





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