ST. LOUIS — An overwhelming majority of registered voters don’t know who they’ll support in the Missouri gubernatorial race to succeed Governor Mike Parson. The statewide poll is released a little more than six weeks ahead of the August 6th Missouri primary.

The new Emerson College Polling/The Hill/Missouri Nexstar poll shows a tight, two-person race for the Republican nomination for Missouri governor, plus much more, from the presidential race to the issues of sports betting and abortion access. 

The Missouri Governor’s Race

The first thing that jumps out of the poll is the Republican Missouri Governor primary race. No candidate tops 25% among likely Republican voters.  46% are undecided,  double the top two candidates combined.

A poll finds 23% of voters support Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, 20% support Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe, and 6% support State Senator Bill Eigel.

Emerson College Polling’s Senior Director, Matt Taglia, says it looks like a two-person race to the finish between Ashcroft and Kehoe.

“Ashcroft is leading among younger voters.  Kehoe is leading with older voters.  If I’m a Republican primary candidate, that’s something I absolutely want to see.  These are high-likelihood, high-propensity voters, so that’s a very good sign for Kehoe’s campaign,” Taglia told Fox 2 News.

The full breakdown of support for candidates on the Republican ballot is as follows:

• Undecided – 45.8%
• John (Jay) R. Ashcroft – 22.5%
• Mike Kehoe – 19.6%
• Bill Eigel – 5.9%
• Robert J. Olson – 1.7%
• Chris Wright – 1.4%
• Amber Thomsen – 1.3%
• Darrell L. McClanahan III – 1.3%
• Jeremy Gundel – 0.4%
• Darren L. Grant – 0.1%

Biden vs. Trump

Ahead of next Thursday’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump, the poll points to a third straight election victory for Mr. Trump in Missouri. Mr. Biden’s statewide approval rating is just 32%.

Trump leads Biden by about 13% in a head-to-head matchup.  The lead expands to more than 15% in a five-candidate race with Robert Kennedy, Cornell West, and Jill Stein.   36% say Mr. Trump’s recent felony convictions in New York will have no impact on their vote and 33% say they are less likely to vote for him now.

“As things stand right now, this is not a competitive state for President Biden,” Taglia said.

Missouri Senate Race

He called Missouri’s U.S. Senate race between likely nominees, Republican incumbent Josh Hawley and Democrat Lucas Kunce, “Hawley’s race to lose”.  Hawley has a 9% lead.

The economy is the top issue for Missouri voters, with 34% abortion access is second, at 12%.  The 12% is significant and may impact the U.S. Senate race, according to Taglia.      

“Seeing abortion in second place, I think, says something.  There is the potential that it influences races further up the ballot,” he said.

Sports issues

The poll also looks at big sports issues. Voters polled are slightly in favor of legalized sports betting (38%–35%), which is also within the margin of error. Plus, 26% are undecided.

“I think that there’s some messaging work to do here if you’re on the side of passing sports betting in Missouri.  I don’t think folks necessarily know what all it entails but a lot of them are, in principle, supportive of the idea,” Taglia said.

Finally, amid talk of the Kansas City Chiefs and Kansas City Royals moving across the state line and into Kansas after voters shot down stadium measures in April, 46% say it’s “very important” and nearly 17% say it’s “somewhat important” (63% total) to keep the Chiefs in Missouri.   

When it comes to the Royals, 38% say “very important”, 20% ‘say’somewhat’ (58% total).    

Emerson College Polling, The Hill, and Nexstar Missouri conducted this poll. Review our methodology and data here. The surveys were conducted on June 17–19, 2024. The sample consisted of n = 1000 registered voters, with a credibility interval of +/-3%. The sample of likely Republican primary voters consists of a sample of 489, with a credibility interval of +/-4.4%.