They’re adjacent Minnesota congressional districts with suburban populations at their core. One features an Democratic incumbent with a well-stocked campaign account; the other is an open seat that not long ago was seen as Republican turf.

But only one has been on national watchlists for U.S. House races this year — and it’s the south-east metro 2nd Congressional District. There, Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is in pursuit of a fourth term.

Just across the Minnesota River in the western Twin Cities suburbs, Democratic state legislator Kelly Morrison is methodically marching toward joining the federal House delegation in the 3rd Congressional District, where she’s seen as favored over Republican Tad Jude. It has been a sleepy race by comparison.

In the 2nd, which runs from Eagan and South St. Paul down past Northfield, it’s a been another tug-of-war for Craig. She’s trying to hold off a stiff challenge from political newcomer Joe Teirab, a former federal prosecutor and ex-Marine. 

Katie Kendrick, who lives in Burnsville, said she doesn’t know much about Teirab but plans to vote for him.

“Angie’s been there for a while,” Kendrick said as she took a break from arranging Halloween decorations. “I think it’s time for a change.”

Kim Nutting, who lives in Eagan, said she’ll happily cast her ballot for Craig.

“She’s smart,” Nutting said. “I think she’s for the people.” 

Craig has the benefit of name recognition after having run four times already in the district. (She lost narrowly in 2016 to Republican Jason Lewis.) And she’s way ahead in the money race, which comes in handy for the ads that have been on air since late August and for get-out-the-vote efforts.

Fundraising reports out last week showed Craig has spent almost three times more than Teirab — about $5.3 million to nearly $1.9 million — and with substantially more left at her disposal for the final weeks.

The race has already had more advertising exposure than the U.S. Senate race, which is a statewide contest.

On Saturday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stopped by to campaign for Craig. Jeffries, of New York, is in line to become House speaker if Democrats can erase a narrow Republican edge in the chamber, which makes the Minnesota race that much more important to those prospects.

“We’ve got to make sure, certainly, that every single one of our frontline members, our 31 frontline members goes back to Congress, and Angie is in one of the toughest seats,” Jeffries said as he kicked off a door-knocking push in West St. Paul.

In the 3rd District, Morrison also has a yawning financial edge over Jude. Morrison is a state senator and doctor; Jude is a former state legislator, past county commissioner and retired judge.

Morrison had spent about $900,000 through the end of September, compared with $240,000 for Jude. But Morrison had more than $1.1 million available for the final stretch to Jude’s $58,000. Morrison began airing TV ads last week. 

Some voters said that race has flown under the radar.

“I guess there really hasn’t been a lot of news about those folks. We haven’t heard too much about them,” said Bloomington resident Susan Bongaarts who voted early for Morrison.

Open seat races tend to attract more attention than this one has, particularly in an area that sent a line of Republicans to Washington. That was until 2018, when Democrat Dean Phillips defeated a Republican incumbent and went on to cruise to two more terms. He opted against a bid for another term amid a short-lived run for the Democratic presidential nomination that ended in March.  

Roz Johnson, another Bloomington resident supporting Morrison, said she thinks Phillips helped change the district. New district boundaries set after the most-recent census also made it more favorable to Democrats.

“This area was 50-50 split when we moved here in the 80s, but it has been leaning more Democratic,” Johnson said as she took in a warm fall day in a riverside park.

Retired Carleton College political science professor Steven Schier said former President Donald Trump has a lot to do with the shift.

“The 3rd has always been a high-education, high-income district traditionally that was represented by moderate Republicans like Bill Frenzel and Erik Paulsen and Jim Ramstad,” Schier explained.  “But high-education, high-income people in this state, and nationally, have been trending in the Democratic direction.”

Stan Danielson, an 86-year-old who lives in Bloomington, said he voted for many Republicans over the years but now is exclusively backing Democrats.

“I’m not going to vote for Republicans because they are much too far right and I’m just afraid of them,” Danielson said.

Back across the river in the 2nd District, 30-year-old Nathan Schmidt voiced concern about the economy and border security. He plans to vote Republican up and down the ballot.

“The 2nd District does still have some more of those rural areas that lean heavily conservative,” Schmidt. “So, I think that kind of balances out some of the more left-leaning suburbs that are part of the 2nd District.”

Even so, Schmidt said he thinks Craig will win again.

Craig has had her closest races in presidential election years, losing narrowly in 2016 and winning by fewer than 3 percentage points in 2020. Two years ago, she won by about 5 percentage points.

The top of the ballot this year could also be instructive: Four years ago, Democrat Joe Biden won the district by the same margin he won statewide – about 7 percentage points.

Schier, who lives in the district, said despite the visible campaigning on both sides it no longer seems to be the intense battleground it once was.

“The 2nd District, I think, is a very good microcosm of the state as a whole because it has large rural areas that are deeply red,” he said, while noting the “inner-ring suburbs that are strongly blue and so it can, in many ways, be a bellwether for the state.”