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Port: Armstrong campaign releases polling showing 41-point lead over Miller

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Port: Armstrong campaign releases polling showing 41-point lead over Miller


MINOT — The North Dakota Republican Party’s gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller and U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong has been heated. Both candidates have spent furiously on promoting their campaigns, and at times

the rhetoric between the two has grown vicious.

But if polling just released to me by the Armstrong campaign is to be believed, the race isn’t particularly close. In a survey conducted by Guidant Polling & Strategy, which was conducted May 4-8, Armstrong has a commanding 41-point lead over Miller.

The survey shows Armstrong leading Miller among Republican primary voters 60% to 19%, with another 19% undecided. That lead remains consistent among voters aged 65+ (Armstrong 61%, Miller 19%), self-described conservative voters (Armstrong 62%, Miller 19%) and voters who say they have an established opinion of both candidates (Armstrong 64%, Miller 24%).

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The poll suggests that voters view Armstrong far more favorably than they do Miller. Among likely Republican primary voters, Armstrong is viewed favorably by 69% of respondents, with just 19% having a negative view.

Miller, meanwhile, had mixed numbers. Just 32% of respondents said they view her favorably, 33% said they view her unfavorably, and after her campaign spent over $1.2 million on broadcast and cable television ads alone, 22% said they have no opinion of Miller.

“The last career politician who claimed to be up 40 points wound up losing in a landslide to Doug Burgum,” Miller spokesman Dawson Schefter told me in response to this poll. “Confident campaigns don’t release internal polls and spend hundreds of thousands of dollars falsely attacking their opponents. This is a clear attempt to spin the media from a candidate on the defensive about his record as a politician and trial lawyer. I’d put this poll in the trash where it belongs.”

To Schefter’s point, all polling released by a campaign should be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns release polling data to serve their electoral agenda, not inform the public. We also don’t have any independent and publicly available polling to filter our perception of Armstrong’s numbers.

But that doesn’t mean these numbers are wrong. While I’m not sure I would have guessed that Armstrong’s lead was this prodigious, I have felt for some time that the congressman is winning. Armstrong’s poll strikes me as accurate. Or, at least, in the ballpark. The poll does jibe with information about other polls from independent sources that have been shared with me, though I wasn’t made privy to the specific details.

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Tammy Miller, right, speaks at a press conference on Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2022, where Gov. Doug Burgum introduced her as North Dakota’s next lieutenant governor.

Jeremy Turley / Forum News Service

Gov. Doug Burgum, who is backing Miller’s campaign (though not quite as ardently as I had expected; more on that in a moment), might rebut these numbers by alluding, as Schefter did, to polling in the 2016 gubernatorial primary,

which showed him down 49 points

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to Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem roughly a month after he announced his campaign. Burgum, of course, went on to win the primary in a landslide by nearly 21 points.

Burgum was fond of touting that poll during his long-shot presidential bid earlier this political cycle, but I’m not sure it’s an apt comparison for Miller. That poll was released in early March. It’s currently mid-May, with primary day looming on June 11. Also, remember that 2016 was the year of the outsider. It was the year Donald Trump stormed through the Republican primary to the White House. Burgum cast himself as a political outsider that cycle, and whatever the truth of the claim, the voters bought it. But that was eight years ago.

Miller’s campaign has seemed like a copy-and-paste of Burgum’s 2016 effort, right down to the buzzwords and much of the personnel. Only, it’s not 2016 anymore, and Miller, for all her personal achievements and compelling characteristics, isn’t Burgum.

The lazy analysis of Burgum’s political success assumes his money is the difference maker. And, don’t get me wrong, Burgum’s ability and willingness to spend gobs on his political agenda matters, but crediting his success to spending overlooks the fact that he’s always been a strong candidate. He’s warm and charismatic in person. He can work a room. He knows how to win people over on a personal level.

Burgum’s campaign strategies can be hit-and-miss. For example, he spent millions trying to sway legislative races as governor,

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and the results were decidedly mixed.

But when Burgum himself is the candidate, when he’s personally engaged and not just spending money on ads and mailers, his success rate is much higher.

One thing we’ve learned about Miller during the campaign process is that she’s uncomfortable with in-person retail politics, and I think that’s cost her.

So, too, has Burgum’s absence on the campaign trail. We’ve all witnessed the spectacle of our current governor campaigning for a spot in a second Trump administration, be it as vice president or a cabinet position. That project has kept Burgum out of state a lot and left him with little time outside of gubernatorial duties to devote to Miller’s campaign.

