As I watched Nebraska go down to Iowa on Black Friday of 2024, I told myself something:

“No matter what happens this offseason, don’t forget how you feel about this program at this exact moment.”

Nebraska had just blown a dominant performance against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the 13-10 loss. You know the stats. A 20-5 edge in first downs. Outgaining Iowa 334-164, with 75 of those Hawkeye yards coming on a single play. Iowa rushed for 49 yards on 26 attempts. 1.9-per!

And the Hawkeyes still won.

“Sit in this exact moment, and don’t a single piece of news over the course of the next nine months sway you,” I told myself. “They need to prove themselves.”

And so, that’s what I did.

When they added new offensive linemen, I remained skeptical. Even additions of a couple of impressive wide receivers made me wonder why they hadn’t also improved the running back room. The defense lost experienced bigs in the interior; why were they going to improve again? The hire of Mike Ekeler as special teams coordinator was a genuinely inspired move, but why did they settle at defensive coordinator after Tony White went to Florida State?

January turned to March, which turned to summer and Big Ten Media Days. I wasn’t budging. I still had enough doubts. The Groin Kick Chronicles project was a great window into the last decade of Husker football. If anything, it was a reminder that Matt Rhule has been as responsible for some of the worst losses for the program as Scott Frost or Mike Riley were. And the ways in which Nebraska lost games in 2023 and 2024 – poor in-game decisions by the head coach, in particular – weren’t just going to fix themselves overnight.

As excited as I was about the potential “Year Three” bounce for Matt Rhule, there were enough reasons to doubt it could happen at this version of Nebraska in this version of college football. By the time we arrived at game week against Cincinnati, I hadn’t changed my tune. 7-5, with losses against Michigan and Minnesota in the first two months, followed by UCLA, Penn State, and Iowa late.

“Until they prove me wrong, I’m going to expect this to happen.”

And then the season kicked off.

A hard-fought win over Cincinnati was some of the proof I was looking for. Blowout wins over Akron and Houston Christian – the type of wins we hadn’t seen in recent years – had me believing that, at the very least, they were better.

I went against my pre-season priors and picked them to win against Michigan.

I was wrong; they lost. But look at the bright side! They repeatedly answered back when Michigan went up by double digits. I was grading them on a curve, even while incredibly disappointed with the defensive showing, but the offense got back up after being shoved in the dirt.

I liked them against Michigan State and Maryland. They responded to the adversity of each game, putting together 24 points across their final five drives against the Spartans. So what that the second and third quarters were absolutely terrible; in the end, they didn’t blink. Down 31-24 in the fourth quarter at Maryland, the defense got stops on three straight drives, while the offense scored ten points across their final two drives, including a touchdown with 1:08 remaining to win the game.

They were winning games they wouldn’t have in previous years and even with issues continuing to pop up, the schedule surely wouldn’t feature a team that could expose them, at least not until USC came into town.

It looked like the season’s floor had risen to 8-4. The ceiling, 10-2. Maybe even 11-1 if you could squint really hard.

Not only did I think they’d go into Minneapolis and pick up a win, I thought they’d do so in dominating fashion.

And then the game kicked off.

Nebraska was pushed around – bullied, in fact – against the Golden Gophers. Despite the score sitting at 7-6* Minnesota for over a quarter, it felt like the Gophers had extended their lead even though they hadn’t. The sacks piled up. The opportunities Nebraska missed on offense were getting worse by the play, culminating with Dylan Raiola’s overthrown pass to Dane Key on the first drive of the third quarter.

*Nebraska’s field goal that cut Minnesota’s lead to 7-6 came with 4:25 left in the first half. The touchdown pass from Drake Lindsey to Le’Meke Brockington that made it 14-6 came with 2:36 left in the third.

Archie Wilson punted the ball down to the 2-yard line and within nine plays, Minnesota had already crossed midfield. To make matters worse, they only needed to pick up one third-down conversion across those nine plays. It was death by a thousand paper cuts early in the drive; the Gophers never had a gain of fewer than three yards and no more than 12.

Matt Rhule’s defense had now been on the field for almost seven minutes. With 4:24 remaining in the third quarter, Nebraska took a timeout because they were tired and needed a rest.

Five plays later, the Gophers were in the end zone after a 20-yard touchdown pass capped off the 14-play, 98-yard drive that took 8:43 off the clock. The score was 14-6, but Minnesota might as well have been up by three scores. The game felt like it was over, even if all Nebraska needed was a touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie it up.

On their ensuing drive, Nebraska went three-and-out before Minnesota scored a touchdown to make it 21-6. A drive later, Nebraska ran six more plays and faced another fourth down. With 9:37 left in the game, trailing by 15 points, Matt Rhule chose to give the ball right back to the team that had scored touchdowns on their previous two drives. An eight-play, 62-yard drive ensued, another 4:23 ticking off the clock, before Minnesota knocked in a field goal. It’s not like I would have trusted the offense to pick up any points, but to punt down two scores that late in the game? Really?

Nebraska’s penultimate drive of the game finished on downs in Minnesota territory and the game ended on one final sack* for the road, the ninth of the game for the Gophers. Thus ended the most disheartening loss of the Matt Rhule era. Minnesota won by a final score of 24-6. Nebraska dropped to 5-2.

