Democrats see a rare opportunity in Nebraska’s U.S. Senate race, where independent candidate Dan Osborn is mounting an unexpectedly competitive challenge against Republican incumbent Deb Fischer.

Nebraska has backed Republicans in every presidential election since 1964. The state remains solidly conservative, due to large swaths of rural counties that regularly give GOP candidates 80 or 90 percent of their votes. Democrats rarely bother investing money or resources in Nebraska, which backed former President Donald Trump by nearly 20 points against President Joe Biden in 2020.

But Osborn, a moderate independent whose platform blends positions from both parties, may be making the race closer than initially expected. If Osborn prevails, he could serve as a crucial tiebreaking vote in the Senate, which is expected to be narrowly divided regardless of who wins the most competitive races in November.

A flurry of recent polls showed good news for Osborn. A Bullfinch Group survey, conducted among 400 likely voters from September 27 to October 1, showed him with a 5-point lead over Fischer (47 percent to 42 percent).

An Osborn-sponsored SurveyUSA poll showed him up one point (45 percent to 44 percent). It polled 558 likely voters from September 20 to September 23. A Global Strategy Group poll, conduced among 600 likely voters from August 26 to August 29, showed Fischer up one point (43 percent to 42 percent).

Kevin Smith, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, told Newsweek that while a polling error is always possible, the “weight of evidence” suggests it may actually be a close race “given there are now a number of polls all triangulating on the general inference of a tight contest.”

“Both of the campaigns and increasingly outside funders are certainly treating this as a competitive race,” he said.

Osborn is running a “high visibility campaign” and has an “appealing back story,” Smith said, noting that his anti-establishment sentiment may be resonating with Nebraska voters “who are feeling fed up with both of the major parties.”

But he needs to not only win over Democrats and independents, but also at least some Republicans in order to win statewide in Nebraska. That remains a challenge, Smith said.

“There may well be a real thirst for a viable option outside of the traditional Republican/Democrat choice, and Osborn could well be tapping into that,” he said.

Fischer wasn’t expected to have a closer race. She rarely breaks from the GOP party line and has not had any scandals that would alienate voters in the state. She also received the endorsement of Trump, who remains popular with Nebraska Republicans.

“To the best of my knowledge there’s nothing in Deb Fischer’s record that should be unduly upsetting to the core conservative Republican voter that is the big constituency in a statewide race in Nebraska,” Smith said.

He added that some polls show Fischer with among the lowest approval rating in the Senate, such as a 2020 Morning Consult survey that placed her in the top 10 least popular senators. Still, he said it is a “stretch though, to think that would lead to a non-trivial chunk of Republican voters giving serious consideration to voting for an independent.”

Osborn, Fischer Fundraising Compared

While polling is tight, Fischer has maintained a fundraising advantage over Osborn.

At the end of June, the Republican incumbent had raised $6.2 million, while Osborn raised $1.6 million, according to the nonprofit OpenSecrets. She had spent $3.8 million, while Osborn had spent just under $1 million.

Fischer still had nearly $3 million in the bank, compared to Osborn’s $650,000

Osborn, a mechanic, military veteran and former leader of his manufacturing union, supports policies from both the Democratic and Republican parties. The issues page on his website emphasizes his support for a “secure border,” as well as gun rights. He also supports legalizing cannabis and reproductive rights.

He has not attached himself to either party, and he has not said who he would caucus with in the Senate, previously suggesting he might vote with whichever party has a majority.

“Nebraskans want a senator who listens to them,” said Dustin Wahl, Osborn’s communications director, in a statement to Newsweek. “He’s going to work for the regular folks of this state, and they can tell he’s the real deal.”

Fischer, however, has sought to highlight some of his more liberal views in an attempt to tie him to Democrats.

Derek Oden, a spokesperson for Fischer, told Newsweek that Osborn is a “liberal Democrat in disguise” who’s “funded by the same billionaire Democrats supporting Kamala Harris.”

If elected, Osborn would join a small but impactful group of independents already in the Senat. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine are both independents who caucus with Democrats. Senators Krysten Sinema and Joe Manchin are also independents who have left the Democratic Party, though they are both retiring this cycle.

Osborn Seeks to Avoid Fate of Other Independents

Democrats living in red states backed independent candidates in a handful of previous Senate races in the past few years, hoping that an independent may be able to win support from enough Republicans to pull off an upset. But these efforts fizzled in states like Alaska and Kansas, leading some to be wary of Osborn’s chances.

In 2014, Democrats hoped independent candidate Greg Orman could defeat Senator Pat Roberts, a Kansas Republican, as several polls at the time showed him in the lead. But Roberts ultimately won by double digits, with more than 53 percent of the vote to Orman’s 42.5 percent.

A similar story played out in Alaska in 2020, when independent Al Gross faced off against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. Polls leading up to the election showed a tight race, with a handful even showing Gross taking a lead over the incumbent. Sullivan ended up winning handily, with 54 percent of the vote to Gross’ 41 percent.

Four years earlier, some polls also showed independent candidate Evan McMullin in a tight race against GOP Senator Mike Lee in Utah. Lee went on to win with by about 10 points, with 53 percent of the vote to McMullin’s 43 percent.

All three independents overperformed expectations—with Orman and McMullin running in years expected to be difficult for Democrats—but ultimately fell short. Osborn will spend the next month on the campaign trail in a bid to win over enough voters to try to avoid a similar fate.

Smith said it is a possibility that Nebraska’s Senate race could see similar results.

“What the polls may be picking up is an element of general dissatisfaction, at least among some Republicans and independents, with the GOP candidate or the party in general,” he said. “But it’s obviously one thing to express a theoretical preference on a survey and another to cast an actual vote.”

How Republican Is Nebraska?

In 2020, Trump won Nebraska by 19 points, securing 58 percent of the vote in the state to Biden’s 39 percent.

Trump won all but two counties, Douglas County, which includes the liberal outpost of Omaha and Lancaster County, which contains the college town of Lincoln.

That marks a leftward shift from 2016, when Trump won the state by 25 points, with 59 percent of the vote, while Hillary Clinton won 34 percent. Omaha and its suburbs have drifted increasingly Democratic in recent years, but not enough to cancel out the large number of Republican votes in the rural, western part of the state.

The Cook Political Report rates the presidential race in Nebraska as safely Republican. However, it is one of two states, along with Maine, to split its Electoral College votes. Trump is expected to win the two statewide votes, as well as two of its three Congressional districts.

The Senate race is rated as “Likely Republican,” meaning it is “not considered competitive at this point” but has “the potential to become engaged.”

Update 10/3/24 5:40 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.