In summary, how accurate is this poll? Though I wish we had publicly available independent polling corroborating the results, my gut tells me it’s fairly close to reality. Which isn’t to say that Miller can’t move the needle between now and June 11.

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Rob Port

Rob Port is a news reporter, columnist, and podcast host for the Forum News Service with an extensive background in investigations and public records. He covers politics and government in North Dakota and the upper Midwest. Reach him at rport@forumcomm.com. Click here to subscribe to his Plain Talk podcast.





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North Dakota

UND LGBTQ community thriving despite unclear future

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UND LGBTQ community thriving despite unclear future


GRAND FORKS – UND is home to a flourishing LGBTQ community thanks to efforts from students, staff and faculty, though its future is shrouded in uncertainty as states across the country propose and enact bans against diversity, equity and inclusion at public institutions.

Jeff Maliskey became the first director of UND’s Pride Center in 2022 after having steered it in an interim capacity since 2017. Under his stewardship, the LGBTQ community has taken an increasingly active role on campus.

“You start small, and then it’s grown all over campus,” Maliskey said. “That’s why you really do see us kind of as this hub in the state, this hub in little Grand Forks, North Dakota, as the ones leading the initiatives.”

Darin Buri, the College of Engineering and Mines Facility and library manager, credits the increased visibility of the community to Maliskey.

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“Jeff’s been wonderful,” Buri said. “It wasn’t always visible, but I think it’s gotten a lot more visible since Jeff started in his position.”

Maliskey joined the university staff in May 2015, during a time when marriage equality was a political hot topic. This would culminate in the Obergefell v. Hodges Supreme Court decision the very next month, which made same-sex marriage a constitutionally protected right.

The month before Maliskey came to Grand Forks, the North Dakota Legislature

voted down a bill that would prohibit discrimination against LGBTQ individuals

.

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“(It wasn’t) a great conversation that I was hearing around campus from other faculty and staff, from students that were engaging in conversations,” Maliskey said. “So I almost felt like I was retreating a little bit back into the closet, if you will.”

Over two years later, in the 2017 fall semester, Maliskey was approached by the university’s vice president to take the interim leadership position of the newly founded Pride Center.

The center was created as a result of student advocacy, providing a physical space as well as resources and support for a community that has been active on campus since the creation of the Ten Percent Society, now known as the Queer and Trans Alliance, in the 1980s. Both were firsts for the state, according to Maliskey, creating a picture of a university leading efforts for queer and trans inclusion in North Dakota.

From the 1980s onward, students were responsible for leading these efforts, Maliksey said. Once the Pride Center was established, staff and faculty began to assume a greater role, using the Pride Center to provide students with support and resources as well as forming their own advocacy group, the LGBTQ Staff and Faculty Association.

During the most recent academic year, the Pride Center held 43 events, including the LGBTQ+ Higher Education Day-Long Institute and week-long events like Coming out Week and Trans Awareness Week. The center also provided academic support for LGBTQ students, such as study tables and academic challenges that were successful in raising the GPA of some of its participants, according to the center’s annual report.

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Maliskey said the effect has been felt by students. The number of students involved with the Pride Center and the programs it offers has increased every year and the climate for LGBTQ students on campus has improved since.

However, the national conversation surrounding diversity, equity and inclusion doesn’t bode well for the center and the support it provides for students.

According to the Chronicle Of Higher Education

, 85 bills that would prohibit public colleges and universities from having diversity, equity and inclusion offices and staff have been introduced across 28 states and the U.S. Congress since 2023. Of those 85 bills, 14 have become law in states like Florida, Texas and most recently Utah, where LGBTQ resource centers have closed their doors for good.

In North Dakota,

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such a bill was signed into law last April

, though it extended only to prohibiting mandatory diversity, equity and inclusion — commonly referred to as DEI — training and diversity statements. Offices that receive funding from public universities, such as UND’s Pride Center, can remain open for now.

“We don’t have the federal protection and it’s really up to the states,” Maliskey said. “It’s not looking great or promising for us right now.”

According to Maliskey, closing down these centers could result in students, faculty and staff leaving the schools and the states to go to institutions elsewhere. This doesn’t just apply to queer and trans students, Maliskey said, but allies as well.