*The first half ended on a sack, as well. In fact, the final offensive play of all three quarters for Nebraska ended in sacks. This coming off the Maryland game, in which the final play of the first half for Nebraska’s offense ended with Dylan Raiola being sacked. All told, three of the past four halves have ended with Dylan Raiola on the ground.

And so, we’ve reached an interesting spot:

Do you believe in Nebraska?

Do you believe in Nebraska’s ability to find a way to mask their weaknesses against a schedule that features multiple teams that have been headaches* for the program?

*Understandable if you’re annoyed by using the word “headache” to describe what Iowa has been for Nebraska. Horror show is probably a more apt description.

Do you believe in the offensive line to protect the quarterback better? Hell, do you believe in the quarterback that took nine sacks across 54 offensive plays on Friday night to find better pocket awareness than he has across his 20 career starts? Do you believe in the offensive coordinator to lean on his running back that is (was?) putting together the finest season by a Nebraska back in over a decade?

On defense, do you believe in the pass rush to get to the quarterback when it’s third and medium, and the opposition has already picked up two first downs on the drive? Do you believe in their ability to avoid a penalty on third or fourth down? Do you believe in their ability to make a tackle or will they get shoved around, a one-yard run turning into four or five? Do you believe in the defense getting a stop when they need to?

Do you believe?

I’m done. Nebraska football has lost all benefit of the doubt.

Save me from the distractions of the week. If anything, Matt Rhule brought some of the noise upon himself, calling out how much more* needs to be spent on the roster. Going on Pat McAfee’s show and saying all sorts of positive things about Nebraska… while still leaving the door open for the vacant Penn State head coaching job.

*I agree, for the record, but Nebraska just lost to a team that spends less on their roster than Nebraska does.

Nebraska went into Minneapolis and got absolutely punked by a football team and program that’s not as good as the recent Minnesota teams Nebraska has faced.

The Gophers entered as a team that had struggled to run the football, with a freshman quarterback who had noticeable limitations. Their defense had taken a step back, allowing Power Four opponents to score 29.8 points per game. This version of Nebraska – the 2025 version, with an offense scoring 29.8* points per game against Power teams and one of the best pass defenses in the country – would continue to show proof of concept of how things have changed. Instead, they were outscored 17-0 in the second half and never came close to threatening.

*Coming into the matchup, Nebraska had scored exactly 119 points in their four games against Power opponents. Conversely, Minnesota came in having allowed exactly 119 points across four games against Power teams.

I’m done trusting this team.

I’m done trusting Nebraska until they can find a way to win games against teams that are actually good – in the final five games, I’d say USC is the only team that fits this bill – and/or beat a team that’s had continual success against them like Minnesota, whose winning streak is now up to six in a row, or Iowa, who are 9-1 in their last ten meetings.

I’m sick of watching Nebraska football take on a program like this – one that finishes the game and in the post-game press conference, mentions “physicality” or “culture” as reasons for the win, where all you can do is nod along and shrug. A loss where you can’t argue against it. Where the game starts, and within a few drives, you realize that everything was a house of cards; they weren’t overcoming anything or showing anything different. They were just getting by against lesser teams, before they played a team – a program – like Minnesota, who put them into a locker like they always do.

And we’re sure that won’t happen against any of the final five opponents?

Northwestern plays the exact type of football that has haunted the Nebraska program for years. They’d love to drag them down into the mud.

USC’s offense, littered with dumb mistakes in their loss to Notre Dame, still has the ability to score on any given play, from any spot on the field.

UCLA has won three games in a row this season and beat Nebraska a year ago.

Penn State showed toughness in its loss to Iowa and still has one of the most talented rosters in the sport.

And Iowa is Iowa.

They might find a win against one of those five teams, but anything more than that would surprise me at this point. As I see it, a 5-7 finish is more likely now than 7-5 or 8-4. And don’t even get me started on 9-3 or 10-2.

Nebraska faced a similar situation in 2024. Following the loss to UCLA at the start of November, the team had reached a breaking point. After a 5-1 start, they had lost three games in a row, the last one against the Bruins was easily the most unforgivable.

Changes were made. Dana Holgorsen joined the staff and was named offensive coordinator. Marcus Satterfield was re-assigned* to tight ends coach. Phil Snow was added as an additional set of eyes on the defensive staff. And while Nebraska only went 1-2 in its final three regular-season games, the operation looked a little better on offense against USC before exploding in the sixth win of the season against Wisconsin.

*Oddly enough, his position group might be the most impressive and consistent across the entire team this season!

Matt Rhule looked that moment directly in the eye and made a massive change. A change that was necessary. We’d never seen something like it in Lincoln.

That same week arrives, if a bit earlier, in 2025. There’s no obvious change to be made, unless you believe in firing the offensive line coach (no chance in hell) or benching the quarterback and rolling out a different type of offense (ditto). There’s no quick fix coming. The overall operation will just have to be better.

Can it be? Sure. Do I need to see it before I believe it?

Absolutely.

Agree or disagree, if you have a comment for Josh, send him an email: joshpeterson.huskermax@gmail.com.

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