A closure could also result in an increase in mental health concerns, which Maliskey said is already being experienced by states that have lost their services.

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“Are we going to be here tomorrow? Oh, I hope,” Maliskey said. “I hope we can continue to do our work to support students. We know there’s a need, because if we don’t we know the outcome isn’t great for our students.”

In the past year, 39% of LGBTQ young people nationwide seriously considered attempting suicide and 12% attempted suicide, according to

survey data from the Trevor Project

, a nonprofit focusing on suicide prevention and crisis intervention for LGBTQ youth. Additionally, among those surveyed who reported living in very accepting communities, the suicide rate was less than half as those who reported living in very unaccepting communities.

Such figures reflect the importance for LGBTQ adults on campus to be more open about their identity and support the students, according Bridget Brooks, an instructional designer and the current chair of the LGBTQ Staff and Faculty Association’s Board of Executives.

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“I think being visible, if it saves one person’s life, it’s worth it,” Brooks said. “And it’s worth anything that could ever possibly happen to myself if someone else’s life is saved. So that’s why we need to be visible.”

The LGBTQ Faculty and Staff Association was created in the summer of 2021 after Maliskey, at the time the assistant director for the Hillyard Center and LGBTQ Initiatives, brought together a group of 10 faculty and staff.

According to Maliskey, the LGBTQ Staff and Faculty Association began as an informal network of LGBTQ staff and faculty who met to have conversations and build a community

Even though there’s a large number of LGBTQ faculty and staff on campus, previous activity was almost exclusively the territory of students, according to Buri. This meant that until the association was formed, there wasn’t any formal organization for faculty and staff.

“Now with this organization, we meet with the students a lot and participate in a lot of the things that they do,” Buri said. “So it’s a way for us to be visible and supportive of them as well.”

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Maliskey said the association has not only increased the community’s visibility on campus, but it has also been able to connect students with faculty for research and academic support. If a student wants to engage in queer and trans research, Maliskey is able to connect them with faculty in the group who do that kind of work.

Another part of the association is the Out List, a voluntary list of currently 25 staff and faculty members who have chosen to openly identify as LGBTQ to amplify the community’s visibility and networking opportunities on campus.

“We all hold different identities,” Maliskey said. “No matter where you’re at, you can find somebody to connect with.”

Visibility has been an essential part of the UND LGBTQ community’s longevity, according to Buri. It’s also helped change minds and create a more tolerant climate on campus for the community.

“When you’re visible you’re not just a number or a statistic anymore,” Buri said. “And people know you and all of a sudden it kind of changes the dynamic, how they think.”

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Despite an unclear future for the Pride Center and the LGBTQ community in general, Buri said he maintains hope.

“I think that it’s going to take all of us working together, but I think the future is bright,” Buri said. “We’ll get past whatever obstacles we have and we’ll do OK. We always have.”





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West Fargo, two North Dakota tribes awarded $28 million

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West Fargo, two North Dakota tribes awarded $28 million


WASHINGTON (KMOT) – The U.S. Department of Transportation awarded more than $28 million to West Fargo, Spirit Lake Tribe and the Three Affiliated Tribes.

The majority of the funds went to West Fargo for the installation of a road-rail separation with pedestrian, bike and ADA accommodations.

The Tribes were given partial of the funds to design road maintenance and address drainage issues, road widening, and parking accessibility for all.

The money comes from the Rebuilding American Infrastructure with Sustainability and Equity, or RAISE, grant program.

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North Dakota University System Chancellor moving to another job

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North Dakota University System Chancellor moving to another job


BISMARCK, N.D. (KFYR) – North Dakota University System Chancellor Mark Hagerott will be moving to other job opportunities.

The chancellor released this statement about his work for the state: “It has been wonderful to be the chancellor and lead the North Dakota system for almost a decade. I am proud of the work we have done as a system during my tenure. I look forward to ensuring the continued success of the students we serve by assisting the Board during the upcoming legislative session.”

Hagerott said he will continue to serve the state of North Dakota as a professor of artificial intelligence and human security.

State Board of Higher Education Chair Tim Mihalick said the State Board of Higher Education is thankful for his leadership: “He has provided a systemwide vision to higher education that is student-centric and fiscally responsible. We look forward to continuing our work together through the next year and a half, to include the upcoming legislative session, and persisting in our shared systemwide higher education goals.”

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He said his transition to teaching will be beneficial to the state in the future.



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